Discovering future disaster management capability needs using scenario planning

In recent years disaster risk reduction efforts have focused on disturbances ranging from climate variability, seismic hazards, geo-political instability and public and animal health crises. These factors combined with uncertainty derived from inter-dependencies within and across systems of critical infrastructure create significant problems of governance for the private and public sector alike. The potential for rapid spread of impacts, geographically and virtually, can render a comprehensive understanding of disaster response and recovery needs and risk mitigation issues beyond the grasp of competent authority. Because of such cascading effects communities and governments at local and state-levels are unlikely to face single incidents but rather series of systemic impacts: often appearing concurrently. A further point to note is that both natural and technological hazards can act directly on socio-technical systems as well as being propagated by them: as network events. Such events have been categorised as ‘outside of the box,’ ‘too fast,’ and ‘too strange’ (Lagadec, 2004). Emergent complexities in linked systems can make disaster effects difficult to anticipate and recovery efforts difficult to plan for. Beyond the uncertainties of real world disasters, that might be called familiar or even regular, can we safely assume that the generic capability we use now will suit future disaster contexts? This paper presents initial scoping of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre seeking to define future capability needs of disaster management organisations. It explores challenges to anticipating the needs of representative agencies and groups active in before, during and after phases of emergency and disaster situations using capability deficit assessments and scenario assessment.

Combining detached watchdog journalism with development ideals: An exploration of Fijian journalism culture

Development journalism has been a key focus of discussion among journalism scholars for around half a decade, but most of the attention has been firmly on African and Asian countries. This paper examines the situation on the little-researched island nation of Fiji, which has experienced considerable political instability since independence in 1970. Based on interviews with 77 of the country’s small population of just over 100 journalists, we find that journalism in Fiji exhibits similarities to Western journalism ideals, but also a significant development journalism orientation. A comparison with six other countries from the global South shows that this mix is not unique, and we argue that Western journalism approaches and development ideals are not by necessity mutually exclusive, as has often been argued. In this way, the article aims to contribute to a reassessment of our understanding of development journalism and how journalists in developing societies view their work.

Memoirs of an immigrant and his ashtray

The memoirs were written in 1999. Childhood memories in a small town in Lower Austria. Passion for playing football (soccer). Recollections of daily life with rituals of coffeehouse visits and family dinners in the countryside. First experiences of antisemitism in the mid 1930s. Rising Nazi movement and illegal meetings in the local community. Annexation of Austria in 1938. First encounters with anti-Jewish regulations and discrimination by neighbors and acquaintances. Walter experienced severe difficulties at school and was frequently insulted and beaten up. Decision to leave school. The family was forced to leave Eggenburg soon thereafter, and the town declared itself "Judenfrei" (free of Jews). Move to Vienna, where they stayed with relatives. Walter, who had been brought up as a Catholic, suddenly saw himself confronted with orthodox Jewish people of different customs. Increasing restrictions for Jews. Walter was enrolled in a program at the Vienna Jewish community to learn carpentry. Recollections of the terror of Kristallnacht. Walter and his brother Ludwig were signed up for a children transport to England by the Quaker organization and left Vienna in December 1938. Difficult feeling to depart from their parents. Arrival in Harwige. They were taken to a camp in Lowestoft. Cultural differences. Walter and his brother were sent to a training farm in Parbold. Simple living conditions and difficult circumstances. Farm work and school lessons. Outbreak of the war. Scarce news of their parents, who tried to leave for Argentina. Walter's older brother Ludwig was sent to an internment camp in Adelaide, Australia. After two years he volunteered in the Pioneer Corps and returned to England. In 1941 their parents finally managed to emigrate to Argentina. Walter decided to join them, and in 1943 he left for Buenos Aires. During the passage on the Atlantic the ship was sunk by a German submarine. Rescue by the US Army. Continuation of his trip via New York.

