Detecting drift from event streams of unpredictable business processes

Existing business process drift detection methods do not work with event streams. As such, they are designed to detect inter-trace drifts only, i.e. drifts that occur between complete process executions (traces), as recorded in event logs. However, process drift may also occur during the execution of a process, and may impact ongoing executions. Existing methods either do not detect such intra-trace drifts, or detect them with a long delay. Moreover, they do not perform well with unpredictable processes, i.e. processes whose logs exhibit a high number of distinct executions to the total number of executions. We address these two issues by proposing a fully automated and scalable method for online detection of process drift from event streams. We perform statistical tests over distributions of behavioral relations between events, as observed in two adjacent windows of adaptive size, sliding along with the stream. An extensive evaluation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that our method is fast and accurate in the detection of typical change patterns, and performs significantly better than the state of the art.

A Comparison of Managers’ Perception of Short-Termism in Finland, Sweden and the U.S

Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception – especially favored by the media itself – that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically the relevant question is whether companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company’s long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results show that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm’s ownership structure, i.e. we find support for the existence of short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.

Effects of Mean Luminance Changes on Human Contrast Perception

Background When we are viewing natural scenes, every saccade abruptly changes both the mean luminance and the contrast structure falling on any given retinal location. Thus it would be useful if the two were independently encoded by the visual system, even when they change simultaneously. Recordings from single neurons in the cat visual system have suggested that contrast information may be quite independently represented in neural responses to simultaneous changes in contrast and luminance. Here we test to what extent this is true in human perception. Methodology/Principal Findings Small contrast stimuli were presented together with a 7-fold upward or downward step of mean luminance (between 185 and 1295 Td, corresponding to 14 and 98 cd/m2), either simultaneously or with various delays (50–800 ms). The perceived contrast of the target under the different conditions was measured with an adaptive staircase method. Over the contrast range 0.1–0.45, mainly subtractive attenuation was found. Perceived contrast decreased by 0.052±0.021 (N = 3) when target onset was simultaneous with the luminance increase. The attenuation subsided within 400 ms, and even faster after luminance decreases, where the effect was also smaller. The main results were robust against differences in target types and the size of the field over which luminance changed. Conclusions/Significance Perceived contrast is attenuated mainly by a subtractive term when coincident with a luminance change. The effect is of ecologically relevant magnitude and duration; in other words, strict contrast constancy must often fail during normal human visual behaviour. Still, the relative robustness of the contrast signal is remarkable in view of the limited dynamic response range of retinal cones. We propose a conceptual model for how early retinal signalling may allow this.

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Kansalaisuus työyhteisön arjessa : Maahanmuuttajien kertomuksia työelämästä

Citizenship in the everyday of a work community. Immigrants narratives of working life. Through globalisation and the mobility of workforce, citizenship has gained new forms, and the mere legal definition of citizenship no longer gives a comprehensive view of the citizenship of an individual. Also the social, cultural and financial dimensions of it are related to the concept of citizenship. In Finland, full citizenship is promoted, according to the Integration Act and social security system, by the requirement that immigrants should mainly get their livelihood through work. In my study I approach citizenship on four levels: the global, national, work community and private levels. In the study, the global has constituted the largest possible context, which refers to the local affects of global processes. The local and the global come together in the research in that globalisation is realised on the local level, i.e. in small communities such as work communities. The objective of the study is to examine how the citizenship of immigrants who live and work in Finland is constructed in the everyday life of a work community. The most central concept of the study is cultural script, which is based on prevailing forms of knowing, and which are constructed in different ways in different times and cultures. Conflicts of scripts in the working life and difficulties in understanding and applying them are in the centre of the study. In the study, the working life experiences of immigrants are approached through narrative research. The research material consists of the working life narratives of nine immigrants who live and work in Finland permanently. Each interviewee has been interviewed 2 4 times so the research material consists of 26 interviews. The material has been analysed from the points of view of perception, feeling and action. Deborah Tannen s and William Labov s as well as Matti Hyvärinen s method of expectancy analysis to locate cultural scripts has been utilised to organise the research material. In addition, David Herman s concepts of participatory roles and event types formed in narratives have been used in the analysis of the material. The basis in the analysis is that the world, events and experiences do not define the available processes; they are always culturally and individually anchored choices of the speaker and narrator. The most important results of the study are related to the gap between globalisation and everyday life. The discussion about the future need for workforce due to the changing population structure as well as about the benefits for national economy brought by internationalisation has continued in Finland for years. However, the working life narratives of the immigrants interviewed for the study show that an average citizen and member of a work community does not immediately encounter the macro level benefits in, for example, the mobility of workforce. In most of the working life narratives there was a point in speaking and saying, in which the immigrant worker either dares to speak or falls silent. Sometimes the courage to speak was related to language skills but more to the courage to be seen and to be part of a Finnish work community. Other workers that either speak their colleague with an immigrant background into a part of their work community or marginalise the colleague with their silence have an important role in a Finnish work community. In several working life narratives, the script of the Finnish working life and work community, the way to work, was opened to the immigrant and the so-called script exchange did not take place. The study shows that working life experiences and inclusion and exclusion built on the working life have an important role in the construction of active citizenship. The detailed analysis of the working life experience narratives gives new, relevant research data about citizenship as inclusion.

