971 resultados para Empirical Modeling


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An electrified railway system includes complex interconnections and interactions of several subsystems. Computer simulation is the only viable means for system evaluation and analysis. This paper discusses the difficulties and requirements of effective simulation models for this specialized industrial application; and the development of a general-purpose multi-train simulator.

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The track allocation problem (TAP) at a multi-track, multi-platform mainline railway station is defined by the station track layout and service timetable, which implies combinations of spatial and temporal conflicts. Feasible solutions are available from either traditional planning or advanced intelligent searching methods and their evaluations with respect to operational requirements are essential for the operators. To facilitate thorough analysis, a timed Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) model is presented here to encapsulate the inter-relationships of the spatial and temporal constraints in the TAP.

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A novel model for the potentiostatic discharge of primary alkaline battery cathodes is presented. The model is used to simulate discharges resulting from the stepped potential electrochemical spectroscopy (SPECS) of primary alkaline battery cathodes cathodes, and the results are validated with experimental data. We show that a model based on a single (or mean) reaction framework can be used to simulate multi-reaction discharge behaviour and we develop a consistent functional modification to the kinetic equation of the model that allows for this to occur. The model is used to investigate the effects that the initial exchange current density, i00, and the diffusion coefficient for protons in electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD), DH+, have on SPECS discharge. The behaviour observed is consistent with the idea that individual reduction reactions, within the multi-reaction, reduction behaviour of EMD, have distinct i00 and DH+ values.

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Abstract Computer simulation is a versatile and commonly used tool for the design and evaluation of systems with different degrees of complexity. Power distribution systems and electric railway network are areas for which computer simulations are being heavily applied. A dominant factor in evaluating the performance of a software simulator is its processing time, especially in the cases of real-time simulation. Parallel processing provides a viable mean to reduce the computing time and is therefore suitable for building real-time simulators. In this paper, we present different issues related to solving the power distribution system with parallel computing based on a multiple-CPU server and we will concentrate, in particular, on the speedup performance of such an approach.

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This paper presents early results from a pilot project which aims to investigate the relationship between proprietary structure of small and medium- sized Italian family firms and their owners’ orientation towards a “business evaluation process”. Evidence from many studies point out the importance of family business in a worldwide economic environment: in Italy 93% of the businesses are represented by family firms; 98% of them have less than 50 employees (Italian Association of Family Firms, 2004) so we judged family SMEs as a relevant field of investigation. In this study we assume a broad definition of family business as “a firm whose control (50% of shares or voting rights) is closely held by the members of the same family” (Corbetta,1995). “Business evaluation process” is intended here both as “continuous evaluation process” (which is the expression of a well developed managerial attitude) or as an “immediate valuation” (i.e. in the case of new shareholder’s entrance, share exchange among siblings, etc). We set two hypotheses to be tested in this paper: the first is “quantitative” and aims to verify whether the number of owners (independent variable) in a family firm is positively correlated to the business evaluation process. If a family firm is led by only one subject, it is more likely that personal values, culture and feelings may affect his choices more than “purely economic opportunities”; so there is less concern about monitoring economic performance or about the economic value of the firm. As the shareholders’ number increases, economic aspects in managing the firm grow in importance over the personal values and "value orientation" acquires a central role. The second hypothesis investigates if and to what extent the presence of “non- family members” among the owners affects their orientation to the business evaluation process. The “Cramer’s V” test has been used to test the hypotheses; both were not confirmed from these early results; next steps will lead to make an inferential analysis on a representative sample of the population.

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Il Consiglio di Amministrazione (CdA) è il principale organo di governo delle aziende. La letteratura gli attribuisce tre ruoli: controllo, indirizzo strategico e collegamento con l’ambiente (networking). Precedenti studi empirici hanno analizzato se un Consiglio di Amministrazione è attivo o meno in tutti e tre i ruoli in un dato momento. Nel presente lavoro, invece, si propone un approccio «contingente» e si analizzano i ruoli svolti dal CdA al variare delle condizioni interne (aziende in crisi o di successo) ed esterne (aziende in settori competitivi o regolamentati).. L’indagine empirica è stata condotta su un campione di 301 imprese italiane di grandi dimensioni. I risultati supportano la tesi iniziale secondo cui le condizioni interne ed esterne incidono sul ruolo svolto dal CdA. In particolare i risultati evidenziano che il CdA non svolge sempre tutti e tre i ruoli nello stesso momento, ma esso si concentra sul ruolo o sui ruoli che assumono grande importanza nella situazione in cui si trova l’azienda. Con riferimento alle condizioni interne, nelle imprese in crisi il CdA è attivo in tutti e tre i ruoli, mentre in quelle di successo prevale un orientamento verso la funzione strategica. Nelle aziende che operano in settori competitivi il ruolo di controllo è più pressante mentre nei settori regolamentati prevale una funzione di networking.

