Childhood cancer mortality in Europe, 1970-2007.

To update trends in childhood cancer mortality in Europe, we analysed mortality data derived from the World Health Organization for all childhood neoplasms, bone and kidney cancers, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL) and leukaemias, in 30 European countries up to 2007. Between 1990-1994 and 2005-2007, mortality from all neoplasms steadily declined in most European countries (from 5.2 to 3.5/100,000 boys and from 4.3 to 2.8/100,000 girls in the European Union, EU). In 2005-2007, however, mortality rates from childhood cancers were still higher in countries from Eastern (4.9/100,000 boys and 3.9/100,000 girls) and Southern (4.0/100,000 boys and 3.1/100,000 girls) Europe than in those from Western (3.1/100,000 boys and 2.5/100,000 girls) and Northern (3.2/100,000 boys and 2.5/100,000 girls) Europe. Similar temporal trends and geographic patterns were observed for leukaemias, with declines from 1.7 to 0.9/100,000 boys and from 1.3 to 0.7/100,000 girls between 1990-1994 and 2005-2007 in the EU. For kidney cancer and NHL mortality rates were low and have been declining in larger European countries over the last 15years. The pattern of trends was less clear for bone cancer, with no systematic downward trends at age 0-14, though some fall was evident at age 15-19. Thus, mortality from childhood cancer continued to decline over more recent years in most European countries. However, the mortality rates in Eastern - but also Southern - European countries in the mid 2000's were similar to those in the Western and Northern European ones in the early 1990's. Some further improvement in childhood cancer mortality is therefore achievable through more widespread and better adoption of currently available treatments.

Continuing declines in cancer mortality in the European Union

BACKGROUND: From 1988 to 1997 age-standardised total cancer mortality rates in the European Union (EU) fell by around 9% in both sexes. Available cancer mortality data in Europe up to 2002 allow a first check of the forecast of further declines in cancer mortality. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We considered trends in age-standardised mortality from major cancer sites in the EU during the period 1980-2002. RESULTS: For men, total cancer mortality, after a peak of 191.1/100,000 in 1987 declined to 177.8 in 1997 (-7%), and to 166.5 in 2002. Corresponding figures for females were 107.9/100,000, 100.5 and 95.2, corresponding to falls of 7% from 1987 to 1997, and to 5% from 1997 to 2002. Over the last 5 years, lung cancer declined by 1.9% per year in men, to reach 44.4/100,000, but increased by 1.7% in women, to reach 11.4. In 2002, for the first year, lung cancer mortality in women was higher than that for intestinal cancer (11.1/100,000), and lung cancer became the second site of cancer deaths in women after breast (17.9/100,000). From 1997 to 2002, appreciable declines were observed in mortality from intestinal cancer in men (-1.6% per year, to reach 18.8/100,000), and in women (-2.5%), as well as for breast (-1.7% per year) and prostate cancer (-1.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the persisting rises in female lung cancer, the recent trends in cancer mortality in the EU are encouraging and indicate that an 11% reduction in total cancer mortality from 2000 to 2015 is realistic and possible.

Seasonal variation of overall and cardiovascular mortality: a study in 19 countries from different geographic locations.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality has been shown to follow a seasonal pattern. Several studies suggested several possible determinants of this pattern, including misclassification of causes of deaths. We aimed at assessing seasonality in overall, CVD, cancer and non-CVD/non-cancer mortality using data from 19 countries from different latitudes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Monthly mortality data were compiled from 19 countries, amounting to over 54 million deaths. We calculated ratios of the observed to the expected numbers of deaths in the absence of a seasonal pattern. Seasonal variation (peak to nadir difference) for overall and cause-specific (CVD, cancer or non-CVD/non-cancer) mortality was analyzed using the cosinor function model. Mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer showed a consistent seasonal pattern. In both hemispheres, the number of deaths was higher than expected in winter. In countries close to the Equator the seasonal pattern was considerably lower for mortality from any cause. For CVD mortality, the peak to nadir differences ranged from 0.185 to 0.466 in the Northern Hemisphere, from 0.087 to 0.108 near the Equator, and from 0.219 to 0.409 in the Southern Hemisphere. For cancer mortality, the seasonal variation was nonexistent in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: In countries with seasonal variation, mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer show a seasonal pattern with mortality being higher in winter than in summer. Conversely, cancer mortality shows no substantial seasonality.

Thyroid cancer mortality and incidence: a global overview.

