Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets

This paper studies the impact of belief elicitation on informational efficiency and individual behavior in experimental parimutuel betting markets. In one treatment, groups of eight participants, who possess a private signal about the eventual outcome, play a sequential betting game. The second treatment is identical, except that bettors are observed by eight other participants who submit incentivized beliefs about the winning probabilities of each outcome. In the third treatment, the same individuals make bets and assess the winning probabilities of the outcomes. Market probabilities more accurately reflect objective probabilities in the third than in the other two treatments. Submitting beliefs reduces the favorite-longshot bias and making bets improves the accuracy of elicited beliefs. A level-k framework provides some insights about why belief elicitation improves the capacity of betting markets to aggregate information. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Asymmetric information without common priors: an indirect evolutionary analysis of quantity competition

The common prior assumption justifies private beliefs as posterior probabilities when updating a common prior based on individual information. We dispose of the common prior assumption for a homogeneous oligopoly market with uncertain costs and firms entertaining arbitrary priors about other firms' cost-type. We show that true prior beliefs can not be evolutionarily stable when truly expected profit measures (reproductive) success.

Parimutuel betting under asymmetric information

This paper examines simple parimutuel betting games under asymmetric information, with particular attention to differences between markets in which bets are submitted simultaneously versus sequentially. In the simultaneous parimutuel betting market, all (symmetric and asymmetric) Bayesian-Nash equilibria are generically characterized as a function of the number of bettors and the quality of their private information. There always exists a separating equilibrium, in which all bettors follow their private signals. This equilibrium is unique if the number of bettors is sufficiently large. In the sequential framework, earlier bets have information externalities, because they may reveal private information of bettors. They also have payoff externalities, because they affect the betting odds. One effect of these externalities is that the separating equilibrium disappears if the number of betting periods is sufficiently large. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disinflation with labor market frictions

This paper studies disinflationary shocks in a non-linear New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions and moral hazard in the labor markets. Our focus is on understanding the wage formation process as well as welfare costs of disinflations in the presence of such labor market frictions.

The presence of imperfect information in labor markets imposes a lower bound on worker surplus that varies endogenously. Consequently equilibrium can take two forms depending on whether the no shirking condition is binding or not. We also evaluate both regimes from a welfare perspective when the economy is subject to a perfectly credible disinflationary shock.

Lead in rice: Analysis of baseline lead levels in market and field collected rice grains

In a large scale survey of rice grains from markets (13 countries) and fields (6 countries), a total of 1578 rice grain samples were analysed for lead. From the market collected samples, only 0.6% of the samples exceeded the Chinese and EU limit of 0.2 μg g− 1 lead in rice (when excluding samples collected from known contaminated/mine impacted regions). When evaluating the rice grain samples against the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) provisional total tolerable intake (PTTI) values for children and pregnant women, it was found that only people consuming large quantities of rice were at risk of exceeding the PTTI from rice alone. Furthermore, 6 field experiments were conducted to evaluate the proportion of the variation in lead concentration in rice grains due to genetics. A total of 4 of the 6 field experiments had significant differences between genotypes, but when the genotypes common across all six field sites were assessed, only 4% of the variation was explained by genotype, with 9.5% and 11% of the variation explained by the environment and genotype by environment interaction respectively. Further work is needed to identify the sources of lead contamination in rice, with detailed information obtained on the locations and environments where the rice is sampled, so that specific risk assessments can be performed.

Building Information Modelling Energy Performance Assessment on Domestic Dwellings: A Comparative Study

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is growing in pace, not only in design and construction stages, but also in the analysis of facilities throughout their life cycle. With this continued growth and utilisation of BIM processes, comes the possibility to adopt such procedures, to accurately measure the energy efficiency of buildings, to accurately estimate their energy usage. To this end, the aim of this research is to investigate if the introduction of BIM Energy Performance Assessment in the form of software analysis, provides accurate results, when compared with actual energy consumption recorded. Through selective sampling, three domestic case studies are scrutinised, with baseline figures taken from existing energy providers, the results scrutinised and compared with calculations provided from two separate BIM energy analysis software packages. Of the numerous software packages available, criterion sampling is used to select two of the most prominent platforms available on the market today. The two packages selected for scrutiny are Integrated Environmental Solutions - Virtual Environment (IES-VE) and Green Building Studio (GBS). The results indicate that IES-VE estimated the energy use in region of ±8% in two out of three case studies while GBS estimated usage approximately ±5%. The findings indicate that the introduction of BIM energy performance assessment, using proprietary software analysis, is a viable alternative to manual calculations of building energy use, mainly due to the accuracy and speed of assessing, even the most complex models. Given the surge in accurate and detailed BIM models and the importance placed on the continued monitoring and control of buildings energy use within today’s environmentally conscious society, this provides an alternative means by which to accurately assess a buildings energy usage, in a quick and cost effective manner.

