Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

A comparison of stock market mechanisms

This paper studies the relationship between the amount of publicinformation that stock market prices incorporate and the equilibriumbehavior of market participants. The analysis is framed in a static, NREEsetup where traders exchange vectors of assets accessing multidimensionalinformation under two alternative market structures. In the first(the unrestricted system), both informed and uninformed speculators cancondition their demands for each traded asset on all equilibrium prices;in the second (the restricted system), they are restricted to conditiontheir demand on the price of the asset they want to trade. I show thatinformed traders incentives to exploit multidimensional privateinformation depend on the number of prices they can condition upon whensubmitting their demand schedules, and on the specific price formationprocess one considers. Building on this insight, I then give conditionsunder which the restricted system is more efficient than the unrestrictedsystem.

Influence of tree species on the herbaceous understory and soil chemical characteristics in a silvopastoral system in semi-arid northeastern Brazil

Studies from some semi-arid regions of the world have shown the beneficial effect of trees in silvopastoral systems, by promoting the formation of resource islands and increasing the sustainability of the system. No data are available in this respect for tree species of common occurrence in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil. In the present study, conducted in the summer of 1996, three tree species (Zyziphus joazeiro, Spondias tuberosa and Prosopis juliflora: ) found within Cenchrus ciliaris pastures were selected to evaluate differences on herbaceous understory and soil chemical characteristics between samples taken under the tree canopy and in open grass areas. Transects extending from the tree trunk to open grass areas were established, and soil (0-15 cm) and herbaceous understory (standing live biomass in 1 m² plots) samples were taken at 0, 25, 50, 100, 150 and 200% of the average canopy radius (average radius was 6.6 ± 0.5, 4.5 ± 0.5, and 5.3 ± 0.8 m for Z. joazeiro, P. juliflora, and S. tuberosa , respectively). Higher levels of soil C, N, P, Ca, Mg, K, and Na were found under the canopies of Z. joazeiro and P. juliflora: trees, as compared to open grass areas. Only soil Mg organic P were higher under the canopies of S. tuberosa trees, as compared to open grass areas. Herbaceous understory biomass was significantly lower under the canopy of S. tuberosa and P. juliflora trees (107 and 96 g m-2, respectively) relatively to open grass areas (145 and 194 g m-2). No herbaceous biomass differences were found between Z. joazeiro canopies and open grass areas (107 and 87 g m-2, respectively). Among the three tree species studied, Z. joazeiro was the one that presented the greatest potential for use in a silvopastoral system at the study site, since it had a larger nutrient stock in the soil without negatively affecting herbaceous understory biomass, relatively to open grass areas.

Carbon stock and its compartments in a subtropical oxisol under long-term tillage and crop rotation systems

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays a crucial role in soil quality and can act as an atmospheric C-CO2 sink under conservationist management systems. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effects (19 years) of tillage (CT-conventional tillage and NT-no tillage) and crop rotations (R0-monoculture system, R1-winter crop rotation, and R2- intensive crop rotation) on total, particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon (C) stocks of an originally degraded Red Oxisol in Cruz Alta, RS, Southern Brazil. The climate is humid subtropical Cfa 2a (Köppen classification), the mean annual precipitation 1,774 mm and mean annual temperature 19.2 ºC. The plots were divided into four segments, of which each was sampled in the layers 0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20, and 0.20-0.30 m. Sampling was performed manually by opening small trenches. The SOM pools were determined by physical fractionation. Soil C stocks had a linear relationship with annual crop C inputs, regardless of the tillage systems. Thus, soil disturbance had a minor effect on SOM turnover. In the 0-0.30 m layer, soil C sequestration ranged from 0 to 0.51 Mg ha-1 yr-1, using the CT R0 treatment as base-line; crop rotation systems had more influence on soil stock C than tillage systems. The mean C sequestration rate of the cropping systems was 0.13 Mg ha-1 yr-1 higher in NT than CT. This result was associated to the higher C input by crops due to the improvement in soil quality under long-term no-tillage. The particulate C fraction was a sensitive indicator of soil management quality, while mineral-associated organic C was the main pool of atmospheric C fixed in this clayey Oxisol. The C retention in this stable SOM fraction accounts for 81 and 89 % of total C sequestration in the treatments NT R1 and NT R2, respectively, in relation to the same cropping systems under CT. The highest C management index was observed in NT R2, confirming the capacity of this soil management practice to improve the soil C stock qualitatively in relation to CT R0. The results highlighted the diversification of crop rotation with cover crops as a crucial strategy for atmospheric C-CO2 sequestration and SOM quality improvement in highly weathered subtropical Oxisols.

