A solution for estimates in software development projects

The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.

Fatores de risco auto reportados associados aos acidentes rodoviários : um estudo sobre os condutores portugueses de veículos ligeiros

RESUMO - Objetivos: Anualmente morrem cerca de 1,3 milhões de pessoas, a nível mundial, devido aos acidentes de viação. Também mais de 20 milhões de pessoas sofrem ferimentos ligeiros ou graves devido aos acidentes de viação que resultam em incapacidade temporária ou permanente. Desta forma, consideram-se os acidentes de viação, um grave problema de saúde pública, com custos elevados para as sociedades afetando a saúde das populações e economias de cada país. Este estudo pretendeu descrever e caracterizar os condutores de veículos ligeiros, residentes em Portugal Continental, abrangendo características sociodemográficas, experiência de condução e questões relativas a atitudes, opiniões e comportamentos. Por outro lado procurou-se analisar a associação entre as opiniões, atitudes e comportamentos, auto reportados e a ocorrência de um acidente de viação nos últimos três anos a fim de construir um modelo final preditivo do risco de sofrer um acidente de viação. Método: Foi realizado um estudo observacional analítico transversal baseado num questionário traduzido para a língua portuguesa e com origem no projeto europeu SARTRE 4. A população-alvo foram todos os condutores de veículos ligeiros possuidores de uma licença de condução e residentes em Portugal Continental, baseado numa amostra de igual dimensão à definida no estudo europeu SARTRE 4 (600 condutores de veículos ligeiros). Das 52 perguntas existentes, selecionaram-se pela análise de componentes principais (ACP) variáveis potencialmente independentes e complementares para as componentes opiniões, atitudes e comportamentos. Para além das medidas descritivas usuais, recorreu-se à regressão logística binária para analisar associações e obter um modelo que permitisse estimar a probabilidade de sofrer um acidente rodoviário em função das variáveis selecionadas referentes às opiniões, atitudes e comportamentos auto reportados. Resultados: Dos 612 condutores inquiridos, 62,7% (383) responderam não ter sofrido nenhum acidente de viação nos últimos três anos enquanto 37,3% (228) respondeu ter estado envolvido em pelo menos um acidente de viação com danos materiais ou feridos, no mesmo período. De uma forma geral, o típico condutor que referiu ter sofrido um acidente nos últimos três anos é homem com mais de 65 anos de idade, com o 1º ensino básico, viúvo e sem filhos, não empregado e reside numa área urbana. Os condutores residentes numa área suburbana apresentaram um risco 5,368 mais elevado de sofrer um acidente de viação em relação aos condutores que habitam numa zona rural (IC 95%: 2,344-12,297; p<0,001). Os condutores que foram apenas submetidos uma vez a um controlo de álcool, nos últimos três anos, durante o exercício da condução apresentaram um risco 3,009 superior de sofrer um acidente de viação em relação aos condutores que nunca foram fiscalizados pela polícia (IC 95%: 1,949-4,647, p<0,001). Os condutores que referiram muito frequentemente parar para dormir quando se sentem cansados a conduzir têm uma probabilidade inferior de 81% de sofrer um acidente de viação em relação aos condutores que nunca o fazem (IC 95%: 0,058-0,620; p=0,006). Os condutores que quando cansados raramente bebem um café/bebida energética têm um risco de 4,829 superior de sofrer um acidente de viação do que os condutores que sempre o referiram fazer (IC 95%:1,807-12,903; p=0,002). Conclusões: Os resultados obtidos em relação aos fatores comportamentais vão ao encontro da maioria dos fatores de risco associados aos acidentes de viação referidos na literatura. Ainda assim, foram identificadas novas associações entre o risco de sofrer um acidente e as opiniões e as atitudes auto reportadas que através de estudos de maiores dimensões populacionais poderão vir a ser mais exploradas. Este trabalho vem reforçar a necessidade urgente de novas estratégias de intervenção, principalmente na componente comportamental, direcionadas aos grupos de risco, mantendo as existentes.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Geographic weighted regression: applicability to epidemiological studies of leprosy