Memoirs : Heida Hermanns Holde /

The author's mother Alice Goldschmidt was a gifted piano player, who studied with Carl Maria Breithaupt and became his most talented student. Childhood recollections. Early musical awakening. Outbreak of World War One. Recollections of air raids and scarceness of food. Inflation and political instability in post-war Germany. Piano lessons by her mother from an early age. Heida made her debut at age fourteen with the Wiesbaden Symphony under the conductor Carl Schuricht, who became a close mentor and friend. Close relationship to her mother, who had a great influence on her professional career. Heida had a number of outstanding teachers, among them Artur Schnabel, Karl Leimer and Egon Petri. Heida was accepted as a student of Petri at the "Hochschule fuer Musik" in Berlin, where she studied between 1922-1925. Salon at her aunt's house with guests such as the playwright Georg Kaiser and Siegfried Wagner. Her sister Elsie received her Ph.D. in economics and moved to Berlin as well. Heida graduated from the "Hochschule" in 1925. Soon after she won an international piano competition in Berlin. Engagements with various conductors such as Max Fiedler and Otto Klemperer. Private lessons with Arthur Schnabel and Carl Friedberg, the co-founder of Juilliard. Due to occasional experiences of antisemitism during her music career Heida decided to change her name from Goldschmidt to Hermanns. Position at the "Hoch Conservatory" in Frankfurt. Encounter with the music critic Artur Holde, Heida's future-husband. Engagement and wedding in 1932. Move to Berlin.

Polarización política, rigideces presupuestarias e inflación

Resumen: Los distintos países muestran historias inflacionarias muy diversas. La literatura económica señala a las caracterÍsticas del sistema polÍtico como uno de los factores que explican estas diferencias. En particular, la inestabilidad y la polarización política son destacadas como factores que inciden en un mayor nivel y una mayor volatilidad de la inflación. Este trabajo presenta una explicación novedosa para este vínculo. El trabajo muestra que las rigideces presupuestarias (en particular, la inflexibilidad a la baja del gasto público nominal) pueden llevar a que un mayor grado de polarización política aumente el nivel y la volatilidad de la tasa inflación.

Na corda bamba do trabalho: a instabilidade social e o sofrimento do trabalhador na era da flexibilização

O ser humano que não consegue pôr outra finalidade na vida, além de viver, e não encontra os meios para realizar este fim ou tem dificuldade de encontrar vivo o cenário limite do transtorno. Como na sociedade capitalista, trabalho é sinônimo de garantia de subsistência, seja da vida do trabalhador, seja do sistema capitalista em si, entendemos que, no capitalismo, encontrar os meios materiais para garantir a continuidade da vida está diretamente relacionado ao trabalho e, assim sendo, as transformações recentes no mundo do trabalho afetam a qualidade de vida dos trabalhadores sendo causa de transtornos mentais comuns. Tudo mais pode ser instável, menos a garantia da vida. Por isso elencamos a instabilidade social como chave de leitura, comparando o padrão produtivo fordista, pseudoestável e o processo de transformação à era flexível, de plena instabilidade. A instabilidade social não é nova no capitalismo, contudo, informalidade, terceirização e intensificação do trabalho num cenário onde a força de trabalho é igualada a uma mercadoria como qualquer outra, por um processo de laissezferização, são as características marcantes da instabilidade social contemporânea. Por fim, uma análise documental é realizada para balizar a preocupação acadêmica com os organismos internacionais, o poder público e as organizações trabalhadoras sobre o tema dos transtornos mentais comuns, identificando disparidade entre os eixos investigados.

Local solutions to challenges of West Indian Ocean fisheries development

The West Indian Ocean is rich in biodiversity and marine resources. This paper gives an overview of fisheries development and resource management in the region. There are many shared issues that must be addressed within countries and at the regional level. These are illustrated by examples from three countries. In Mozambique the issues of lack of information about artisanal fisheries, excessive harvesting of juveniles and conflicts between artisanal and commercial sectors are highlighted. Elements in addressing this include targeted research and decision-making support tools. The challenges faced in Somalia stem primarily from the political instability that contributed to an absence of sound fisheries policy. An example of a highly participatory process to develop the policy provides a model for other countries. In Tanzania, the issue of dynamite fishing was addressed by local communities initiating a program to promote wise use of the resources. There is a clear opportunity for better collaboration and greater integration of fisheries research and management on a regional basis. There is also much to be learnt by the sharing of experiences between countries. This has been initiated by some recently launched regional cooperation projects, but there are still many challenges facing this region.

