Sustainable improvement of water networks : to achieve best decisions for rehabilitation plans using advanced GIS and statistical techniques

Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn

Italia: La chiusura della Casa dell’Emigrante come spunto riflessione sui rientri degli emigrati italiani

In the literature on migration, as well as in social policies regarding this phenomenon, the situation of returning emigrants receives scant attention. This essay establishes an intricate connection between attitudes and policies that prevail in a country regarding emigration and those concerning immigration. The case of Italy provides a prime example for this as it once was a classical country of emigration, only to turn, in recent decades, into a country that appears highly attractive (and relatively accessible) to immigrants. The essay traces the pervasive ambiguity that characterizes this country’s attitudes towards emigration from the beginning of mass emigration shortly after the unification of Italy in 1868 to the emigration policies of the fascist regime of Mussolini and the post-World War II waves of emigration right through to the corresponding ambiguity concerning the status of immigrants in contemporary society, including the indifferent treatment of returning Italian emigrants who constitute a considerable numerical phenomenon. These reflections take their origin from the impending closure of a reception centre in Lazio, the Casa dell’Emigrante near Sant’Elia Fiumerapido, Province of Frosinone, ostensibly for financial reasons. This centre had been the only one of its kind in the whole of Italy dealing officially with the needs of repatriated Italians. It had assisted returning emigrants both with practical matters, such as negotiating the labyrinth of Italian bureaucracy , and with psychological implications of a return, which are often considerable given the time lag of experiences with current social realities and the frequently unrealistic expectations associated with the return. Questions of identity become highly acute in those circumstances. The threatened closure of the centre illustrates the unwillingness of the state to face up to the factual prevalence of migratory experiences in the country as a whole and as a core element of national history, experiences of migration in both directions. The statistics speak for themselves: of the 4.660.427 persons who left Italy between 1880 and 1950, 2.322.451 have returned, almost exactly 50%. To those have to be added 3.628.430 returnees of the 5.109.860 emigrants who left Italy between the end of World War II and 1976 for Europe alone. Attitudes towards people leaving changed ostensibly over time. In the first two decades after Unification parliament on the one hand wanted to show some concern over the fate of its citizens, not wanting to abandon those newly created citizens entirely to their own destiny, while on the other portraying their decisions to emigrate as expressions of individual liberty and responsibility and not necessitated by want and poverty. Emigrants had to prove, paradoxically that they had the requisite means to emigrate when in fact poverty was largely driving them to emigrate. To admit that publicly would have amounted to admission of economic and political failure made evident through emigration. In contrast to that Mussolini’s emigration policies not only enforced large population movements within the territory of Italy to balance unemployment between regions and particularly between North and South, but also declared it citizen’s duty to be ready to move also to the colonies, thereby ‘turning emigration as a sign of social crisis into a sign of national strength and the success of the country’s political agenda’ (Gaspari 2001, p. 34). The duplicity continued even after World War II when secret deals were done with the USA to allow a continuous flow of Italian immigrants and EU membership obviously further facilitated the departure of unemployed, impoverished Italians. With the growing prosperity of Italy the reversal of the direction of migration became more obvious. On the basis of empirical research conducted by one of the author on returning emigrants four types of motives for returning can be distinguished: 1. Return as a result of failure – particularly the emigrants who left during the 1950-1970 period usually had no linguistic preparation, and in any case the gap between the spoken and the written language is enormous with the latter often being insurmountable. This gives rise to nostalgic sentiments which motivates a return into an environment where language is familiar 2. Return as a means of preserving an identity – the life of emigrants often takes place within ghetto-like conditions where familiarity is being reproduced but under restricted conditions and hence not entirely authentic. The necessity for saving money permits only a partial entry into the host society and at the same time any accumulating savings add to the desire to return home where life can be lived fully again – or so it seems. 3. Return of investment – the impossibility to become fully part of another society often motivates migrants to accumulate not so much material wealth but new experiences and competences which they then aim to reinvest in their home country. 4. Return to retire – for many emigrants returning home becomes acute once they leave a productive occupation and feelings of estrangement build up, in conjunction with the efforts of having invested in building a house back home. All those motives are associated with a variety of difficulties on the actual return home because, above all, time in relation to the country of origin has been suspended for the emigrant and the encounter with the reality of that country reveals constant discrepancies and requires constant readjustment. This is where the need for assistance to returning emigrants arises. The fact that such an important centre of assistance has been closed is further confirmation of the still prevailing politics of ambiguity which nominally demand integration from nationals and non-nationals alike but deny the means of achieving this. Citizenship is not a natural result of nationality but requires the means for active participation in society. Furthermore, the experiences of returning immigrants provide important cues for the double ambivalence in which immigrants to Italy live between the demands made on them to integrate, the simultaneous threats of repatriation and the alienation from the immigrants’ home country which grows inexorably during the absence. The state can only regain its credibility by putting an end to this ambiguity and provide to returning emigrants, and immigrants alike, the means of reconstructing strong communal identities.

