The Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in Southern Portugal

Climate change projections point to increasing air temperature and reduced precipitation in southern Portugal, which would affect farming systems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in southern Portugal. These impacts were assessed by combining climate model data with a soil water balance model and a numerical model for the design of irrigation systems. Meteorological data from two weather stations were used along with three climate models (HadRM3P, HIRHAMh and HIRHAMhh; 2071–2100). The crop rotations studied included sugar beet–maize–tomato–wheat and sunflower–wheat–barley. Two adaptation measures were considered: (i) maintaining the current crop varieties; (ii) using new crop varieties. The results from the considered climate change scenarios indicated that the impacts of climate change on irrigation requirements depend on the adopted adaptation measures. On average, the seasonal irrigation requirements increased by 13–70% when new crop varieties were used and by −13 to 7% when the current crop varieties were maintained. The impacts of climate change on irrigation system design were considerable, with the design flow rate increasing by 5–24%.

Régime thermique en période de maturation du raisin dans le géoclimat viticole.

Mots clés :indice de fraîcheur des nuits, amplitude thermique, Système CCM Géoviticole, zonage, qualité. Key words: cool night index, thermal amplitude, MCC System for World Viticulture, zoning, quality. RESUME Le régime thermique en période de maturation du raisin est l?une des variables déterminantes de la coloration du raisin et de la richesse en arômes, anthocyanes et polyphénols des vins. L?objectif du travail est de caractériser le régime thermique, notamment la fraîcheur des nuits et l?amplitude thermique au cours de la maturation, au niveau du climat viticole mondial, sur une base des données de 100 régions viticoles dans 30 pays, obtenue par l?intermédiaire de l?Organisation Mondiale de la Météorologie - OMM. Plusieurs indices climatiques viticoles ont été calculés: l?Indice de Fraîcheur des Nuits ?IF (ºC), l?Indice Héliothermique de Huglin ?IH (ºC) et l?Indice de Sécheresse ?IS (mm) du Système de Classification Climatique Multicritères Géoviticole, et l?amplitude thermique moyenne en août et septembre Aa-s (ºC). Egalement, sur la période véraison-récolte ?v-r(moyenne des 30 jours précédant la date de récolte, estimée sur la base d?un Indice Héliothermique de HUGLIN égal à 1.900 - approximatif pour la maturation du Cabernet-Sauvignon): la fraîcheur des nuits (FNv -r), la température moyenne de l?air (Tv-r), la température maximale de l?air (Txv-r) et l?amplitude thermique (Av-r). Les résultats montrent que IH est corrélé avec Tv-r (r=0,79**) et avec Txv-r (r=0,80**). IH représente donc bien les conditions thermiques générales de la période de maturation en ce qui concerne la température moyenne et maximale de l?air. Mais IH n?est pas corrélé ni avec Aa-s ni avec Av-r. Par contre, IF est corrélé avec Aa-s (r=-0,70**) et FNv-r est corrélé avec Av-r (r=-0,69**). Cette corrélation doit justifier, en partie, l?usage assez courant de l?amplitude thermique comme indicateur de bonnes conditions thermiques de maturation pour les régions qui présentent des valeurs élevées. Mais ce raisonnement peut amener à des caractérisations erronées. Le travail met en évidence, également, ?importance de considérer le bilan hydrique des régions (IS) dans l?analyse du régime thermique sur la qualité du raisin. On peut onclure que pour avoir une bonne caractérisation du régime thermique en période de maturation il faut considérer la fraîcheur des nuits (IF étant un bon indicateur de FNv-r moyen des régions, avec un r=0,80**), caractérisation qui peut être améliorée avec l?information des températures maximales et de sur 11l?amplitude thermique en période de maturation du raisin. Les éléments présentés peuvent servir à améliorer les indices climatiques pour estimer le potentiel qualitatif du raisin des différentes régions viticoles, notamment en complément de IF. ABSTRACT The thermal conditions during the grape ripening period are important variables related to colour of the grapes, anthocyanins, polyphenols and flavour of the wine. The main purpose of this work was to characterise the thermal conditions, especially the night coolness and the thermal amplitude during maturation, in the geoclimate of the world vine culture. A database of 100 grape-growing regions of 30 countries obtained from the World Meteorology Organisation (WMO) was used. Some climatic indexes were calculated: Cool Night Index ?IF (°C), Huglin?s Heliothermal Index ?IH (°C) and Dryness Index ?IS (mm), from the Multicriteria Climatic Classification System for World Viticulture, and the thermal amplitude in August and September Aa-s (°C). Over véraison-harvest period ?v-r(mean of the 30 days before harvesting date, estimated on the basis of HUGLIN Heliothermal Index equal to 1,900 ? approximately value to ripen Cabernet-Sauvignon) similar indexes were obtained: the cool night (FNv-r), the mean air temperature (Tv-r), the maximal air temperature (Txv-r) and the thermal amplitude (Av-r). The results showed that IH is positively correlated with Tv-r (r=0.79**), Txv-r (r=0.80)and IF (r=0.67**). Therefore, IH represents well the general thermal conditions during maturation period, specially concerning the mean and the maximal air temperature. owever, IH was correlated neither with Aa-s nor to Av-r. IF was negatively correlated with Aa-s (r= -0.70**) and FNv-r was negatively correlated with Av-r (r=-0.69**). The correlation to some extent explains the current use of the thermal amplitude to predict good ripening thermal conditions for those regions that show high values. As here we have described, this thinking may give incorrect results. This work has also showed the importance to consider the water balance of the regions (IS) in the effect of the thermal conditions in grape quality. We conclude that the characterisation of the thermal conditions during the ripening period do need the cool night index (in this case, IFis a good index to provide the mean FNv-r of the regions, r=0,80**). Factors other than cool night which influence this characterisation are both maximal air temperature and thermal amplitude data. The elements presented in this work, in addition to IF , may improve the climatic indexes to be used to predict the qualitative potential of grapes from different regions.

