Policy making in divided government. A pivotal actors model with party discipline

This article presents a formal model of policy decision-making in an institutional framework of separation of powers in which the main actors are pivotal political parties with voting discipline. The basic model previously developed from pivotal politics theory for the analysis of the United States lawmaking is here modified to account for policy outcomes and institutional performances in other presidential regimes, especially in Latin America. Legislators' party indiscipline at voting and multi-partism appear as favorable conditions to reduce the size of the equilibrium set containing collectively inefficient outcomes, while a two-party system with strong party discipline is most prone to produce 'gridlock', that is, stability of socially inefficient policies. The article provides a framework for analysis which can induce significant revisions of empirical data, especially regarding the effects of situations of (newly defined) unified and divided government, different decision rules, the number of parties and their discipline. These implications should be testable and may inspire future analytical and empirical work.

State Government E85 Use Plan filed December 31, 2007

The State Government E85 Use Plan was mandated by Culver Executive Order 3 and was required to be submitted to the Governor’s Office December 31, 2007. The plan makes policy recommendations governing the use of E85 fuel by state government, the reporting of E85 fuel sales statewide, and establishes a task force to discuss biodiesel use for state government, local government, and private industry and make recommendations.

Fiscal decentralization policies and sub-national government debt in evolving federations

As part of a process of democratization, many countries spanning Europe, Latin Amertica, Africa, and Asia are reorganizing their governments bydevolving fiscal responsibility and authority to newly empowered regionaland local governments. Although decentralization in each country proceedsdifferently, a common element tends to be an initially heavy relianceon central government grants to fund regional spending. We develop atheoretical model of regional borrowing decisions in which the incentivesfor regional borrowing depend crucially on how the regions expect thefederal system of finance to evolve. We examine the implications of themodel using data on Spanish regions for the period 1984-1995 and findevidence that regions may be borrowing inefficiently in response toincentives imbedded in the Spanish system of fiscal decentralization.

Government spending and re-election: Quasi-experimental evidence from Brazilian municipalities

Does additional government spending improve the electoral chances of incumbent politicalparties? This paper provides the first quasi-experimental evidence on this question. Our researchdesign exploits discontinuities in federal funding to local governments in Brazil around severalpopulation cutoffs over the period 1982-1985. We show that extra fiscal transfers resulted in a20% increase in local government spending per capita, and an increase of about 10 percentagepoints in the re-election probability of local incumbent parties. In the context of an agency modelof electoral accountability, as well as existing results indicating that the revenue jumps studiedhere had positive impacts on education outcomes and earnings, these results suggest that expectedelectoral rewards encouraged incumbents to spend additional funds in ways that were valued byvoters.

Forest fires: Evaluation of government intervention measures

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between government measures, volunteer participation, climate variables and forest fires. A number of studies have related forest fires to causes of ignition, to fire history in one area, to the type of vegetation and weathercharacteristics or to community institutions, but there is little research on the relation between fire production and government prevention and extinction measures from a policy evaluation perspective.An observational approach is first applied to select forest fires in the north east of Spain. Taking a selection of fires with a certain size, a multiple regression analysis is conducted to find significant relations between policy instruments under the control of the government and the number of hectares burn in each case, controlling at the same time the effect of weather conditions and other context variables. The paper brings evidence on the effects of simultaneity and the relevance of recurring to army soldiers in specific days with extraordinary high simultaneity. The analysis also brings light on the effectiveness of twopreventive policies and of helicopters for extinction tasks.

Openness, government size and the terms of trade

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

Report and Recommendations of the Iowa Vertical Infrastructure Advisory Committee, December 17, 2007

This report summaries the work of the committee over the last year and its vision for the future. The committee is followed with interest the work of the Department of Corrections and the Department of Veterans Affairs in evaluating the needs of their facilities and recommends similar evaluations of facilities around the state by other agencies. The committee members are ready to offer advice on the needs of the state's again infrastructure and steps that could be taken to evaluate vacant and underutilized buildings and reduce operational and maintenance costs.