Movimentos negros, Estado e participação institucional no Brasil e Colômbia em perspectiva comparada

A presente tese examina a relação entre movimentos negros e estado no Brasil e na Colômbia no período imediatamente anterior à promulgação de suas respectivas cartas constitucionais e ao longo das duas décadas que se seguem à adoção dessas novas legislações. No final dos anos 1980, os discursos oficiais que celebravam a mestiçagem e a democracia racial vão sendo gradativamente vertidos para complexas noções de cidadania multicultural, direitos étnico-territoriais e igualdade racial. Assim, este estudo analisa o papel desempenhado pelos movimentos negros para a mudança nas legislações estatais e suas consequências em termos de incremento na participação institucional e reorientação dos repertórios de ação coletiva dos movimentos. Os resultados encontrados por este trabalho, analisados à luz das teorias do Processo Político, indicam que quanto maior a abertura de oportunidades políticas e discursivas maior o impacto políticoinstitucional do movimento negro. A primeira parte da tese demonstra que mudanças no cenário político internacional, com a ascensão de discursos sobre multiculturalismo, e nos contextos nacionais, com o aumento da instabilidade política e processos de redemocratização política, propiciaram uma importante abertura de oportunidades políticas paras os movimentos negros em ambos os países. A tese argumenta ainda que os debates acadêmicos sobre raça e etnicidade também influenciaram os discursos e estratégias dos movimentos negros em seus respectivos países. De maneira específica, no Brasil, o discurso sobre igualdade racial, forjado nas fronteiras entre academia e ativismo, adquire centralidade política tanto para atores estatais quanto para atores não-estatais. Na Colômbia, em contrapartida, é o discurso étnico-territorial que orienta os debates por inclusão sociopolítica de afrocolombianos. A segunda parte da tese analisa a participação institucional dos movimentos negros em ambos os países. São examinados, especificamente, a criação de legislações, políticas públicas e canais formais de participação para as populações afrodescendentes e seu impacto nas estratégias, estrutura organizacional e redes de solidariedade dos movimentos negros. Investiga-se também a ampliação dos vínculos entre os movimentos e órgãos governamentais, a consolidação dos laços com partidos políticos e as interações cooperativas e/ou conflitivas com o estado. A tese contribui para o campo de estudos afrolatinos, ao descortinar processos emergentes de politização racial na América do Sul, e para a ampliação do debate acerca das relações entre os movimentos sociais e institucionalidade, aludindo à novas possibilidades interpretativas que escapem ao já defasado binômio autonomia versus cooptação que têm marcado a literatura sobre a temática.

Harnessing the slipstream: building educational research capacity in Northern Ireland. Size matters

Northern Ireland is uniquely distinguished from England, Scotland and Wales, by being a society in transition, emerging from a prolonged period of civil conflict and political instability that has affected its infrastructure and has increased the need for co-ordinated and specialist research. The paper traces some of the systemic challenges and opportunities for educational research capacity-building that arise from Northern Ireland being uniquely positioned as a small polity and critically appraises how initiatives elsewhere, while providing valuable exemplars, are unlikely to transfer readily to this context. Rather, building on an expanded definition of research capacity, Northern Ireland needs to capitalize cautiously on the current climate of openness between policymaker and researcher communities to develop a shared, cohesive agenda, improve research support and harness the strengths and pockets of excellence that exist. All of these should simultaneously go towards meeting local priority research needs, addressing the developmental capacity building needs of local researcher, while at the same time contributing to local, national and international knowledge production.

The Historical Use of Amnesties, Immunities, and Sentence Reductions in Northern Ireland

While it is widely believed that the use of amnesties and similar measures would mark a new departure in NI and the UK, so that speculation about their introduction causes public controversy and threatens political instability, the report demonstrates that such measures have in fact been repeatedly used in a wide range of circumstances since the foundation of the NI state. The paper offers definitions of the key measures which have been employed, including amnesties, sentence reductions linked to peace building and use immunities. It explores their historical use and its consequences.