The importance of partnership factors and individual factors associated with absent or inconsistent condom use in heterosexuals: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES Decisions to use condoms are made within partnerships. We examined the associations between inconsistent or no condom use and individual and partnership characteristics. We also examined the relative importance of individual versus partnership factors. METHODS Cross-sectional study of heterosexual individuals enrolled from the sexually transmitted infections (STI) outpatient clinic in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, from May to August 2010. Participants completed a questionnaire about sexual behaviour with the last four partners in the preceding year. Participant and partnership factors associated with inconsistent or no condom use in steady and casual partnerships were identified. RESULTS 2144 individuals were included, reporting 6401 partnerships; 54.7% were female, the median age was 25 (IQR 22-30) years and 79.9% were Dutch. Inconsistent or no condom use occurred in 13.9% of 2387 steady partnerships and in 33.5% of 4014 casual partnerships. There was statistical evidence of associations between inconsistent condom use in steady partnerships and ethnic concordance, longer duration, higher number of sex acts, practising anal sex, and sex-related drug use. In casual partnerships, associations were found with having an older partner, ethnic concordance, longer duration, higher number of sex acts, anal sex, sex-related drug use, ongoing partnerships and concurrency. In multivariable models, partnership factors explained 50.9% of the variance in steady partnerships and 70.1% in casual partnerships compared with 10.5% and 15.4% respectively for individual factors. CONCLUSIONS Among heterosexual STI clinic attendees in Amsterdam, partnership factors are more important factors related with inconsistent condom use than characteristics of the individual.

How Preliminary Are Preliminary Decisions?

The present research focuses on the question of whether even a preliminary decision causes a confirmation bias in order to maintain the status quo and examines individual differences in consistency between the preliminary and final decision and biased information processing. Dispositional Need for Closure (NFC, Webster & Kruglanski, 1994) was expected to predict revision or maintenance of the preliminary decision (decision consistency) after additional information on the issue was searched for and evaluated. Participants higher on dispositional NFC were less likely to change their preliminary decision than participants lower on dispositional NFC. Furthermore, the effect of NFC on decision consistency was fully mediated by biased information evaluation following the preliminary decision.

Trade-offs between voice and silence: a qualitative exploration of oncology staff's decisions to speak up about safety concerns

BACKGROUND Research suggests that "silence", i.e., not voicing safety concerns, is common among health care professionals (HCPs). Speaking up about patient safety is vital to avoid errors reaching the patient and thus to prevent harm and also to improve a culture of teamwork and safety. The aim of our study was to explore factors that affect oncology staff's decision to voice safety concerns or to remain silent and to describe the trade-offs they make. METHODS In a qualitative interview study with 32 doctors and nurses from 7 oncology units we investigated motivations and barriers to speaking up towards co-workers and supervisors. An inductive thematic content analysis framework was applied to the transcripts. Based on the individual experiences of participants, we conceptualize the choice to voice concerns and the trade-offs involved. RESULTS Preventing patients from serious harm constitutes a strong motivation to speaking up but competes with anticipated negative outcomes. Decisions whether and how to voice concerns involved complex considerations and trade-offs. Many respondents reflected on whether the level of risk for a patient "justifies" the costs of speaking up. Various barriers for voicing concerns were reported, e.g., damaging relationships. Contextual factors, such as the presence of patients and co-workers in the alarming situation, affect the likelihood of anticipated negative outcomes. Speaking up to well-known co-workers was described as considerably easier whereas "not knowing the actor well" increases risks and potential costs of speaking up. CONCLUSIONS While doctors and nurses felt strong obligation to prevent errors reaching individual patients, they were not engaged in voicing concerns beyond this immediacy. Our results offer in-depth insight into fears and conditions conducive of silence and voicing and can be used for educational interventions and leader reinforcement.

