983 resultados para tipping point
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The metabolic syndrome may have its origins in thriftiness, insulin resistance and one of the most ancient of all signalling systems, redox. Thriftiness results from an evolutionarily-driven propensity to minimise energy expenditure. This has to be balanced with the need to resist the oxidative stress from cellular signalling and pathogen resistance, giving rise to something we call 'redox-thriftiness'. This is based on the notion that mitochondria may be able to both amplify membrane-derived redox growth signals as well as negatively regulate them, resulting in an increased ATP/ROS ratio. We suggest that 'redox-thriftiness' leads to insulin resistance, which has the effect of both protecting the individual cell from excessive growth/inflammatory stress, while ensuring energy is channelled to the brain, the immune system, and for storage. We also suggest that fine tuning of redox-thriftiness is achieved by hormetic (mild stress) signals that stimulate mitochondrial biogenesis and resistance to oxidative stress, which improves metabolic flexibility. However, in a non-hormetic environment with excessive calories, the protective nature of this system may lead to escalating insulin resistance and rising oxidative stress due to metabolic inflexibility and mitochondrial overload. Thus, the mitochondrially-associated resistance to oxidative stress (and metabolic flexibility) may determine insulin resistance. Genetically and environmentally determined mitochondrial function may define a 'tipping point' where protective insulin resistance tips over to inflammatory insulin resistance. Many hormetic factors may induce mild mitochondrial stress and biogenesis, including exercise, fasting, temperature extremes, unsaturated fats, polyphenols, alcohol, and even metformin and statins. Without hormesis, a proposed redox-thriftiness tipping point might lead to a feed forward insulin resistance cycle in the presence of excess calories. We therefore suggest that as oxidative stress determines functional longevity, a rather more descriptive term for the metabolic syndrome is the 'lifestyle-induced metabolic inflexibility and accelerated ageing syndrome'. Ultimately, thriftiness is good for us as long as we have hormetic stimuli; unfortunately, mankind is attempting to remove all hormetic (stressful) stimuli from his environment.
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We examine the recovery of Arctic sea ice from prescribed ice-free summer conditions in simulations of 21st century climate in an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. We find that ice extent recovers typically within two years. The excess oceanic heat that had built up during the ice-free summer is rapidly returned to the atmosphere during the following autumn and winter, and then leaves the Arctic partly through increased longwave emission at the top of the atmosphere and partly through reduced atmospheric heat advection from lower latitudes. Oceanic heat transport does not contribute significantly to the loss of the excess heat. Our results suggest that anomalous loss of Arctic sea ice during a single summer is reversible, as the ice–albedo feedback is alleviated by large-scale recovery mechanisms. Hence, hysteretic threshold behavior (or a “tipping point”) is unlikely to occur during the decline of Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the 21st century.
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Region is on Track to Fulfil the Millennium Development Goal of Reducing Extreme Poverty by Half. ECLAC Calls for More Pro-Active Policies to Reduce Inequality in Educational Systems. Three Considerations on Fighting Poverty and Indigence in Latin America. Op-ed by ECLAC's Executive Secretary, José Luis Machinea. Highlights. At the Tipping Point, by Ban Ki-moon, United Nations' Secretary-General. Indicators Against Gender Violence and for More Active Participation of Women in Peacekeeping Operations. Recent titles. Calendar of events