Measuring non-use value of environmental goods using the contingent valuation method:problems of information and cognition and the application of cognitive questionnaire design methods

Much interest now focuses on the use of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to assess non-use value of environmental goods. The paper reviews recent literature and highlights particular problems of information provision and respondent knowledge, comprehension and cognition. These must be dealt with by economists in designing CVM surveys for eliciting non-use values. Cognitive questionnaire design methods are presented which invoke concepts from psychology and tools from cognitive survey design (focus groups and verbal reports) to reduce a complex environmnetal good into a meaningful commodity that can be valued by respondents in a contingent market. This process is illustrated with examples from the authors' own research valuing alternative afforestation programmes. -Authors

The direction of media influence: Real-estate news and the stock market

This paper uses a novel identification strategy to test the influence of news media on the stock market. Because the stock market does not impact the media coverage of the housing market, a relationship between real-estate news and shares of companies engaged in the housing market is attributable media influence. I find that the content of reporting exhibits a significant relationship with stock returns, and the amount of news with the number of trades. These relationships exist even after controlling for known risk factors, housing market performance and intra-week correlation. This finding is consistent with the function of the media as a source of information and sentiment in financial markets.

Road traffic information platform for energy and emissions savings

Apesar das recentes inovações tecnológicas, o setor dos transportes continua a exercer impactes significativos sobre a economia e o ambiente. Com efeito, o sucesso na redução das emissões neste setor tem sido inferior ao desejável. Isto deve-se a diferentes fatores como a dispersão urbana e a existência de diversos obstáculos à penetração no mercado de tecnologias mais limpas. Consequentemente, a estratégia “Europa 2020” evidencia a necessidade de melhorar a eficiência no uso das atuais infraestruturas rodoviárias. Neste contexto, surge como principal objetivo deste trabalho, a melhoria da compreensão de como uma escolha de rota adequada pode contribuir para a redução de emissões sob diferentes circunstâncias espaciais e temporais. Simultaneamente, pretende-se avaliar diferentes estratégias de gestão de tráfego, nomeadamente o seu potencial ao nível do desempenho e da eficiência energética e ambiental. A integração de métodos empíricos e analíticos para avaliação do impacto de diferentes estratégias de otimização de tráfego nas emissões de CO2 e de poluentes locais constitui uma das principais contribuições deste trabalho. Esta tese divide-se em duas componentes principais. A primeira, predominantemente empírica, baseou-se na utilização de veículos equipados com um dispositivo GPS data logger para recolha de dados de dinâmica de circulação necessários ao cálculo de emissões. Foram percorridos aproximadamente 13200 km em várias rotas com escalas e características distintas: área urbana (Aveiro), área metropolitana (Hampton Roads, VA) e um corredor interurbano (Porto-Aveiro). A segunda parte, predominantemente analítica, baseou-se na aplicação de uma plataforma integrada de simulação de tráfego e emissões. Com base nesta plataforma, foram desenvolvidas funções de desempenho associadas a vários segmentos das redes estudadas, que por sua vez foram aplicadas em modelos de alocação de tráfego. Os resultados de ambas as perspetivas demonstraram que o consumo de combustível e emissões podem ser significativamente minimizados através de escolhas apropriadas de rota e sistemas avançados de gestão de tráfego. Empiricamente demonstrou-se que a seleção de uma rota adequada pode contribuir para uma redução significativa de emissões. Foram identificadas reduções potenciais de emissões de CO2 até 25% e de poluentes locais até 60%. Através da aplicação de modelos de tráfego demonstrou-se que é possível reduzir significativamente os custos ambientais relacionados com o tráfego (até 30%), através da alteração da distribuição dos fluxos ao longo de um corredor com quatro rotas alternativas. Contudo, apesar dos resultados positivos relativamente ao potencial para a redução de emissões com base em seleções de rotas adequadas, foram identificadas algumas situações de compromisso e/ou condicionantes que devem ser consideradas em futuros sistemas de eco navegação. Entre essas condicionantes importa salientar que: i) a minimização de diferentes poluentes pode implicar diferentes estratégias de navegação, ii) a minimização da emissão de poluentes, frequentemente envolve a escolha de rotas urbanas (em áreas densamente povoadas), iii) para níveis mais elevados de penetração de dispositivos de eco-navegação, os impactos ambientais em todo o sistema podem ser maiores do que se os condutores fossem orientados por dispositivos tradicionais focados na minimização do tempo de viagem. Com este trabalho demonstrou-se que as estratégias de gestão de tráfego com o intuito da minimização das emissões de CO2 são compatíveis com a minimização do tempo de viagem. Por outro lado, a minimização de poluentes locais pode levar a um aumento considerável do tempo de viagem. No entanto, dada a tendência de redução nos fatores de emissão dos poluentes locais, é expectável que estes objetivos contraditórios tendam a ser minimizados a médio prazo. Afigura-se um elevado potencial de aplicação da metodologia desenvolvida, seja através da utilização de dispositivos móveis, sistemas de comunicação entre infraestruturas e veículos e outros sistemas avançados de gestão de tráfego.

