From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions

The translation of an ensemble of model runs into a probability distribution is a common task in model-based prediction. Common methods for such ensemble interpretations proceed as if verification and ensemble were draws from the same underlying distribution, an assumption not viable for most, if any, real world ensembles. An alternative is to consider an ensemble as merely a source of information rather than the possible scenarios of reality. This approach, which looks for maps between ensembles and probabilistic distributions, is investigated and extended. Common methods are revisited, and an improvement to standard kernel dressing, called ‘affine kernel dressing’ (AKD), is introduced. AKD assumes an affine mapping between ensemble and verification, typically not acting on individual ensemble members but on the entire ensemble as a whole, the parameters of this mapping are determined in parallel with the other dressing parameters, including a weight assigned to the unconditioned (climatological) distribution. These amendments to standard kernel dressing, albeit simple, can improve performance significantly and are shown to be appropriate for both overdispersive and underdispersive ensembles, unlike standard kernel dressing which exacerbates over dispersion. Studies are presented using operational numerical weather predictions for two locations and data from the Lorenz63 system, demonstrating both effectiveness given operational constraints and statistical significance given a large sample.

Scattering by rough surfaces: the Dirichlet problem for the Helmholtz equation in a non-locally perturbed half-plane

We consider the Dirichlet boundary value problem for the Helmholtz equation in a non-locally perturbed half-plane, this problem arising in electromagnetic scattering by one-dimensional rough, perfectly conducting surfaces. We propose a new boundary integral equation formulation for this problem, utilizing the Green's function for an impedance half-plane in place of the standard fundamental solution. We show, at least for surfaces not differing too much from the flat boundary, that the integral equation is uniquely solvable in the space of bounded and continuous functions, and hence that, for a variety of incident fields including an incident plane wave, the boundary value problem for the scattered field has a unique solution satisfying the limiting absorption principle. Finally, a result of continuous dependence of the solution on the boundary shape is obtained.

Probability functions to build composite indicators: a methodology to measure environmental impacts of genetically modified crops

There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which this paper aims to contribute. First, data on environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) and conventional crops are collected from peer-reviewed journals, and secondly an analysis is conducted in order to examine which crop type is less harmful for the environment. Published data on environmental impacts are measured using an array of indicators, and their analysis requires their normalisation and aggregation. Taking advantage of composite indicators literature, this paper builds composite indicators to measure the impact of GM and conventional crops in three dimensions: (1) non-target key species richness, (2) pesticide use, and (3) aggregated environmental impact. The comparison between the three composite indicators for both crop types allows us to establish not only a ranking to elucidate which crop is more convenient for the environment but the probability that one crop type outperforms the other from an environmental perspective. Results show that GM crops tend to cause lower environmental impacts than conventional crops for the analysed indicators.

Transreal limits and elementary functions

We extend all elementary functions from the real to the transreal domain so that they are defined on division by zero. Our method applies to a much wider class of functions so may be of general interest.

IntFOLD: an integrated server for modelling protein structures and functions from amino acid sequences

IntFOLD is an independent web server that integrates our leading methods for structure and function prediction. The server provides a simple unified interface that aims to make complex protein modelling data more accessible to life scientists. The server web interface is designed to be intuitive and integrates a complex set of quantitative data, so that 3D modelling results can be viewed on a single page and interpreted by non-expert modellers at a glance. The only required input to the server is an amino acid sequence for the target protein. Here we describe major performance and user interface updates to the server, which comprises an integrated pipeline of methods for: tertiary structure prediction, global and local 3D model quality assessment, disorder prediction, structural domain prediction, function prediction and modelling of protein-ligand interactions. The server has been independently validated during numerous CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction) experiments, as well as being continuously evaluated by the CAMEO (Continuous Automated Model Evaluation) project. The IntFOLD server is available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/IntFOLD/

Identification of fractional-order transfer functions using a step excitation

This brief proposes a new method for the identification of fractional order transfer functions based on the time response resulting from a single step excitation. The proposed method is applied to the identification of a three-dimensional RC network, which can be tailored in terms of topology and composition to emulate real time systems governed by fractional order dynamics. The results are in excellent agreement with the actual network response, yet the identification procedure only requires a small number of coefficients to be determined, demonstrating that the fractional order modelling approach leads to very parsimonious model formulations.

Biodiversity and resilience of ecosystem functions

Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their ‘resilience’) is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin.

Toeplitz operators on Dirichlet-Besov spaces

We study Toeplitz operators on the Besov spaces in the case of the open unit disk. We prove that a symbol satisfying a weak Lipschitz type condition induces a bounded Toeplitz operator. Such symbols do not need to be bounded functions or have continuous extensions to the boundary of the open unit disk. We discuss the problem of the existence of nontrivial compact Toeplitz operators, and also consider Fredholm properties and prove an index formula.

