Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Studies on nonlinear optical materials: structure of diphenylmethyl (Z)-1-(1-methylthio-2-nitrovinyl)tetrahydropyrrole-2-carboxylate

C21H22N2045, M r = 398.5, orthorhombic, P212~21, a = 9.799 (1), b = 11.853 (1), c = 17.316(2)/~, V=2011.4A 3, Z=4, Dm=l.320, Dx=1.314Mgm -3, CuKa, A=1.5418A, Iz= 1.63 ram-1, F(000) = 840.0, T = 293 K, R = 0.055 for 1735 significant reflections. In the 1-methylthio-2- nitrovinyl moiety the C--C bond, 1.368 (7)A, is significantly longer than in ethylene, 1.336 (2)/~. The second harmonic generation (SHG) efficiency of this compound is only 0.25 of the urea standard. The correlation between the molecular packing and SHG is discussed.

Nonlinear hydrodynamics of a hard-sphere fluid near the glass transition

We conduct a numerical study of the dynamic behavior of a dense hard-sphere fluid by deriving and integrating a set of Langevin equations. The statics of the system is described by a free-energy functional of the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff form. We find that the system exhibits glassy behavior as evidenced through a stretched exponential decay and a two-stage relaxation of the density correlation function. The characteristic times grow with increasing density according to the Vogel-Fulcher law. The wave-number dependence of the kinetics is extensively explored. The connection of our results with experiment, mode-coupling theory, and molecular-dynamics results is discussed.

Physical characterization of the organic nonlinear optical crystal � 3-methoxy 4-hydroxy benzaldehyde

We highlight our recent experimental work on an efficient molecular nonlinear optical crystal, 3-methoxy 4-hydroxy benzaldehyde (MHBA). Optical quality single crystals of MHBA were grown from mixtures of solvents and from melt. The overall absorption and transparency window were improved by growing them in a mixture of chloroform and acetone. The grown crystals were characterized for their optical transmission, mechanical hardness and laser damage. We have observed a strong correlation between mechanical properties and laser induced damage.

Perturbative growth of cosmological clustering .2. The two-point correlation

We use the BBGKY hierarchy equations to calculate, perturbatively, the lowest order nonlinear correction to the two-point correlation and the pair velocity for Gaussian initial conditions in a critical density matter-dominated cosmological model. We compare our results with the results obtained using the hydrodynamic equations that neglect pressure and find that the two match, indicating that there are no effects of multistreaming at this order of perturbation. We analytically study the effect of small scales on the large scales by calculating the nonlinear correction for a Dirac delta function initial two-point correlation. We find that the induced two-point correlation has a x(-6) behavior at large separations. We have considered a class of initial conditions where the initial power spectrum at small k has the form k(n) with 0 < n less than or equal to 3 and have numerically calculated the nonlinear correction to the two-point correlation, its average over a sphere and the pair velocity over a large dynamical range. We find that at small separations the effect of the nonlinear term is to enhance the clustering, whereas at intermediate scales it can act to either increase or decrease the clustering. At large scales we find a simple formula that gives a very good fit for the nonlinear correction in terms of the initial function. This formula explicitly exhibits the influence of small scales on large scales and because of this coupling the perturbative treatment breaks down at large scales much before one would expect it to if the nonlinearity were local in real space. We physically interpret this formula in terms of a simple diffusion process. We have also investigated the case n = 0, and we find that it differs from the other cases in certain respects. We investigate a recently proposed scaling property of gravitational clustering, and we find that the lowest order nonlinear terms cause deviations from the scaling relations that are strictly valid in the linear regime. The approximate validity of these relations in the nonlinear regime in l(T)-body simulations cannot be understood at this order of evolution.

Fluctuation-dissipation relation for nonlinear Langevin equations

It is shown that the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is satisfied by the solutions of a general set of nonlinear Langevin equations with a quadratic free-energy functional (constant susceptibility) and field-dependent kinetic coefficients, provided the kinetic coefficients satisfy the Onsager reciprocal relations for the irreversible terms and the antisymmetry relations for the reversible terms. The analysis employs a perturbation expansion of the nonlinear terms, and a functional integral calculation of the correlation and response functions, and it is shown that the fluctuation-dissipation relation is satisfied at each order in the expansion.

Artifact-free reconstruction from off-axis digital holograms through nonlinear filtering

We present experimental investigation of a new reconstruction method for off-axis digital holographic microscopy (DHM). This method effectively suppresses the object auto-correlation, commonly called the zero-order term, from holographic measurements, thereby suppressing the artifacts generated by the intensities of the two beams employed for interference from complex wavefield reconstruction. The algorithm is based on non-linear filtering, and can be applied to standard DHM setups, with realistic recording conditions. We study the applicability of the technique under different experimental configurations, such as topographic images of microscopic specimens or speckle holograms.