In most areas of the world, thyroid cancer incidence has been appreciably increasing over the last few decades, whereas mortality has steadily declined. We updated global trends in thyroid cancer mortality and incidence using official mortality data from the World Health Organization (1970-2012) and incidence data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (1960-2007). Male mortality declined in all the major countries considered, with annual percent changes around -2/-3% over the last decades. Only in the United States mortality declined up to the mid 1980s and increased thereafter. Similarly, in women mortality declined in most countries considered, with APCs around -2/-5% over the last decades, with the exception of the UK, the United States and Australia, where mortality has been declining up to the late 1980s/late 1990s to level off (or increase) thereafter. In 2008-2012, most countries had mortality rates (age-standardized, world population) between 0.20 and 0.40/100,000 men and 0.20 and 0.60/100,000 women, the highest rates being in Latvia, Hungary, the Republic of Moldova and Israel (over 0.40/100,000) for men and in Ecuador, Colombia and Israel (over 0.60/100,000) for women. In most countries, a steady increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (mainly papillary carcinomas) was observed in both sexes. The declines in thyroid cancer mortality reflect both variations in risk factor exposure and changes in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease, while the increases in the incidence are likely due to the increase in the detection of this neoplasm over the last few decades.

The application of trend surface models to the analysis of time factors in Swiss cancer mortality.

To study different temporal components on cancer mortality (age, period and cohort) methods of graphic representation were applied to Swiss mortality data from 1950 to 1984. Maps using continuous slopes ("contour maps") and based on eight tones of grey according to the absolute distribution of rates were used to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. Further, progressively more complex regression surface equations were defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age/cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific mortality rate). General patterns of trends in cancer mortality were thus identified, permitting definition of important cohort (e.g., upwards for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, or downwards for stomach) or period (e.g., downwards for intestines or thyroid cancers) effects, besides the major underlying age component. For most cancer sites, even the lower order (1st to 3rd) models utilised provided excellent fitting, allowing immediate identification of the residuals (e.g., high or low mortality points) as well as estimates of first-order interactions between the three factors, although the parameters of the main effects remained still undetermined. Thus, the method should be essentially used as summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in (cancer) mortality, although they cannot conceptually solve the inherent problem of identifiability of the three components.

Cancer mortality in Europe, 2005-2009, and an overview of trends since 1980.

BACKGROUND: After a peak in the late 1980s, cancer mortality in Europe has declined by ∼10% in both sexes up to the early 2000s. We provide an up-to-date picture of patterns and trends in mortality from major cancers in Europe. METHODS: We analyzed cancer mortality data from the World Health Organization for 25 cancer sites and 34 European countries (plus the European Union, EU) in 2005-2009. We computed age-standardized rates (per 100 000 person-years) using the world standard population and provided an overview of trends since 1980 for major European countries, using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Cancer mortality in the EU steadily declined since the late 1980s, with reductions by 1.6% per year in 2002-2009 in men and 1% per year in 1993-2009 in women. In western Europe, rates steadily declined over the last two decades for stomach and colorectal cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and leukemias in both sexes, breast and (cervix) uterine cancer in women, and testicular cancer in men. In central/eastern Europe, mortality from major cancer sites has been increasing up to the late 1990s/early 2000s. In most Europe, rates have been increasing for lung cancer in women and for pancreatic cancer and soft tissue sarcomas in both sexes, while they have started to decline over recent years for multiple myeloma. In 2005-2009, there was still an over twofold difference between the highest male cancer mortality in Hungary (235.2/100 000) and the lowest one in Sweden (112.9/100 000), and a 1.7-fold one in women (from 124.4 in Denmark to 71.0/100 000 in Spain). CONCLUSIONS: With the major exceptions of female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes, in the last quinquennium, cancer mortality has moderately but steadily declined across Europe. However, substantial differences across countries persist, requiring targeted interventions on risk factor control, early diagnosis, and improved management and pharmacological treatment for selected cancer sites.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Incidence and mortality from non-Hodgkin lymphoma in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

Non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL) are among the few neoplasms whose incidence and mortality have been rising in Europe and North America over the last few decades. To update trends from NHL, we considered mortality data up to 2004 in several European countries, and for comparative purpose in the USA and Japan. We also analyzed patterns in incidence for selected European countries providing national data. In most European countries, NHL mortality rose up to the mid 1990s, and started to level off or decline in the following decade. The rates were, however, still increasing in eastern Europe. Overall, in the European Union, mortality from NHL declined from 4.3/100,000 to 4.1 in men and from 2.7 to 2.5 in women between the late 1990s and the early 2000s. Similarly, NHL mortality rates declined from 6.5/100,000 to 5.5 in US men and from 4.2 to 3.5 in US women. In most countries considered, NHL incidence rates rose up to 1995-99, while they tended to level off or decline thereafter, with particular favorable patterns in countries from northern Europe. Thus, the epidemic of NHL observed during the second half of the 20th century has now started to level off in Europe as in other developed areas of the world.

