Social Services in Times of Economic and Social Crisis: The case of Spain

The financial and economic crisis which originated in 2008 has had a severe impact on the population of the Southern European countries. The economic policies of austerity and public deficit control, as well as the neo-liberal and conservative social policies are redefining the public social protection systems, in particular the Social Services. In order to get to understand the current situation, we shall explain how the Social Services were developed in Spain and analyse the causes and consequences of the economic crisis. The working hypothesis is that the greater the increase on the population’s needs, the more developed the Social Services should be. We carried out a descriptive analysis of the situation as far as the social impacts of the crisis per region are concerned. We tested the hypothesis through a parametric model of analysis of variance (one-way ANOVA) triangulating with the non-parametric Kruscal-Wallis test. The working hypothesis failed. The regions with better developed Social Services show a lower level of poverty and social exclusion. The challenges that the public Social Services system faces in times of crisis is three-fold: 1) re-modelling of local administration and transferring of the municipal Social Services responsibilities to the regional administration; 2) an increase of the population at risk of poverty and social exclusion 3) impact on social policies.

Volatility transmission between stock and exchange-rate markets: A connectedness analysis

This paper empirically investigates volatility transmission among stock and foreign exchange markets in seven major world economies during the period July 1988 to January 2015. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each market. To gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness during the financial turmoil periods experienced in the sample period Our results suggest that slightly more than half of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets rather than by idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability.

Peripheral brain-derived neurotrophic factor levels in alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment: A comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is becoming a growing global problem, and there is an urgent need to identify reliable blood biomarkers of the risk and progression of this condition. A potential candidate is the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), which modulates major trophic effects in the brain. However, findings are apparently inconsistent regarding peripheral blood BDNF levels in AD patients vs. healthy people. We thus performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the studies that have examined peripheral BDNF levels in patients with AD or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy controls. We searched articles through PubMed, EMBASE, and hand searching. Over a total pool of 2061 potential articles, 26 met all inclusion criteria (including a total of 1584 AD patients, 556 MCI patients, and 1294 controls). A meta-analysis of BDNF levels between early AD and controls showed statistically significantly higher levels (SMD [95 % CI]: 0.72 [0.31, 1.13]) with no heterogeneity. AD patients with a low (<20) mini-mental state examination (MMSE) score had lower peripheral BDNF levels compared with controls (SMD [95 % CI]: -0.33 [-0.60, -0.05]). However, we found no statistically significant difference in blood (serum/plasma) BDNF levels between all AD patients and controls (standard mean difference, SMD [95 % CI]: -0.16 [-0.4, 0.07]), and there was heterogeneity among studies (P < 0.0001, I 2 = 85.8 %). There were no differences in blood BDNF levels among AD or MCI patients vs. controls by subgroup analyses according to age, sex, and drug use. In conclusion, this meta-analysis shows that peripheral blood BDNF levels seem to be increased in early AD and decreased in AD patients with low MMSE scores respectively compared with their age- and sex-matched healthy referents. At present, however, this could not be concluded from individual studies.

Inequality of income and poverty persistence in the Municipality of Bologna: a cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis through administrative data

This work is part of a project promoted by Emilia-Romagna that aims at encouraging research activities in order to support the innovation strategies of the regional economic system through the exploitation of new data sources. To gain this scope, a database containing administrative data is provided by the Municipality of Bologna. This is achieved by linking data from the Register Office of the Municipality and fiscal data coming from the tax returns submitted to the Revenue Agency and released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance for the period 2002-2017. The main purpose of the project is the analysis of the medium term financial and distributional trends of income of the citizens residing in the Municipality of Bologna. Exploiting this innovative source of data allow us to analyse the dynamics of income at municipal level, overcoming the lack of information in official survey-based statistic. We investigate these trends by building inequality indicators and by examining the persistence of in-work poverty. Our results represent an important informative element to improve the effectiveness and equity of welfare policies at the local level, and to guide the distribution of economic and social support and urban redevelopment interventions in different areas of the Municipality.

Suicide in urban New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994: Socio-economic and migrant interactions