Closed soilless growing system for producing strawberry bare root transplants and runner tips

The objective of this work was to test a closed soilless growing system for producing bare root transplants and runner tips of two strawberry clones, using two categories of substrates. The system used corrugated roofing panels of fiber-cement, over which a substrate layer was used as a growing bed. The nutrient solution was pumped from a reservoir toward the upper end of the roofing panels and drained back to a reservoir. Plant growth and development were determined for two advanced strawberry clones, grown in sand or in Plantmax organic substrate. Growth of the stock plants and the number and dry mass of bare root transplants were similar in the substrates, but bare roots differed in their crown diameters by substrate. For number of runner tips, no significant differences were found in total, small, and medium categories in the substrates. A mean production of about 590 runner tips per square meter and 145 bare root transplants per square meter was obtained. For both clones, a large number of bare root transplants and runner tips of adequate size were produced in the closed soilless growing system using sand or organic substrate.

Implementing theLean Manufacturing System

Tuottavuuden ja tehokkuuden parantaminen on keskeisimpiä menestystekijöitä glo-baaleilla markkinoilla. Yksi kehittämisen toimintamalli on lean manufacturing -ajattelutapa, joka perustuu imuohjaukseen. Sen lähtökohtana on asiakasarvo ja keskit-tyminen arvoa lisäävien toimintojen maksimointiin. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli parantaa Strömfors Electric Oy:n materiaalivirtauksia yhdellä tuotantolinjalla. Projektin oli tarkoitus olla pilotti lean-implementointiin koko tehtaalla. Projektissa otettiin käyttöön kanban-imuohjausjärjestelmä, jota varten teh-tiin analyysejä ja laskelmia arvovirtoihin, varastoihin ja ohjaukseen. Lean-ajattelutapaan ja -työkaluihin perustuvaa kirjallisuutta käytettiin pohjatietona pilotti-projektissa sekätulevien kehitysprojektien suunnittelussa. Pilottiprojektin tuloksena materiaalinohjaus tehostui ja keskeneräisen tuotannon va-rasto tasoittui käyttötarpeen mukaiseksi. Työntekijät ja työnjohtajat tutustuivat leanin perusteisiin osallistuessaan pilottiprojektiin. Pidemmän aikavälin suunnitelmissa ontoimitusvarmuuden ja laadun parantuminen ensin pilottiprojektia koskevalla linjalla ja myöhemmin koko tehtaalla imuohjauksen kokonaisvaltaisen käyttöönoton myötä.

Market efficiency and calendar anomalies in the Russian stock market

Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on tarkastella esiintyykö Venäjän osakemarkkinoilla kalenterianomalioita. Tutkimus keskittyy Halloween-, kuukausi-, kuunvaihde-, viikonpäivä- ja juhlapäiväanomalioiden tarkasteluun. Tutkimusaineistona käytetään RTS (Russian Trading System) indeksiä. Tarkasteluaika alkaa 1. syyskuuta 1995 ja loppuu 31. joulukuuta 2005. Havaintojen kokonaismäärä on 2584. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että Venäjän osakemarkkinoilla esiintyy Halloween-, kuunvaihde- ja viikonpäiväanomalioita. Sen sijaan kuukausi- ja juhlapäiväanomalioita ei tulosten mukaanesiinny Venäjän osakemarkkinoilla. Tulokset osoittavat lisäksi, että suurin osaanomalioista on merkittävämpiä nykyään kuin Venäjän osakemarkkinoiden ensimmäisinä vuosina. Näiden tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että Venäjän osakemarkkinat eivät ole vielä tehokkaat.

Consignment Stock Concept for Corporation’s Inbound Logistics

Kaupintavaraston käyttäminen yrityksen hankintalogistiikassa vapauttaa varastoihin sitoutuneita pääomia, parantaa palveluastetta ja syventää asiakkaan ja toimittajan välistä yhteistyötä. Tulevaisuudessa menetelmää tullaan käyttämään laajenevassa määrin keinona logistisen kilpailukyvyn ja kustannustehokkuuden parantamisessa.Tämän työn tavoitteena oli selvittää yrityksen hankintalogistiikkaan soveltuvan kaupintavarastontoiminnan vaatimukset ja kehittää konsernin eri toimialoille yhtenäinen konsepti. Selvitys aloitettiin tutkimalla kirjallisuutta ja yrityksen asiakkaalla käytössä olevaa kaupintavarastoratkaisua, jonka jälkeen käytännön ongelmia kartoitettiin pilottiprojektin avulla.Tuloksena saatiin konsepti, jossa on käsitelty kaupintavaraston käyttöönottoa varten tarvittavat erityispiirteet kansainvälisessä kaupankäynnissä. Toimittajien ja toimitusketjujen erilaisista rakenteista johtuen yksityiskohdat on mietittävä jokaisen toimittajan kanssa erikseen.

Application of Neural Network Methods in the Prediction of Stock Markets

The purpose of the research is to define practical profit which can be achieved using neural network methods as a prediction instrument. The thesis investigates the ability of neural networks to forecast future events. This capability is checked on the example of price prediction during intraday trading on stock market. The executed experiments show predictions of average 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes’ prices based on data of one day and made by two different types of forecasting systems. These systems are based on the recurrent neural networks and back propagation neural nets. The precision of the predictions is controlled by the absolute error and the error of market direction. The economical effectiveness is estimated by a special trading system. In conclusion, the best structures of neural nets are tested with data of 31 days’ interval. The best results of the average percent of profit from one transaction (buying + selling) are 0.06668654, 0.188299453, 0.349854787 and 0.453178626, they were achieved for prediction periods 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes. The investigation can be interesting for the investors who have access to a fast information channel with a possibility of every-minute data refreshment.

Tests of International Asset Pricing Models in Scandinavian Stock Markets

This thesis examines whether global, local and exchange risks are priced in Scandinavian countries’ equity markets by using conditional international asset pricing models. The employed international asset pricing models are the world capital asset pricing model, the international asset pricing model augmented with the currency risk, and the partially segmented model augmented with the currency risk. Moreover, this research traces estimated equity risk premiums for the Scandinavian countries. The empirical part of the study is performed using generalized method of moments approach. Monthly observations from February 1994 to June 2007 are used. Investors’ conditional expectations are modeled using several instrumental variables. In order to keep system parsimonious the prices of risk are assumed to be constant whereas expected returns and conditional covariances vary over time. The empirical findings of this thesis suggest that the prices of global and local market risk are priced in the Scandinavian countries. This indicates that the Scandinavian countries are mildly segmented from the global markets. Furthermore, the results show that the exchange risk is priced in the Danish and Swedish stock markets when the partially segmented model is augmented with the currency risk factor.

The intrinsic mechanisms of softwood fiber damage in brown stock fiber line unit operations Lappeenranta 2010

