Comportamento eleitoral e a variável religiosa na decisão do voto: um estudo sobre eleitores neopentecostais

Apresentando como principal expoente a Igreja Universal do Reino de Deus, o segmento evangélico neopentecostal tem obtido sucesso em sua inserção político eleitoral, através da utilização de estratégias eleitorais características, como o cadastramento de fiéis, a adoção de campanhas oficiais distribuídas por região de acordo com o potencial do eleitorado e o uso da mídia própria e dos púlpitos para o marketing político. Inserida nos estudos de comportamento eleitoral, esta dissertação fará uma análise sobre os eleitores dos autodenominados políticos de Deus, com a utilização de surveys, dados eleitorais e pesquisa de campo. Através da aplicação da Teoria da Escolha Racional, será investigada a hipótese de que os eleitores neopentecostais não se distanciam da concepção de Homo politicus da teoria downsiana, agindo racionalmente quando atribuem seu voto a um irmão de fé.

Devolution and Electoral Politics in Scotland and Wales

Scully, Roger, and R. Wyn Jones, 'Devolution and Electoral Politics in Scotland and Wales', Publius, (2006) 36(1) pp.115-134 RAE2008

Hillary Clinton's Race: Did She Match the Presidential Prototype?

The present research addresses how voters’ perceptions of Hillary Clinton’s warmth and competence influenced decisions to vote for her in the 2008 Democratic primary. We apply research on gender stereotypes and perceptions of women leaders to demonstrate that voters perceived Clinton as highly competent but relatively less warm. Further, this research examines how perceptions of Clinton’s warmth and competence contributed to decisions to vote for her. Results suggest that perceptions of Clinton’s warmth and competence differentially predicted voting behavior for voters strongly and less strongly identified with their political party. This research provides a descriptive analysis of how voters’ beliefs about leaders can be colored by gender, and how such beliefs contribute to electing women candidates.

Choosing Union Representation: The Role of Attitudes and Emotions

In the United States, most unions are recognized by a majority vote of employees through union representation elections administered by the government. Most empirical studies of individual voting behavior during union representation elections use a rational choice model. Recently, however, some have posited that voting is often influenced by emotions. We evaluate competing hypotheses about the determinants of union voting behavior by using data collected from a 2010 representation election at Delta Air Lines, a US-based company. In addition to the older rational choice framework, multiple regression results provide support for an emotional choice model. Positive feelings toward the employer are statistically significantly related to voting ‘no’ in a representation election, while positive feelings toward the union are related to a ‘yes’ vote. Effect sizes for the emotion variables were generally larger than those for the rational choice variables, suggesting that emotions may play a key role in representation election outcomes.

On the Political Economy of Sequential Reforms

This paper proposes an explanation for why efficient reforms are not carried out when losers have the power to block their implementation, even though compensating them is feasible. We construct a signaling model with two-sided incomplete information in which a government faces the task of sequentially implementing two reforms by bargaining with interest groups. The organization of interest groups is endogenous. Compensations are distortionary and government types differ in the concern about distortions. We show that, when compensations are allowed to be informative about the government’s type, there is a bias against the payment of compensations and the implementation of reforms. This is because paying high compensations today provides incentives for some interest groups to organize and oppose subsequent reforms with the only purpose of receiving a transfer. By paying lower compensations, governments attempt to prevent such interest groups from organizing. However, this comes at the cost of reforms being blocked by interest groups with relatively high losses.

Political Influence, Economic Interests and Endogenous Tax Structure in a Computable Equilibrium Framework: with Applicatioon to the United States, 1973 and 1983

A full understanding of public affairs requires the ability to distinguish between the policies that voters would like the government to adopt, and the influence that different voters or group of voters actually exert in the democratic process. We consider the properties of a computable equilibrium model of a competitive political economy in which the economic interests of groups of voters and their effective influence on equilibrium policy outcomes can be explicitly distinguished and computed. The model incorporates an amended version of the GEMTAP tax model, and is calibrated to data for the United States for 1973 and 1983. Emphasis is placed on how the aggregation of GEMTAP households into groups within which economic and political behaviour is assumed homogeneous affects the numerical representation of interests and influence for representative members of each group. Experiments with the model suggest that the changes in both interests and influence are important parts of the story behind the evolution of U.S. tax policy in the decade after 1973.