Biodiversity and conservation of the middle-Araguaia herpetofauna

A conservação da biodiversidade nunca foi uma assunto tão popular como nas últimas décadas, mas esta popularidade crescente é devida à pior das razões: o passo acelerado da extinção de espécies e habitats. Os ecossistemas tropicais são, ao mesmo tempo, os mais diversos e os mais ameaçados, em parte porque muitos países destas regiões emergem ainda de situações de instabilidade social, económica e política. O Brasil é o maior país Neotropical, onde se encontram alguns dos biomas com maior diversidade e mais ameaçados do planeta. Actualmente, é também um país líder ao nível da planificação e implementação de medidas de conservação da biodiversidade. Vários dos biomas tropicais mais diversos e ameaçados encontram-se em território brasileiro. Dois destes biomas, a Amazónia e o Cerrado, convergem numa região ecotonal sujeita a uma elevada pressão humana, conhecida como o arco do desmatamento. O Araguaia, um dos maiores rios do Brasil, corre ao longo desta paisagem e os efeitos do desmatamento são já evidentes em toda a sua bacia. Por causa do acelerado ritmo de degradação deste ecossistema, torna-se urgente obter uma imagem clara da biodiversidade regional e compreender como e se a estratégia de conservação para esta região é capaz de lidar com as correntes ameaças e alcançar o seu objectivo a longo prazo: conservar a biota regional. Tendo a herpetofauna como grupo-alvo, os nossos objectivos principais foram: aumentar o conhecimento das comunidades de anfíbios e répteis squamata da região do curso médio do Rio Araguaia; compreender a importância deste rio nos padrões intraespecíficos de estrutura e diversidade genética para diferentes espécies com diferentes características ecológicas; avaliar o potencial de diferentes metodologias para o estudo e monitorização da herpetofauna regional. Os nossos resultados revelam que a amostragem continuada e o uso de diferentes técnicas são essenciais para a obtenção de uma imagem precisa da diversidade da herpetofauna local. As comunidades locais de anfíbios e lagartos apresentaram maior riqueza específica na Área de Protecção Ambiental Bananal/Cantão (APABC), uma área tampão, do no Parque Estadual do Cantão (PEC), uma área de conservação estrita. A APABC é caracterizada por uma maior heterogeneidade de habitats e os nosso resultados corroboram a teoria da heterogeneidade espacial e resultados recentes que revelam uma maior diversidade de lagartos nas zonas interfluviais do Cerrado, do que nas matas de galeria. Os resultados aqui apresentados não corroboram a hipótese de que os ecótonos apresentam maior diversidade do que os biomas em redor. Os nossos resultados revelaram ainda que o Rio Araguaia afecta de forma diferente a estrutura genética de várias espécies de anfíbios e lagartos. Estas diferenças poderão estar relacionadas com a ecologia das espécies, nomeadamente com o uso de diferentes habitats, a vagilidade, ou a estratégia alimentar. Sugerimos que a gestão integração de diferentes unidades de conservação, com diferentes estatutos, podem ajudar a preservar melhor a biota regional.

