The effect of focusing on loan decisions

In this paper we investigate some implications of recent results about salience on loan decisions. Using the framework of focus-weighted utility we show that consumers might take out loans even when that yield them negative utility. We claim however, that consumers are more prudent in their decisions and might be less likely to take out such loans when the usual fixed- and increasing-installment plans are coupled with a decreasing-installment option. We argue that harmful loan consumption, especially in the case of loans with increasing-installments (e.g. alternative mortgage loans), could be decreased if a policy would prescribe presentation of loan repayment schedules in a way that employs this effect. Moreover, using the model of focus-weighted utility we give a possible explanation for the unpopularity of decreasing-installment plans, the success of increasing-installment plans and their higher default rate during the financial crisis.

Vezetőkkel szemben támasztott munkaerő-piaci kompetenciaelvárások a Heti Világgazdaság és a The Economist álláshirdetéseinek elemzése alapján (Job market competency requirements for managers on the basis of the analysis of job advertisements in the Heti Világgazdaság and The Economist)

A szervezet dolgozói között kiemelt fontosságúak a vezetők, hiszen döntéseikkel, működésükkel a szervezet életét közvetlenül, és sokszor hosszú távra befolyásolják. Annak a vállalatnak, mely megtartani, növelni szeretné piaci pozícióját, különös hangsúlyt kell fektetnie vezetőinek kiválasztására, a későbbiekben pedig fejlesztésére. A szerző cikkében azt mutatja be, hogy a közgazdászképzettséggel rendelkező vezetők iránti munkaerő-piaci kereslet (a HVG-hirdetések elemzése alapján) milyen minőségi jellemzőket mutatott 2000–2009 között. A szerző részletesen ismerteti az eredményeket, melyek értelmezéséhez a Spencer és munkatársai által kidolgozott kompetenciamodell saját továbbfejlesztett változatát használja fel. Kitekintés céljával a magyar eredmények mellett bemutatja, hogy egy más gazdasági struktúrával, kultúrával rendelkező országban hogyan alakultak a vezetőkkel szemben támasztott kompetencia-elvárások. Az eredmények – melyeket más hazai felmérések is alátámasztanak – azt tükrözik, hogy a magyar vezetőkkel szemben támasztott munkaerő-piaci kompetencia-elvárások eltérnek a szakmai várakozásoktól és élesen eltérő képet mutatnak a The Economist hirdetéselemzésének eredményétől. _________ The thesis that the most important factor which determines the competitiveness of future companies is the quality of human resources has received increasingly more emphasis in the literature on management. The managers of organizations have a key role since they can directly influence the life of the organization by their decisions and work, often for a long term. Therefore, a company which intends to maintain or improve its market position should place special emphasis on the selection, and later on the development of its managers. In the present paper the author presents the characteristic features of job market demand for managers with qualifications in economics between 2000 and 2009 (on the basis of the analysis of job advertisements published in the economic weekly paper Heti Világgazdaság). The author gives a detailed analysis of the results using the competence model developed by Spencer et al. and further developed by the author. In addition to the Hungarian results, the paper also provides an overview of how managers are selected in a country with a different economic structure and culture. The results – also supported by other surveys conducted in Hungary – demonstrate that the competence expectations of the job market for Hungarian managers fail to meet professional expectations; the picture is sharply different from what the analysis of job advertisements published in The Economist show, and the competence expectation changed very little, though quite strikingly, over the period under discussion.

The effect of focusing on loan decisions

In this paper we investigate some implications of recent results about salience on loan decisions. Using the framework of focus-weighted utility we show that consumers might take out loans even when that yield them negative utility. We claim however, that consumers are more prudent in their decisions and might be less likely to take out such loans when the usual fixed- and increasing-installment plans are coupled with a decreasing-installment option. We argue that harmful loan consumption, especially in the case of loans with increasing-installments (e.g. alternative mortgage loans), could be decreased if a policy would prescribe presentation of loan repayment schedules in a way that employs this effect. Moreover, using the model of focus-weighted utility we give a possible explanation for the unpopularity of decreasing-installment plans, the success of increasing-installment plans and their higher default rate during the financial crisis.