Variation of suicide with socio-economic status (SES) in urban NSW (Australia) during 1985-1994, by sex and country or region of birth, was examined using Poisson regression analysis of vital statistics and population data (age greater than or similar to 15 yr). Quintiles of SES were defined by municipality of residence and comparisons of suicide by SES were adjusted for age and country (or region) of birth (COB), and examined by COB. Risk of suicide in females was 28% that of males for all adults and 21% for youth (age 15-24 yr). Suicide risk was lower in males from southern Europe, Middle East and Asia, and higher in northern and eastern European males, compared to the Australian-born. Risks for suicide increased significantly with decreasing SES in males, but not in females. The relationship of male suicide and SES was stronger when controlled for COB. For males, the relative risk of suicide, adjusted for age and COB, was 66% higher in the lowest SES quintile compared to the highest quintile, and 39% higher for youth (age 15-24 yr). For male suicide, the population attributable fraction for SES (less than the highest quintile) was 27%. Analysis of SES differentials in male suicide according to COB indicated a significant inverse suicide gradient in relation to SES for the Australian-born and those burn in New Zealand and the United Kingdom or fire. but not in non-English speaking COB groups, except for Asia. For Australian-born males, suicide risk was 71% higher in the lowest SES group (compared to the highest), adjusted for age. These findings indicate that SES plays an important role in male suicide rates among the Australian-born and migrants from English-speaking countries and Asia, and among youth; but not in female suicide, nor suicide in most non-English speaking migrant groups. Reduction in SES differentials through economic and social policies may reduce male suicide in lower SES groups and should be seen to be at least as important as individual level interventions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capital Intelectual: sua divulgação no setor bancário em Portugal