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Geographic information systems (GIS) enable public health data to be analyzed in terms of geographical variability and the relationship between risk factors and diseases. This study discusses the application of the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model to health data to improve the understanding of spatially varying social and clinical factors that potentially impact leprosy prevalence. METHODS: This ecological study used data from leprosy case records from 1998-2006, aggregated by neighborhood in the Duque de Caxias municipality in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the GWR model, the associations between the log of the leprosy detection rate and social and clinical factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Maps of the estimated coefficients by neighborhood confirmed the heterogeneous spatial relationships between the leprosy detection rates and the predictors. The proportion of households with piped water was associated with higher detection rates, mainly in the northeast of the municipality. Indeterminate forms were strongly associated with higher detections rates in the south, where access to health services was more established. CONCLUSIONS: GWR proved a useful tool for epidemiological analysis of leprosy in a local area, such as Duque de Caxias. Epidemiological analysis using the maps of the GWR model offered the advantage of visualizing the problem in sub-regions and identifying any spatial dependence in the local study area.

Operações de vigilância transfronteiras

This master dissertation is a small and humble contribution to a better assumption of the national position on the provisions of Article 40 of the Schengen Implementing Convention, particularly regarding authorities responsible for the implementation of border surveillance. And, above all, aims to be an asset to the strategic definition of this matter within the Public Security Police. To fulfill this aim, we tried to reconcile, against the almost non-existent bibliographic support frame, the professional experience of the several roles in the criminal area of Public Security Police and as a Group 7 National Expert (Mobile Organised Crime Groups) for EU Policy Cicle 2011-2013 – EMPACT Projects (European Platform Against Threats criminal Multidisciplinary) –, with the opinion conveyed by commanders, who perform management functions in the criminal structure of the Public Security Police or, not exercising, to be recognized with high merit in the criminal area.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

Association between LDL-C, Non HDL-C, and Apolipoprotein B Levels with Coronary Plaque Regression

Background:Previous reports have inferred a linear relationship between LDL-C and changes in coronary plaque volume (CPV) measured by intravascular ultrasound. However, these publications included a small number of studies and did not explore other lipid markers.Objective:To assess the association between changes in lipid markers and regression of CPV using published data.Methods:We collected data from the control, placebo and intervention arms in studies that compared the effect of lipidlowering treatments on CPV, and from the placebo and control arms in studies that tested drugs that did not affect lipids. Baseline and final measurements of plaque volume, expressed in mm3, were extracted and the percentage changes after the interventions were calculated. Performing three linear regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between percentage and absolute changes in lipid markers and percentage variations in CPV.Results:Twenty-seven studies were selected. Correlations between percentage changes in LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and percentage changes in CPV were moderate (r = 0.48, r = 0.47, and r = 0.44, respectively). Correlations between absolute differences in LDL-C, non‑HDL-C, and ApoB with percentage differences in CPV were stronger (r = 0.57, r = 0.52, and r = 0.79). The linear regression model showed a statistically significant association between a reduction in lipid markers and regression of plaque volume.Conclusion:A significant association between changes in different atherogenic particles and regression of CPV was observed. The absolute reduction in ApoB showed the strongest correlation with coronary plaque regression.

Optimal designs for mixed effects poisson regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

Optimal designs for the prediction in hierarchical random coefficient regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

T Cells Bearing a Chimeric Antigen Receptor against Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen Mediate Vascular Disruption and Result in Tumor Regression.

Aberrant blood vessels enable tumor growth, provide a barrier to immune infiltration, and serve as a source of protumorigenic signals. Targeting tumor blood vessels for destruction, or tumor vascular disruption therapy, can therefore provide significant therapeutic benefit. Here, we describe the ability of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-bearing T cells to recognize human prostate-specific membrane antigen (hPSMA) on endothelial targets in vitro as well as in vivo. CAR T cells were generated using the anti-PSMA scFv, J591, and the intracellular signaling domains: CD3ζ, CD28, and/or CD137/4-1BB. We found that all anti-hPSMA CAR T cells recognized and eliminated PSMA(+) endothelial targets in vitro, regardless of the signaling domain. T cells bearing the third-generation anti-hPSMA CAR, P28BBζ, were able to recognize and kill primary human endothelial cells isolated from gynecologic cancers. In addition, the P28BBζ CAR T cells mediated regression of hPSMA-expressing vascular neoplasms in mice. Finally, in murine models of ovarian cancers populated by murine vessels expressing hPSMA, the P28BBζ CAR T cells were able to ablate PSMA(+) vessels, cause secondary depletion of tumor cells, and reduce tumor burden. Taken together, these results provide a strong rationale for the use of CAR T cells as agents of tumor vascular disruption, specifically those targeting PSMA. Cancer Immunol Res; 3(1); 68-84. ©2014 AACR.