Divergencies of Perception : The Possibilities of Merleau-Pontian Phenomenology in Analyses of Contemporary Art

Maurice Merleau-Ponty (1908-1961) has been known as the philosopher of painting. His interest in the theory of perception intertwined with the questions concerning the artist s perception, the experience of an artwork and the possible interpretations of the artwork. For him, aesthetics was not a sub-field of philosophy, and art was not simply a subject matter for the aesthetic experience, but a form of thinking. This study proposes an opening for a dialogue between Merleau-Pontian phenomenology and contemporary art. The thesis examines his phenomenology through certain works of contemporary art and presents readings of these artworks through his phenomenology. The thesis both shows the potentiality of a method, but also engages in the critical task of finding the possible limitations of his approach. The first part lays out the methodological and conceptual points of departure of Merleau-Ponty s phenomenological approach to perception as well as the features that determined his discussion on encountering art. Merleau-Ponty referred to the experience of perceiving art using the notion of seeing with (voir selon). He stressed a correlative reciprocity described in Eye and Mind (1961) as the switching of the roles of the visible and the painter. The choice of artworks is motivated by certain restrictions in the phenomenological readings of visual arts. The examined works include paintings by Tiina Mielonen, a photographic work by Christian Mayer, a film by Douglas Gordon and Philippe Parreno, and an installation by Monika Sosnowska. These works resonate with, and challenge, his phenomenological approach. The chapters with case studies take up different themes that are central to Merleau-Ponty s phenomenology: space, movement, time, and touch. All of the themes are interlinked with the examined artworks. There are also topics that reappear in the thesis, such as the notion of écart and the question of encountering the other. As Merleau-Ponty argued, the sphere of art has a particular capability to address our being in the world. The thesis presents an interpretation that emphasises the notion of écart, which refers to an experience of divergence or dispossession. The sudden dissociation, surprise or rupture that is needed in order for a meeting between the spectator and the artwork, or between two persons, to be possible. Further, the thesis suggests that through artworks it is possible to take into consideration the écart, the divergence, that defines our subjectivity.

Generalized model for infrared perception from an engine exhaust

A comprehensive scheme has been developed for the prediction of radiation from engine exhaust and its incidence on an arbitrarily located sensor. Existing codes have been modified for the simulation of flows inside nozzles and jets. A novel view factor computation scheme has been applied for the determination of the radiosities of the discrete panels of a diffuse and gray nozzle surface. The narrowband model has been used to model the radiation from the gas inside the nozzle and the nonhomogeneous jet. The gas radiation from the nozzle inclusive of nozzle surface radiosities have been used as boundary conditions on the jet radiation. Geometric modeling techniques have been developed to identify and isolate nozzle surface panels and gas columns of the nozzle and jet to determine the radiation signals incident on the sensor. The scheme has been validated for intensity and heat flux predictions, and some useful results of practical importance have been generated to establish its viability for infrared signature analysis of jets.