Optical fiber laser induced fluorescence spectroscopy as a citrus canker diagnostic

Citrus canker is a serious disease caused by Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri bacteria, which infects citrus plants (Citrus spp.) leading to large economic losses in citrus production worldwide. In this work, laser induced fluorescence spectroscopy (LIF) was investigated as a diagnostic technique for citrus canker disease in citrus trees at an orchard using a portable optical fiber based spectrometer. For comparison we have applied LIF to leaves contaminated with citrus canker, citrus scab, citrus variegates chlorosis, and Huanglongbing (HLB, Greening). In order to reduce the noise in the data, we collected spectra from ten leaves with visual symptoms of diseases and from five healthy leaves per plant. This procedure is carried out in order to minimize the environmental effect on the spectrum (water and nutrient supply) of each plant. Our results show that this method presents a high sensitivity (similar to 90%), however it does present a low specificity (similar to 70%) for citrus canker diagnostic. We believe that such poor performance is due to the fact that the optical fiber collects light from only a small part of the leaf. Such results may be improved using the fluorescence imaging technique on the whole leaf. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America

Conversion to soy on the Amazonian agricultural frontier increases streamflow without affecting stormflow dynamics

Large-scale soy agriculture in the southern Brazilian Amazon now rivals deforestation for pasture as the region`s predominant form of land use change. Such landscape-level change can have substantial consequences for local and regional hydrology, but these effects remain relatively unstudied in this ecologically and economically important region. We examined how the conversion to soy agriculture influences water balances and stormflows using stream discharge (water yields) and the timing of discharge (stream hydrographs) in small (2.5-13.5 km2) forested and soy headwater watersheds in the Upper Xingu Watershed in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We monitored water yield for 1 year in three forested and four soy watersheds. Mean daily water yields were approximately four times higher in soy than forested watersheds, and soy watersheds showed greater seasonal variability in discharge. The contribution of stormflows to annual streamflow in all streams was low (< 13% of annual streamflow), and the contribution of stormflow to streamflow did not differ between land uses. If the increases in water yield observed in this study are typical, landscape-scale conversion to soy substantially alters water-balance, potentially altering the regional hydrology over large areas of the southern Amazon.

Implications of long-term land-use change for the hydrology and solute budgets of small catchments in Amazonia

The replacement of undisturbed tropical forest with cattle pasture has the potential to greatly modify the hydrology of small watersheds and the fluxes of solutes. We examined the fluxes of water, Cl(-), NO(3)(-)-N: SO(4)(2--)-S, NH(4)(+)-N, Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+) and Ca(2+) in different flow paths in similar to 1 ha catchments of undisturbed open tropical rainforest and a 20 year-old pasture established from forest in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon state of Rondonia. Storm flow discharge was 18% of incident rainfall in pasture, but only 1% in forest. Quickflow predominated over baseflow in both catchments and in both wet and dry seasons. In the pasture, groundwater and quickflow were important flow paths for the export of all solutes. In the forest, quickflow was important for NO(3)(-)-N export, but all other solutes were exported primarily by groundwater outflow. Both catchments were sinks for SO(4)(2-)-S and Ca(2+), and sources of Na(+). The pasture catchment also lost K(+) and Mg(2+) because of higher overland flow frequency and volume and to cattle excrement. These results show that forest clearing dramatically influences small watershed hydrology by increasing quickflow and water export to streams. They also indicate that tropical forest watersheds are highly conservative for most solutes but that pastures continue to lose important cations even decades after deforestation and pasture establishment. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cadmium telluride nanocrystals as luminescent sensitizers in flow analysis

