On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

L'athérosclérose est-elle une maladie gingivo-induite [Is atherosclerosis a periodontally-induced disease?]

Traditional risk factors do not explain all of cases of ischemic cardiovascular disease. The literature now identifies periodontal disease, a chronic oral infection, as a potential risk factor of atherosclerosis. Three plausible biologic pathways have been proposed to explain this link: a direct action of periodontal bacteria migrating by bacteriemia, an indirect action by inflammation, mediators an immunopathogenic pathway related to heat shock proteins. Clinical studies show an increase in the CRP or recirculating specific immunoglobulins in presence of advanced periodontal disease. Other interventional studies show a reduction in cardiovascular risk factors when intensive periodontal therapy is used in patients with advanced periodontal disease. Literature therefore confirms a modest link between periodontal and cardiovascular diseases even if causality is not confirmed so far.

Singularity-free space-time

We show that the solution published in the paper by Senovilla [Phys. Rev. Lett. 64, 2219 (1990)] is geodesically complete and singularity-free. We also prove that the solution satisfies the stronger energy and causality conditions, such as global hyperbolicity, the strong energy condition, causal symmetry, and causal stability. A detailed discussion about which assumptions in the singularity theorems are not satisfied is performed, and we show explicitly that the solution is in accordance with those theorems. A brief discussion of the results is given.

Dexamethasone inhibition of leucocyte adhesion to rat mesenteric postcapillary venules: role of intercellular adhesion molecule 1 and KC

BACKGROUND A previous study showed that the glucocorticoid dexamethasone, at doses of 100 ¿g/kg and above, inhibited leucocyte adhesion to rat mesenteric postcapillary venules activated with interleukin 1ß (IL-1ß), as assessed by videomicroscopy. AIMS To identify whether the adhesion molecule, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), or the chemokine KC could be targeted by the steroid to mediate its antiadhesive effect. METHODS Rat mesenteries were treated with IL-1ß (20 ng intraperitoneally) and the extent of leucocyte adhesion measured at two and four hours using intravital microscopy. Rats were treated with dexamethasone, and passively immunised against ICAM-1 or KC. Endogenous expression of these two mediators was validated by immunohistochemistry, ELISA, and the injection of specific radiolabelled antibodies. RESULTS Dexamethasone greatly reduced IL-1ß induced leucocyte adhesion, endothelial expression of ICAM-1 in the postcapillary venule, and release of the mast cell derived chemokine KC. Injection of specific antibodies to the latter mediators was also extremely effective in downregulating (>80%) IL-1ß induced leucocyte adhesion. CONCLUSIONS Induction by IL-1ß of endogenous ICAM-1 and KC contributes to leucocyte adhesion to inflamed mesenteric vessels. Without excluding other possible mediators, these data clearly show that dexamethasone interferes with ICAM-1 expression and KC release from mast cells, resulting in suppression of leucocyte accumulation in the bowel wall, which is a prominent feature of several gastrointestinal pathologies.

A Mendelian randomization approach to assess the causal relationship of gamma-glutamyl transferase with blood pressure and insulin