Analysis of hand kinematics reveals inter-individual differences in intertemporal decision dynamics

During intertemporal decisions, the preference for smaller, sooner reward over larger-delayed rewards (temporal discounting, TD) exhibits substantial inter-subject variability; however, it is currently unclear what are the mechanisms underlying this apparently idiosyncratic behavior. To answer this question, here we recorded and analyzed mouse movement kinematics during intertemporal choices in a large sample of participants (N = 86). Results revealed a specific pattern of decision dynamics associated with the selection of “immediate” versus “delayed” response alternatives, which well discriminated between a “discounter” versus a “farsighted” behavior—thus representing a reliable behavioral marker of TD preferences. By fitting the Drift Diffusion Model to the data, we showed that differences between discounter and farsighted subjects could be explained in terms of different model parameterizations, corresponding to the use of different choice mechanisms in the two groups. While farsighted subjects were biased toward the “delayed” option, discounter subjects were not correspondingly biased toward the “immediate” option. Rather, as shown by the dynamics of evidence accumulation over time, their behavior was characterized by high choice uncertainty.

The Value of Waiting: Foreign Direct Investment with Uncertainty and Imperfect Local Knowledge

This paper examines the role of uncertainty and imperfect local knowledge in foreign direct investment. The main idea comes from the literature on investment under uncertainty, such as Pindyck (1991) and Dixit and Pindyck (1994). We empirically test .the value of waiting. with a dataset on foreign direct investment (FDI). Many factors (e.g., political and economic regulations) as well as uncertainty and the risks due to imperfect local knowledge, determine the attractiveness of FDI. The uncertainty and irreversibility of FDI links the time interval between permission and actual execution of such FDI with explanatory variables, including information on foreign (home) countries and domestic industries. Common factors, such as regulatory change and external shocks, may affect the uncertainty when foreign investors make irreversible FDI decisions. We derive testable hypotheses from models of investment under uncertainty to determine those possible factors that induce delays in FDI, using Korean data over 1962 to 2001.

How health care delay and avoidance decisions are affected by finances and health insurance

Objective. To identify how an individual's finances and health insurance coverage affects their decision whether to avoid or delay medical care. Methods. Secondary data analysis of The Effects of Financial and Insurance Considerations on Health Care Utilization 2007 telephone survey data. Study inclusion criteria. 18 years old, Harris County resident, and had a need for medical care within the past year. Post weighing was done to correct for non-response bias. Results. Survey decision makers were predominately minorities (60%), Female (70%), and insured (71%). Ninety-two percent of participants sought care when needed, however, of this population 39% delayed medical care. Fifty-six percent of participants who delayed medical care sought care in the Doctor's office. For those who replied "Yes" to considering health insurance and finances in deciding to avoid medical care, 61% stated that they were confused about their insurance coverage as the explanation why. Fifty-five percent of Respondents indicated that delaying medical care was due to not knowing whether medical care was necessary. Conclusion. Additional research needs to be conducted to examine the relationship between onset of medical symptoms and final medical diagnosis to identify whether survey participants who delayed or avoided medical care actions were appropriate responses to their initial medical symptoms and final diagnosis. ^

Disciplining Investment Incentives: A Lost Cause?

An E15 Initiative think piece: Investment incentives rank among the most important policy instruments governments employ to influence the locational decisions of multinational firms. In the wake of the recent increase in locational competition and the growing impact of investment incentives and support measures for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the need for enhanced disciplines on investment incentives has gained political and academic salience. This think piece explores the evolution of investment incentives from a development and rule-making perspective. It summarises the existing literature and examines current practices and recent trends in FDI flows and the use of various investment incentives. This is followed by a discussion of the reasons for the observed stalemate in attempts at disciplinary rule-making. The paper concludes by putting forth recommendations for data gathering and transparency that could further the move toward improved global governance founded on the increasing complementarities of trade, investment, and competition law and policy as the core pillars of a more open, inclusive, and just world economy.