Impactos Decorrentes da Expansão da Cidade de Assomada, Município de Santa Catarina – Cabo Verde

Esta dissertação tem por finalidade evidenciar os “Impactos Decorrentes da Expansão da Cidade de Assomada”. Propõe-se ainda, analisar a relação urbanorural no município de Santa Catarina, Cabo Verde. Essa análise incidiu sobre os dados da sua ocupação, que remonta à 2ª metade do século XIX, no decurso da crise e decadência da primeira cidade de Cabo Verde (Ribeira Grande, atual Cidade- Velha) e às conjunturas regionais e nacionais que condicionaram sua trajetória, bem como, os principais agentes intervenientes na transformação do espaço urbano de Assomada (Estado, proprietários de terra e comerciantes), sobretudo, no período que decorre de 1961 a 2003. A pesquisa empreendida demonstra que a “ruralidade” é um dos aspectos fundamentais de Santa Catarina, abrangendo 21,3% da população rural do território nacional e 37,9% da ilha de Santiago. Do ponto de vista urbanístico, o mapeamento da evolução da cidade de Assomada, referente à área ocupada pelas edificações nesse lapso de tempo, permite-nos perceber um crescimento bastante acelerado desse espaço urbano, sobretudo, a partir dos anos 90. Dois aspectos importantes se encontram na base dessa transformação: a Independência Nacional ocorrida em 1975 e a Emigração. Com a Independência, o país passou a beneficiar de amplos programas de cooperação internacional o que veio a reforçar a sua importância econômica e política, visualizada através de projetos industrializantes, infra-estruturas e equipamentos de diversas naturezas. Esses investimentos foram por sua vez reforçados por aportes dos emigrantes, que passaram a ser um dos parceiros fundamentais no desenvolvimento de Santa Catarina, através de iniciativas privadas e empresariais, como a construção de residências e constituição de empresas. A análise do indicador uso e ocupação do solo urbano permitiu-nos identificar alguns impactos ambientais causados, sobretudo, pela falta de instrumentos de gestão urbanística, ausência de cadastro municipal e uma deficiente fiscalização dos órgãos administrativos.

Fiat money, intrinsic properties and government transaction policy

Why do people coordinate on the use of valueless piecesof paper as generally accepted money? A possible answeris that these objects have intrinsic properties that make them better candidates to be used as media of exchange. Another answer stresses the fact that unconvertible fiat money will not easily appear unless there is a centralized institution that favors its use.The main objective of the paper is to analyze these questions. In order to do this, we take a model of commodity money in which fiat money does not play any significant role and modify it to examine under which circumstances fiat money might come to circulate as medium of exchange. Some of the results obtained from the model differ in a rather substantial way from previous related literature.

Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption

Recent evidence suggests that consumption rises in response to an increase in government spending. That finding cannot be easily reconciled with existing optimizing business cycle models. We extend the standard new Keynesian model to allow for the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers. We show how the interaction of the latter with sticky prices and deficit financing can account for the existing evidence on the effects of government spending.

Government consumption and private consumption correlations

This paper examines whether the introduction of government consumptionexpenditure in a standard one good model of the international real businesscycle is sufficient to reconcile the theory with the existing pattern ofinternational consumption and output correlations. I calibrate the model totwo different pairs of countries and generate the simulated distribution ofconsumption and output correlations implied by several specifications of themodel. It is shown that the model can account for existing internationalconsumption correlations only under very specific assumptions about the sizeof effect of government expenditure on agents' utility or the variabilityof government expenditure shocks. Crucial parameters are identified and thesensitivity of the results discussed.

Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?

We use data from Bankscope to analyze the holdings of public bonds by over 18,000 banks located in 185 countries and the role of these bonds in 18 sovereign debt crises over the period 1998-2012. We find that: (i) banks hold a sizeable share of their assets in government bonds (about 9% on average), particularly in less financially developed countries; (ii) during sovereign crises, banks on average increase their bondholdings by 1% of their assets, but this increase is concentrated among larger and more profitable banks, and; (iii) the correlation between a bank's holdings of public bonds and its future loans is positive in normal times, but turns negative during defaults. A 10% increase in bank bond-holdings during default is associated with a 3.2% reduction in future loans, and bonds bought in normal times account for 75% of this effect. Our results are consistent with the view that there is a liquidity benefit for banks to hold public bonds in normal times, which is critical for understanding bank fragility during sovereign crises.

State Government E85 Use Plan, December 31, 2007

Governor Culver issued Executive Order 3 on June 21st, 2007. The Executive Order directs that at least 60 percent of fuel purchases in state flexible fuel vehicles be E85 by June 30, 2009. The Order also directed “the Director of the Office of Energy Independence, in consultation with the Director of Administrative Services, shall submit a State Government E85 Use Plan.” The following recommendations are immediate actions that can be taken to ensure that the state reaches the Governor’s goal of 60 percent E85 fuel use by June 30, 2009

Vertical Infrastructure Program Plan of Action, December 17, 2008

In order to promote the importance of our assets and to ensure continued and increasing funding for major maintenance and routine maintenance, in 2008 we intend to, annually update a list of facts relating to state buildings and the maintenance needs for those buildings. This information will support the case for increased and permanent funding