Background: Elevated levels of g-glutamyl transferase (GGT) have been associated with subsequent risk of elevated blood pressure (BP), hypertension and diabetes. However, the causality of these relationships has not been addressed. Mendelian randomization refers to the random allocation of alleles at the time of gamete formation. Such allocation is expected to be independent of any behavioural and environmental factors (known or unknown), allowing the analysis of largely unconfounded risk associations that are not due to reverse causation. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis among 4361 participants to the population based CoLaus study. Associations of sex-specific GGT quartiles with systolic BP, diastolic BP and insulin levels were assessed using multivariable linear regression analyses. The rs2017869 GGT1 variant, which explained 1.6% of the variance in GGT levels, was used as an instrument to perform a Mendelian randomization analysis. Results: Median age of the study population was 53 years. After age and sex adjustment, GGT quartiles were strongly associated with systolic and diastolic BP (all p for linear trend <0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, these relationships were significantly attenuated, but remained significant for systolic (b(95%CI)¼1.30 (0.32;2.03), p¼0.007) and diastolic BP (b (95%CI)¼0.57 (0.02;1.13), p¼0.04). Using Mendelian randomization, we observed no positive association of GGT with either systolic BP (b (95%CI)¼-5.68 (-11.51-0.16), p¼0.06) or diastolic BP (b (95%CI)¼ -2.24 (-5.98;1.49) p¼0.24). The association of GGT with insulin was also attenuated after multivariable adjustment. Nevertheless, a strong linear trend persisted in the fully adjusted model (b (95%CI)¼0.07 (0.04;0.09), p<0.0001). Using Mendelian randomization, we observed a similar positive association of GGT with insulin (b (95%CI)¼0.19 (0.01-0.37), p¼0.04). Conclusion: In this study, we found evidence for a direct causal relationship between GGT and insulin, suggesting that oxidative stress may be causally implicated in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.

Ureaplasma urealyticum, Mycoplasma hominis and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum may colonize the human genital tract and have been associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Chorioamnionitis, spontaneous preterm labour and preterm premature rupture of membranes are significant contributors to neonatal morbidity and mortality. However, as these bacteria can reside in the normal vaginal flora, there are controversies regarding their true role during pregnancy and thus the need to treat these organisms. RECENT FINDINGS: We review here the recent data on the epidemiology of mycoplasmas and their clinical role during pregnancy. The association of these organisms with preterm labour has been suggested by many observational studies, but proof of causality remains limited. PCR is an excellent alternative to culture to detect the presence of these organisms, but culture allows antibiotic susceptibility testing. Whether antimicrobial treatment of mycoplasma-colonized pregnant patients can effectively reduce the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes warrants further investigations. SUMMARY: The role of Mycoplasma spp. and U. urealyticum in adverse pregnancy outcomes is increasingly accepted. However, sole presence of these microorganisms in the vaginal flora might be insufficient to cause pathological issues, but their combination with other factors such as bacterial vaginosis or cervical incompetence may be additionally needed to induce preterm birth.

A Mutation in CALM1 Encoding Calmodulin in Familial Idiopathic Ventricular Fibrillation in Childhood and Adolescence.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify the genetic defect in a family with idiopathic ventricular fibrillation (IVF) manifesting in childhood and adolescence. BACKGROUND: Although sudden cardiac death in the young is rare, it frequently presents as the first clinical manifestation of an underlying inherited arrhythmia syndrome. Gene discovery for IVF is important as it enables the identification of individuals at risk, because except for arrhythmia, IVF does not manifest with identifiable clinical abnormalities. METHODS: Exome sequencing was carried out on 2 family members who were both successfully resuscitated from a cardiac arrest. RESULTS: We characterized a family presenting with a history of ventricular fibrillation (VF) and sudden death without electrocardiographic or echocardiographic abnormalities at rest. Two siblings died suddenly at the ages of 9 and 10 years, and another 2 were resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with documented VF at ages 10 and 16 years, respectively. Exome sequencing identified a missense mutation affecting a highly conserved residue (p.F90L) in the CALM1 gene encoding calmodulin. This mutation was also carried by 1 of the siblings who died suddenly, from whom DNA was available. The mutation was present in the mother and in another sibling, both asymptomatic but displaying a marginally prolonged QT interval during exercise. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a mutation in CALM1 underlying IVF manifesting in childhood and adolescence. The causality of the mutation is supported by previous studies demonstrating that F90 mediates the direct interaction of CaM with target peptides. Our approach highlights the utility of exome sequencing in uncovering the genetic defect even in families with a small number of affected individuals.