A fully automated multipumping flow system (MPFS) using water-soluble CdTe quantum dots (QD) as sensitizers is proposed for the chemiluminometric determination of the anti-diabetic drugs gliclazide and glipizide in pharmaceutical formulations. The nanocrystals acted as enhancers of the weak CL emission produced upon oxidation of sulphite by Ce(IV) in acidic medium, thus improving sensitivity and expanding the dynamical analytical concentration range. By interacting with the QD, the two analytes prevented their sensitizing effect yielding a chemiluminescence quenching of the Ce(IV)-SO(3)(2-)CdTe QD system. The pulsed flow inherent to MPFS assured a fast and efficient mixing of all solutions inside the flow cell, circumventing the need for a reaction coil and facilitating the monitoring of the short-lived generated chemiluminescent species. QD crystal size, concentration and spectral region for measurement were investigated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of FAO Penman-Monteith and alternative methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration with missing data in Southern Ontario, Canada

Grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important agrometeorological parameter for climatological and hydrological studies, as well as for irrigation planning and management. There are several methods to estimate ETo, but their performance in different environments is diverse, since all of them have some empirical background. The FAO Penman-Monteith (FAD PM) method has been considered as a universal standard to estimate ETo for more than a decade. This method considers many parameters related to the evapotranspiration process: net radiation (Rn), air temperature (7), vapor pressure deficit (Delta e), and wind speed (U); and has presented very good results when compared to data from lysimeters Populated with short grass or alfalfa. In some conditions, the use of the FAO PM method is restricted by the lack of input variables. In these cases, when data are missing, the option is to calculate ETo by the FAD PM method using estimated input variables, as recommended by FAD Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Based on that, the objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the FAO PM method to estimate ETo when Rn, Delta e, and U data are missing, in Southern Ontario, Canada. Other alternative methods were also tested for the region: Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, and Thornthwaite. Data from 12 locations across Southern Ontario, Canada, were used to compare ETo estimated by the FAD PM method with a complete data set and with missing data. The alternative ETo equations were also tested and calibrated for each location. When relative humidity (RH) and U data were missing, the FAD PM method was still a very good option for estimating ETo for Southern Ontario, with RMSE smaller than 0.53 mm day(-1). For these cases, U data were replaced by the normal values for the region and Delta e was estimated from temperature data. The Priestley-Taylor method was also a good option for estimating ETo when U and Delta e data were missing, mainly when calibrated locally (RMSE = 0.40 mm day(-1)). When Rn was missing, the FAD PM method was not good enough for estimating ETo, with RMSE increasing to 0.79 mm day(-1). When only T data were available, adjusted Hargreaves and modified Thornthwaite methods were better options to estimate ETo than the FAO) PM method, since RMSEs from these methods, respectively 0.79 and 0.83 mm day(-1), were significantly smaller than that obtained by FAO PM (RMSE = 1.12 mm day(-1). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State

The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State Brazil. Water balances were carried out on a daily basis using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, for 165 sites, considering twelve sowings dates and available water capacity in the soil of 20, 40 and 60 mm. The net revenues were estimated with a probability of occurrence of 75%, later being spatialized to Piaui State. Cowpea irrigation was shown to economically viable for all sowing dates, irrespective of the available water capacity. Net revenues varied among several regions of the State, in function of the sowing date and available water capacity in the soil. Considering a planning strategy for Piaui State, sowing on February, I was shown to be most favorable, because it enabled higher net revenue values, covering larger areas of the State.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of seedless watermelon

The research was developed in Fortaleza, CE (latitude 3 degrees 43`S, longitude of 38 degrees 32`W and altitude of 19.5 m). It aimed to determine the Evapotranspiration and the crop coefficients for the different stadiums of seedless watermelon (Citrullus lanatus, Schrad), using the water balance method in drainage lysimeter. The experimental unit consisted of four located drainage lysimeter in an area of 600 m(2). The culture Evapotranspiration (ETc) was determined by the method of the water balance, in a volume of soil control with depth of 0.45 m, whose humidity was monitored by tensiometers. The reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated by the method of the class A pan. The crop coefficients were obtained from the rate between ETc and ETo in the different stages. The ETc presented growing values from the vegetative stage to the fruiting stage, dropping straight away in the mature stage. The maximum value of kc was observed in the fruiting stage.