Essays on education and family planning

Le capital humain d’un pays est un facteur important de sa croissance et de son développement à long terme. Selon l’Unicef, ce capital humain est constitué en donnant à chaque enfant un bon départ dans la vie : non seule- ment la possibilité de survivre, mais aussi les conditions nécessaires pour se développer et réaliser tout son potentiel. Malheureusement, cet état de fait est loin d’être une réalité en Afrique Subsaharienne. En effet, selon toujours l’Unicef et sur la base d’enquêtes ménages dans 21 pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre, c’est près de 32 millions d’enfants qui ont l’âge officiel d’être scolarisés, mais qui ne le sont pas. A ces chiffres, il faut ajouter 17 millions d’enfants scolarisés qui risquent fortement l’exclusion. De son Côté, l’OMS pointe du doigt la mauvaise santé des enfants dans cette région. Ainsi, les décès d’enfants sont de plus en plus concentrés en Afrique subsaharienne où les enfants ont plus de 15 fois plus de risques de mourir avant l’âge de cinq ans que les enfants des régions développées. Les difficultés économiques apparaissent comme la première explication des obstacles à l’amélioration du bien être des enfants aussi bien du côté de l’offre que de la demande. Cette thèse relie trois essais sur d’une part le lien entre conflit armés, l’éducation et la mortalité des enfants et d’autre part sur le lien entre fertilité et éducation des enfants en milieu urbain. Le premier chapitre identifie l’impact de la crise politico-militaire de la Côte d’Ivoire sur le bien être des enfants, en particulier sur l’éducation et la mor- talité infanto-juvénile en exploitant la variation temporelle et géographique de la crise. Il ressort de cette analyse que les individus qui vivaient dans les régions de conflit et qui ont atteint durant la crise, l’âge officiel d’entrer à l’école ont 10% moins de chance d’être inscrits à l’école. Les élèves qui habitaient dans des régions de conflit pendant la crise ont subit une diminu- tion du nombre d’années scolaire d’au moins une année. Les élèves les plus v vi âgés et qui sont susceptibles d’être au secondaire ont connu une décroissance du nombre d’année scolaire d’au moins deux années. Il ressort également que la crise ivoirienne a accru la mortalité infanto-juvénile d’au moins 3%. Mes résultats suggèrent également que la détérioration des conditions de vie et la limitation de l’utilisation des services de santé au cours du conflit con- tribuent à expliquer ces effets négatifs. Des tests de robustesse incluant un test de placebo suggèrent que les résultats ne sont pas dus à des différences préexistantes entre les régions affectées par le conflit et celles non affectées. Le deuxième chapitre étudie les disparités intra-urbaines en matière d’arbitrage entre le nombre d’enfant et la scolarisation des enfants en se focalisant sur le cas de Ouagadougou (Capitale du Burkina Faso). Dans cette ville, au moins 33% des deux millions d’habitants vivent dans des zones informelles (appelées localement des zones non-loties). Cette sous-population manque d’infrastructures socioéconomiques de base et a un niveau d’éducation très bas. Dans ce chapitre, prenant en compte la possible endogénéité du nombre d’enfants et en utilisant une approche "two-step control function" avec des modèles Probit, nous investiguons les différences de comportement des mé- nages en matière de scolarisation entre zones formelles et zones informelles. Nous nous focalisons en particulier sur l’arbitrage entre la "quantité" et la "qualité" des enfants. Compte tenu de l’hétérogénéité des deux types de zones, nous utilisons les probabilités prédites pour les comparer. Nos princi- pales conclusions sont les suivantes. Tout d’abord, nous trouvons un impact négatif de la taille de la famille sur le niveau de scolarisation dans les deux types de zone. Cependant, nous constatons que l’impact est plus aigu dans les zones informelles. Deuxièmement, si nous supposons que le caractère en- dogène du nombre d’enfants est essentiellement due à la causalité inverse, les résultats suggèrent que dans les zones formelles les parents tiennent compte de la scolarisation des enfants dans la décision de leur nombre d’enfants, mais ce ne est pas le cas dans les zones informelles. Enfin, nous constatons que, pour des familles avec les mêmes caractéristiques observables, la probabilité d’atteindre le niveau post-primaire est plus élevée dans les zones formelles que dans les zones informelles. En terme d’implications politique, selon ces résultats, les efforts pour améliorer la scolarisation des enfants ne doivent pas être dirigées uniquement vers les zones rurales. En plus de réduire les frais de scolarité dans certaines zones urbaines, en particulier les zones informelles, un accent particulier devrait être mis sur la sensibilisation sur les avantages de l’éducation pour le bien-être des enfants et leur famille. Enfin, du point vii de vue méthodologique, nos résultats montrent l’importance de tenir compte de l’hétérogénéité non observée entre les sous-populations dans l’explication des phénomènes socio-économiques. Compte tenu du lien négatif entre la taille de la famille et la scolarisation des enfants d’une part et les différences intra-urbaines de comportement des ménages en matière de scolarisation, le trosième chapitre étudie le rôle des types de méthodes contraceptives dans l’espacement des naissances en mi- lieu urbain. Ainsi, en distinguant les méthodes modernes et traditionnelles et en utilisant l’histoire génétique des femmes, ce chapitre fait ressortir des différences de comportement en matière de contraception entre les femmes des zones formelles et informelles à Ouagadougou (capitale du Burkina Faso). Les résultats montrent que les deux types de méthodes contraceptives aug- mentent l’écart des naissances et diminuent la probabilité qu’une naissance se produise moins de 24 mois après la précédente. Prendre en compte les caractéristiques non observées mais invariants avec le temps ne modifie pas significativement l’amplitude du coefficient de l’utilisation de la contracep- tion moderne dans les deux types de zone. Toutefois, dans la zone informelle, la prise en compte les effets fixes des femmes augmentent significativement l’effet des méthodes traditionnelles. Les normes sociales, la perception de la planification familiale et le rôle du partenaire de la femme pourraient expli- quer ces différences de comportement entre les zones formelles et informelles. Par conséquent, pour améliorer l’utilisation de la contraception et de leur efficacité, il est essentiel de hiérarchiser les actions en fonction du type de sous-population, même dans les zones urbaines.