Análisis de las críticas sobre asistencialismo estatal en la lucha contra la pobreza durante la presidencia de Álvaro Uribe Vélez (2002 - 2010), a través del Programa Familias en Acción

Durante el gobierno de Álvaro Uribe Vélez hubo un gran crecimiento económico en Colombia; sin embargo, al final de su mandato había más de 20 millones de personas en condición de pobreza, es decir casi la mitad de su población. Como los problemas que trata de resolver la política pública no tienen soluciones absolutas, cada gobierno debe apostarle a diferentes soluciones. Dado los buenos resultados en las primeras evaluaciones del programa de transferencias condicionadas Familias en Acción, el gobierno de Uribe aumentó su cobertura y número de beneficiados. Sin embargo, dicho fortalecimiento fue criticado por diferentes personalidades públicas del país por considerarlo asistencialista, clientelista, proclive al uso electoral, entre otros. La presente disertación, analiza dichas críticas y las posibles razones que llevaron al gobierno de Uribe a fortalecer y ampliar el programa. Al analizar una política pública, lo importante no es alabar o desvirtuar sus alcances, sino resaltar los aportes positivos y sus debilidades para continuar con lo que está dando resultados y tomar las medidas pertinentes respecto a los nuevos problemas que se presentan. Dadas las dimensiones de la pobreza en Colombia, este tema debe ser una prioridad de todos los ciudadanos; su solución no puede quedar en manos del gobierno o del mercado, sino que debe haber un debate serio al respecto.

El papel del miedo en la escogencia del electorado en las elecciones presidenciales del año 2002 en Colombia

El comportamiento electoral en comicios presidenciales y la decisión del voto en el país contempla una variedad de factores como lo son las características demográficas, la filiación partidista, los temas de campaña, el mensaje, la imagen, así como otras variables comúnmente estudiadas con el ánimo de relacionar su incidencia en los resultados electorales. Sin embargo, el presente texto no entra en las consideraciones que sobre la decisión del voto tienen dichos factores. Por el contrario, alude concretamente a un factor en particular que es el miedo y el papel que jugo este sentimiento en las elecciones presidenciales del año 2002 en Colombia como una alternativa más de los factores que pudieron influir en la escogencia del electorado como consecuencia del recrudecimiento de la violencia en el país en el marco de las negociaciones de paz con la Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC

Natural disasters and clientelism: the case of floods and landslides in Colombia

What are the effects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative effect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper finds that these events might be beneficial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in-flow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties benefited from the disaster. The result is robust to different specifications and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

Responsabilização política nos estados brasileiros: o voto econômico nas eleições para governador

O intuito desta dissertação é investigar a capacidade dos eleitores brasileiros em atribuir responsabilidade aos governadores dos estados e a seus partidos pelas políticas públicas estaduais no período após redemocratização, mais especificamente de 1990 em diante. De maneira breve, se tratou de verificar se a probabilidade de reeleição de um governador ou de perpetuação de seu partido no governo é influenciada pela performance econômica de seu estado, pela performance da economia nacional ou não é influenciada pela economia. Utilizando-se dos pressupostos das teorias do voto econômico, se pretendeu auferir a existência de algum dos dois padrões de responsabilização política de governadores apontados pela literatura: o voto econômico subnacional e o voto de referendo. Além disso, foi explorada a relação entre o desempenho fiscal do governador e probabilidade de reeleição. Também foi testada a possibilidade de que as diferenças entre os estados no contexto federativo contemporâneo sejam um fator mediador da relação entre economia e voto. De maneira geral, os resultados da pesquisa apontam para a existência de voto econômico subnacional mediado pelo grau de autonomia dos estados em relação ao governo federal e para a rejeição da tese do voto de referendo. Em estados mais dependentes os eleitores tendem a penalizar seus governadores por altos níveis de desemprego. Também o desempenho fiscal apareceu como uma variável importante para explicar a reeleição nos estados. Governadores que apresentam superávits correntes em anos eleitorais foram beneficiados eleitoralmente, contrariando a noção de que em democracias novas os políticos são capazes de melhorar seu desempenho eleitoral através de aumento do gasto público.

Rejeição e voto em eleição contemporânea: um estudo de caso da eleição à prefeitura do município de Natal/RN (2012)

Given the importance that political science and social sciences give studies of voting behavior, this study sought to fill this academic discussion another important element that makes up this complex set. From the campaign trail to City Christmas in 2012 work has been undertaken analysis of rejection in the first and second rounds of this election. For this analysis we used two sources of data: quantitative research, conducted by Search Consult the first and second rounds of elections, and the use of focus group technique, performed in the second round of elections. Knowing the various factors that may affect the voting decision, but also the dynamism that pervades a political dispute, seek, with this work, contribute to the deepening of the rejection of studies, aiming to bring subsidies presenting information to better explain the behavior studies election. The results showed that there is a less expressive, the chamda strong rejection. We speak of that rejection based on a political, historical and ideological. The reason for the weak presence of strong rejection seems to be little involvement of voters with politics and, consequently, low knowledge about politics and politicians. We observe, however, evidence of rejection volatile. We refer here to a kind of rejection that develops during the election process depending on the preference of the voter and according to the circumstances of the campaign. The data also lead us to conclude that television is as an instrument for the dissemination of ideas that can contribute in shaping the opinion of viewers. The role of political parties in representing the interests of the people have lost their strength in recent years. The data also show that, to the extent that increases the preference of voters in the electoral process, also increases its rejection

