Impact of physical processes on the chlorophyll distribution in the Bay of Bengal

Satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (chl a) maps show three regions with high chl a in the Bay of Bengal. First among these is close to the coast, particularly off river mouths, with high values coinciding with the season of peak discharge; second is in the southwestern bay during the northeast monsoon, which is forced by local Ekman pumping; and the third is to the east of Sri Lanka in response to the summer monsoon winds. Chlorophyll-rich water from the mouths of rivers flows either along the coast or in an offshore direction, up to several hundred kilometers, depending on the prevailing ocean current pattern. The Irrawady River plume flows toward offshore and then turns northwestward during October–December, but it flows along the coast into the Andaman Sea for the rest of the year. From the Ganga-Brahmaputra river mouth, chl a–rich water flows directly southward into the open bay during spring but along the Indian coast during summer and winter. Along the Indian coast, the flow of chl a–rich water is determined by the East India Coastal Current (EICC). Whenever the EICC meanders off the Indian coast, it leads to an offshore outbreak of chl a–rich water from the coastal region into open ocean. The EICC as well as open ocean circulation in the bay is made up of several eddies, and these eddies show relatively higher chl a. Eddies near the coast, however, can often have higher chl a because of advection from the coastal region rather than generation within the eddy itself. The bay experiences several cyclones in a year, most of them occurring during October–November. These cyclones cause a drop in the sea surface temperature, a dip in the sea level, and a local increase in chl a. The impact of a cyclone is weaker in the northern part of the bay because of stronger stratification compared to the southern parts.

A possible origin of viscosity in Keplerian accretion disks due to secondary perturbation: Turbulent transport without magnetic fields

The origin of hydrodynamic turbulence in rotating shear flow is a long standing puzzle. Resolving it is especially important in astrophysics when the flow's angular momentum profile is Keplerian which forms an accretion disk having negligible molecular viscosity. Hence, any viscosity in such systems must be due to turbulence, arguably governed by magnetorotational instability, especially when temperature T greater than or similar to 10(5). However, such disks around quiescent cataclysmic variables, protoplanetary and star-forming disks, and the outer regions of disks in active galactic nuclei are practically neutral in charge because of their low temperature, and thus are not expected to be coupled with magnetic fields enough to generate any transport due to the magnetorotational instability. This flow is similar to plane Couette flow including the Coriolis force, at least locally. What drives their turbulence and then transport, when such flows do not exhibit any unstable mode under linear hydrodynamic perturbation? We demonstrate that the three-dimensional secondary disturbance to the primarily perturbed flow that triggers elliptical instability may generate significant turbulent viscosity in the range 0.0001 less than or similar to nu(t) less than or similar to 0.1, which can explain transport in accretion flows.

Paleoseismological evidence of surface faulting along the northeastern Himalayan front, India: Timing, size, and spatial extent of great earthquakes

The similar to 2500 km long Himalayan arc has experienced three large to great earthquakes of M-w 7.8 to 8.4 during the past century, but none produced surface rupture. Paleoseismic studies have been conducted during the last decade to begin understanding the timing, size, rupture extent, return period, and mechanics of the faulting associated with the occurrence of large surface rupturing earthquakes along the similar to 2500 km long Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) system of India and Nepal. The previous studies have been limited to about nine sites along the western two-thirds of the HFT extending through northwest India and along the southern border of Nepal. We present here the results of paleoseismic investigations at three additional sites further to the northeast along the HFT within the Indian states of West Bengal and Assam. The three sites reside between the meizoseismal areas of the 1934 Bihar-Nepal and 1950 Assam earthquakes. The two westernmost of the sites, near the village of Chalsa and near the Nameri Tiger Preserve, show that offsets during the last surface rupture event were at minimum of about 14 m and 12 m, respectively. Limits on the ages of surface rupture at Chalsa (site A) and Nameri (site B), though broad, allow the possibility that the two sites record the same great historical rupture reported in Nepal around A.D. 1100. The correlation between the two sites is supported by the observation that the large displacements as recorded at Chalsa and Nameri would most likely be associated with rupture lengths of hundreds of kilometers or more and are on the same order as reported for a surface rupture earthquake reported in Nepal around A.D. 1100. Assuming the offsets observed at Chalsa and Nameri occurred synchronously with reported offsets in Nepal, the rupture length of the event would approach 700 to 800 km. The easternmost site is located within Harmutty Tea Estate (site C) at the edges of the 1950 Assam earthquake meizoseismal area. Here the most recent event offset is relatively much smaller (<2.5 m), and radiocarbon dating shows it to have occurred after A.D. 1100 (after about A.D. 1270). The location of the site near the edge of the meizoseismal region of the 1950 Assam earthquake and the relatively lesser offset allows speculation that the displacement records the 1950 M-w 8.4 Assam earthquake. Scatter in radiocarbon ages on detrital charcoal has not resulted in a firm bracket on the timing of events observed in the trenches. Nonetheless, the observations collected here, when taken together, suggest that the largest of thrust earthquakes along the Himalayan arc have rupture lengths and displacements of similar scale to the largest that have occurred historically along the world's subduction zones.

Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO2 forcing?

Recently, it was found that a reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to a temporary increase in global precipitation. We use the Hadley Center coupled atmosphere-ocean model, HadCM3L, to demonstrate that this precipitation increase is a consequence of precipitation sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations through fast tropospheric adjustment processes. Slow ocean cooling explains the longer-term decrease in precipitation. Increased CO2 tends to suppress evaporation/precipitation whereas increased temperatures tend to increase evaporation/precipitation. When the enhanced CO2 forcing is removed, global precipitation increases temporarily, but this increase is not observed when a similar negative radiative forcing is applied as a reduction of solar intensity. Therefore, transient precipitation increase following a reduction in CO2-radiative forcing is a consequence of the specific character of CO2 forcing and is not a general feature associated with decreases in radiative forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, and K. Caldeira (2011), Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO2 forcing?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06703, doi:10.1029/2011GL046713.

An integrated model for optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops

An integrated model is developed, based on seasonal inputs of reservoir inflow and rainfall in the irrigated area, to determine the optimal reservoir release policies and irrigation allocations to multiple crops. The model is conceptually made up of two modules, Module 1 is an intraseasonal allocation model to maximize the sum of relative yields of all crops, for a given state of the system, using linear programming (LP). The module takes into account reservoir storage continuity, soil moisture balance, and crop root growth with time. Module 2 is a seasonal allocation model to derive the steady state reservoir operating policy using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). Reservoir storage, seasonal inflow, and seasonal rainfall are the state variables in the SDP. The objective in SDP is to maximize the expected sum of relative yields of all crops in a year. The results of module 1 and the transition probabilities of seasonal inflow and rainfall form the input for module 2. The use of seasonal inputs coupled with the LP-SDP solution strategy in the present formulation facilitates in relaxing the limitations of an earlier study, while affecting additional improvements. The model is applied to an existing reservoir in Karnataka State, India.

Hydrography and circulation in the western Bay of Bengal during the northeast monsoon

The Bay of Bengal, a semienclosed tropical basin that comes under the influence of monsoonal wind and freshwater influx, is distinguished by a strongly stratified surface layer and a seasonally reversing circulation. We discuss characteristics of these features in the western Bay during the northeast monsoon, when the East India Coastal Current (EICC) flows southward, using hydrographic data collected during December 1991. Vertical profiles show uniform temperature and salinity in a homogeneous surface layer, on average, 25 m deep but shallower northward and coastward. The halocline, immediately below, is approximately 50 m thick; salinity changes by approximately 3 parts per thousand. About two thirds of the profiles show temperature inversions in this layer. Salinity below the halocline hardly changes, and stratification is predominantly due to temperature variation, The halocline is noticeably better developed and the surface homogeneous layer is thinner in a low-salinity plume that hugs the coastline along the entire east coast of India, The plume is, on average, 50 km wide, with isohalines sloping down toward the coast. Most prominent in the geostrophic velocity field is the equatorward EICC. Its transport north of about 13 degrees N, computed with 1000 dbar as the level of reference, varies between 2.6 and 7.1 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1); just south of this latitude, a northwestward flow from offshore recurves and merges with the coastal current. At the southern end of the region surveyed, the transport is 7.7 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1). Recent model studies lead us to conclude that the EICC during the northeast monsoon is driven by winds along the east coast of India and Ekman pumping in the interior bay. In the south, Ekman pumping over the southwestern bay is responsible for the northwestward flow that merges with the EICC.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Aerosol radiative forcing due to enhanced black carbon at an urban site in India