Leaf area index estimation with MODIS reflectance time series and model inversion during full rotations of Eucalyptus plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Autonomic activity during human sleep as a function of time and sleep stage

While there is a developing understanding of the influence of sleep on cardiovascular autonomic activity in humans, there remain unresolved issues. In particular, the effect of time within the sleep period, independent of sleep stage, has not been investigated. Further, the influence of sleep on central sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity is uncertain because results using the major method applicable to humans, the low frequency (LF) component of heart rate Variability (HRV), have been contradictory, and because the method itself is open to criticism. Sleep and cardiac activity were measured in 14 young healthy subjects on three nights. Data was analysed in 2-min epochs. All epochs meeting specified criteria were identified, beginning 2 h before, until 7 h after, sleep onset. Epoch values were allocated to 30-min bins and during sleep were also classified into stage 2, slow wave sleep (SWS) and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. The measures of cardiac activity were heart irate (HR), blood pressure (BP), high frequency (HF) and LF components of HRV and pre-ejection period (PEP). During non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep autonomic balance shifted from sympathetic to parasympathetic dominance, although this appeared to be more because of a shift in parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) activity. Autonomic balance during REM was in general similar to wakefulness. For BP and the HF and LF components the change occurred abruptly at sleep onset and was then constant over time within each stage of sleep, indicating that any change in autonomic balance over the sleep period is a consequence of the changing distribution of sleep stages. Two variables, HR and PEP, did show time effects reflecting a circadian influence over HR and perhaps time asleep affecting PEP. While both the LF component and PEP showed changes consistent with reduced sympathetic tone during sleep, their pattern of change over time differed.

Engineering closure of an open pit gold operation in a semi-arid climate

Along with material characteristics and geometry, the climate in which a mine is located can have a dramatic effect on the appropriate options for rehabilitation. The paper outlines the setting, mining, milling and waste disposal at Kidston Gold Mine's open pit operations in the semi-arid climate of North Queensland, Australia, before focusing on the engineering aspects of the rehabilitation of Kidston. The mine took a holistic and proactive approach to rehabilitation, and was prepared to demonstrate a number of innovative approaches, which are described in the paper. Engineering issues that had to be addressed included the geotechnical stability and deformation of waste rock dumps, including a 240 m high in-pit dump: the construction and performance monitoring of a “store and release” cover over potentially acid forming mineralised waste rock; erosion from the side slopes of the waste rock dumps; the in-pit co-disposal of waste rock and thickened tailings; the geotechnical stability of the tailings dam wall; the potential for erosion of bare tailings; the water balance of the tailings dam; direct revegetation of the tailings; and the pit hydrology. The rehabilitation of the mine represents an important benchmark in mine site rehabilitation best practice, from which lessons applicable worldwide can be shared.

Sentidos que emergem do/circulam no trabalho docente na educação infantil

Este estudo focaliza a constituição do trabalho docente na Educação Infantil (EI), tomando como referência o cenário da EI articulado ao campo profissional, vinculado às especificidades da EI, na indissociabilidade do educar e do cuidar, no contexto de transformações do sistema educativo e da expansão da oferta da EI. Perspectiva compreender os sentidos que emergem do/circulam no trabalho docente na EI das auxiliares de creche e professoras que atuam com crianças de zero a três anos, quando mediadas por um processo de formação. É sustentado pelos pressupostos teórico-metodológicos bakhtinianos vinculados aos referenciais do trabalho docente e da formação no campo da educação infantil, com base numa configuração dialógica da compreensão. Articula essa ancoragem à pesquisa de abordagem qualitativa por meio dos procedimentos metodológicos de observação participante e entrevistas, tendo como campo de estudo a experiência de uma instituição de Educação Infantil. Os resultados demonstram tensionamentos entre formação continuada e vivência profissional, estendendo-se às profissionais docentes em situação funcional díspar diante da perspectiva pedagógica da indissociabilidade do educar e do cuidar. Os sentidos que emergiram e circularam, a partir das rodas de conversa propostas nesta pesquisa, abrangem a complexidade do trabalho docente na EI, configurado por lógicas hierárquicas no exercício da docência. Tais fundamentos incidem na diluição de um trabalho educativo pautado no compromisso pedagógico e na formação das crianças, pois, da forma como vêm sendo ampliadas e flexibilizadas as contratações, intensificam a fragilidade da função docente, no que tange à formação mínima exigida em lei para atuar na EI quanto na formação continuada.