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Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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L’elaborazione di questa tesi è stata svolta con l’ausilio di strumenti di Business Intelligence. In particolare, si è dapprima alimentato un data warehouse territoriale, in cui sono stati inseriti, dopo averli elaborati, i dati messi a disposizione dagli osservatori territoriali nazionali e dall’azienda Geofor spa. A partire da questi, sono stati prodotti degli indicatori statistici e dei report, utili per evidenziare andamenti e trend di crescita di alcuni particolari indici. Il principale strumento utilizzato è StatPortal, un portale Web di Business Intelligence OLAP per la realizzazione di Data warehouse territoriali. L’argomento sarà approfondito nel capitolo sette, dedicato agli strumenti utilizzati, ma in breve, questo sistema consente di raccogliere, catalogare e condividere informazione statistica e geostatistica, nonché di produrre indicatori e reportistica. Il lavoro è organizzato come segue: inizialmente c’è una prima parte di definizione e classificazione dei rifiuti che ha l’obiettivo di permettere al lettore di inquadrare il tema e prendere coscienza del problema. Successivamente, è stata sviluppata una parte più storica, con una rapida analisi temporale per comprendere il “tipping point”, cioè il momento in cui i rifiuti hanno iniziato a essere percepiti come un problema per la comunità, concludendo con un accenno agli scenari attuali e futuri. In seguito, si è indirizzata l’attenzione sul panorama italiano, europeo e mondiale citando alcuni interessanti e originali esempi di efficienza nella gestione dei rifiuti, che potrebbero servire da spunto per qualche stakeholder nazionale. Si è poi introdotta quella che è la normativa vigente, sottolineando quali sono gli obiettivi che impone ed entro quali tempi dovranno essere raggiunti, elencando quindi i principi fondamentali del D.lgs.152/2006 e del D.lgs 36/2003. Continuando su questo filo logico, si è voluto introdurre al lettore, la questione dei Rifiuti Solidi Urbani (RSU) nel Comune di Pisa. Sono stati definiti: lo stato dell’arte dell’igiene urbana pisana, i sistemi implementati nella città con i vari pregi e difetti e quali sono state le azioni pratiche messe in atto dall’Amministrazione per far fronte al tema. Il capitolo sei rappresenta uno dei due punti focali dell’intero lavoro: il Rapporto sullo Stato dell’Ambiente della città di Pisa in tema di rifiuti urbani. Qui saranno analizzati i vari indici e report prodotti ad hoc con lo strumento Statportal appena menzionato, con lo scopo di segnalare evidenze e obiettivi dell’Amministrazione. Nel settimo capitolo si analizza la fase di progettazione del Data Warehouse. Sono elencati i passi fondamentali nella costruzione di un DW dimensionale, esponendone in primo luogo la specifica dei requisiti del progetto ed elencando per ognuno di essi le dimensioni, le misure e le aggregazioni relative. In seguito saranno descritti nel dettaglio la fase di progettazione concettuale e lo schema logico. In ultimo, sarà presentato l’altro punto focale di questa tesi, nonché la parte più interattiva: un portale web creato appositamente per il Comune con l’obiettivo di coinvolgere ed aiutare i cittadini nel conferimento dei rifiuti da loro prodotti. Si tratta di una sorta di manuale interattivo per individuare come eseguire una corretta differenziazione dei rifiuti. Lo scopo primario è quello di fare chiarezza alle utenze nella differenziazione, il che, in maniera complementare, dovrebbe incrementare la qualità del rifiuto raccolto, minimizzando i conferimenti errati. L’obiettivo principale di questo lavoro resta quindi il monitoraggio e l’analisi delle tecniche e dei processi di gestione dei rifiuti nel Comune di Pisa. Analogamente si vuole coinvolgere e suscitare l’interesse del maggior numero di persone possibile al tema della sostenibilità ambientale, rendendo consapevole il lettore che il primo passo verso un mondo più sostenibile spetta in primis a Noi che quotidianamente acquistiamo, consumiamo ed infine gettiamo via i residui senza troppo preoccuparci. Il fatto che anche in Italia, si stia sviluppando un senso civico e una forte responsabilizzazione verso l’ambiente da parte dei cittadini, fa ben sperare. Questo perché si è riusciti a imprimere il concetto che le soluzioni si ottengano impegnandosi in prima persona. E’ alla nostra comunità che si affida il dovere di non compromettere l’esistenza delle generazioni future, incaricandola del compito di ristabilire un equilibrio, ormai precario, tra umanità e ambiente, se non altro perché, come recita un vecchio proverbio Navajo: “il mondo non lo abbiamo in eredità dai nostri padri ma lo abbiamo in prestito dai nostri figli”.