Alcohol-attributable mortality in Switzerland in 2011--age-specific causes of death and impact of heavy versus non-heavy drinking.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use causes high burden of disease and injury globally. Switzerland has a high consumption of alcohol, almost twice the global average. Alcohol-attributable deaths and years of life lost in Switzerland were estimated by age and sex for the year 2011. Additionally, the impact of heavy drinking (40+grams/day for women and 60+g/day for men) was estimated. METHODS: Alcohol consumption estimates were based on the Addiction Monitoring in Switzerland study and were adjusted to per capita consumption based on sales data. Mortality data were taken from the Swiss mortality register. Methodology of the Comparative Risk Assessment for alcohol was used to estimate alcohol-attributable fractions. RESULTS: Alcohol use caused 1,600 (95% CI: 1,472 - 1,728) net deaths (1,768 deaths caused, 168 deaths prevented) among 15 to 74 year olds, corresponding to 8.7% of all deaths (men: 1,181 deaths; women: 419 deaths). Overall, 42,627 years of life (9.7%, 95% CI: 40,245 - 45,008) were lost due to alcohol. Main causes of alcohol-attributable mortality were injuries at younger ages (15-34 years), with increasing age digestive diseases (mainly liver cirrhosis) and cancers (particularly breast cancers among women). The majority (62%) of all alcohol-attributable deaths was caused by chronic heavy drinking (men: 67%; women: 48 %). CONCLUSION: Alcohol is a major cause of premature mortality in Switzerland. Its impact, among young people mainly via injuries, among men mainly through heavy drinking, calls for a mix of preventive actions targeting chronic heavy drinking, binge drinking and mean consumption.

Mortality of patients with COPD participating in chronic disease management programmes: a happy end?

BACKGROUND: Concerns about increased mortality could question the role of COPD chronic disease management (CDM) programmes. We aimed at extending a recent Cochrane review to assess the effects of CDM on mortality in patients with COPD. METHODS: Mortality data were available for 25 out of 29 trials identified in a COPD integrated care systematic review. Meta-analysis using random-effects models was performed, followed by subgroup analyses according to study length (3-12 months vs >12 months), main intervention component (exercise, self-management, structured follow-up) and use of an action plan. RESULTS: The meta-analysis showed no impact of CDM on mortality (pooled OR: 1.00, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.28). CONCLUSIONS: These results do not suggest that CDM programmes expose patients with COPD to excessive mortality risk.

Meta-analysis: subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for coronary heart disease and mortality

BACKGROUND: Data on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality are conflicting. PURPOSE: To summarize prospective evidence about the relationship between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and CHD and mortality. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1950 to January 2008) without language restrictions and reference lists of retrieved articles were searched. STUDY SELECTION: Two reviewers screened and selected cohort studies that measured thyroid function and then followed persons prospectively to assess CHD or mortality. DATA EXTRACTION: By using a standardized protocol and forms, 2 reviewers independently abstracted and assessed studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Ten of 12 identified studies involved population-based cohorts that included 14 449 participants. All 10 population-based cohort studies examined risks associated with subclinical hypothyroidism (2134 CHD events and 2822 deaths), whereas only 5 examined risks associated with subclinical hyperthyroidism (1392 CHD events and 1993 deaths). In a random-effects model, the relative risk (RR) for subclinical hypothyroidism for CHD was 1.20 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.49; P for heterogeneity = 0.14; I(2 )= 33.4%). Risk estimates were lower when higher-quality studies were pooled (RR, 1.02 to 1.08) and were higher among participants younger than 65 years (RR, 1.51 [CI, 1.09 to 2.09] for studies with mean participant age <65 years and 1.05 [CI, 0.90 to 1.22] for studies with mean participant age > or =65 years). The RR was 1.18 (CI, 0.98 to 1.42) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.12 (CI, 0.99 to 1.26) for total mortality. For subclinical hyperthyroidism, the RR was 1.21 (CI, 0.88 to 1.68) for CHD, 1.19 (CI, 0.81 to 1.76) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.12 (CI, 0.89 to 1.42) for total mortality (P for heterogeneity >0.50; I(2 )= 0% for all studies). LIMITATIONS: Individual studies adjusted for different potential confounders, and 1 study provided only unadjusted data. Publication bias or selective reporting of outcomes could not be excluded. CONCLUSION: Subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism may be associated with a modest increased risk for CHD and mortality, with lower risk estimates when pooling higher-quality studies and larger CIs for subclinical hyperthyroidism

Chagas disease-related mortality trends, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985 to 2006: a study using multiple causes of death