U-TRACER® - the use of communication technology in higher education - an information visualization tool for the context of Portuguese public higher education

Information Visualization is gradually emerging to assist the representation and comprehension of large datasets about Higher Education Institutions, making the data more easily understood. The importance of gaining insights and knowledge regarding higher education institutions is little disputed. Within this knowledge, the emerging and urging area in need of a systematic understanding is the use of communication technologies, area that is having a transformative impact on educational practices worldwide. This study focused on the need to visually represent a dataset about how Portuguese Public Higher Education Institutions are using Communication Technologies as a support to teaching and learning processes. Project TRACER identified this need, regarding the Portuguese public higher education context, and carried out a national data collection. This study was developed within project TRACER, and worked with the dataset collected in order to conceptualize an information visualization tool U-TRACER®. The main goals of this study related to: conceptualization of the information visualization tool U-TRACER®, to represent the data collected by project TRACER; understand higher education decision makers perception of usefulness regarding the tool. The goals allowed us to contextualize the phenomenon of information visualization tools regarding higher education data, realizing the existing trends. The research undertaken was of qualitative nature, and followed the method of case study with four moments of data collection.The first moment regarded the conceptualization of the U-TRACER®, with two focus group sessions with Higher Education professionals, with the aim of defining the interaction features the U-TRACER® should offer. The second data collection moment involved the proposal of the graphical displays that would represent the dataset, which reading effectiveness was tested by end-users. The third moment involved the development of a usability test to the UTRACER ® performed by higher education professionals and which resulted in the proposal of improvements to the final prototype of the tool. The fourth moment of data collection involved conducting exploratory, semi-structured interviews, to the institutional decision makers regarding their perceived usefulness of the U-TRACER®. We consider that the results of this study contribute towards two moments of reflection. The challenges of involving end-users in the conceptualization of an information visualization tool; the relevance of effective visual displays for an effective communication of the data and information. The second relates to the reflection about how the higher education decision makers, stakeholders of the U-TRACER® tool, perceive usefulness of the tool, both for communicating their institutions data and for benchmarking exercises, as well as a support for decision processes. Also to reflect on the main concerns about opening up data about higher education institutions in a global market.

Enterprise architecture model: an approach proposition. A case study of information systems in the hospitality industry

This paper discusses the role of enterprise architecture representation, in the context of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) information systems, as an instrument for an organization to reflect on itself and develop its business strategies and respective alignment with Information Systems. The paper proposes a representation model of enterprise architecture, as a tool for recommending good practices, and it emerges from a case study undertaken in the context of and investigation on advantages and limitations of ERP systems in the hospitality industry. The proposed approach is also inspired on other academic or market propositions suitable for the objectives of the investigation. It consists on a set of items representing the steps that must be taken by top managers and IS managers.