Juvenile delinquency in Switzerland over 50 years: assessing trends beyond statistics

The general public seems to be convinced that juvenile delinquency has massively increased over the last decades. However, this assumption is much less popular among academics and some media where doubts about the reality of this trend are often expressed. In the present paper, trends are followed using conviction statistics over 50 years, police and victimization data since the 1980s, and self-report data collected since 1992. All sources consistently point to a massive increase of offending among juveniles, particularly for violent offences during the 1990s. Given that trends were similar in most European countries, explanations should be sought at the European rather than the national level. The available evidence points to possible effects of increased opportunities for property offences since 1950, and although causality remains hard to prove, effects of increased exposure to extreme media violence since 1985.

Metabolic predictors of obesity. Contribution of resting energy expenditure, thermic effect of food, and fuel utilization to four-year weight gain of post-obese and never-obese women.

This prospective study was designed to identify abnormalities of energy expenditure and fuel utilization which distinguish post-obese women from never-obese controls. 24 moderately obese, postmenopausal, nondiabetic women with a familial predisposition to obesity underwent assessments of body composition, fasting and postprandial energy expenditure, and fuel utilization in the obese state and after weight loss (mean 12.9 kg) to a post-obese, normal-weight state. The post-obese women were compared with 24 never-obese women of comparable age and body composition. Four years later, without intervention, body weight was reassessed in both groups. Results indicated that all parameters measured in the post-obese women were similar to the never-obese controls: mean resting energy expenditure, thermic effect of food, and fasting and postprandial substrate oxidation and insulin-glucose patterns. Four years later, post-obese women regained a mean of 10.9 kg while control subjects remained lean (mean gain 1.7 kg) (P < 0.001 between groups). Neither energy expenditure nor fuel oxidation correlated with 4-yr weight changes, whereas self-reported physical inactivity was associated with greater weight regain. The data suggest that weight gain in obesity-prone women may be due to maladaptive responses to the environment, such as physical inactivity or excess energy intake, rather than to reduced energy requirements.

Biological embedding of early-life exposures and disease risk in humans : a role for DNA methylation

BACKGROUND: Following wider acceptance of 'the thrifty phenotype' hypothesis and the convincing evidence that early-life exposures can influence adult health even decades after the exposure, much interest has been placed on the mechanisms through which early-life exposures become biologically embedded. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this review, we summarize the current literature regarding biological embedding of early-life experiences. To this end, we conducted a literature search to identify studies investigating early-life exposures in relation to DNA methylation changes. In addition, we summarize the challenges faced in investigations of epigenetic effects, stemming from the peculiarities of this emergent and complex field. A proper systematic review and meta-analyses were not feasible given the nature of the evidence. RESULTS: We identified seven studies on early-life socio-economic circumstances, 10 studies on childhood obesity and six studies on early-life nutrition all relating to DNA methylation changes that met the stipulated inclusion criteria. The pool of evidence gathered, albeit small, favours a role of epigenetics and DNA methylation in biological embedding, but replication of findings, multiple comparison corrections, publication bias and causality are concerns remaining to be addressed in future investigations. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these results, we hypothesize that epigenetics, in particular DNA methylation, is a plausible mechanism through which early-life exposures are biologically embedded. This review describes the current status of the field and acts as a stepping stone for future, better designed investigations on how early-life exposures might become biologically embedded through epigenetic effects.

A genomewide scan for early-onset coronary artery disease in 438 families: the GENECARD Study.

