Revisiting Polya's summation techniques using a spreadsheet : from addition tables to Bernoulli polynomials

Recurrence relations in mathematics form a very powerful and compact way of looking at a wide range of relationships. Traditionally, the concept of recurrence has often been a difficult one for the secondary teacher to convey to students. Closely related to the powerful proof technique of mathematical induction, recurrences are able to capture many relationships in formulas much simpler than so-called direct or closed formulas. In computer science, recursive coding often has a similar compactness property, and, perhaps not surprisingly, suffers from similar problems in the classroom as recurrences: the students often find both the basic concepts and practicalities elusive. Using models designed to illuminate the relevant principles for the students, we offer a range of examples which use the modern spreadsheet environment to powerfully illustrate the great expressive and computational power of recurrences.

Coverage algorithms for an under-actuated car-like vehicle in an uncertain environment

A coverage algorithm is an algorithm that deploys a strategy as to how to cover all points in terms of a given area using some set of sensors. In the past decades a lot of research has gone into development of coverage algorithms. Initially, the focus was coverage of structured and semi-structured indoor areas, but with time and development of better sensors and introduction of GPS, the focus has turned to outdoor coverage. Due to the unstructured nature of an outdoor environment, covering an outdoor area with all its obstacles and simultaneously performing reliable localization is a difficult task. In this paper, two path planning algorithms suitable for solving outdoor coverage tasks are introduced. The algorithms take into account the kinematic constraints of an under-actuated car-like vehicle, minimize trajectory curvatures, and dynamically avoid detected obstacles in the vicinity, all in real-time. We demonstrate the performance of the coverage algorithm in the field by achieving 95% coverage using an autonomous tractor mower without the aid of any absolute localization system or constraints on the physical boundaries of the area.

Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality

This paper develops a dynamic model for cost-effective selection of sites for restoring biodiversity when habitat quality develops over time and is uncertain. A safety-first decision criterion is used for ensuring a minimum level of habitats, and this is formulated in a chance-constrained programming framework. The theoretical results show; (i) inclusion of quality growth reduces overall cost for achieving a future biodiversity target from relatively early establishment of habitats, but (ii) consideration of uncertainty in growth increases total cost and delays establishment, and (iii) cost-effective trading of habitat requires exchange rate between sites that varies over time. An empirical application to the red listed umbrella species - white-backed woodpecker - shows that the total cost of achieving habitat targets specified in the Swedish recovery plan is doubled if the target is to be achieved with high reliability, and that equilibrating price on a habitat trading market differs considerably between different quality growth combinations. © 2013 Elsevier GmbH.

Uncertain species distribution: From interpolation to extrapolation

Species distribution models (SDMs) are considered to exemplify Pattern rather than Process based models of a species' response to its environment. Hence when used to map species distribution, the purpose of SDMs can be viewed as interpolation, since species response is measured at a few sites in the study region, and the aim is to interpolate species response at intermediate sites. Increasingly, however, SDMs are also being used to also extrapolate species-environment relationships beyond the limits of the study region as represented by the training data. Regardless of whether SDMs are to be used for interpolation or extrapolation, the debate over how to implement SDMs focusses on evaluating the quality of the SDM, both ecologically and mathematically. This paper proposes a framework that includes useful tools previously employed to address uncertainty in habitat modelling. Together with existing frameworks for addressing uncertainty more generally when modelling, we then outline how these existing tools help inform development of a broader framework for addressing uncertainty, specifically when building habitat models. As discussed earlier we focus on extrapolation rather than interpolation, where the emphasis on predictive performance is diluted by the concerns for robustness and ecological relevance. We are cognisant of the dangers of excessively propagating uncertainty. Thus, although the framework provides a smorgasbord of approaches, it is intended that the exact menu selected for a particular application, is small in size and targets the most important sources of uncertainty. We conclude with some guidance on a strategic approach to identifying these important sources of uncertainty. Whilst various aspects of uncertainty in SDMs have previously been addressed, either as the main aim of a study or as a necessary element of constructing SDMs, this is the first paper to provide a more holistic view.

An agreement to negotiate a contract in good faith: No legal content and too uncertain for enforcement

The decision of Baldwin v Icon Energy Ltd [2015] QSC 12 is generally instructive upon the issue of the minimum required to enforce an agreement to negotiate .The language of these agreements is always couched in terms which include the expressions “good faith” and “reasonable endeavours” as descriptive of the yardstick of behaviour of each party in the intended negotiation to follow such an agreement. However, the mere statement of these intended characteristics of negotiation may not be sufficient to ensure that the agreement to negotiate is enforceable.

Online hidden Markov model parameter estimation and minimax robust quickest change detection in uncertain stochastic processes

Stochastic (or random) processes are inherent to numerous fields of human endeavour including engineering, science, and business and finance. This thesis presents multiple novel methods for quickly detecting and estimating uncertainties in several important classes of stochastic processes. The significance of these novel methods is demonstrated by employing them to detect aircraft manoeuvres in video signals in the important application of autonomous mid-air collision avoidance.