A campanha presidencial e o Vota Brasil em 2006: marketing e contexto político

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Norteando o voto: o impacto do Programa Bolsa Família no comportamento do eleitor do Norte do Brasil

A partir de diversas perspectivas analíticas acerca da eleição presidencial de 2006, esta dissertação se propõe a analisar o impacto do programa federal de transferência de renda Bolsa Família, na decisão do voto dos moradores da região Norte do Brasil. A estratégia de pesquisa utilizada é uma análise comparativa, confrontando o resultado das urnas das eleições presidenciais de 2002 e 2006 e correlacionando o número de beneficiados pelo programa Bolsa Família com a quantidade de votos na candidatura petista de Lula da Silva, em cada município da região. Na análise empírica, foi possível identificar, no Norte do Brasil, a mudança na base eleitoral do candidato do PT em direção às cidades menos desenvolvidas, assim como o impacto positivo do programa na votação do petista, haja vista a melhora de seu desempenho eleitoral na região. No estudo, pode-se apontar, ainda, a coexistência pacífica, em 2006, de um padrão de comportamento eleitoral racional, sociológico e psicológico, com predominância do primeiro, porém, sem transformá-lo em teoria universalizante.

Wählen im räumlichen Kontext : eine empirische Untersuchung zum Einfluss der sozialen Komposition des Wahlkreises auf die individuelle Wahlentscheidung bei der Bundestagswahl 2009

Die meisten Studien der empirischen Wahlforschung führen das Wählverhalten bei deutschen Bundestagswahlen gemäß den bewährten Erklärungsansätzen (Columbia School, Cleavage-Theorie, Michigan School, …) auf Faktoren der Individualebene zurück. Nur wenige analysieren darüber hinaus den Einfluss räumlicher Kontextmerkmale. Diese Beiträge gelangen zudem zu widersprüchlichen Befunden, z.B. darüber, welcher Anteil der Gesamtvarianz überhaupt durch Kontextfaktoren erklärt werden kann. Daher will die vorliegende Arbeit klären, inwiefern die soziale Komposition des räumlichen Kontexts über individuelle Merkmale der Wähler hinaus ihre individuelle Wahlentscheidung bei der Bundestagswahl 2009 beeinflusst hat. Dazu wird zunächst ein räumliches Mehrebenen-Modell des individuellen Wahlverhaltens entwickelt, das den Einfluss von Kontextmerkmalen u.a. auf soziale Interaktionsmechanismen innerhalb der Kontexteinheiten zurückführt. Zudem werden die zentralen individuellen Erklärungsfaktoren der oben genannten Theorien (Parteiidentifikation, Kandidaten-, Sachfragen-Orientierung, soziale Gruppenzugehörigkeit) in das Modell integriert. Auf Grundlage von Daten der German Longitudinal Election Study werden anschließend logistische Mehrebenen-Modelle für die alten und erstmals auch für die neuen Bundesländer und Deutschland geschätzt. Erstmals werden zudem Wahlkreise als relevante Kontexteinheiten untersucht. Es zeigt sich, dass ein kleiner Teil der Varianz der individuellen Wahlentscheidung allein auf Merkmale des Wahlkreises zurückgeführt werden kann. Es treten sowohl direkte Kontexteffekte als auch Mehrebenen-Interaktionseffekte auf, die sich jedoch in ihrer Wirkung zwischen den Regionen und auch zwischen den Parteien erheblich unterscheiden.

Essays in Applied and Labor Economics

This thesis consists of three self-contained papers. In the first paper I analyze the labor supply behavior of Bologna Pizza Delivery Vendors. Recent influential papers analyze labor supply behavior of taxi drivers (Camerer et al., 1997; and Crawford and Meng, 2011) and suggest that reference-dependence preferences have an important influence on drivers’ labor-supply decisions. Unlike previous papers, I am able to identify an exogenous and transitory change in labor demand. Using high frequency data on orders and rainfall as an exogenous demand shifter, I invariably find that reference-dependent preferences play no role in their labor’ supply decisions and the behavior of pizza vendors is perfectly consistent with the predictions of the standard model of labor’ supply. In the second paper, I investigate how the voting behavior of Members of Parliament is influenced by the Members seating nearby. By exploiting the random seating arrangements in the Icelandic Parliament, I show that being seated next to Members of a different party increases the probability of not being aligned with one’s own party. Using the exact spatial orientation of the peers, I provide evidence that supports the hypothesis that interaction is the main channel that explain these results. In the third paper, I provide an estimate of the trade flows that there would have been between the UK and Europe if the UK had joined the Euro. As an alternative approach to the standard log-linear gravity equation I employ the synthetic control method. I show that the aggregate trade flows between Britain and Europe would have been 13% higher if the UK had adopted the Euro.