[1] During a comprehensive aerosol field campaign, simultaneous measurements were made of aerosol spectral optical depths, black carbon mass concentration (M-b), total (M-t) and size segregated aerosol mass concentrations over an urban continental location, Bangalore (13 degreesN, 77 degreesE, 960 m msl), in India. Large amounts of BC were observed; both in absolute terms and fraction of total mass (similar to11%) and submicron mass (similar to23%) implying a significantly low single scatter albedo. The aerosol visible optical depth (tau(p)) was in the range 0.24 to 0.45. Estimated surface forcing is as high as -23 W m(-2) and top of the atmosphere (TOA) forcing is +5 Wm(-2) during relatively cleaner periods (tau(p) similar to 0.24). The net atmospheric absorption translates to an atmospheric heating of similar to0.8 K day(-1) for cleaner periods and similar to1.5 K day(-1) for less cleaner periods (tau(p) similar to 0.45). Our observations raise several issues, which may have impacts to regional climate and monsoon.

Enhanced aerosol loading over Arabian Sea during the pre-monsoon season: Natural or anthropogenic?

[1] Recent experiments conducted over the oceanic regions adjacent to the Indian sub continent have revealed the presence of anthropogenic aerosol haze during January to March. It has been suggested that the major source of this aerosol is South and Southeast Asia. Here we show from long term, multi-station and ship borne observations that aerosols transported from regions northwest of Indian subcontinent especially Arabian and Saharan regions (mostly natural dust) along with the locally produced sea-salt aerosols by sea-surface winds constitute a more significant source of aerosols during April-May period. The radiative forcing due to Arabian/Saharan aerosols (mostly natural) during April May period is comparable and often exceed (as much as 1.5 times) the forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols during January to March period. The presence of dust load over the Arabian Sea can influence the temperature profile and radiative balance in this region.

Longwave radiative forcing of Indian Ocean tropospheric aerosol

A spectrally resolved discrete-ordinates radiative transfer model is used to calculate the change in downwelling surface and top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave (3.9-500 mum) radiative fluxes induced by tropospheric aerosols of the type observed over the Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX). Both external and internal aerosol mixtures were considered. Throughout the longwave, the aerosol volume extinction depends more strongly on relative humidity than in most of the shortwave (0.28-3.9 mum), implying that particle growth factors and realistic relative humidity profiles must be taken into account when modeling the longwave radiative effects of aerosols. A typical boundary layer aerosol loading, with a 500-nm optical depth of 0.3, will increase the downwelling longwave flux at the surface by 7.7 W m(-2) over the clean air case while decreasing the outgoing longwave radiation by 1.3 W m(-2). A more vertically extended aerosol loading, exhibiting a high opacity plume between 2 and 3 km above the surface and having a typical 500-nm optical depth of 0.7, will increase the downwelling longwave flux at the surface by 11.2 W m(-2) over the clean air case while decreasing the outgoing longwave radiation by 2.7 W m(-2). For a vertically extended aerosol profile, approximately 30% of the TOA radiative forcing comes from sea salt and approximately 60% of the forcing comes from the combination of sea salt and dust. The remaining forcing is from anthropogenic constituents. These results are for the external mixture. For an internal mixture, TOA longwave forcings can be up to a factor of two larger. Therefore, to complete our understanding of this region's longwave aerosol radiative properties, more detailed information is needed about aerosol mixing states. These longwave radiative effects partially offset the large shortwave aerosol radiative forcing and should be included in regional and global climate modeling simulations.

Spring Warming of the Eastern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from Buoy Data

Observations from moored buoys during spring of 1998-2000 suggest that the warming of the mixed layer (similar to20 m deep) of the north Indian Ocean warm pool is a response to net surface heat flux Q(net) (similar to100 W m(-2)) minus penetrative solar radiation Q(pen) (similar to45 W m(-2)). A residual cooling due to vertical mixing and advection is indirectly estimated to be about 25 W m(-2). The rate of warming due to typical values of Q(net) minus Q(pen) is not very sensitive to the depth of the mixed layer if it lies between 10 m and 30 m.

Numerical Modelling of the Observed Diurnal Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

Geomagnetic Storms Over India: A Close Look at Historic Space Weather at Mumbai

The swirling colors of aurorae, familiar to many in polar communities, can occasionally be seen at middle latitudes in locations such as southern Canada and central Europe. But in rare instances, aurorae can even be seen in the tropics. On 6 February 1872, news of the sighting of one such aurora was carried by the Times of India newspaper. The aurora occurred on 4 February 1872 and, as noted, was also observed over the Middle East.