Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

O papel dos quintais urbanos na segurança alimentar, bem estar e conservação da biodiversidade

Residential homegardens have environmental and social roles in the urban environment. These green spaces can potentially minimize the impacts caused by the growth of cities, being an alternative to connect fragmented areas or offer refuge to wildlife and therefore support the conservation of biodiversity. In addition, the homegardens demonstrate a leading role in increasing human well-being by promoting socialization opportunities, contact with nature, local culture as well as improvements in food security for the urban families. Nevertheless, it is still unclear what specific characteristics of homegardens can act effectively in the conservation of the biodiversity, as well as in the construction of food security and well being of the homegardeners and their families. The first chapter of this thesis analyzed the diversity of plant species (native and exotic) and assessed the contribution of different types of urban gardens (ornamental and forest gardens alike) in the presence of wildlife such as birds, monkeys and lizards. In the second chapter we evaluated the contribution of those gardens to the welfare and food security of their owners. In order to do this, 41 gardens were visited in Pium, a southern coastal town in the northeastern Brazil, which also happens to be in a periurban region undergoing rapid urban expansion and pressure from the real estate market. We surveyed the planned biodiversity and fauna associated with homegardens. The data related to food security and welfare were sampled through interviews with the person in charge of taking care of the gardens. These interviews covered issues on the supply of food from the garden and absence of chemical products, as well as aspects of the GNH indicator (Gross National Happiness). The results showed that these homegardens generally contribute little to the maintenance of native plant species (native species = 29/ total = 187). From its main features, the gardens were classified as ornamental, forest gardens and forest farms. These groups had a different effect on the presence of the animals studied and the last two contained most of the sampled native species. The diversity of plants and trees was a good predictor of the presence of birds and monkeys. Thus, the contribution of yards for the conservation of biodiversity depends on the type of garden: some even can have negative effects on conservation. These results can direct new approaches to detailed understanding of gardens and also of public policies applied to urban planning. The results of the second chapter showed that the two types of forest gardens contributed to household food security, for providing food and medicinal herbs, which mostly did not have pesticides and chemical 12 fertilizers. But the three groups of gardens are important components for the well being of their stakeholders. Gardens help promote the transmission of knowledge on agriculture, socialization, contact with nature and bring up feelings related to peace and harmony. Thus, forest gardens can be considered important means to get through public projects and policies designed to encourage biodiversity and promote food security and well-being in urban areas

Energy efficiency in the Chinese provinces: a fixed effects stochastic frontier spatial Durbin error panel analysis

Energy efficiency improvement has been a key objective of China’s long-term energy policy. In this paper, we derive single-factor technical energy efficiency (abbreviated as energy efficiency) in China from multi-factor efficiency estimated by means of a translog production function and a stochastic frontier model on the basis of panel data on 29 Chinese provinces over the period 2003–2011. We find that average energy efficiency has been increasing over the research period and that the provinces with the highest energy efficiency are at the east coast and the ones with the lowest in the west, with an intermediate corridor in between. In the analysis of the determinants of energy efficiency by means of a spatial Durbin error model both factors in the own province and in first-order neighboring provinces are considered. Per capita income in the own province has a positive effect. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and population density in the own province and in neighboring provinces have positive effects, whereas the share of state-owned enterprises in Gross Provincial Product in the own province and in neighboring provinces has negative effects. From the analysis it follows that inflow of foreign direct investment and reform of state-owned enterprises are important policy handles.

A Sustainable Century? Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000

This chapter traces the long-run development of Genuine Savings (GS) using a panel of eleven countries during the twentieth century. This panel covers a number of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) as well as a set of resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). These countries represent approximately 50 percent of the world’s output in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1950, and include large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, thus allowing us to compare their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, we find evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two World Wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks. Also, we found striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.

Evaluating the efficiency of community-based HIV testing and counseling strategies in sub-Saharan Africa

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Discrete-event Simulation and Optimization to Improve the Performance of a Healthcare System

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Análise dos impactos do PAC sobre o crescimento do PIB a preços correntes

O Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC) abrange uma série de medidas de caráter econômico, e teve como finalidade promover a retomada dos investimentos em setores estratégicos da economia. Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal comparar um período sem o programa (1994-2006) com o período em que foi implantado o PAC (2007-2013). Assim, pode-se verificar que o crescimento da economia brasileira, medido através do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) a preços correntes, foi influenciado pelos investimentos ocorridos através do programa, mesmo que esse intervalo seja marcado por uma grande crise, em 2008. Pois, como apontam os resultados obtidos desse estudo, no intervalo 2007-2013 as taxas médias de crescimento do PIB, Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo (FBCF) e Utilização da Capacidade Instalada (UCI) são maiores do que as do intervalo 1994- 2006.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Urban dynamics evaluation of Envigado city

This article presents the methodological conceptualization and the main results of a System Dynamics model, which main objective is to support the housing policies in the city of Envigado -- The used methodology developed a scenario-based model to emulate the approximate evolution of the housing demand and supply for the city, using a scenario of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a housing authorization strategy as input -- Diverse results were obtained, for instance it was found that due to the soil availability, the housing supply reaches the saturation point between 2040 and 2046 -- Finally this article could be considered as an example of how academic tools such as System Dynamics can be used by decisions makers in the government

Long-term relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Latin America: an empirical assessment using panel data

The main objetive of this research is to evaluate the long term relationship between energy consumption and GDP for some Latin American countries in the period 1980-2009 -- The estimation has been done through the non-stationary panel approach, using the production function in order to control other sources of GDP variation, such as capital and labor -- In addition to this, a panel unit root tests are used in order to identify the non-stationarity of these variables, followed by the application of panel cointegration test proposed by Pedroni (2004) to avoid a spurious regression (Entorf, 1997; Kao, 1999)

Avances en las relaciones entre Colombia y los Emiratos Árabes Unidos y sus contextos económico, social, diplomático y político

En el escenario global cambiante en el que los poderes económico y político se redistribuyen desde los países tradicionales de Occidente hacia economías de rápido crecimiento, sobre todo de Asia y África, se hace indispensable el establecimiento de nuevas relaciones con países distantes y con diferencias políticas y culturales sustanciales -- Este artículo presenta una revisión sistemática de la literatura existente sobre diplomacia comercial como herramienta usada por los gobiernos para conseguir dicho acercamiento, en el que por medios políticos se busca alcanzar beneficios económicos -- Se analiza el caso particular de Colombia y Emiratos Árabes Unidos (EAU), que reactivaron sus relaciones diplomáticas desde 2009; además, se revisa el contexto del país árabe al tener en cuenta el escenario político, económico, social y diplomático y mediante la exposición de las características que lo hacen atractivo para Colombia; también se presentan las cifras de comercio bilateral, inversión y turismo y su evolución luego de los acercamientos diplomáticos, con el fin de ilustrar el efecto dinamizador que tiene la diplomacia comercial sobre las relaciones comerciales bilaterales y de identificar puntos de oportunidad para Colombia, como el reforzamiento de las relaciones con los EAU como puerta de entrada hacia los demás países de la región del Consejo de Cooperación del Golfo (CCG)

Influencia de las horas trabajadas por un empleado en su productividad

En este artículo se propone establecer la influencia de las horas trabajadas en la productividad de los empleados en Colombia -- Para esto se realizó una revisión de la literatura acerca de la productividad laboral, se recurrió a investigaciones realizadas por Organizaciones reconocidas, se consultaron casos de éxito en otros países donde se ha implementado la reducción de la jornada laboral, y se aplicaron encuestas en empresas de la ciudad de Medellín -- Como resultado se concluye que las mejoras en la productividad laboral no dependen de un único factor (reducción de las horas de trabajo), sino también de otros factores como la tecnología, innovación, niveles de educación, entre otros, en los cuales Colombia, aunque viene haciendo un esfuerzo importante para desarrollarlos, debe trabajar más en ellos para lograr mayores fortalezas y eficiencias

Riesgo sistémico, concentración y tamaño: Caso del sistema bancario colombiano

El presente documento tiene como propósito establecer en qué medida la concentración y el tamaño de la banca comercial puede afectar, si es que se da, la exposición de riesgo en el sistema bancario colombiano en el periodo de 1995 – 2014 -- Para tal fin, se siguió la metodología de Chumacero y Langon (2001) y Barro (2011), la cual realiza un modelo de serie de tiempo, tomando la razón entre cartera total y cartera vencida del total de los bancos, como variable proxy que mide el riesgo; así mismo, el indicador Herfindahl - Hirschman que determina el nivel de concentración, finalmente, con la razón entre activos de la banca como porcentaje del PIB -- El resultado obtenido describe que para el caso de la concentración, muestra un coeficiente menor a cero, que soportaría la idea de que la competencia se daría en riesgo ofertado en el mercado bancario colombiano; el tamaño por su parte, su coeficiente registra ser mayor que cero, soportando la existencia de bancos demasiado grandes para quebrar

La influencia de la religión en la formación de la nación, estudio de caso: el budismo en Bután

El Reino de Bután es el único Estado de la cordillera del Himalaya cuya población es en su mayoría practicante del Budismo Mahayana Tántrico y cuyo desempeño tanto en la arena internacional como en su administración interna está estrechamente vinculado con los valores y principios budistas de reciprocidad, felicidad, solidaridad, vida familiar, cooperación, entre otros. Ejemplo de esto es la creación del Índice de Felicidad Nacional Bruta y la iniciativa del Nuevo Paradigma de Desarrollo. El presente artículo analiza los factores nacionales fundamentales que han permitido el desarrollo de la nación hacia las mencionadas políticas; y explica la influencia del Budismo en la formación de la Nación butanesa, para lo cual se hace un análisis cualitativo de fuentes, biografías, documentos oficiales y encuestas nacionales. Lo anterior permitirá explicar la estrecha relación ente el budismo y la nación butanesa actual, así como la importancia del Nuevo Paradigma del Desarrollo.