Why do oil importers diversify their import sources politically? : evidence from U.S. firm-level data

International politics affects oil trade. But why? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine what kinds of firms are more responsive to change in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To test this hold-up risk hypothesis, we investigate heterogeneity in responses by matching transaction-level import data with firm-level worldwide reserves. Our results show that long-run oil import decisions are indeed more elastic for firms with oil reserves overseas than those without, although the reverse is true in the short run. We interpret this empirical regularity as that while firms trade in the spot market can adjust their imports immediately, vertically-integrated firms with investment overseas tend to commit to term contracts in the short run even though they are more responsive to changes in international politics in the long run.

Greenfield shopping center development. The integration between environmental features, building design and investment analysis at the decision making stage

The Shopping centre is a long term investment in which Greenfield development decisions are often taken based on risks analysis regarding construction costs, location, competition, market and an expected DCF. Furthermore, integration between the building design, project planning, operational costs and investment analysis is not entirely considered by the investor at the decision making stage. The absence of such information tends to produce certain negative impacts on the future running costs and annual maintenance of the building, especially on energy demand and other occupancy expenses paid by the tenants to the landlord. From the investor´s point of view, this blind spot in strategy development will possibly decrease their profit margin as changes in the occupancy expenses[ ] have a direct outcome on the profit margin. In order to try to reduce some higher operating cost components such as energy use and other utility savings as well as their CO2 emissions, quite a few income properties worldwide have some type of environmental label such as BREEAM and LEED. The drawback identified in this labelling is that usually the investments required to get an ecolabel are high and the investor finds no direct evidence that it increases market value. However there is research on certified commercial properties (especially offices) that shows better performance in terms of occupancy rate and rental cost (Warren-Myers, 2012). Additionally, Sayce (2013) says that the certification only provides a quick reference point i.e. the lack of a certificate does not indicate that a building is not sustainable or efficient. Based on the issues described above, this research compares important components of the development stages such as investments costs, concept/ strategy development as well as the current investor income and property value. The subjects for this analysis are a shopping centre designed with passive cooling/bioclimatic strategies evaluated at the decision making stage, a certified regional shopping centre and a non-certified standard regional shopping centre. Moreover, the proposal intends to provide decision makers with some tools for linking green design features to the investment analysis in order to optimize the decision making process when looking into cost savings and design quality.

A Sound Investment for Employees and Their Employers: Retirement Planning, Reinvented

Offering competitive health and wellness benefit programs is ever challenging for companies, as industry leaders continually devise ways to innovate and deliver high-value programs to attract and retain employees. Financial stability is a form of wellness, and yet companies offer limited finance-related benefit offerings. Employees are commonly given access to retirement savings plans and college savings plans, and yet employers do not typically incorporate educational components into benefit programs. Research presented in this paper examines the financial issues impacting the lives of young workers in the United States and makes the case for a new recruitment and retention tool: a dynamic, practical benefit program designed to engage employees in their financial planning early and empower them to make informed decisions.

Contribution of individual to collective brands

Traditionally, literature estimates the equity of a brand or its extension but it pays little attention to collective brand equity even though collective branding is increasingly used to differentiate the homogenous products of different firms or organizations. We propose an approach that estimates the incremental effect of individual brands (or the contribution of individual brands) on collective brand equity through the various stages of a consumer hierarchical buying choice process in which decisions are nested: “whether to buy”, “what collective brand to buy” and “what individual brand to buy”. This proposal follows the approach of the Random Utility Theory, and it is theoretically argued through the Associative Networks Theory and the cybernetic model of decision making. The empirical analysis carried out in the area of collective brands in Spanish tourism finds a three-stage hierarchical sequence, and estimates the contribution of individual brands to the equity of the collective brands of “Sun, Sea and Sand” and of “World Heritage Cities”.