Nonlinear measures of respiration: Respiratory irregularity and increased chaos of respiration in patients with panic disorder

Background. Respiratory irregularity has been previously reported in patients with panic disorder using time domain measures. However, the respiratory signal is not entirely linear and a few previous studies used approximate entropy (APEN), a measure of regularity of time series. We have been studying APEN and other nonlinear measures including a measure of chaos, the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of heart rate time series, in some detail. In this study, we used these measures of respiration to compare normal controls (n = 18) and patients with panic disorder (n = 22) in addition to the traditional time domain measures of respiratory rate and tidal volume. Methods: Respiratory signal was obtained by the Respitrace system using a thoracic and an abdominal belt, which was digitized at 500 Hz. Later, the time series were constructed at 4 Hz, as the highest frequency in this signal is limited to 0.5 Hz. We used 256 s of data (1,024 points) during supine and standing postures under normal breathing and controlled breathing at 12 breaths/min. Results: APEN was significantly higher in patients in standing posture during normal as well as controlled breathing (p = 0.002 and 0.02, respectively). LLE was also significantly higher in standing posture during normal breathing (p = 0.009). Similarly, the time domain measures of standard deviations and the coefficient of variation (COV) of tidal volume (TV) were significantly higher in the patient group (p = 0.02 and 0.004, respectively). The frequency of sighs was also higher in the patient group in standing posture (p = 0.02). In standing posture, LLE (p < 0.05) as well as APEN (p < 0.01) contributed significantly toward the separation of the two groups over and beyond the linear measure, i.e. the COV of TV. Conclusion: These findings support the previously described respiratory irregularity in patients with panic disorder and also illustrate the utility of nonlinear measures such as APEN and LLE as additional measures toward a better understanding of the abnormalities of respiratory physiology in similar patient populations as the correlation between LLE, APEN and some of the time domain measures only explained up to 50-60% of the variation. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Effect of screening of intermicellar interactions on the linear and nonlinear rheology of a viscoelastic gel

We report our studies of the linear and nonlinear rheology of aqueous solutions of the surfactant cetyl trimethylammonium tosylate (CTAT) with varying amounts of sodium chloride (NaCl). The CTAT concentration is fixed at 42 mM, and the salt concentration is varied between 0 and 120 mM. On increasing the salt (NaCl) concentration, we see three distinct regimes in the zero-shear viscosity and the high-frequency plateau modulus data. In regime 1, the zero-shear viscosity shows a weak increase with salt concentration due to enhanced micellar growth. The decrease in the zero-shear viscosities with salt concentration in regimes II and III can be explained in terms of intermicellar branching. The most intriguing feature of our data, however, is the anomalous behavior of the high-frequency plateau modulus in regime II (0.12 less than or equal to [NaCl]/[CTAT] less than or equal to 1.42). In this regime, the plateau modulus increases with an increase in NaCl concentration. This is highly interesting, since the correlation length of concentration fluctuations and hence the plateau modulus G(0) are not expected to change appreciably in the semidilute regime. We propose to explain the changes in regime II in terms of a possible unbinding of the organic counterions (tosylate) from the CTA(+) surfaces on the addition of NaCl. In the nonlinear flow curves of the samples with high salt content, significant deviations from the predictions of the Giesekus model for entangled micelles are observed.

Nonlinear measures of QT interval series: novel indices of cardiac repolarization lability: MEDqthr and LLEqthr

In this study, we investigated nonlinear measures of chaos of QT interval time series in 28 normal control subjects, 36 patients with panic disorder and 18 patients with major depression in supine and standing postures. We obtained the minimum embedding dimension (MED) and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of instantaneous heart rate (HR) and QT interval series. MED quantifies the system's complexity and LLE predictability. There was a significantly lower MED and a significantly increased LLE of QT interval time series in patients. Most importantly, nonlinear indices of QT/HR time series, MEDqthr (MED of QT/HR) and LLEqthr (LLE of QT/HR), were highly significantly different between controls and both patient groups in either posture. Results remained the same even after adjusting for age. The increased LLE of QT interval time, series in patients with anxiety and depression is in line with our previous findings of higher QTvi (QT variability index, a log ratio of QT variability corrected for mean QT squared divided by heart rate variability corrected for mean heart rate squared) in these patients, using linear techniques. Increased LLEqthr (LLE of QT/HR) may be a more sensitive tool to study cardiac repolarization and a valuable addition to the time domain measures such as QTvi. This is especially important in light of the finding that LLEqthr correlated poorly and nonsignificantly with QTvi. These findings suggest an increase in relative cardiac sympathetic activity and a decrease in certain aspects of cardiac vagal function in patients with anxiety as well as depression. The lack of correlation between QTvi and LLEqthr suggests that this nonlinear index is a valuable addition to the linear measures. These findings may also help to explain the higher incidence of cardiovascular mortality in patients with anxiety and depressive disorders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ultrasound-modulated optical tomography: recovery of amplitude of vibration in the insonified region from boundary measurement of light correlation