The effects of pulp processing on softwood fiber properties strongly influence the properties of wet and dry paper webs. Pulp strength delivery studies have provided observations that much of the strength potential of long fibered pulp is lost during brown stock fiber line operations where the pulp is merely washed and transferred to the subsequent processing stages. The objective of this work was to study the intrinsic mechanisms which maycause fiber damage in the different unit operations of modern softwood brown stock processing. The work was conducted by studying the effects of industrial machinery on pulp properties with some actions of unit operations simulated in laboratory scale devices under controlled conditions. An optical imaging system was created and used to study the orientation of fibers in the internal flows during pulp fluidization in mixers and the passage of fibers through the screen openings during screening. The qualitative changes in fibers were evaluated with existing and standardized techniques. The results showed that each process stage has its characteristic effects on fiber properties: Pulp washing and mat formation in displacement washers introduced fiber deformations especially if the fibers entering the stage were intact, but it did not decrease the pulp strength properties. However, storage chests and pulp transfer after displacement washers contributed to strength deterioration. Pulp screening proved to be quite gentle, having the potential of slightly evening out fiber deformations from very deformed pulps and vice versa inflicting a marginal increase in the deformation indices if the fibers were previously intact. Pulp mixing in fluidizing industrial mixers did not have detrimental effects on pulp strength and had the potential of slightly evening out the deformations, provided that the intensity of fluidization was high enough to allow fiber orientation with the flow and that the time of mixing was short. The chemical and mechanical actions of oxygen delignification had two distinct effects on pulp properties: chemical treatment clearly reduced pulp strength with and without mechanical treatment, and the mechanical actions of process machinery introduced more conformability to pulp fibers, but did not clearly contribute to a further decrease in pulp strength. The chemical composition of fibers entering the oxygen stage was also found to affect the susceptibility of fibers to damage during oxygen delignification. Fibers with the smallest content of xylan were found to be more prone to irreversibledeformations accompanied with a lower tensile strength of the pulp. Fibers poor in glucomannan exhibited a lower fiber strength while wet after oxygen delignification as compared to the reference pulp. Pulps with the smallest lignin content on the other hand exhibited improved strength properties as compared to the references.

DYNAMICS OF LEAF FALL FROM RIPARIAN VEGETATION AND THE ACCUMULATION IN BENTHIC STOCK IN NEOTROPICAL STREAMS1

ABSTRACT Considering the importance of the riparian vegetation leaves as an energetic source to first order streams, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the leaf biomass contribution to the system and its temporal dynamics. With this purpose, monthly samples from July 2008 to June 2009 were collected using four sampling devices installed in three streams, in order to collect the vertical, lateral and terrestrial loads, and the benthic stock. We tested the following hypothesis: (1) leaf biomass input is higher after hydric stress periods; and (2) benthic stock biomass increase with higher loads from vertical and lateral entrances. Leaves represented 71.9% (on average) of all sampled allochthonous matter, with seasonal significant variation along the studied year. Peaks of leaf input were registered in September-October, after an increase in rainfall, and also in January, after a decrease in rainfall. Leaf input was higher in the lateral load.

The Russian National Innovation System - an International Perspective

Russia inherited a large research and development (R&D) sector from the Soviet times, and has retained a substantial R&D sector today, compared with other emerging economies. However, Russia is falling behind in all indicators measuring innovative output in comparison with most developed countries. Russia’s innovation performance is disappointing, despite the available stock of human capital and overall investment in R&D. The communist legacy still influences the main actors of the innovation system. The federal state is still the most important funding source for R&D. Private companies are not investing in innovative activities, preferring to “import” innovations embedded in foreign technologies. Universities are outsiders in the innovation system, only a few universities carry out research activities. Nowadays, Russia is a resource-depended country. The economy depends on energy and metals for growth. The Russian economy faces the challenge of diversification and should embrace innovation, and shift to a knowledge economy to remain competitive in the long run. Therefore, Russia has to tackle the challenge of developing an efficient innovation system with its huge potential in science expertise and engineering know-how.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Population Characteristics of Prawns in Natural and Selective Stocking System

present work deals with the various aspects of population characteristics of penaeus indicus ,Metapenaeus dobsoni and metapenaeus monoceros during their nursery phase in tidal ponds and adjacent backwaters.Importance of the present study is to suggest scientific basis for the management of penaeid resources in tidal ponds and backwaters based on their biological characteristics to ensure better yield.Seasonal closure of fishing will be effective in improving the size of the shrimp at harvest.Hydrology of tidal ponds varied with location, but showed a common seasonal pattem.Seasonal variation in temperature was very small. It fluctuated between 27.5 to 32.3°C in tidalponds and 26.9 to 29.9°C in open backwaters.Improvement of nursery habitats with due consideration for biological requirements of the resource will ensure better growth, survival and abundance of the stock.The recruitment, growth and emigration data of prawns from their nurseries can be used successfully for fishery forecasting. projecting juvenile growth forward through time, it is possible to establish, which cohort contributes to offshore fishery each year. So, by interpreting the recruitment and growth data of species in their nurseries with offshore catch data, fishery can be forecasted successfully.