Cosmic shear requirements on the wavelength dependence of telescope point spread functions

Cosmic shear requires high precision measurement of galaxy shapes in the presence of the observational point spread function (PSF) that smears out the image. The PSF must therefore be known for each galaxy to a high accuracy. However, for several reasons, the PSF is usually wavelength dependent; therefore, the differences between the spectral energy distribution of the observed objects introduce further complexity. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the wavelength dependence of the PSF, focusing on instruments in which the PSF size is dominated by the diffraction limit of the telescope and which use broad-band filters for shape measurement. We first calculate biases on cosmological parameter estimation from cosmic shear when the stellar PSF is used uncorrected. Using realistic galaxy and star spectral energy distributions and populations and a simple three-component circular PSF, we find that the colour dependence must be taken into account for the next generation of telescopes. We then consider two different methods for removing the effect: (i) the use of stars of the same colour as the galaxies and (ii) estimation of the galaxy spectral energy distribution using multiple colours and using a telescope model for the PSF. We find that both of these methods correct the effect to levels below the tolerances required for per cent level measurements of dark energy parameters. Comparison of the two methods favours the template-fitting method because its efficiency is less dependent on galaxy redshift than the broad-band colour method and takes full advantage of deeper photometry.

CCP1/Nna1 functions in protein turnover in mouse brain: Implications for cell death in Purkinje cell degeneration mice

Purkinje cell degeneration (pcd) mice have a mutation within the gene encoding cytosolic carboxypeptidase 1 (CCP1/Nna1), which has homology to metallocarboxypeptidases. To assess the function of CCP1/Nna1, quantitative proteomics and peptidomics approaches were used to compare proteins and peptides in mutant and wild-type mice. Hundreds of peptides derived from cytosolic and mitochondrial proteins are greatly elevated in pcd mouse hypothalamus, amygdala, cortex, prefrontal cortex, and striatum. However, the major proteins detected on 2-D gel electrophoresis were present in mutant and wild-type mouse cortex and hypothalamus at comparable levels, and proteasome activity is normal in these brain regions of pcd mice, suggesting that the increase in cellular peptide levels in the pcd mice is due to reduced degradation of the peptides downstream of the proteasome. Both nondegenerating and degenerating regions of pcd mouse brain, but not wild-type mouse brain, show elevated autophagy, which can be triggered by a decrease in amino acid levels. Taken together with previous studies on CCP1/Nna1, these data suggest that CCP1/Nna1 plays a role in protein turnover by cleaving proteasome-generated peptides into amino acids and that decreased peptide turnover in the pcd mice leads to cell death.-Berezniuk, I., Sironi, J., Callaway, M. B., Castro, L. M., Hirata, I. Y., Ferro, E. S., Fricker, L. D. CCP1/Nna1 functions in protein turnover in mouse brain: Implications for cell death in Purkinje cell degeneration mice. FASEB J. 24, 1813-1823 (2010). www.fasebj.org

On the Barnes double zeta and Gamma functions

We present a complete description of the analytic properties of the Barnes double zeta and Gamma functions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

THE IMPLICIT FUNCTION THEOREM FOR CONTINUOUS FUNCTIONS

In the present paper we obtain a new homological version of the implicit function theorem and some versions of the Darboux theorem. Such results are proved for continuous maps on topological manifolds. As a consequence. some versions of these classic theorems are proved when we consider differenciable (not necessarily C-1) maps.

Reaction functions for weakly bound systems

We propose a new technique to analyze total reaction cross sections. In this technique, which has been previously applied to fusion reactions, the experimental data are used to build a dimensionless reaction function, which does not depend oil the system size or details of the optical potential. In this way, total reaction cross sections for different systems can be directly compared. We employ this technique to perform a systematic study of reaction cross sections of weakly bound systems in different mass ranges, and compare their reaction functions with the ones of tightly bound systems with similar masses. We show that breakup reactions and neutron transfers in halo systems lead to large reaction functions, well above the ones of typical tightly or weakly bound stable systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An eigenvalue problem for the biharmonic operator on Z(2)-symmetric regions

In this work we show that the eigenvalues of the Dirichlet problem for the biharmonic operator are generically simple in the set Of Z(2)-symmetric regions of R-n, n >= 2, with a suitable topology. To accomplish this, we combine Baire`s lemma, a generalised version of the transversality theorem, due to Henry [Perturbation of the boundary in boundary value problems of PDEs, London Mathematical Society Lecture Note Series 318 (Cambridge University Press, 2005)], and the method of rapidly oscillating functions developed in [A. L. Pereira and M. C. Pereira, Mat. Contemp. 27 (2004) 225-241].