Taiwanese faculty and administrators' perceptions and preferences toward shared governance

This study investigated the perceptions, attitudes, preferences, and actual reported degree of faculty participation in decision-making in Taiwanese universities. It was aimed at exploring possible agreements and disagreements between the faculty and administrators concerning these perceptions, and between the actual and preferred degree of faculty participation in both groups. ^ Seven questions were addressed in this study: (a) What are the most and the least reported areas of faculty involvement in decision making? (b) What are the most and the least preferred areas of faculty involvement in decision-making? (c) Is there a difference between faculty and administrators' reports of faculty involvement in decision-making? (d) Is there a difference between faculty and administrators in their preference for faculty involvement in decision-making? (e) Among the faculty, is reported involvement different from preferred involvement in decision-making? (f) Among the administrators, is their reported faculty involvement different from their preferred faculty involvement? and (g) Do faculty and administrators hold different attitudes toward faculty participation in decision-making? ^ The results indicated that: (a) Faculty had the highest level of involvement in academic decisions, and had the lowest level of involvement in developing general policies. (b) Both faculty and administrators had the highest preference for faculty involvement in academic decisions, and both of them had the lowest preference for faculty involvement in general policies. (c) Administrators reported a level of involvement for the faculty that was higher than the level that the faculty themselves reported. (d) Faculty desired a higher level of involvement than they currently have, and administrators also agreed that faculty should have greater involvement. ^ The interview results indicated that the presidents believed that faculty should participate in decision-making, but they also had negative feelings towards faculty who were enthusiastic about participating. The presidents showed their support of faculty participation in academic decisions, but not in other areas. ^ The results reflected the traditional Taiwanese social expectations of the role of faculty. When the range of decisions was narrowed to the academic context, the disagreements between the faculty, administrators, and university presidents disappeared. However, when the range of decisions was expanded, the agreement declined. ^

Three essays on self-employment transitions, organizational capital, and firm formation

This dissertation explores how economic, organizational, and personal factors affect self-employment transitions, occupational decisions, and firm formation activities of individuals at different positions in the skill distribution. The first essay of my dissertation studies how local unemployment rates differentially affect entry into self-employment by individuals at different places in the skill distribution. The empirical results show a positive correlation between local unemployment rates and entry into self-employment for low-ability workers, but not for high-ability workers. Including employer size to eliminate possible distortions showed that the positive association between unemployment and self-employment among low-ability workers is in fact driven by the small firm effect. Controlling for firm size yields a negative association between unemployment and self-employment among high-ability workers. Effects of organizational capital, human capital and physical capital, on the firm formation activities of people at distinct skill levels depend on the type of the industry which is chosen for the new firm. Two types of industries, capital-intensive and ability-intensive, are utilized to explore this hypothesis in the second essay. A capital-intensive industry requires more physical investment, and consequently more funds, whereas, an ability-intensive industry requires more human capital. It is shown that high human capital requirements are associated with higher earnings among the most able individuals, and therefore makes them more likely to found firms in an ability-intensive industry. Wealthy people are more likely to establish both capital-intensive and ability-intensive firms, even though the amount of funds necessary for two industry types differs. Moreover, entry into both industries is predicted to happen later in life due to the removal of entry barriers constituted by required investment spending using savings when old. Empirical mixed results are observed. The third essay investigates earning differentials between future entrepreneurs and their non-entrepreneurial colleagues. Results show that high-ability firm-owners in an ability-intensive industry were earning more than those that remained in wage-work, whereas, low-ability firm-owners in a capital-intensive industry were earning less than those remaining in paid-work.

Native American Gaming: Promises and Prospects

The Indian Gaming Regulatory Act of 1988 was intended to provide a statutory basis for the growth of Indian gaming. This article explains that the intentions of the act, when coupled with court decisions and a competitive economic environment, may be the basis for federal intervention in the gaming industry, specifically for Native American gaming. The author reviews the history of programs and promises, the magnitude of the total gaming industry, and the role of Native American gaming.

The survival and stock performance of emerging country firms in the United States

Many firms from emerging markets flocked to developed countries at high cost with hopes of acquiring strategic assets that are difficult to obtain in home countries. Adequate research has focused on the motivations and strategies of emerging country firms' (ECFs') internationalization, while limited studies have explored their survival in advanced economies years after their venturing abroad. Due to the imprinting effect of home country institutions that inhibit their development outside their home market, ECFs are inclined to hire executives with international background and affiliate to world-wide organizations for the purpose of linking up with the global market, embracing multiple perspectives for strategic decisions, and absorbing the knowledge of foreign markets. However, the effects of such orientation on survival are under limited exploration. Motivated by the discussion above, I explore ECFs' survival and stock performance in a developed country (U.S.). Applying population ecology, signaling theory and institutional theory, the dissertation investigates the characteristics of ECFs that survived in the developed country (U.S.), tests the impacts of global orientation on their survival, and examines how global-oriented activities (i.e. joining United Nations Global Compact) affect their stock performance. The dissertation is structured in the form of three empirical essays. The first essay explores and compares different characteristics of ECFs and developed country firms (DCFs) that managed to survive in the U.S. The second essay proposes the concept of global orientation, and tests its influences on ECFs' survival. Employing signaling theory and institutional theory, the third essay investigates stock market reactions to announcements of United Nation Global Compact (UNGC) participation. The dissertation serves to explore the survival of ECFs in the developed country (U.S.) by comparison with DCFs, enriching traditional theories by testing non-traditional arguments in the context of ECFs' foreign operation, and better informing practitioners operating ECFs about ways of surviving in developed countries and improving stockholders' confidence in their future growth.