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Nell’attuale contesto di aumento degli impatti antropici e di “Global Climate Change” emerge la necessità di comprenderne i possibili effetti di questi sugli ecosistemi inquadrati come fruitori di servizi e funzioni imprescindibili sui quali si basano intere tessiture economiche e sociali. Lo studio previsionale degli ecosistemi si scontra con l’elevata complessità di questi ultimi in luogo di una altrettanto elevata scarsità di osservazioni integrate. L’approccio modellistico appare il più adatto all’analisi delle dinamiche complesse degli ecosistemi ed alla contestualizzazione complessa di risultati sperimentali ed osservazioni empiriche. L’approccio riduzionista-deterministico solitamente utilizzato nell’implementazione di modelli non si è però sin qui dimostrato in grado di raggiungere i livelli di complessità più elevati all’interno della struttura eco sistemica. La componente che meglio descrive la complessità ecosistemica è quella biotica in virtù dell’elevata dipendenza dalle altre componenti e dalle loro interazioni. In questo lavoro di tesi viene proposto un approccio modellistico stocastico basato sull’utilizzo di un compilatore naive Bayes operante in ambiente fuzzy. L’utilizzo congiunto di logica fuzzy e approccio naive Bayes è utile al processa mento del livello di complessità e conseguentemente incertezza insito negli ecosistemi. I modelli generativi ottenuti, chiamati Fuzzy Bayesian Ecological Model(FBEM) appaiono in grado di modellizare gli stati eco sistemici in funzione dell’ elevato numero di interazioni che entrano in gioco nella determinazione degli stati degli ecosistemi. Modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati per comprendere il rischio ambientale per habitat intertidale di spiagge sabbiose in caso di eventi di flooding costiero previsti nell’arco di tempo 2010-2100. L’applicazione è stata effettuata all’interno del progetto EU “Theseus” per il quale i modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati anche per una simulazione a lungo termine e per il calcolo dei tipping point specifici dell’habitat secondo eventi di flooding di diversa intensità.
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Healthy soils are fundamental to life. They grow the food we eat and the wood we use for shelter and fuel, purify the water we drink, and hold fast to the roots of the natural world we cherish. They are the ground beneath our feet and beneath our homes. But they are under threat, especially from human overuse and climate change. Nowhere is this more evident than in dryland areas, where soil degradation – or desertification – wears away at this essential resource, sometimes with sudden rapidity when a tipping point is crossed. Though it is a challenge, preserving and restoring healthy soils in drylands is possible, and it concerns all of us. Sustainable land management points the way.
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Kenya Growth Vision 2030 proposes policy and institutional reforms that make it possible for the country to achieve development status of a middle income country by 2030. This paper outlines the institutional framework necessary to achieve ÈSuper Growth,É which describes the character of growth required to meet targets stipulated in the Vision. The paper provides evidence confirming the importance of improving the quality of governance to the achievement of the Vision. The paper also demonstrates that the country is characterized by a high probability of reverting to poor governance. It is argued that, to achieve super growth, the country must attain an institutional tipping point which associates with low reversion rates to weaker institutions. The paper provides suggestions for institutional reforms that result in the achievement of an institutional tipping point and super growth.
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A major tipping point of Earth's history occurred during the mid-Pliocene: the onset of major Northern-Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) and of pronounced, Quaternary-style cycles of glacial-to-interglacial climates, that contrast with more uniform climates over most of the preceding Cenozoic and continue until today (Zachos et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.1059412). The severe deterioration of climate occurred in three steps between 3.2 Ma (warm MIS K3) and 2.7 Ma (glacial MIS G6/4) (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005, doi:10.1029/2004PA001071). Various models (sensu Driscoll and Haug, 1998, doi:10.1126/science.282.5388.436) and paleoceanographic records (intercalibrated using orbital age control) suggest clear linkages between the onset of NHG and the three steps in the final closure of the Central American Seaways (CAS), deduced from rising salinity differences between Caribbean and the East Pacific. Each closing event led to an enhanced North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and this strengthened the poleward transport of salt and heat (warmings of +2-3°C) (Bartoli et al., 2005, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2005.06.020). Also, the closing resulted in a slight rise in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport to northwestern Eurasia (Lunt et al., 2007, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0265-6), which probably led to an enhanced precipitation and fluvial run-off, lower sea surface salinity (SSS), and an increased sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, hence promoting albedo and the build-up of continental ice sheets. Most important, new evidence shows that the closing of the CAS led to greater steric height of the North Pacific and thus doubled the low-saline Arctic Throughflow from the Bering Strait to the East Greenland Current (EGC). Accordingly, Labrador Sea IODP Site 1307 displays an abrupt but irreversible EGC cooling of 6°C and freshening by ~2 psu from 3.25/3.16-3.00 Ma, right after the first but still reversible attempt of closing the CAS.