Objectives. To study mortality trends related to Chagas disease taking into account all mentions of this cause listed on any line or part of the death certificate. Methods. Mortality data for 1985-2006 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Chagas disease was classified as the underlying cause-of-death or as an associated cause-of-death (non-underlying). The total number of times Chagas disease was mentioned on the death certificates was also considered. Results. During this 22-year period, there were 40 002 deaths related to Chagas disease: 34 917 (87.29%) classified as the underlying cause-of-death and 5 085 (12.71%) as an associated cause-of-death. The results show a 56.07% decline in the death rate due to Chagas disease as the underlying cause and a stabilized rate as associated cause. The number of deaths was 44.5% higher among men. The fact that 83.5% of the deaths occurred after 45 years of age reflects a cohort effect. The main causes associated with Chagas disease as the underlying cause-of-death were direct complications due to cardiac involvement, such as conduction disorders, arrhythmias and heart failure. Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disorders and neoplasms were the main underlying causes when Chagas was an associated cause-of-death. Conclusions. For the total mentions to Chagas disease, a 51.34% decline in the death rate was observed, whereas the decline in the number of deaths was only 5.91%, being lower among women and showing a shift of deaths to older age brackets. Using the multiple cause-of-death method contributed to the understanding of the natural history of Chagas disease.

Paracoccidioidomycosis-related mortality trend, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: a study using multiple causes of death

Objective. To investigate mortality in which paracoccidioidomycosis appears on any line or part of the death certificate. Method. Mortality data for 1985-2005 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Standardized mortality coefficients were calculated for paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death and as an associated cause-of-death, as well as for the total number of times paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned on the death certificates. Results. During this 21-year period, there were 1950 deaths related to paracoccidioidomycosis; the disease was the underlying cause-of-death in 1 164 cases (59.69%) and an associated cause-of-death in 786 (40.31%). Between 1985 and 2005 records show a 59.8% decline in the mortality coefficient due to paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause and a 53.0% decline in the mortality as associated cause. The largest number of deaths occurred among men, in the older age groups, and among rural workers, with an upward trend in winter months. The main causes associated with paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death were pulmonary fibrosis, chronic lower respiratory tract diseases, and pneumonias. Malignant neoplasms and AIDS were the main underlying causes when paracoccidioidomycosis was an associated cause-of-death. The decision tables had to be adapted for the automated processing of causes of death in death certificates where paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned. Conclusions. Using the multiple cause-of-death method together with the traditional underlying cause-of-death approach provides a new angle on research aimed at broadening our understanding of the natural history of paracoccidioidomycosis.

Estimating mortality in laying hens as the environmental temperature increases

Layer mortality due to heat stress is an important economic loss for the producer. The aim of this study was to determine the mortality pattern of layers reared in the region of Bastos, SP, Brazil, according to external environment and bird age. Data mining technique were used based on monthly mortality records of hens in production, 135 poultry houses, from January 2004 to August 2008. The external environment was characterized according maximum and minimum temperatures, obtained monthly at the meteorological station CATI in the city of Tupa, SP, Brazil. Mortality was classified as normal (<= 1.2%) or high (> 1.2%), considering the mortality limits mentioned in literature. Data mining technique produced a decision tree with nine levels and 23 leaves, with 62.6% of overall accuracy. The hit rate for the High class was 64.1% and 59.9% for Normal class. The decision tree allowed finding a pattern in the mortality data, generating a model for estimating mortality based on the thermal environment and bird age.

beta-carotene attenuates the paradoxical effect of tobacco smoke on the mortality of rats after experimental myocardial infarction

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of exposure to tobacco smoke (ETS) in rats that were or were not supplemented with dietary beta-carotene (BC), on ventricular remodeling and survival after myocardial infarction (MI). Rats (n = 189) were allocated to 4 groups: the control group, n = 45; group BC administered 500 mg/kg diet, n = 49, BC supplemented rats; group ETS, n = 55, rats exposed to tobacco smoke; and group BC+ETS, n = 40. Wistar rats weighing 100 g were administered one of the treatments until they weighed 200 to 250 g (similar to 5 wk). The ETS rats were exposed to cigarette smoke for 30 min 4 times/d, in a chamber connected to a smoking device. After reaching a weight of 200-250 g, rats were subjected to experimental MI (coronary artery occlusion) and mortality rates were determined over the next 105 d. In addition, echocardiographic, isolated heart, morphometrical, and biochemical studies were performed. Mortality data were tested using Kaplan-Meyer curves and other data by 2-way ANOVA. Survival rates were greater in the ETS group (58.2%) than in the control (33.3%) (P = 0.001) and BC+ETS rats (30.0%) (P = 0.007). The groups did not differ in the other comparisons. Left ventricular end-diastolic diameter normalized to body weight was greater and maximal systolic pressures were lower in the ETS groups than in non-ETS groups. Previous exposure to tobacco smoke induced a process of cardiac remodeling after MI. There is a paradoxical protector effect with tobacco smoke exposure, characterized by lower mortality, which is offset by BC supplementation.