A Review of Merger and Acquisition Wave Literature: Proposing Future Research in the Restaurant Industry

The purpose of this study is to identify research trends in Merger and Acquisition waves in the restaurant industry and propose future research directions by thoroughly reviewing existing Merger and Acquisition related literature. Merger and Acquisition has been extensively used as a strategic management tool for fast growth in the restaurant industry. However, there has been a very limited amount of literature that focuses on Merger & Acquisition in the restaurant industry. Particular, no known study has been identified that examined M&A wave and its determinants. A good understanding of determinants of M&A wave will help practitioners identify important factors that should be considered before making M&A decisions and predict the optimal timing for successful M&A transactions. This study examined literature on six U.S M&A waves and their determinants and summarized main explanatory factors examined, statistical methods, and theoretical frameworks. Inclusion of unique macroeconomic factors of the restaurant industry and the use of factor analysis are suggested for future research.

A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

The Abundance and Behavioral Ecology of Cape Cod Gray Seals Under Predation Risk From White Sharks

The ultimate goal of wildlife recovery is abundance growth of a species, though it must also involve the reestablishment of the species’ ecological role within ecosystems frequently modified by humans. Reestablishment and subsequent recovery may depend on the species’ degree of adaptive behavior as well as the duration of their functional absence and the extent of ecosystem alteration. In cases of long extirpations or extensive alteration, successful reestablishment may entail adjusting foraging behavior, targeting new prey species, and encountering unfamiliar predatory or competitive regimes. Recovering species must also increasingly tolerate heightened anthropogenic presence, particularly within densely inhabited coastal zones. In recent decades, gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) recovered from exploitation, depletion, and partial extirpation in the Northwest Atlantic. On Cape Cod, MA, USA, gray seals have reestablished growing breeding colonies and seasonally interact with migratory white sharks (Carcarodon carcharias). Though well-studied in portions of their range due to concerns over piscivorous impacts on valuable groundfish, there are broad knowledge gaps regarding their ecological role to US marine ecosystems. Furthermore, there are few studies that explicitly analyze gray seal behavior under direct risk of documented shark predation.

In this dissertation, I apply a behavioral and movement ecology approach to telemetry data to understand gray seal abundance and activity patterns along the coast of Cape Cod. This coastal focus complements extensive research documenting and describing offshore movement and foraging behavior and allows me to address questions about movement decisions and risk allocation. Using beach counts of seals visible in satellite imagery, I estimate the total regional abundance of gray seals using correction factors from haul out behavior and demonstrate a sizeable prey base of gray seals locally. Analyzing intra-annual space use patterns, I document small, concentrated home ranges utilizing nearshore habitats that rapidly expand with shifting activity budgets to target disperse offshore habitats following seasonal declines in white sharks. During the season of dense shark presence, seals conducted abbreviated nocturnal foraging trips structured temporally around divergent use of crepuscular periods. The timing of coastal behavior with different levels of twilight indicate risk allocation patterns with diel cycles of empirical white shark activity. The emergence of risk allocation to explain unique behavioral and spatial patterns observed in these gray seals points to the importance of the restored predator-prey dynamic in gray seal behavior along Cape Cod.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

The Causes and Effects of Consumer Competence Perceptions

Consumers are constantly making consumption decisions and engaging in marketplace activities that require some level of competence. In other words, consumers possess and require some knowledge, skills, and abilities to engage in the marketplace and obtain what they want. But what causes consumers to infer they are or are not competent? And, what are the consequences of these competence inferences on consumer behaviour? This dissertation examines the role consumption plays in consumers’ inferences of their own competence to enhance our understanding of these issues. By integrating the literature on competence and attributions of blame, this dissertation develops a theory for when and how consumption influences self-perceptions of competence and how these self-perceptions of competence impact future consumer behaviours. Evidence from five studies suggests that consumers infer their own competence from their consumption outcomes, despite who is actually responsible for causing these outcomes. This means consumers potentially see themselves as incompetent for negative outcomes that are entirely firm-caused. This dissertation argues that people infer their own competence from firm-caused outcomes because they conflate their decisions made prior to an outcome with the cause of that outcome. This dissertation also examines how these variations in self-perceptions of competence can influence future consumer behaviours.