We address a certain inverse problem in ultrasound-modulated optical tomography: the recovery of the amplitude of vibration of scatterers [p(r)] in the ultrasound focal volume in a diffusive object from boundary measurement of the modulation depth (M) of the amplitude autocorrelation of light [phi(r, tau)] traversing through it. Since M is dependent on the stiffness of the material, this is the precursor to elasticity imaging. The propagation of phi(r, tau) is described by a diffusion equation from which we have derived a nonlinear perturbation equation connecting p(r) and refractive index modulation [Delta n(r)] in the region of interest to M measured on the boundary. The nonlinear perturbation equation and its approximate linear counterpart are solved for the recovery of p(r). The numerical results reveal regions of different stiffness, proving that the present method recovers p(r) with reasonable quantitative accuracy and spatial resolution. (C) 2011 Optical Society of America

Laser damage threshold studies on urea L-malic acid: A nonlinear optical crystal

A detailed study of surface laser damage performed on a nonlinear optical crystal, urea L-malic acid, using 7 ns laser pulses at 10 Hz repetition rate from a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser at wavelengths of 532 and 1064 nm is reported. The single shot and multiple shot surface laser damage threshold values are determined to be 26.64±0.19 and 20.60±0.36 GW cm−2 at 1064 nm and 18.44±0.31 and 7.52±0.22 GW cm−2 at 532 nm laser radiation, respectively. The laser damage anisotropy is consistent with the Vickers mechanical hardness measurement performed along three crystallographic directions. The Knoop polar plot also reflects the damage morphology. Our investigation reveals a direct correlation between the laser damage profile and hardness anisotropy. Thermal breakdown of the crystal is identified as the possible mechanism of laser induced surface damage.

Dynamical behavior in the nonlinear rheology of surfactant solutions

Several surfactant molecules self-assemble in solution to form long, flexible wormlike micelles which get entangled with each other, leading to viscoelastic gel phases. We discuss our recent work on the rheology of such a gel formed in the dilute aqueous solutions of a surfactant CTAT. In the linear rheology regime, the storage modulus G′(ω) and loss modulus G″(ω) have been measured over a wide frequency range. In the nonlinear regime, the shear stress σ shows a plateau as a function of the shear rate math above a certain cutoff shear rate mathc. Under controlled shear rate conditions in the plateau regime, the shear stress and the first normal stress difference show oscillatory time-dependence. The analysis of the measured time series of shear stress and normal stress has been done using several methods incorporating state space reconstruction by embedding of time delay vectors. The analysis shows the existence of a finite correlation dimension and a positive Lyapunov exponent, unambiguously implying that the dynamics of the observed mechanical instability can be described by that of a dynamical system with a strange attractor of dimension varying from 2.4 to 2.9.

Estimation of heavy rainfall during cyclonic storms from microwave observations using nonlinear approach over Indian Ocean

In this study, an effort has been made to study heavy rainfall events during cyclonic storms over Indian Ocean. This estimate is based on microwave observations from tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). Regional scattering index (SI) developed for Indian region based on measurements at 19-, 21- and 85-GHz brightness temperature and polarization corrected temperature (PCT) at 85 GHz have been utilized in this study. These PCT and SI are collocated against Precipitation Radar (PR) onboard TRMM to establish a relationship between rainfall rate, PCT and SI. The retrieval technique using both linear and nonlinear regressions has been developed utilizing SI, PCT and the combination of SI and PCT. The results have been compared with the observations from PR. It was found that a nonlinear algorithm using combination of SI and PCT is more accurate than linear algorithm or nonlinear algorithm using either SI or PCT. Statistical comparison with PR exhibits the correlation coefficients (CC) of 0.68, 0.66 and 0.70, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.78, 1.96 and 1.68 mm/h from the observations of SI, PCT and combination of SI and PCT respectively using linear regressions. When nonlinear regression is used, the CC of 0.73, 0.71, 0.79 and RMSE of 1.64, 1.95, 1.54 mm/h are observed from the observations of SI, PCT and combination of SI and PCT, respectively. The error statistics for high rain events (above 10 mm/h) shows the CC of 0.58, 0.59, 0.60 and RMSE of 5.07, 5.47, 5.03 mm/h from the observations of SI, PCT and combination of SI and PCT, respectively, using linear regression, and on the other hand, use of nonlinear regression yields the CC of 0.66, 0.64, 0.71 and RMSE of 4.68, 5.78 and 4.02 mm/h from the observations of SI, PCT and combined SI and PCT, respectively.