Between pragmatism and the defence of a “Sister State” : the national association for the advancement of colored people and the U.S. occupation of Haiti, 1915-1922

À l’origine, la nouvelle concernant l’occupation américaine d’Haïti en 1915 a suscité peu d’indignation aux États-Unis. En effet, on reproche à la république son instabilité politique et on juge aussi qu’une intervention américaine concourrait à l’édifice de l’autorité de la loi. À partir de 1915 et surtout en 1920, l’Association nationale pour l’avancement des gens de couleur (NAACP), fondée en 1909, critique cette ingérence et milite pour y voir un terme. W.E. B. Du Bois et James Weldon Johnson, deux figures publiques noires importantes travaillant au sein de l’organisation, dénoncent avec conviction l’occupation d’Haïti. Les historiens ont jusqu’ici jugé que la NAACP fut inspirée par des considérations de solidarité raciale en adhérant à la cause de la souveraineté haïtienne. Si la thèse présente ne réfute pas cette possibilité, elle cherche tout de même à démontrer que le cadre conceptuel de la solidarité raciale ne saurait illustrer toute la complexité de la campagne haïtienne érigée par la NAACP. Par conséquent, une attention dirigée davantage sur le contexte social et politique américain entre 1915 et 1922 révèle que pour la NAACP, la dénonciation de l’occupation américaine d’Haïti représentait d’une part une opportunité de discuter des problèmes sociaux touchant les Afro-Américains, et d’autre part, une occasion de renforcer sa position aux États-Unis.

The circular economy and the water-food nexus

The global economy is based on a take-make-consume and dispose model where natural resources are turned into products and the waste disposed of instead of being reused as a resource. In the Asia-Pacific region climate change along with rapid population and economic growth is resulting in increased demand for water and food, potentially leading to economic and political instability. Europe has developed policy and technological innovations that can facilitate the transition towards a circular economy where waste becomes a resource. By using existing instruments Europe can transfer its circular economy knowledge and technology to the Asia-Pacific region to increase security of supply of scarce resources. This can help ensure global security, influence climate change negotiations and create jobs in Europe.

Identificación de escenarios a futuro para lograr competitividad en el sector de telefonía móvil en Colombia al año 2020

Este trabajo pretende explorar el desarrollo del sector de la telefonía móvil desde sus inicios hasta la actualidad en Colombia, con el fin de generar escenarios de futuro. Las herramientas prospectivas MicMac (Análisis Estructural Prospectivo), Smic (Sistema de Matrices de Impactos Cruzados) y la opinión de expertos líderes del sector, son la base principal para el desarrollo del trabajo. Las entidades gubernamentales, la CTR (Comisión de Regulación de Telecomunicaciones), y los líderes de los operadores del sector de telefonía móvil, entre otros, se han concientizado que la innovación es la base del éxito en este tipo de organizaciones y por eso se ha trabajado en mejorar su regulación, logrando de esta manera que el desarrollo de los productos y servicios que se ofrecen sean cada vez mejores y perjudique en menor medida al medio ambiente y a los usuarios. Este subsector de las telecomunicaciones, es el más dinámico y con mayor potencial. Sin embargo, este también es afectado por las condiciones económicas del mercado, la inestabilidad política, las importaciones y exportaciones derivadas de los tratados comerciales, entre otros temas. El escenario apuesta facilitaría la prestación de productos con tecnología de punta y servicios con la mejor cobertura y acceso posible a precios bajos.