A fast algorithm for finding frequent episodes in event streams

Frequent episode discovery is a popular framework for mining data available as a long sequence of events. An episode is essentially a short ordered sequence of event types and the frequency of an episode is some suitable measure of how often the episode occurs in the data sequence. Recently,we proposed a new frequency measure for episodes based on the notion of non-overlapped occurrences of episodes in the event sequence, and showed that, such a definition, in addition to yielding computationally efficient algorithms, has some important theoretical properties in connecting frequent episode discovery with HMM learning. This paper presents some new algorithms for frequent episode discovery under this non-overlapped occurrences-based frequency definition. The algorithms presented here are better (by a factor of N, where N denotes the size of episodes being discovered) in terms of both time and space complexities when compared to existing methods for frequent episode discovery. We show through some simulation experiments, that our algorithms are very efficient. The new algorithms presented here have arguably the least possible orders of spaceand time complexities for the task of frequent episode discovery.

Fast algorithms for frequent episode discovery in event sequences

In this paper we consider the process of discovering frequent episodes in event sequences. The most computationally intensive part of this process is that of counting the frequencies of a set of candidate episodes. We present two new frequency counting algorithms for speeding up this part. These, referred to as non-overlapping and non-inteleaved frequency counts, are based on directly counting suitable subsets of the occurrences of an episode. Hence they are different from the frequency counts of Mannila et al [1], where they count the number of windows in which the episode occurs. Our new frequency counts offer a speed-up factor of 7 or more on real and synthetic datasets. We also show how the new frequency counts can be used when the events in episodes have time-durations as well.

Generalized frequent episodes in Event Sequences

Discovering patterns in temporal data is an important task in Data Mining. A successful method for this was proposed by Mannila et al. [1] in 1997. In their framework, mining for temporal patterns in a database of sequences of events is done by discovering the so called frequent episodes. These episodes characterize interesting collections of events occurring relatively close to each other in some partial order. However, in this framework(and in many others for finding patterns in event sequences), the ordering of events in an event sequence is the only allowed temporal information. But there are many applications where the events are not instantaneous; they have time durations. Interesting episodesthat we want to discover may need to contain information regarding event durations etc. In this paper we extend Mannila et al.’s framework to tackle such issues. In our generalized formulation, episodes are defined so that much more temporal information about events can be incorporated into the structure of an episode. This significantly enhances the expressive capability of the rules that can be discovered in the frequent episode framework. We also present algorithms for discovering such generalized frequent episodes.

Delay Optimal Event Detection on Ad Hoc Wireless Sensor Networks

We consider a small extent sensor network for event detection, in which nodes periodically take samples and then contend over a random access network to transmit their measurement packets to the fusion center. We consider two procedures at the fusion center for processing the measurements. The Bayesian setting, is assumed, that is, the fusion center has a prior distribution on the change time. In the first procedure, the decision algorithm at the fusion center is network-oblivious and makes a decision only when a complete vector of measurements taken at a sampling instant is available. In the second procedure, the decision algorithm at the fusion center is network-aware and processes measurements as they arrive, but in a time-causal order. In this case, the decision statistic depends on the network delays, whereas in the network-oblivious case, the decision statistic does not. This yields a Bayesian change-detection problem with a trade-off between the random network delay and the decision delay that is, a higher sampling rate reduces the decision delay but increases the random access delay. Under periodic sampling, in the network-oblivious case, the structure of the optimal stopping rule is the same as that without the network, and the optimal change detection delay decouples into the network delay and the optimal decision delay without the network. In the network-aware case, the optimal stopping problem is analyzed as a partially observable Markov decision process, in which the states of the queues and delays in the network need to be maintained. A sufficient decision statistic is the network state and the posterior probability of change having occurred, given the measurements received and the state of the network. The optimal regimes are studied using simulation.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.