Reconstituição das vazões naturais a jusante das pequenas centrais hidrelétricas Rio Bonito e Suíça : Rio Santa Maria da Vitória (ES)

O conhecimento do regime natural de rios é relevante, entre diversas razões, para avaliar o impacto antrópico em bacias hidrográficas. Desta forma, visa criar ferramentas que auxiliem no planejamento eficiente dos recursos hídricos. O rio Santa Maria da Vitória (ES) é crucial para o desenvolvimento socioeconômico da Região Metropolitana da Grande Vitória. Adicionalmente, diversos ecossistemas e comunidades agrícolas dependem deste rio. Sendo a geração de energia elétrica um dos usos mais significativos do rio Santa Maria da Vitória, através das Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas Rio Bonito e Suíça, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi buscar uma melhor compreensão da influência da operação destes empreendimentos na vazão natural deste rio. Além da análise das séries de vazões e de precipitações medidas em Santa Leopoldina, comparando o período anterior com o posterior à implantação das PCH`s, realizou-se a reconstituição das vazões naturais médias diárias e médias mensais a jusante das PCH`s, através da técnica de extensão MOVE.I (tipo 1) e com o auxílio da série de vazão medida na estação fluviométrica Marechal Floriano, localizada na bacia hidrográfica do rio Jucu. Os resultados obtidos, a partir dos dados monitorados na estação Santa Leopoldina, mostraram uma diminuição nas vazões mínimas com 7, 30 e 90 dias de duração para o período pós-regulado. Ainda, as vazões de permanência Q50, Q90 e Q95 e a vazão média de longa duração reconstituídas são menores que as vazões observadas em Santa Leopoldina. Além da presença das PCH`s, as alterações no uso e cobertura do solo da bacia podem ter influência sobre os resultados encontrados. As vazões em Santa Leopoldina, devido aos horários em que são realizadas as medições, podem não representar de forma confiável as oscilações a jusante das PCH`s. Consequentemente, faz-se necessário um monitoramento contínuo das vazões a jusante desses empreendimentos e recomenda-se que seja realizada uma nova reconstituição das vazões naturais do rio Santa Maria da Vitória, através do balanço hídrico dos reservatórios, utilizando os dados operativos das PCH`s.

Cenários de mudanças climáticas para a América do Sul : impacto no zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar

O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) através do seu Quarto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas Globais (IPCC-AR4), publicado em 2007, atribui as emissões de gases de efeito estufa como a principal causa do aumento médio das temperaturas e alerta para uma elevação entre 1,8 ºC e 6,4 ºC até 2100, podendo modificar assim a aptidão climática para as culturas agrícolas em diversas regiões do planeta. Diante disso, existe a necessidade de substituição dos combustíveis fósseis por fontes renováveis e limpas de energia, como o etanol. A cana-de-açúcar apresenta-se, portanto, como uma cultura estratégica na produção do etanol. O presente trabalho teve como objetivos: 1) avaliar o desempenho dos Modelos Climáticos Globais (MCGs) do IPCC-AR4 na simulação de dados climáticos de temperatura do ar e precipitação pluviométrica para o período anual e mensal; 2) elaborar o zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar para a América do Sul considerando o clima referência e o futuro para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 em função do cenário de emissão A1B considerado pessimista e que usa um equilíbrio entre todas as fontes de energia. Para a avaliação do desempenho dos MCGs, foram utilizados dados climáticos médios mensais observados de precipitação e temperatura do ar provenientes do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e dados simulados oriundos dos 22 MCGs do IPCC (cenário 20c3m) compreendidos entre o período de 1961-1990, além do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM que é a média da combinação dos dados de todos os modelos. O desempenho dos MCGs foi avaliado pelos índices estatísticos: desvio padrão, correlação, raiz quadrada da média do quadrado das diferenças centralizadas e o “bias” dos dados simulados com os observados, que foram representados no diagrama de Taylor. Para a etapa da elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático procedeu-se o cálculo dos balanços hídricos (referência e futuros) da cultura, pelo método de Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). Para o cenário referência, utilizaram-se dados das médias mensais da precipitação e temperatura provenientes do CRU, enquanto que para as projeções futuras, dados provenientes das anomalias do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080, que foram ajustados, obtendo-se assim as projeções futuras para cada período analisado. Baseado nos mapas temáticos reclassificados de deficiência hídrica anual, temperatura média anual, excedente hídrico anual e no índice de satisfação das necessidades de água (ISNA), realizou-se uma sobreposição dessas informações obtendo assim, os mapas finais do zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar. Posteriormente ao zoneamento, realizou-se a análise das transições (ganhos, perdas e persistências) entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura. Os resultados mostram que o Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para o período mensal apresenta o melhor desempenho entre os modelos analisados. As áreas inaptas correspondem a maior parte da América do Sul e uma expressiva transição entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura.