Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

Planning “Discrete” Movements Using a Continuous System: Insights from a Dynamic Field Theory of Movement Preparation

The timed-initiation paradigm developed by Ghez and colleagues (1997) has revealed two modes of motor planning: continuous and discrete. Continuous responding occurs when targets are separated by less than 60° of spatial angle, and discrete responding occurs when targets are separated by greater than 60°. Although these two modes are thought to reflect the operation of separable strategic planning systems, a new theory of movement preparation, the Dynamic Field Theory, suggests that two modes emerge flexibly from the same system. Experiment 1 replicated continuous and discrete performance using a task modified to allow for a critical test of the single system view. In Experiment 2, participants were allowed to correct their movements following movement initiation (the standard task does not allow corrections). Results showed continuous planning performance at large and small target separations. These results are consistent with the proposal that the two modes reflect the time-dependent “preshaping” of a single planning system.

The sacred theory of the earth: containing an account of its original creation, and of all the general changes, which it hath undergone, or is to undergo, until the consummation of all things. In two volumes. The first books concerning the deluge, and Paradise: the two last concerning the general conflagration, and the new heavens and new earth. With a review of the theory, especially in reference to Scripture.

Mode of access: Internet.

A referenciapont-elmélet mint a hiányos információjú szerződések gondolatkörének új irányzata (The concept of ‘reference points’ as a new direction in the ‘incomplete contract’ theory)

A cikk az alig több mint öt éve született referenciapont-elméletet mutatja be, ismerteti és értékeli a témában eddig megjelent cikkeket és a nagyobb horderejű munkaanyagokat. A referenciapont-elmélet arra a kérdésre keresi a választ, hogy mi a vállalat optimális mérete, és mikor érdemesebb a termelési kooperációt nem a vállalaton belül, a különböző egységek koordinációjával megoldani, hanem külső vállalatok segítségével, a piacon keresztül megvalósítani. A referenciapont-elmélet az azonos kérdések megválaszolására törekvő hiányos szerződések elméletét ért kritika hatására született meg, és saját, újonnan megfogalmazott feltételrendszerét számos ponton ötvözi a hiányos szerződések hipotéziseivel, ugyanakkor bizonyításai során felhasználja a standard közgazdasági irányzat több eszközét is. A cikk a friss eredmények bemutatása mellett megkísérli előre becsülni a referenciapont-elmélet várható jövőbeli fejlődési irányait is. ____ The concept of reference points was established slightly more than five years ago, and it deals with the same boundary of firm related questions as the incomplete contract theory. The present review shows the most important journals and research papers in this field. Reference point theory arose out of a criticism of some of the elements of incomplete contract theory. Reference point theory combines newly- formulated hypotheses with some of the assumptions of incomplete contracts. The theory also uses some of the proving tools of standard economics. The author’s study not only shows the main results of the reference point theory, but it also tries to predict some possible future developments within the theory.

Outlines of psychology, with special reference to the theory of education. A text-book for colleges.

References at end of chapters.

Retinal and lenticular ultrastructure in the aestivating salamanderfish, Lepidogalaxias salamandroides (Galaxiidae, Teleostei) with special reference to a new type of photoreceptor mosaic

The salamanderfish, Lepidogalaxias salamandroides (Galaxiidae, Teleostei) is endemic to southwestern Australia and inhabits shallow, freshwater pools which evaporate during the hot summer months. Burrowing into the substrate in response to falling water levels allows these fish to aestivate for extended periods of time while encapsulated in a mucous cocoon even when the pools contain no water. Only a few minutes after a major rainfall, these fish emerge into relatively clear water which subsequently becomes laden with tannin, turning the water black and reducing the pH to approximately 4.3. As part of a large study of the visual adaptations of this unique species, the retinal and lenticular morphology of the aestivating salamanderfish is examined at the level of the light and electron microscopes. The inner retina is highly vascularised by a complex system of vitreal blood vessels, while the outer retina receives a blood supply by diffusion from a choriocapillaris. This increased retinal blood supply may be an adaptation for reducing the oxygen tension during critical periods of aestivation. Large numbers of Muller cells traverse the thickness of the retina from the inner to the outer limiting membranes. The ganglion cells are arranged in two ill-defined layers, separated from a thick inner nuclear layer containing two layers of horizontal cells by a soma-free inner plexiform layer. The photoreceptors can be divided into three types typical of many early actinopterygian representatives; equal double cones, small single cones and large rods (2:1:1). These photoreceptors are arranged into a unique regular square mosaic comprising a large rod bordered by four equal double cones with a small single cone located at the corner of each repeating unit. The double cones may optimise perception of mobile prey which it tracks by flexion of its head and neck and the large rods may increase sensitivity in the dark tannin-rich waters in which it lives. Each single cone also possesses a dense collection of polysomes and glycogen (a paraboloid) beneath its ellipsoid, the first such finding in teleosts. The retinal pigment epithelium possesses melanosomes, pha,oocytes and a large number of mitochondria. The anatomy of the retina and the photoreceptor mosaic is discussed in relation to the primitive phylogeny of this species and its unique life history.

P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

Concepts and Reference. Defending a Dual Theory of Natural Kind Concepts

In this thesis I argue that the psychological study of concepts and categorisation, and the philosophical study of reference are deeply intertwined. I propose that semantic intuitions are a variety of categorisation judgements, determined by concepts, and that because of this, concepts determine reference. I defend a dual theory of natural kind concepts, according to which natural kind concepts have distinct semantic cores and non-semantic identification procedures. Drawing on psychological essentialism, I suggest that the cores consist of externalistic placeholder essence beliefs. The identification procedures, in turn, consist of prototypes, sets of exemplars, or possibly also theory-structured beliefs. I argue that the dual theory is motivated both by experimental data and theoretical considerations. The thesis consists of three interrelated articles. Article I examines philosophical causal and description theories of natural kind term reference, and argues that they involve, or need to involve, certain psychological elements. I propose a unified theory of natural kind term reference, built on the psychology of concepts. Article II presents two semantic adaptations of psychological essentialism, one of which is a strict externalistic Kripkean-Putnamian theory, while the other is a hybrid account, according to which natural kind terms are ambiguous between internalistic and externalistic senses. We present two experiments, the results of which support the strict externalistic theory. Article III examines Fodor’s influential atomistic theory of concepts, according to which no psychological capacities associated with concepts constitute them, or are necessary for reference. I argue, contra Fodor, that the psychological mechanisms are necessary for reference.

Role of references in international industrial marketing : a theory-building case study about supplier’s processes of utilizing references

Scientific studies regarding specifically references do not seem to exist. However, the utilization of references is an important practice for many companies involved in industrial marketing. The purpose of the study is to increase the understanding about the utilization of references in international industrial marketing in order to contribute to the development of a theory of reference behavior. Specifically, the modes of reference usage in industry, the factors affecting a supplier's reference behavior, and the question how references are actually utilized, are explored in the study. Due to the explorative nature of the study, a research design was followed where theory and empirical studies alternated. An Exploratory Framework was developed to guide a pilot case study that resulted in Framework 1. Results of the pilot study guided an expanded literature review that was used to develop first a Structural Framework and a Process Framework which were combined in Framework 2. Then, the second empirical phase of the case study was conducted in the same (pilot) case company. In this phase, Decision Systems Analysis (DSA) was used as the analysis method. The DSA procedure consists of three interviewing waves: initial interviews, reinterviews, and validating interviews. Four reference decision processes were identified, described and analyzed in the form of flowchart descriptions. The flowchart descriptions were used to explore new constructs and to develop new propositions to develop Framework 2 further. The quality of the study was ascertained by many actions in both empirical parts of the study. The construct validity of the study was ascertained by using multiple sources of evidence and by asking the key informant to review the pilot case report. The DSA method itself includes procedures assuring validity. Because of the choice to conduct a single case study, external validity was not even pursued. High reliability was pursued through detailed documentation and thorough reporting of evidence. It was concluded that the core of the concept of reference is a customer relationship regardless of the concrete forms a reference might take in its utilization. Depending on various contingencies, references might have various tasks inside the four roles of increasing 1) efficiency of sales and sales management, 2) efficiency of the business, 3) effectiveness of marketing activities, and 4) effectiveness in establishing, maintaining and enhancing customer relationships. Thus, references have not only external but internal tasks as well. A supplier's reference behavior might be affected by many hierarchical conditions. Additionally, the empirical study showed that the supplier can utilize its references as a continuous, all pervasive decision making process through various practices. The process includes both individual and unstructured decision making subprocesses. The proposed concept of reference can be used to guide a reference policy recommendable for companies for which the utilization of references is important. The significance of the study is threefold: proposing the concept of reference, developing a framework of a supplier's reference behavior and its short term process of utilizing references, and conceptual structuring of an unstructured and in industrial marketing important phenomenon to four roles.

Measuring the benefits of employer investments in training : towards a new economic theory of training. 'Medir los beneficios de las inversiones del empresario en formación : hacia una nueva teoría económica de la formación'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

Instructional Theory and Technology for the New Paradigm of Education.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

Identifying and understanding factors influencing the uptake of new technologies on dairy farms in SW England using the theory of reasoned action

Whilst much is known of new technology adopters, little research has addressed the role of their attitudes in adoption decisions; particularly, for technologies with evident economic potential that have not been taken up by farmers. This paper presents recent research that has used a new approach which examines the role that adopters' attitudes play in identifying the drivers of and barriers to adoption. The study was concerned with technologies for livestock farming systems in SW England, specifically oestrus detection, nitrogen supply management, and, inclusion of white clover. The adoption behaviour is analysed using the social-psychology theory of reasoned action to identify factors that affect the adoption of technologies, which are confirmed using principal components analysis. The results presented here relate to the specific adoption behaviour regarding the Milk Development Council's recommended observation times for heat detection. The factors that affect the adoption of this technology are: cost effectiveness, improved detection and conception rates as the main drivers, whilst the threat to demean the personal knowledge and skills of a farmer in 'knowing' their cows is a barrier. This research shows clearly that promotion of a technology and transfer of knowledge for a farming system need to take account of the beliefs and attitudes of potential adopters. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chromosome banding in three species of Hypsiboas (Hylidae, Hylinae), with special reference to a new case of B-chromosome in anuran frogs and to the reduction of the diploid number of 2n=24 to 2n=22 in the genus

The chromosomes of hylids Hypsiboas albopunctatus, H. raniceps, and H. crepitans from Brazil were analyzed with standard and differential staining techniques. The former species presented 2n = 22 and 2n = 23 karyotypes, the odd diploid number is due to the presence of an extra element interpreted as B chromosome. Although morphologically very similar to the small-sized chromosomes of the A complement, the B was promptly recognized, even under standard staining, on the basis of some characteristics that are usually attributed to this particular class of chromosomes. The two other species have 2n = 24, which is the chromosome number usually found in the species of Hypsiboas karyotyped so far. This means that 2n = 22 is a deviant diploid number, resulted from a structural rearrangement, altering the chromosome number of 2n = 24 to 2n = 22. Based on new chromosome data, some possibilities were evaluated for the origin of B chromosome in Hypsiboas albopunctatus, as well as the karyotypic evolution in the genus, leading to the reduction in the diploid number of 2n = 24 to 2n = 22.