LEARNING FROM NEAR MISSES IN MEDICATION ERRORS: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

Medical errors originating in health care facilities are a significant source of preventable morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Voluntary error report systems that collect information on the causes and contributing factors of medi- cal errors regardless of the resulting harm may be useful for developing effective harm prevention strategies. Some patient safety experts question the utility of data from errors that did not lead to harm to the patient, also called near misses. A near miss (a.k.a. close call) is an unplanned event that did not result in injury to the patient. Only a fortunate break in the chain of events prevented injury. We use data from a large voluntary reporting system of 836,174 medication errors from 1999 to 2005 to provide evidence that the causes and contributing factors of errors that result in harm are similar to the causes and contributing factors of near misses. We develop Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating the log odds of selecting a given cause (or contributing factor) of error given harm has occurred and the log odds of selecting the same cause given that harm did not occur. The posterior distribution of the correlation between these two vectors of log-odds is used as a measure of the evidence supporting the use of data from near misses and their causes and contributing factors to prevent medical errors. In addition, we identify the causes and contributing factors that have the highest or lowest log-odds ratio of harm versus no harm. These causes and contributing factors should also be a focus in the design of prevention strategies. This paper provides important evidence on the utility of data from near misses, which constitute the vast majority of errors in our data.

Accident and near accident causation: the contribution of automobile design characteristics. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

The Burden Of Eclampsia: Results From A Multicenter Study On Surveillance Of Severe Maternal Morbidity In Brazil.

Maternal mortality (MM) is a core indicator of disparities in women's rights. The study of Near Miss cases is strategic to identifying the breakdowns in obstetrical care. In absolute numbers, both MM and occurrence of eclampsia are rare events. We aim to assess the obstetric care indicators and main predictors for severe maternal outcome from eclampsia (SMO: maternal death plus maternal near miss). Secondary analysis of a multicenter, cross-sectional study, including 27 centers from all geographic regions of Brazil, from 2009 to 2010. 426 cases of eclampsia were identified and classified according to the outcomes: SMO and non-SMO. We classified facilities as coming from low- and high-income regions and calculated the WHO's obstetric health indicators. SPSS and Stata softwares were used to calculate the prevalence ratios (PR) and respective 95% confidence interval (CI) to assess maternal characteristics, clinical and obstetrical history, and access to health services as predictors for SMO, subsequently correlating them with the corresponding perinatal outcomes, also applying multiple regression analysis (adjusted for cluster effect). Prevalence of and mortality indexes for eclampsia in higher and lower income regions were 0.2%/0.8% and 8.1%/22%, respectively. Difficulties in access to health care showed that ICU admission (adjPR 3.61; 95% CI 1.77-7.35) and inadequate monitoring (adjPR 2.31; 95% CI 1.48-3.59) were associated with SMO. Morbidity and mortality associated with eclampsia were high in Brazil, especially in lower income regions. Promoting quality maternal health care and improving the availability of obstetric emergency care are essential actions to relieve the burden of eclampsia.

Delays In Receiving Obstetric Care And Poor Maternal Outcomes: Results From A National Multicentre Cross-sectional Study.

The vast majority of maternal deaths in low-and middle-income countries are preventable. Delay in obtaining access to appropriate health care is a fairly common problem which can be improved. The objective of this study was to explore the association between delay in providing obstetric health care and severe maternal morbidity/death. This was a multicentre cross-sectional study, involving 27 referral obstetric facilities in all Brazilian regions between 2009 and 2010. All women admitted to the hospital with a pregnancy-related cause were screened, searching for potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTC), maternal death (MD) and maternal near-miss (MNM) cases, according to the WHO criteria. Data on delays were collected by medical chart review and interview with the medical staff. The prevalence of the three different types of delays was estimated according to the level of care and outcome of the complication. For factors associated with any delay, the PR and 95%CI controlled for cluster design were estimated. A total of 82,144 live births were screened, with 9,555 PLTC, MNM or MD cases prospectively identified. Overall, any type of delay was observed in 53.8% of cases; delay related to user factors was observed in 10.2%, 34.6% of delays were related to health service accessibility and 25.7% were related to quality of medical care. The occurrence of any delay was associated with increasing severity of maternal outcome: 52% in PLTC, 68.4% in MNM and 84.1% in MD. Although this was not a population-based study and the results could not be generalized, there was a very clear and significant association between frequency of delay and severity of outcome, suggesting that timely and proper management are related to survival.

Mortes por doenças infecciosas em mulheres: ocorrências no ciclo gravídico-puerperal

OBJETIVO: Descrever os óbitos por doenças infecciosas como causa básica ou múltipla, caracterizando os casos de doença infecciosa preexistente ou desenvolvida na gravidez, aqueles que são mortes maternas por causas obstétricas indiretas e os óbitos por Aids ou outras doenças infecciosas, ocorridos no ciclo gravídico puerperal, havendo dúvidas na classificação. MÉTODOS: Adotou-se a metodologia RAMOS (partindo-se da declaração de óbito -DO- original, dados reais são resgatados por entrevista domiciliar, consultas a prontuários hospitalares e laudos de autopsia; elaborando-se uma nova DO, com as reais causas de morte). População foi constituída pelos óbitos femininos de 10 a 49 anos, de residentes nas capitais brasileiras, do 1º semestre de 2002. As causas foram analisadas em básicas e múltiplas. RESULTADOS: Dos 7.332 óbitos, 917 apresentaram uma doença infecciosa como causa básica (Aids e tuberculose, principalmente). Em 37 casos, a falecida estava no ciclo gravídico puerperal ampliado (englobando, inclusive, mortes ocorridas de 43 dias até um ano pós-parto); 10 não foram classificadas como obstétricas indiretas permanecendo como infecciosas e 14 eram obstétricas indiretas. Quanto às causas múltiplas, para 791 mortes, cujas causas básicas não eram maternas nem infecciosas, houve 1.016 menções de doenças infecciosas (média de 1,28 menção/óbito). CONCLUSÃO: Como o número de mortes maternas é pequeno, recomenda-se, que investigações dos casos graves de complicações da gravidez, parto e puerpério que não faleceram (near-miss) sejam feitas, pois, sendo mais numerosos, representam importante subsídio para estudos da mortalidade materna.

Da condição da génese do erro em enfermagem à segurança do cliente em serviços de urgência

Mestrado em Intervenção Sócio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde

Role of surgery in the management of brain arteriovenous malformations: prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Management of brain arteriovenous malformation (bAVM) is controversial. We have analyzed the largest surgical bAVM cohort for outcome. METHODS: Both operated and nonoperated cases were included for analysis. A total of 779 patients with bAVMs were consecutively enrolled between 1989 and 2014. Initial management recommendations were recorded before commencement of treatment. Surgical outcome was prospectively recorded and outcomes assigned at the last follow-up visit using modified Rankin Scale. First, a sensitivity analyses was performed to select a subset of the entire cohort for which the results of surgery could be generalized. Second, from this subset, variables were analyzed for risk of deficit or near miss (intraoperative hemorrhage requiring blood transfusion of ≥2.5 L, hemorrhage in resection bed requiring reoperation, and hemorrhage associated with either digital subtraction angiography or embolization). RESULTS: A total of 7.7% of patients with Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVM had an adverse outcome from surgery leading to a modified Rankin Scale >1. Sensitivity analyses that demonstrated outcome results were not subject to selection bias for Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVMs. Risk factors for adverse outcomes from surgery for these bAVMs include size, presence of deep venous drainage, and eloquent location. Preoperative embolization did not affect the risk of perioperative hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the ruptured and unruptured low and middle-grade bAVMs (Spetzler-Ponce A and B) can be surgically treated with a low risk of permanent morbidity and a high likelihood of preventing future hemorrhage. Our results do not apply to Spetzler-Ponce C bAVMs.

Role of surgery in the management of brain arteriovenous malformations: prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Management of brain arteriovenous malformation (bAVM) is controversial. We have analyzed the largest surgical bAVM cohort for outcome. METHODS: Both operated and nonoperated cases were included for analysis. A total of 779 patients with bAVMs were consecutively enrolled between 1989 and 2014. Initial management recommendations were recorded before commencement of treatment. Surgical outcome was prospectively recorded and outcomes assigned at the last follow-up visit using modified Rankin Scale. First, a sensitivity analyses was performed to select a subset of the entire cohort for which the results of surgery could be generalized. Second, from this subset, variables were analyzed for risk of deficit or near miss (intraoperative hemorrhage requiring blood transfusion of ≥2.5 L, hemorrhage in resection bed requiring reoperation, and hemorrhage associated with either digital subtraction angiography or embolization). RESULTS: A total of 7.7% of patients with Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVM had an adverse outcome from surgery leading to a modified Rankin Scale >1. Sensitivity analyses that demonstrated outcome results were not subject to selection bias for Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVMs. Risk factors for adverse outcomes from surgery for these bAVMs include size, presence of deep venous drainage, and eloquent location. Preoperative embolization did not affect the risk of perioperative hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the ruptured and unruptured low and middle-grade bAVMs (Spetzler-Ponce A and B) can be surgically treated with a low risk of permanent morbidity and a high likelihood of preventing future hemorrhage. Our results do not apply to Spetzler-Ponce C bAVMs.