The importance of intangible resources has increased dramatically in recent years comparing to tangible ones. The economy in which we live is the result of competitive pressures that have imposed the implementation of business at an international level as well as a requirement in the application of sophisticated technologies that allow us to follow this fast evolution. In this age of information and innovation organizations will only survive if they are inserted in a global network of strategic relations, generically called as the network economy by Lev (2003). The service sector has stood out against the more traditional sectors of the economy. The intensive use of knowledge and a strong customer orientation created a new reality in today’s organizations: a growing importance attached to innovation, to the quality of products and services offered, to the information and communication technologies adopted, and to the creativity and particular abilities of human resources. The concept of intangible assets is more common in an accounting language and intellectual capital is most often applied in the context of management, being associated with a more comprehensive, multidimensional approach, representing all the knowledge that the institution owns and that it applies in the form of expertise, the creativity and organizational competencies that lead to innovation and to the sustained attainment of future economic benefits. An analysis of the scope of intellectual capital is fundamental to take more appropriate management decisions so that a more appropriate accounting treatment could be given by the accounting standardization organizations. This study intends to analyse the practices of information disclosure of the intellectual capital in the banking sector in Portugal, complementing the analysis of the disclosure of intangible assets in the context of accounting standards with the disclosure of intellectual capital in the context of organizational management. In particular, our main aims are to identify the extent of disclosure of intellectual capital made by banks in Portugal and also to identify the factors that determine such a disclosure. The disclosure in the context of accounting standards will be studied by checking the disclosure of intangible assets through the items listed in the International Accounting Standard 38 developed by the International Accounting Standards Board. The context of management was analysed by means of creating a voluntary disclosure index based on assumptions of the model Intellectus, developed by the Centro de Investigación sobre la Sociedad del Conocimiento – Instituto de Administración de Empresas (CIC-IADE) of the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid, and of the model Intellectual Capital Statement (made in Europe) (InCaS), both promoted by the European Commission and that we have adapted to the banking sector. When analysing the disclosure of intangible assets based on the context of accounting standards and the voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital, this study has tried to raise awareness about the importance of issuing reports on the intellectual capital as an alternative tool to take management decisions in the existing organizations and reflects the transparency and legitimacy that these institutions seek through a more extensive and more detailed information disclosure of their intellectual capital. Based on a complimentarily of economic theories, together with social and political theories, we tried to check the extent, evolution and tendencies of the compulsory disclosure of intangible assets and of the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital analysed in the period 2001-2011. Banks characteristics were also analysed in order to deduce those factors that determine or promote a larger disclosure in this sector. Based on these objectives, we adopted a longitudinal approach to explore the extent and the development of the disclosure of intangible assets as well as the factors that have determined it. Furthermore, we sought to assess the impact of the adoption of IAS 38 in the financial statements of the organizations in this sector. The disclosure index created on the basis of the disclosure requirements stated in IAS 38 from IASB was applied to the consolidated financial statements of the seventeen banks that rendered their statements in Portugal from 2001 to 2009. Since the information disclosed in the context of accounting standards may not have an important role as a management tool once it was not able to reflect what really contributes to the competitiveness and organizational growth, the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital was analysed according to the information obtained from the 2010 annual individual reports of the banks operating in Portugal in that year and from their respective websites in 2011. We tried to analyse the extent of the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital and of each of its components, human capital, structural capital and relational capital. The comparative analysis of their annual reports and their web pages allowed us to assess the incidence of the disclosure and discover what channel the banking sector focuses on when disclosing their intellectual capital. Also in this analysis the study of the disclosure determinants has allowed us to conclude about the influence of particular characteristics in the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital. The results of the analysis to the extent of the disclosure of intangible assets in the consolidated financial statements of the banking groups in Portugal in the period 2001-2009 have shown an average information disclosure of 0.24. This information disclosure evolved from an average value of 0.1940 in 2001 to 0.2778 in 2009. The average value is 0.8286 if it is only considered the disclosure of the intangible assets that the banks possessed. The evolution of this index means an increase in the average disclosure from 0.7852 in 2001 to 0.8788 in 2009. From the first results that are related to the extent of the disclosure of intangible assets in the financial statements, we can verify that the banking groups present a low disclosure level of these resources. However, when considering the disclosure of only the intangible assets that each institution owns, the disclosure level appears to be in compliance with the disclosure requirements for this sector. An evolution in the disclosure of intangible assets for the period considered was confirmed, showing an increase in the information disclosure of intangible assets in 2005, the year in which the accounting rules for intangible assets changed. The analysis that focused on the disclosure in the context of management tried to understand the extent, the incidence and the determinants of the voluntary information disclosure of intellectual capital in the annual reports of 2010 and on their web pages in 2011, studying the 32 banks operating in Portugal in this period. The average voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital in the 2010 annual reports is 0.4342 while that in web pages is 0.2907. A review of the components of the intellectual capital allowed us to assess the importance that the banks confer to each of these components. The data obtained show that the relational capital, and more specifically the business capital, is the most disclosed component by banks in Portugal both in the annual reports and in their institutional web pages, followed by the structural capital and, finally, by the human capital. The disclosure of the human capital and the structural capital is higher in the annual reports than that in the websites, while the relational capital is more disclosed in the websites than in the annual reports. The results have also shown that the banks make a complementary use of both sources when disclosing information about their structural capital and relational capital but they do not show any information about their human capital in their websites. We tried to prove the influence of factors that could determine the accounting disclosure and the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital in this sector. The change in the IASB accounting rules as from January 1st 2005 gave a greater disclosure of accounting information of intangible assets in the financial statements of banks. The bank size and corporate governance measures have statistically proved to have an influence on the extent of the accounting disclosure of intangible assets and on the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital. Economic and financial variables such as profitability, operating efficiency or solvency were not determinants of information disclosure. The instability that the banking sector has experienced in economic and financial indicators in recent years as a result of the global financial markets imbalance has worsen indicators such as profitability, efficiency and solvency and caused major discrepancies in the economic situation between banks in Portugal. This empirical analysis has contributed to confront the disclosure required by accounting rules performed in the financial statements of organizations with that performed in the main disclosure media which is available for entities and which is increasingly requested in the process of taking management decisions. It also allowed us to verify whether there is homogeneity between institutions in the fulfilment of the requirements for information disclosure of intangible assets. However, as for voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital, there are large disparities in the disclosure extent between organizations. Regardless of this sector specific characteristics, the voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital made by banks in Portugal follows the trends in other sectors and the practices adopted in other countries, namely regarding the amount of information disclosed, the incidence of the disclosure on the indicators of relational capital and the importance of variables such as size as determinants of disclosure of intellectual capital. For a further knowledge in this field, we created a specific index for the banking sector, considering appropriate indicators for an incisive, comprehensive analysis in order to consider the most relevant indicators of intellectual capital components. Besides, confronting the analysis of disclosure in the context of accounting standards with the study of voluntary disclosure brought a new analysis approach to the research on intellectual capital disclosure. With this study, we have also intended to raise greater awareness of the need for harmonization in the intellectual capital disclosure on the part of the regulatory banking authority by means of a demanding, consistent and transparent report of intellectual capital with simple, clear, objective indicators so that those interested in disclosing intellectual capital information in the organizations in this sector may obtain more harmonized and comparable information. A research on the disclosure quality of intellectual capital, together with the application of other analysis methodologies in this sector, might be a promising approach for future research. Applying the voluntary disclosure index to the same sector in other countries may also contribute to the knowledge of disclosure practices in different geographical environments. We highlight the relevance of further studies contributing to the harmonization and consistency in the presentation of an intellectual capital report so as to enable organizations to disclose the resources that contribute most to their competitiveness and growth.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Power law and entropy analysis of catastrophic phenomena

Catastrophic events, such as wars and terrorist attacks, tornadoes and hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and landslides, are always accompanied by a large number of casualties. The size distribution of these casualties has separately been shown to follow approximate power law (PL) distributions. In this paper, we analyze the statistical distributions of the number of victims of catastrophic phenomena, in particular, terrorism, and find double PL behavior. This means that the data sets are better approximated by two PLs instead of a single one. We plot the PL parameters, corresponding to several events, and observe an interesting pattern in the charts, where the lines that connect each pair of points defining the double PLs are almost parallel to each other. A complementary data analysis is performed by means of the computation of the entropy. The results reveal relationships hidden in the data that may trigger a future comprehensive explanation of this type of phenomena.