Insurance contract disclosure – an uncertain balance

This article canvasses recent case law adjudicating the uneasy disclosure balance between the interests of the insurer and the insured in the process of transacting an insurance contract. It examines also the consequences of non-disclosure and misrepresentation and whether the avowed legislative intent — that the liability of the insurer in respect of a claim is to be reduced to the amount that would place the insurer in the position it would have been had the non-disclosure or misrepresentation not occurred — is being achieved in practice. As there is no doubt as to who bears the onus of proof as to non-disclosure or misrepresentation it is surprising that insurers continue to flounder in this regard in relation to underwriting guidelines and adherence to them. The article reviews recent case law in this context and stresses that an insurer wishing to preserve its capacity to avoid liability on the basis that it would not have entered into a contract at all had the true situation been known to it must maintain detailed underwriting guidelines supported by consistent adherence to those guidelines. Recent case law also emphasises that the insurer must provide clear and cogent admissible evidence from appropriate personnel and officers of the company to discharge its onus.

Probabilistic load flow for distribution systems with uncertain PV generation

Large integration of solar Photo Voltaic (PV) in distribution network has resulted in over-voltage problems. Several control techniques are developed to address over-voltage problem using Deterministic Load Flow (DLF). However, intermittent characteristics of PV generation require Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF) to introduce variability in analysis that is ignored in DLF. The traditional PLF techniques are not suitable for distribution systems and suffer from several drawbacks such as computational burden (Monte Carlo, Conventional convolution), sensitive accuracy with the complexity of system (point estimation method), requirement of necessary linearization (multi-linear simulation) and convergence problem (Gram–Charlier expansion, Cornish Fisher expansion). In this research, Latin Hypercube Sampling with Cholesky Decomposition (LHS-CD) is used to quantify the over-voltage issues with and without the voltage control algorithm in the distribution network with active generation. LHS technique is verified with a test network and real system from an Australian distribution network service provider. Accuracy and computational burden of simulated results are also compared with Monte Carlo simulations.

A dual-slope analogue-to-digital converter for generating polynomials

A new digital polynomial generator using the principle of dual-slope analogue-to-digital conversion is proposed. Techniques for realizing a wide range of integer as well as fractional coefficients to obtain the desired polynomial have been discussed. The suitability of realizing the proposed polynomial generator in integrated circuit form is also indicated.

Application of ultraspherical polynomials to forced oscillations of a third-order non-linear system

In this paper the method of ultraspherical polynomial approximation is applied to study the steady-state response in forced oscillations of a third-order non-linear system. The non-linear function is expanded in ultraspherical polynomials and the expansion is restricted to the linear term. The equation for the response curve is obtained by using the linearized equation and the results are presented graphically. The agreement between the approximate solution and the analog computer solution is satisfactory. The problem of stability is not dealt with in this paper.

Ultraspherical polynomials approach to the study of third-order non-linear systems

In this study, the Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolskii-Popov asymptotic method is used to determine the transient response of third-order non-linear systems. Instead of averaging the non-linear functions over a cycle, they are expanded in ultraspherical polynomials and the constant term is retained. The resulting equations are solved to obtain the approximate solution. A numerical example is considered and the approximate solution is compared with the digital solution. The results show that there is good agreement between the two values.

Application of ultraspherical polynomials to non-linear autonomous systems

This paper deals with the approximate solutions of non-linear autonomous systems by the application of ultraspherical polynomials. From the differential equations for amplitude and phase, set up by the method of variation of parameters, the approximate solutions are obtained by a generalized averaging technique based on the ultraspherical polynomial expansions. The method is illustrated with examples and the results are compared with the digital and analog computer solutions. There is a close agreement between the analytical and exact results.

Second order cone programming approaches for handling missing and uncertain data

We propose a novel second order cone programming formulation for designing robust classifiers which can handle uncertainty in observations. Similar formulations are also derived for designing regression functions which are robust to uncertainties in the regression setting. The proposed formulations are independent of the underlying distribution, requiring only the existence of second order moments. These formulations are then specialized to the case of missing values in observations for both classification and regression problems. Experiments show that the proposed formulations outperform imputation.

Component Inventory Costs in an Assembly Problem with Uncertain Supplier Lead-Times

We present a generic study of inventory costs in a factory stockroom that supplies component parts to an assembly line. Specifically, we are concerned with the increase in component inventories due to uncertainty in supplier lead-times, and the fact that several different components must be present before assembly can begin. It is assumed that the suppliers of the various components are independent, that the suppliers' operations are in statistical equilibrium, and that the same amount of each type of component is demanded by the assembly line each time a new assembly cycle is scheduled to begin. We use, as a measure of inventory cost, the expected time for which an order of components must be held in the stockroom from the time it is delivered until the time it is consumed by the assembly line. Our work reveals the effects of supplier lead-time variability, the number of different types of components, and their desired service levels, on the inventory cost. In addition, under the assumptions that inventory holding costs and the cost of delaying assembly are linear in time, we study optimal ordering policies and present an interesting characterization that is independent of the supplier lead-time distributions.

Spectral element approach to wave propagation in uncertain beam structures

This paper presents a study on the uncertainty in material parameters of wave propagation responses in metallic beam structures. Special effort is made to quantify the effect of uncertainty in the wave propagation responses at high frequencies. Both the modulus of elasticity and the density are considered uncertain. The analysis is performed using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) under the spectral finite element method (SEM). The randomness in the material properties is characterized by three different distributions, the normal, Weibull and extreme value distributions. Their effect on wave propagation in beams is investigated. The numerical study shows that the CPU time taken for MCS under SEM is about 48 times less than for MCS under a conventional one-dimensional finite element environment for 50 kHz loading. The numerical results presented investigate effects of material uncertainties on high frequency modes. A study is performed on the usage of different beam theories and their uncertain responses due to dynamic impulse load. These studies show that even for a small coefficient of variation, significant changes in the above parameters are noticed. A number of interesting results are presented, showing the true effects of uncertainty response due to dynamic impulse load.