Työturvallisuusriskien tunnistaminen, arviointi ja hallinta pelastuslaitoksissa

Firefighters work contains numerous hazards. In rescue missions there are always hazards, which are unavoidable. Risk assessments and near-miss –situation investigation increases firefighters risk awareness and decreases accidents. This thesis concerns occupational risk management in fire department. This thesis introduces methods for identifying occupational hazards and risk assessment. In this thesis is introduced risk assessment method developed whit fire departments. This thesis also concerns a model of fire departments safety management system. In addition thesis contains a short introduction of how occupational health care cold be used and what kind of information system would support fire departments daily occupational safety activities.

Indicent reporting in shipping. Experiences and best practices for the Baltic Sea

Incident and near miss reporting is one of the proactive tools of safety management. By analyzing incidents and near misses and by corrective actions, severe accidents can potentially be avoided. Near miss and incident reporting is widely used in many riskprone industries such as aviation or chemical industry. In shipping incident and near miss reporting is required by the mandatory safety management system International Safety Management Code (ISM Code). However, in several studies the conclusion has been that incidents are reported poorly in the shipping industry. The aim of this report is to highlight the best practices for incident reporting in shipping and to support the shipping industry in the better utilization of incident reporting information. The study consists of three parts: 1) voluntary, shared reporting systems in shipping (international experiences), 2) interview study at four shipping companies in Sweden and in Finland (best practices), 3) expert workshop on incident reporting (problems and solutions). Preconditions for a functional reporting system are an existing no blame culture, commitment of the top management, feedback, good communication, training and an easy-to-use system. Although preconditions are met, problems can still appear, for example due to psychological, interpersonal or nationality-related reasons. In order to keep the reporting system functioning, the shipping company must be committed to maintain and develop the system and to tackle the problems. The whole reporting process from compiling, handling and analyzing a report, creating corrective actions and implementing them has to be handled properly in order to gain benefits from the reporting system. In addition to avoiding accidents, the functional reporting system can also offer other benefits by increasing safety awareness, by improving the overall safety and working conditions onboard, by enhancing team work and communication onboard and between ships and the land-based organization of shipping companies. Voluntary shared reporting systems are supported in the shipping industry in principle, but their development in the Baltic Sea is still in its infancy and the potential benefits of sharing the reports have not been realized. On the basis of this study we recommend that a common reporting system be developed for the Baltic Sea area which all the ships operating in the area could use regardless of their flag. Such a wider system could prevent some of the problems related to the current national systems. There would be more incident cases available in the database and this would support anonymity and thus encourage shipping companies to report to a shared database more frequently. A shared reporting system would contribute to the sharing of experiences and to the wider use of incident information in the shipping industry.

A morbidade materna grave na qualificação da assistência: utopia ou necessidade?

No Brasil, onde 90% dos partos ocorrem em hospitais, 67,1% das mortes são devidas a causas obstétricas diretas, predominando transtornos hipertensivos, enquanto as causas obstétricas indiretas são responsáveis por um quarto do total. Como a morte materna é um evento incomum, estimado em 76/100.000, o estudo da morbidade materna grave, seguindo a tendência da literatura, pode contribuir para qualificar o cuidado obstétrico. A morbidade materna é um continuum que termina na morte, podendo-se reconhecer um grupo de extrema gravidade, conhecido como "near miss". Embora os conceitos sejam claros, não há consenso na literatura quanto aos critérios definidores dos casos de morbidade grave ou mesmo morbidade extremamente grave ou near miss. Sua prevalência pode variar, de 0,80-8,23%, a depender dos critérios de definição utilizados e da assistência à saúde oferecida na região. A caracterização da morbidade grave e, particularmente, do near miss, permite o monitoramento do processo de atenção obstétrica e pode qualificar o tratamento das urgências e emergências maternas, interrompendo o processo que pode levar ao óbito.

Etude qualitative sur les causes du premier retard et leur impact sur la morbidité des urgences obstétricales. Le cas des échappées belles du District de Diema (Mali).