Giant warts in a kidney transplant patient: regression with sirolimus.

Purpose: Recent reports have suggested that intraabdominal postoperative infection is associated with higher rates of overall and local recurrence and cancer-specific mortality. However, the mechanisms responsible for this association are unknown. We hypothesized that the greater inflammatory response in patients with postoperative intraabdominal infection is associated to an increase in local and systemic angiogenesis. Methods: We designed a prospective cohorts study with matched controls. Patients with postoperative intra-abdominal infection (abscess and/or anastomotic leakage) (group 1; n=17) after elective colorectal cancer resection operated on for cure were compared to patients with an uncomplicated postoperative course (group 2; n=17). IL-6 and VEGF levels were determined by ELISA in serum and peritoneal fluid at baseline, 48 hours and postoperative day 4 or at the time the peritoneal infection occurred. Results: No differences were observed in age, gender, preoperative CEA, tumor stage and location and type of procedure performed. Although there were no differences in serum IL-6 levels at 48 hours, this pro-inflammatory cytokine was higher in group 1 on postoperative day 4 (group 1: 21533 + 27900 vs. group 2: 1130 + 3563 pg/ml; p < 0.001). Serum VEGF levels were higher in group 1 on postoperative day 4 (group 1: 1212 + 1025 vs. group 2: 408 + 407 pg/ml; p < 0.01). Peritoneal fluid VEGF levels were also higher in group 1 at 48 hours (group 1: 4857 + 4384 vs. group 2: 630 + 461 pg/ml; p < 0.001) and postoperative day 4 (group 1: 32807 + 98486 vs. group 2: 1002 + 1229 pg/ml; p < 0.001). A positive correlation between serum IL-6 and VEGF serum levels was observed on postoperative day 4 (r=0.7; p<0.01). Conclusions: These results suggest that not only the inflammatory response but also the angiogenic pathways are stimulated in patients with intra-abdominal infection after surgery for colorectal cancer. The implications of this finding on long-term follow-up need to be evaluated.

Long-term outcome after cognitive and behavioral regression in nonlesional epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow-wave sleep.

PURPOSE: To present the long-term follow-up of 10 adolescents and young adults with documented cognitive and behavioral regression as children due to nonlesional focal, mainly frontal, epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow wave sleep (CSWS). METHODS: Past medical and electroencephalography (EEG) data were reviewed and neuropsychological tests exploring main cognitive functions were administered. KEY FINDINGS: After a mean duration of follow-up of 15.6 years (range, 8-23 years), none of the 10 patients had recovered fully, but four regained borderline to normal intelligence and were almost independent. Patients with prolonged global intellectual regression had the worst outcome, whereas those with more specific and short-lived deficits recovered best. The marked behavioral disorders resolved in all but one patient. Executive functions were neither severely nor homogenously affected. Three patients with a frontal syndrome during the active phase (AP) disclosed only mild residual executive and social cognition deficits. The main cognitive gains occurred shortly after the AP, but qualitative improvements continued to occur. Long-term outcome correlated best with duration of CSWS. SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings emphasize that cognitive recovery after cessation of CSWS depends on the severity and duration of the initial regression. None of our patients had major executive and social cognition deficits with preserved intelligence, as reported in adults with early destructive lesions of the frontal lobes. Early recognition of epilepsy with CSWS and rapid introduction of effective therapy are crucial for a best possible outcome.

Innovation sources and productivity in Catalonian firms: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation -intramural and external R&D- on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalonian firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and knowledge-intensive services. JEL codes: O300, C100, O140. Keywords: Innovation sources, R&D, Productivity, Quantile regression