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This paper reports on the empirical comparison of seven machine learning algorithms in texture classification with application to vegetation management in power line corridors. Aiming at classifying tree species in power line corridors, object-based method is employed. Individual tree crowns are segmented as the basic classification units and three classic texture features are extracted as the input to the classification algorithms. Several widely used performance metrics are used to evaluate the classification algorithms. The experimental results demonstrate that the classification performance depends on the performance matrix, the characteristics of datasets and the feature used.

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The quality and bitrate modeling is essential to effectively adapt the bitrate and quality of videos when delivered to multiplatform devices over resource constraint heterogeneous networks. The recent model proposed by Wang et al. estimates the bitrate and quality of videos in terms of the frame rate and quantization parameter. However, to build an effective video adaptation framework, it is crucial to incorporate the spatial resolution in the analytical model for bitrate and perceptual quality adaptation. Hence, this paper proposes an analytical model to estimate the bitrate of videos in terms of quantization parameter, frame rate, and spatial resolution. The model can fit the measured data accurately which is evident from the high Pearson correlation. The proposed model is based on the observation that the relative reduction in bitrate due to decreasing spatial resolution is independent of the quantization parameter and frame rate. This modeling can be used for rate-constrained bit-stream adaptation scheme which selects the scalability parameters to optimize the perceptual quality for a given bandwidth constraint.

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Background: A State-based industry in Australia is in the process of developing a programme to prevent AOD impairment in the workplace. The objective of this study was to determine whether the Theory of Planned Behaviour can help explain the mechanisms by which behaviour change occurs with regard to AOD impairment in the workplace. ---------- Method: A survey of 1165 employees of a State-based industry in Australia was conducted, and a response rate of 98% was achieved. The survey included questions relevant to the Theory of Planned Behaviour: behaviour; behavioural intentions; attitude; perceptions of social pressure; and perceived behavioural control with regard to workplace AOD impairment. ---------- Findings: Less than 3% of participants reported coming to work impaired by AODs. Fewer than 2% of participants reported that they intended to come to work impaired by AODs. The majority of participants (over 80%) reported unfavourable attitudes toward AOD impairment at work. Logistic regression analyses suggest that, consistent with the theory of planned behaviour: attitudes, perceptions of social pressure, and perceived behavioural control with regard to workplace AOD impairment, all predict behavioural intentions (P < .001); and behavioural intentions predict (self-reported) behaviour regarding workplace AOD impairment (P < .001). ---------- Conclusions: The Theory of Planned Behaviour appears to assist with understanding the mechanisms by which behaviour change occurs with regard to AOD impairment in the workplace. An occupational AOD programme which targets those mechanisms for change may improve its impact in preventing workplace AOD impairment.

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In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

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This paper attempts to develop a theoretical acceptance model for measuring Web personalization success. Key factors impacting Web personalization acceptance are identified from a detailed literature review. The final model is then cast in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework comprising nineteen manifest variables, which are grouped into three focal behaviors of Web users. These variables could provide a framework for better understanding of numerous factors that contribute to the success measures of Web personalization technology. Especially, those concerning the quality of personalized features and how personalized information through personalized Website can be delivered to the user. The interrelationship between success constructs is also explained. Empirical validations of this theoretical model are expected on future research.