A family history of coronary artery disease (CAD), especially when the disease occurs at a young age, is a potent risk factor for CAD. DNA collection in families in which two or more siblings are affected at an early age allows identification of genetic factors for CAD by linkage analysis. We performed a genomewide scan in 1,168 individuals from 438 families, including 493 affected sibling pairs with documented onset of CAD before 51 years of age in men and before 56 years of age in women. We prospectively defined three phenotypic subsets of families: (1) acute coronary syndrome in two or more siblings; (2) absence of type 2 diabetes in all affected siblings; and (3) atherogenic dyslipidemia in any one sibling. Genotypes were analyzed for 395 microsatellite markers. Regions were defined as providing evidence for linkage if they provided parametric two-point LOD scores >1.5, together with nonparametric multipoint LOD scores >1.0. Regions on chromosomes 3q13 (multipoint LOD = 3.3; empirical P value <.001) and 5q31 (multipoint LOD = 1.4; empirical P value <.081) met these criteria in the entire data set, and regions on chromosomes 1q25, 3q13, 7p14, and 19p13 met these criteria in one or more of the subsets. Two regions, 3q13 and 1q25, met the criteria for genomewide significance. We have identified a region on chromosome 3q13 that is linked to early-onset CAD, as well as additional regions of interest that will require further analysis. These data provide initial areas of the human genome where further investigation may reveal susceptibility genes for early-onset CAD.

Late onset tacrolimus-induced life-threatening polyneuropathy in a kidney transplant recipient patient

A 59-year-old kidney recipient was diagnosed with a late onset of severe chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy and almost fully recovered after stopping tacrolimus and one course of intravenous immunoglobulin treatment. Unique features of this patient are the unusually long time lapse between initiation of tacrolimus and the adverse effect (10 years), a strong causality link and several arguments pointing toward an inflammatory etiology. When facing new neurological signs and symptoms in graft recipients, it is important to bear in mind the possibility of a drug-induced adverse event. Discontinuation of the suspect drug and immunomodulation are useful treatment options.

Use of a Mendelian randomization approach to assess the causal relation of gamma-Glutamyltransferase with blood pressure and serum insulin levels.

Elevated levels of γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) have been associated with elevated blood pressure (BP) and diabetes. However, the causality of these relations has not been addressed. The authors performed a cross-sectional analysis (2003-2006) among 4,360 participants from the population-based Cohorte Lausannoise (CoLaus) Study (Lausanne, Switzerland). The rs2017869 variant of the γ-glutamyltransferase 1 (GGT1) gene, which explained 1.6% of the variance in GGT levels, was used as an instrument for Mendelian randomization (MR). Sex-specific GGT quartiles were strongly associated with both systolic and diastolic BP (all P's < 0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, these relations were attenuated but remained significant. Using MR, the authors observed no positive association of GGT with BP (systolic: β -5.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): -11.51, 0.16 (P = 0.06); diastolic: β = -2.24, 95% CI: -5.98, 1.49 (P = 0.24)). The association of GGT with insulin was also attenuated after multivariable adjustment but persisted in the fully adjusted model (β = 0.07, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.09; P < 0.0001). Using MR, the authors also observed a positive association of GGT with insulin (β = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.37; P = 0.04). In conclusion, the authors found evidence for a direct causal relation of GGT with fasting insulin but not with BP.

Typing less common ovarian tumors: A training tool based on a pattern-based algorithm applied to a set of 20 virtual slides.

Context: Ovarian tumors (OT) typing is a competency expected from pathologists, with significant clinical implications. OT however come in numerous different types, some rather rare, with the consequence of few opportunities for practice in some departments. Aim: Our aim was to design a tool for pathologists to train in less common OT typing. Method and Results: Representative slides of 20 less common OT were scanned (Nano Zoomer Digital Hamamatsu®) and the diagnostic algorithm proposed by Young and Scully applied to each case (Young RH and Scully RE, Seminars in Diagnostic Pathology 2001, 18: 161-235) to include: recognition of morphological pattern(s); shortlisting of differential diagnosis; proposition of relevant immunohistochemical markers. The next steps of this project will be: evaluation of the tool in several post-graduate training centers in Europe and Québec; improvement of its design based on evaluation results; diffusion to a larger public. Discussion: In clinical medicine, solving many cases is recognized as of utmost importance for a novice to become an expert. This project relies on the virtual slides technology to provide pathologists with a learning tool aimed at increasing their skills in OT typing. After due evaluation, this model might be extended to other uncommon tumors.