Disability Discrimination: Obesity and the Court of Justice of the European Union’s decision in Karsten Kaltoft v Billund Kommune Case C-354/13 ECJ

Walker and Karsten are two important decisions in disability discrimination law – not solely on the basis of their legal and practical repercussions for the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU), respectively, but because they capture the very ideological spirit of domestic and European anti-discrimination legislation. The former directly relates to disability discrimination in the UK and the entire EU is feeling the brunt of the Court of Justice of the European Union’s decision in the latter. This article explores the impact of both these decisions and to what extent the obese or those suffering from a functional overlay are now protected from being discriminated against by the Framework Directive 2000/78 and the United Kingdom’s Equality Act 2010.

Withdrawal of Antidementia Drugs in Older People: Who, When and How?

The evidence base to guide withdrawal of antidementia medications in older people with dementia is limited; while some randomised controlled studies have considered discontinuation of cholinesterase inhibitors, no such studies examining discontinuation of the N-Methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist memantine have been conducted to date. The purpose of this opinion article was to summarise the existing evidence on withdrawal of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine, to highlight the key considerations for clinicians when making these prescribing decisions and to offer guidance as to when and how treatment might be discontinued. Until the evidence-base is enhanced by the findings of large scale randomised controlled discontinuation trials of ChEIs and memantine which use multiple, clinically relevant cognitive, functional and behavioural outcome measures, clinicians’ prescribing decisions involve balancing the risks of discontinuation with side-effects and costs of continued treatment. Such decisions must be highly individualised and patient-centred.

DESCRIBING SLEEP AND SEDATION PRACTICES IN THE ICU: A MULTINATIONAL SURVEY

Introduction Sleep disturbances are common in critically ill patients treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) with the potential for serious consequences and long-term effects on health outcomes and patient morbidity.
Objectives Our aim was to describe sleep management and sedation practices of adult ICUs in ten countries and to evaluate roles and responsibilities of the ICU staff in relation to key sleep and sedation decisions.
Methods A multicenter, self-administered survey sent to nurse managers of adult ICUs across 10 countries. The questionnaire comprised four domains: sleep characteristics of the critically ill; sleep and sedation practices; non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions used to improve sleep; and the autonomy and influence of nurses on sleeping practices in the ICU.
Results Overall response rate was 66% (range 32% UK to 100% Cyprus), providing data from 522 ICUs. In all countries, the most frequent patient characteristic perceived to identify sleep was lying quietly with closed eyes (N=409, 78%) (range 92% Denmark to 36% Italy). The most commonly used sedation scale was the Richmond Agitation-Sedation Score (RASS) (N=220, 42%) (range 81% UK to 0% Denmark, Cyprus where most ICUs used the Ramsay score). In most ICUs, selection of sleep medication (N=265, 51%) and assessment of effect (N=309, 59%) was performed by physicians and nurses based on collaborative discussion. In a minority of ICUs (N=161, 31%), decisions and assessments were made by physicians alone. The most commonly used (in all countries) non-pharmacological intervention to promote sleep was reducing ICU staff noise (N=473, 91%) (range 100% Denmark, Norway to 78% Canada). Only 95 ICUs (18%) used earplugs on a frequent basis (range 0% Greece, Cyprus, Denmark to 57% Sweden). Propofol was the drug used most commonly for sedation (N=359, 69%) (range 96% Sweden to 29% Canada). Chloral hydrate was used by only 63 (12%) ICUs (range 0% Greece, Cyprus, Denmark, Italy to 56% Germany). Sedation scales were used on a routine basis by 77% of the 522 ICUs. Participants scored nursing autonomy for sleep and sedation management as moderate; median score of 5 (scale of 0 to 10), range 7 (Canada, Greece, Sweden) to 4 (Norway, Poland). Nursing influence on sleep and sedation decisions was perceived considerable; median score 8, range 9 (Denmark) to 5 (Poland).
Conclusions We found considerable across country variation in sleep promotion and sedation management practices though most have adopted a sedation scale as recommended in professional society guidelines. Most ICUs in all countries used a range of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions to promote sleep. Most units reported inter-professional decision-making with nurses perceived to have substantial influence on sleep/sedation decisions.