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A review of the literature related to issues involved in irrigation induced agricultural development (IIAD) reveals that: (1) the magnitude, sensitivity and distribution of social welfare of IIAD is not fully analysed; (2) the impacts of excessive pesticide use on farmers’ health are not adequately explained; (3) no analysis estimates the relationship between farm level efficiency and overuse of agro-chemical inputs under imperfect markets; and (4) the method of incorporating groundwater extraction costs is misleading. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarised as follows. First, the thesis demonstrates that Sri Lanka has gained a positive welfare change as a result of introducing new irrigation technology. The change in the consumer surplus is Rs.48,236 million, while the change in the producer surplus is Rs. 14,274 millions between 1970 and 2006. The results also show that the long run benefits and costs of IIAD depend critically on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated area, as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (agricultural crowding out effects). The traditional sector’s ability to compete with the modern sector depends on productivity improvements, reducing production costs and future structural changes (spillover effects). Second, the thesis findings on pesticides used for agriculture show that, on average, a farmer incurs a cost of approximately Rs. 590 to 800 per month during a typical cultivation period due to exposure to pesticides. It is shown that the value of average loss in earnings per farmer for the ‘hospitalised’ sample is Rs. 475 per month, while it is approximately Rs. 345 per month for the ‘general’ farmers group during a typical cultivation season. However, the average willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid exposure to pesticides is approximately Rs. 950 and Rs. 620 for ‘hospitalised’ and ‘general’ farmers’ samples respectively. The estimated percentage contribution for WTP due to health costs, lost earnings, mitigating expenditure, and disutility are 29, 50, 5 and 16 per cent respectively for hospitalised farmers, while they are 32, 55, 8 and 5 per cent respectively for ‘general’ farmers. It is also shown that given market imperfections for most agricultural inputs, farmers are overusing pesticides with the expectation of higher future returns. This has led to an increase in inefficiency in farming practices which is not understood by the farmers. Third, it is found that various groundwater depletion studies in the economics literature have provided misleading optimal water extraction quantity levels. This is due to a failure to incorporate all production costs in the relevant models. It is only by incorporating quality changes to quantity deterioration, that it is possible to derive socially optimal levels. Empirical results clearly show that the benefits per hectare per month considering both the avoidance costs of deepening agro-wells by five feet from the existing average, as well as the avoidance costs of maintaining the water salinity level at 1.8 (mmhos/Cm), is approximately Rs. 4,350 for farmers in the Anuradhapura district and Rs. 5,600 for farmers in the Matale district.

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Planning on utilization of train-set is one of the key tasks of transport organization for passenger dedicated railway in China. It also has strong relationships with timetable scheduling and operation plans at a station. To execute such a task in a railway hub pooling multiple railway lines, the characteristics of multiple routing for train-set is discussed in term of semicircle of train-sets' turnover. In programming the described problem, the minimum dwell time is selected as the objectives with special derive constraints of the train-set's dispatch, the connecting conditions, the principle of uniqueness for train-sets, and the first plus for connection in the same direction based on time tolerance σ. A compact connection algorithm based on time tolerance is then designed. The feasibility of the model and the algorithm is proved by the case study. The result indicates that the circulation model and algorithm about multiple routing can deal with the connections between the train-sets of multiple directions, and reduce the train's pulling in or leaving impact on the station's throat.

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Magneto-rheological (MR) fluid damper is a semi-active control device that has recently received more attention by the vibration control community. But inherent nonlinear hysteresis character of magneto-rheological fluid dampers is one of the challenging aspects for utilizing this device to achieve high system performance. So the development of accurate model is necessary to take the advantage their unique characteristics. Research by others [3] has shown that a system of nonlinear differential equations can successfully be used to describe the hysteresis behavior of the MR damper. The focus of this paper is to develop an alternative method for modeling a damper in the form of centre average fuzzy interference system, where back propagation learning rules are used to adjust the weight of network. The inputs for the model are used from the experimental data. The resulting fuzzy interference system is satisfactorily represents the behavior of the MR fluid damper with reduced computational requirements. Use of the neuro-fuzzy model increases the feasibility of real time simulation.

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Understanding the motion characteristics of on-site objects is desirable for the analysis of construction work zones, especially in problems related to safety and productivity studies. This article presents a methodology for rapid object identification and tracking. The proposed methodology contains algorithms for spatial modeling and image matching. A high-frame-rate range sensor was utilized for spatial data acquisition. The experimental results indicated that an occupancy grid spatial modeling algorithm could quickly build a suitable work zone model from the acquired data. The results also showed that an image matching algorithm is able to find the most similar object from a model database and from spatial models obtained from previous scans. It is then possible to use the matched information to successfully identify and track objects.