Old conflicts, new rivals? Airline competition in the European market

Christoph Franz of Lufthansa recently identified Ryanair, easyJet, Air Berlin and Emirates as the company’s main competitors – gone are the days when it could benchmark itself against BA or Air France-KLM! This paper probes behind the headlines to assess the extent to which different airlines are in competition, using evidence from the UK and mainland European markets. The issue of route versus network competition is addressed. Many regulators have put an emphasis on the former whereas the latter, although less obvious, can be more relevant. For example, BA and American will cease to compete between London and Dallas Fort Worth if their alliance obtains anti-trust immunity but 80% of the passengers on this route are connecting at one or both ends and hence arguably belong to different markets (e.g. London-San Francisco, Zurich-Dallas, Edinburgh-New Orleans) which may be highly contested. The remaining 20% of local traffic is actually insufficient to support a single point to point service in its own right. Estimates are made of the seat capacity major airlines are offering to the local market as distinct from feeding other routes. On a sector such as Manchester–Amsterdam, 60% of KLM’s passengers are transferring at Schiphol as against only 1% of bmibaby’s. Thus although KLM operates 5 flights and 630 seats per day against bmibaby’s 2 flights and 298 seats, in the point to point market bmibaby offers more seats than KLM. The growth of the Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) means that competition increasingly needs to be viewed on city pair markets (e.g. London-Rome) rather than airport pair markets (e.g. Heathrow-Fiumicino). As the stronger LCCs drive out weaker rivals and mainline carriers retrench to their major hubs, some markets now have fewer direct options than existed prior to the low cost boom. Timings and frequencies are considered, in particular the extent to which services are a true alternative especially for business travellers. LCCs typically offer lower frequencies and more unsociable timings (e.g. late evening arrivals at remote airports) as they are more focused on providing the cheapest service rather than the most convenient schedule. Interesting findings on ‘monopoly’ services are presented (including alliances) - certain airlines have many more of these than others. Lufthansa has a significant number of sectors to itself whereas at the other extreme British Airways has direct competition on almost every route in its network. Ryanair and flybe have a higher proportion of monopoly routes than easyJet or Air Berlin. In the domestic US market it has become apparent since deregulation that better financial returns can come from dominating a large number of smaller markets rather than being heavily exposed in the major markets - which are hotly fought over. Regional niches that appear too thin for Ryanair to serve (with its all 189 seat 737-800 fleet) are identified. Fare comparisons in contrasting markets provide some insights to marketing and pricing strategies. Data sources used include OAG (schedules and capacity), AEA (traditional European airlines traffic by region), the UK CAA (airport, airline and route traffic plus survey information of passenger types) and ICAO (international route traffic and capacity by carrier). It is concluded that airlines often have different competitors depending on the context but in surprisingly many cases there are actually few or no direct substitutes. The competitive process set in train by deregulation of European air services in the 1990s is leading back to one of natural monopolies and oblique alternatives. It is the names of the main participants that have changed however!

VPPs information needs for effective operation in competitive electricity markets

The large increase of renewable energy sources and Distributed Generation (DG) of electricity gives place to the Virtual Power Producer (VPP) concept. VPPs may turn electricity generation by renewable sources valuable in electricity markets. Information availability and adequate decision-support tools are crucial for achieving VPPs’ goals. This involves information concerning associated producers and market operation. This paper presents ViProd, a simulation tool that allows simulating VPPs operation, focusing mainly in the information requirements for adequate decision making.

Market impact of international sporting and cultural events

We study market reaction to the announcements of the selected country hosting the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, the World Football Cup, the European Football Cup and World and Specialized Exhibitions. We generalize previous results analyzing a large number and different types of mega-events, evaluate the effects for winning and losing countries, investigate the determinants of the observed market reaction and control for the ex ante probability of a country being a successful bidder. Average abnormal returns measured at the announcement date and around the event are not significantly different from zero. Further, we find no evidence supporting that industries, that a priori were more likely to extract direct benefits from the event, observe positive significant effects. Yet, when we control for anticipation, the stock price reactions around the announcements are significant.