The Impact of BIM on the Distribution of Cost and Return on Investment in UK Construction Projects

It has been widely documented that when Building Information Modelling (BIM) is used, there is a shift in effort to the design phase. Little investigation into the impact of this shift in effort has been done and how it impacts on costs. It can be difficult to justify the increased expenditure on BIM in a market that is heavily driven by costs. There are currently studies attempting to quantify the return on investment (ROI) for BIM for which these returns can be seen to balance out the shift in efforts and costs to the design phase. The studies however quantify the ROI based on the individual stakeholder’s investment without consideration for the impact that the use of BIM from their project partners may have on their own profitability. In this study, a questionnaire investigated opinions and experience of construction professionals, representing clients, consultants, designers and contractors, to determine fluctuations in costs by their magnitude and when they occur. These factors were examined more closely by interviewing senior members representing each of the stakeholder categories and comparing their experience in using BIM within environments where their project partners were also using BIM and when they were not. This determined the differences in how the use and the investment in BIM impacts on others and how costs are redistributed. This redistribution is not just through time but also between stakeholders and categories of costs. Some of these cost fluctuations and how the cost of BIM is currently financed are also highlighted in several case studies. The results show that the current distribution of costs set for traditional 2D delivery is hindering the potential success of BIM. There is also evidence that stakeholders who don’t use BIM may benefit financially from the BIM use of others and that collaborative BIM is significantly different to the use of ‘lonely’ BIM in terms of benefits and profitability.

Developmental Activities That Lead to Dropout and Investment in Sport

Background: Studies suggest that expert performance in sport is the result of long-term engagement in a highly specialized form of training termed deliberate practice. The relationship between accumulated deliberate practice and performance predicts that those who begin deliberate practice at a young age accumulate more practice hours over time and would, therefore, have a significant performance advantage. However, qualitative studies have shown that a large amount of sport-specific practice at a young age may lead to negative consequences, such as dropout, and is not necessarily the only path to expert performance in sport. Studies have yet to investigate the activity context, such as the amount of early sport participation, deliberate play and deliberate practice within which dropout occurs. Purpose: To determine whether the nature and amount of childhood-organized sport, deliberate play and deliberate practice participation influence athletes' subsequent decisions to drop out or invest in organized sport. It was hypothesized that young athletes who drop out will have sampled fewer sports, spent less time in deliberate play activities and spent more time in deliberate practice activities during childhood sport involvement. Participants: The parents of eight current, high-level, male, minor ice hockey players formed an active group. The parents of four high-level, male, minor ice hockey players who had recently withdrawn from competitive hockey formed a dropout group. Data collection: Parents completed a structured retrospective survey designed to assess their sons' involvement in organized sport, deliberate play and deliberate practice activities from ages 6 to 13. Data analysis: A complete data-set was available for ages 6 through 13, resulting in a longitudinal data-set spanning eight years. This eight-year range was divided into three levels of development corresponding to the players' progress through the youth ice hockey system. Level one encompassed ages 6–9, level two included ages 10–11 and level three covered ages 12–13. Descriptive statistics were used to report the ages at which the active and dropout players first engaged in select hockey activities. ANOVA with repeated measures across the three levels of development was used to compare the number of sports the active and dropout players were involved in outside of hockey, the number of hours spent in these sports, and involvement in various hockey-related activities. Findings: Results indicated that both the active and dropout players enjoyed a diverse and playful introduction to sport. Furthermore, the active and dropout players invested similar amounts of time in organized hockey games, organized hockey practices, specialized hockey training activities (e.g. hockey camps) and hockey play. However, analysis revealed that the dropout players began off-ice training at a younger age and invested significantly more hours/year in off-ice training at ages 12–13, indicating that engaging in off-ice training activities at a younger age may have negative implications for long-term ice hockey participation. Conclusion: These results are consistent with previous research that has found that early diversification does not hinder sport-specific skill development and it may, in fact, be preferable to early specialization. The active and dropout players differed in one important aspect of deliberate practice: off-ice training activities. The dropout players began off-ice training at a younger age, and participated in more off-ice training at ages 12 and 13 than their active counterparts. This indicates a form of early specialization and supports the postulate that early involvement in practice activities that are not enjoyable may ultimately undermine the intrinsic motivation to continue in sport. Youth sport programs should not focus on developing athletic fitness through intense and routine training, but rather on sport-specific practice, games and play activities that foster fun and enjoyment.