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The east coast of the AP is highly influenced by cold and dry air masses stemming from the adjacent Weddell Sea. By the contrary, the west coast jointly with the South Shetland Islands are directly exposed to the humid and relatively warm air masses from the South Pacific Ocean carried by the strong and persistent westerly winds. Systematic glaciological field studies are very scarce on both sides of the AP, among them can be mentioned a mass-balance program performed continuously since summer 1998/99 by the Instituto Antártico Argentino (IAA) on Vega Island, James Ross Archipelago, on the northeastern flank of the AP. Another continuous plurianual glaciological research has been initiated in 2010 jointly by the University of Bonn and the IAA at the Fourcade Glacier on King George Island (KGI) within the framework of the ESF project IMCOAST (FK 03F0617B). Two transects of mass balance stakes were installed from the top of the Warszawa Ice Dome down to the border of the glaciers Fourcade and Polar Club, to serve for calibration and validation of modeling efforts. The stakes were measured at the beginning and end of each summer field campaign in November 2010, February - March 2011, January - March 2012, and especially during the austral winter 2012 up to March 2013 every 10 to 14 days depending on weather conditions. During the austral winter 2013 and until June 2014 the measurements were conducted every 20 to 30 days, weather permitting. Snow density was measured as well in every field trip from June 2012 until June 2104, establishing a rather homogeneous value along the different parts of the glacier. Snow density in late summer, rho_s is usually higher than the one in late winter, rho_w. Seasonal average values were calculated for the area covered by the mass balance stakes, being rho_s= 471 Kg/m**3 and rho_w = 363 Kg/m**3.
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Any analysis of the prospects for stability and sustainability in the states of Syria and Lebanon reveals the strong ties that exist between these two countries and the impact of external influences on their overall development. Their trajectories, while starkly divergent in terms of the challenges confronting them at present, converge on a path of long-term unsustainability. Lebanon is in the midst of yet another transition phase, triggered by the collapse of Hariri’s government in January 2011. The current situation might be described as one of deteriorating status quo; the state is performing poorly in terms of its delivery of fundamental public services and its institutional legitimacy is tenuous in the face of emerging para-state structures and latent (occasionally active) violence. In Syria, challenges to the sustainability of the state have evolved dramatically since the beginning of 2011, and are now nearing a tipping point. In view of the mounting unrest and violence in the country, the future prospects for its economic and political development are dim. More ominously, the risk of widespread conflict, with sectarian overtones, cannot be discounted.
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Ocean acidification (OA) is known to affect bivalve early life-stages. We tested responses of blue mussel larvae to a wide range of pH in order to identify their tolerance threshold. Our results confirmed that decreasing seawater pH and decreasing saturation state increases larval mortality rate and the percentage of abnormally developing larvae. Virtually no larvae reared at average pHT 7.16 were able to feed or reach the D-shell stage and their development appeared to be arrested at the trochophore stage. However larvae were capable of reaching the D-shell stage under milder acidification (pHT=7.35, 7.6, 7.85) including in under-saturated seawater with omega Aragonite as low as 0.54±0.01 (mean±s. e. m.), with a tipping point for normal development identified at pHT 7.765. Additionally growth rate of normally developing larvae was not affected by lower pHT despite potential increased energy costs associated with compensatory calcification in response to increased shell dissolution. Overall, our results on OA impacts on mussel larvae suggest an average pHT of 7.16 is beyond their physiological tolerance threshold and indicate a shift in energy allocation towards growth in some individuals revealing potential OA resilience.
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The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.
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Our ability to project the impact of global change on marine ecosystem is limited by our poor understanding on how to predict species sensitivity. For example, the impact of ocean acidification is highly species-specific, even in closely related taxa. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the tolerance range of a given species to decreased pH corresponds to their natural range of exposure. Larvae of the green sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis were cultured from fertilization to metamorphic competence (29 days) under a wide range of pH (from pHT = 8.0/pCO2 ~ 480 ?atm to pHT = 6.5/pCO2 ~ 20 000 ?atm) covering present (from pHT 8.7 to 7.6), projected near-future variability (from pHT 8.3 to 7.2) and beyond. Decreasing pH impacted all tested parameters (mortality, symmetry, growth, morphometry and respiration). Development of normal, although showing morphological plasticity, swimming larvae was possible as low as pHT >= 7.0. Within that range, decreasing pH increased mortality and asymmetry and decreased body length (BL) growth rate. Larvae raised at lowered pH and with similar BL had shorter arms and a wider body. Relative to a given BL, respiration rates and stomach volume both increased with decreasing pH suggesting changes in energy budget. At the lowest pHs (pHT <= 6.5), all the tested parameters were strongly negatively affected and no larva survived past 13 days post fertilization. In conclusion, sea urchin larvae appeared to be highly plastic when exposed to decreased pH until a physiological tipping point at pHT = 7.0. However, this plasticity was associated with direct (increased mortality) and indirect (decreased growth) consequences for fitness.