Legal and political regulation of higher education in Portugal: an evolutionary perspective on the current policy issues and the problem of order

The higher education system in Europe is currently under stress and the debates over its reform and future are gaining momentum. Now that, for most countries, we are in a time for change, in the overall society and the whole education system, the legal and political dimensions have gained prominence, which has not been followed by a more integrative approach of the problem of order, its reform and the issue of regulation, beyond the typical static and classical cost-benefit analyses. The two classical approaches for studying (and for designing the policy measures of) the problem of the reform of the higher education system - the cost-benefit analysis and the legal scholarship description - have to be integrated. This is the argument of our paper that the very integration of economic and legal approaches, what Warren Samuels called the legal-economic nexus, is meaningful and necessary, especially if we want to address the problem of order (as formulated by Joseph Spengler) and the overall regulation of the system. On the one hand, and without neglecting the interest and insights gained from the cost-benefit analysis, or other approaches of value for money assessment, we will focus our study on the legal, social and political aspects of the regulation of the higher education system and its reform in Portugal. On the other hand, the economic and financial problems have to be taken into account, but in a more inclusive way with regard to the indirect and other socio-economic costs not contemplated in traditional or standard assessments of policies for the tertiary education sector. In the first section of the paper, we will discuss the theoretical and conceptual underpinning of our analysis, focusing on the evolutionary approach, the role of critical institutions, the legal-economic nexus and the problem of order. All these elements are related to the institutional tradition, from Veblen and Commons to Spengler and Samuels. The second section states the problem of regulation in the higher education system and the issue of policy formulation for tackling the problem. The current situation is clearly one of crisis with the expansion of the cohorts of young students coming to an end and the recurrent scandals in private institutions. In the last decade, after a protracted period of extension or expansion of the system, i. e., the continuous growth of students, universities and other institutions are competing harder to gain students and have seen their financial situation at risk. It seems that we are entering a period of radical uncertainty, higher competition and a new configuration that is slowly building up is the growth in intensity, which means upgrading the quality of the higher learning and getting more involvement in vocational training and life-long learning. With this change, and along with other deep ones in the Portuguese society and economy, the current regulation has shown signs of maladjustment. The third section consists of our conclusions on the current issue of regulation and policy challenge. First, we underline the importance of an evolutionary approach to a process of change that is essentially dynamic. A special attention will be given to the issues related to an evolutionary construe of policy analysis and formulation. Second, the integration of law and economics, through the notion of legal economic nexus, allows us to better define the issues of regulation and the concrete problems that the universities are facing. One aspect is the instability of the political measures regarding the public administration and on which the higher education system depends financially, legally and institutionally, to say the least. A corollary is the lack of clear strategy in the policy reforms. Third, our research criticizes several studies, such as the one made by the OECD in late 2006 for the Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education, for being too static and neglecting fundamental aspects of regulation such as the logic of actors, groups and organizations who are major players in the system. Finally, simply changing the legal rules will not necessary per se change the behaviors that the authorities want to change. By this, we mean that it is not only remiss of the policy maker to ignore some of the critical issues of regulation, namely the continuous non-respect by academic management and administrative bodies of universities of the legal rules that were once promulgated. Changing the rules does not change the problem, especially without the necessary debates form the different relevant quarters that make up the higher education system. The issues of social interaction remain as intact. Our treatment of the matter will be organized in the following way. In the first section, the theoretical principles are developed in order to be able to study more adequately the higher education transformation with a modest evolutionary theory and a legal and economic nexus of the interactions of the system and the policy challenges. After describing, in the second section, the recent evolution and current working of the higher education in Portugal, we will analyze the legal framework and the current regulatory practices and problems in light of the theoretical framework adopted. We will end with some conclusions on the current problems of regulation and the policy measures that are discusses in recent years.

A fractional perspective to financial indices

The application of mathematical methods and computer algorithms in the analysis of economic and financial data series aims to give empirical descriptions of the hidden relations between many complex or unknown variables and systems. This strategy overcomes the requirement for building models based on a set of ‘fundamental laws’, which is the paradigm for studying phenomena usual in physics and engineering. In spite of this shortcut, the fact is that financial series demonstrate to be hard to tackle, involving complex memory effects and a apparently chaotic behaviour. Several measures for describing these objects were adopted by market agents, but, due to their simplicity, they are not capable to cope with the diversity and complexity embedded in the data. Therefore, it is important to propose new measures that, on one hand, are highly interpretable by standard personal but, on the other hand, are capable of capturing a significant part of the dynamical effects.

Multi-Objective and Financial Portfolio Optimization of Carrier-Sense Multiple Access Protocols with Cooperative Diversity

8th International Workshop on Multiple Access Communications (MACOM2015), Helsinki, Finland.