L’accouchement et ses conséquences demeurent une des principales causes d’incapacité et de décès pour les femmes dans les pays en développement et comprendre l’utilisation tardive des soins obstétricaux d’urgence au moment d’une complication obstétricale constitue un véritable défi en santé publique. La présente étude qualitative relate l’expérience d’accouchement difficile au Mali, en milieu rural. Dans un contexte de pluralité de systèmes de soins, l’objet de cette étude consiste à déterminer les raisons de l’arrivée tardive des femmes au centre de santé de 1ier ligne, à saisir la compréhension qu’elles ont de l’utilisation des services sanitaires, enfin à reconstruire les processus de prise de décisions de recourir aux soins modernes. Cette étude s’inscrit dans une démarche de type ethnographique. Des entretiens semi dirigés et l’observation des interactions entre les femmes et les professionnels de santé ont constitué le corpus de données. Nous retenons qu’une série de facteurs entrent en jeu pour comprendre le problème de l’utilisation tardive des soins obstétricaux d’urgence. Des contraintes exogènes liées à la distance et l’immédiateté de l’urgence obstétricale c'est-à-dire la mobilisation des ressources et des moyens de transport, accompagnées de contraintes endogènes telles que la subordination des femmes au consentement familial, la perception de la qualité des soins et de la compétence des soignants, influencent systématiquement le choix de recourir aux soins modernes. Le phénomène de gestion collective de la complication obstétricale s’inscrit dans un contexte d’intéractions complexes où l’opinion des femmes est totalement minimisée.

Factores de riesgo para morbilidad materna extrema en gestantes

Introducción: La morbilidad materna extrema es un término usado para definir cualquier condición obstétrica severa que amenaza la vida y requiere una intervención médica urgente con el fin de prevenir la probable muerte materna. Con el presente estudio se pretendió evaluar los factores de riesgo para morbilidad materna extrema en las gestantes del Hospital Universitario Mayor. Metodología Se realizó un estudio de casos y controles, comparando pacientes con MME y sin MME en una relación de 1:1. Se realizó un muestreo aleatorio simple teniendo en cuenta 95% de la población apareadas por diagnóstico de ingreso. Resultados Se incluyeron un total de 110 pacientes (55 en cada grupo). Ambas poblaciones fueron comprables. Ser de estrato socioeconómico bajo (p 0,000), haber tenido 2 o menos partos (p 0,000), ser tipo de sangre negativo (p0.000) realizar entre 0-3 controles prenatales (p 0,000), tener antecedente de preeclampsia (p 0,000), hipotiroidismo (p 0,000), o trastorno bipolar (p 0,000), son factores de riesgo significativos para presentar MME. Entre los factores protectores están tener más de tres partos OR 0,60 (IC95%: 0,17-0,82, p=0,00) y 7 o más controles prenatales OR 0,23 (IC95%: 0,09-0,55, p=0,000). Resultados concordantes con la literatura Discusión: Es importante dar a conocer los resultados del presente estudio para promover las campañas de prevención primaria, secundaria y terciaria con el fin de evitar las altas complicaciones que se pueden presentar en las mujeres en edad fértil de nuestra población.

Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

'They would never receive you without a husband' : Paradoxical barriers to antenatal care scale-up in Rwanda

OBJECTIVE: to explore perspectives and experiences of antenatal care and partner involvement among women who nearly died during pregnancy ('near-miss'). DESIGN: a study guided by naturalistic inquiry was conducted, and included extended in-community participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. Qualitative data were collected between March 2013 and April 2014 in Kigali, Rwanda. FINDINGS: all informants were aware of the recommendations of male involvement for HIV-testing at the first antenatal care visit. However, this recommendation was seen as a clear link in the chain of delays and led to severe consequences, especially for women without engaged partners. The overall quality of antenatal services was experienced as suboptimal, potentially missing the opportunity to provide preventive measures and essential health education intended for both parents. This seemed to contribute to women's disincentive to complete all four recommended visits and men's interest in attending to ensure their partners' reception of care. However, the participants experienced a restriction of men's access during subsequent antenatal visits, which made men feel denied to their increased involvement during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: 'near-miss' women and their partners face paradoxical barriers to actualise the recommended antenatal care visits. The well-intended initiative of male partner involvement counterproductively causes delays or excludes women whereas supportive men are turned away from further health consultations. Currently, the suboptimal quality of antenatal care misses the opportunity to provide health education for the expectant couple or to identify and address early signs of complications IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: these findings suggest a need for increased flexibility in the antenatal care recommendations to encourage women to attend care with or without their partner, and to create open health communication about women's and men's real needs within the context of their social situations. Supportive partners should not be denied involvement at any stage of pregnancy, but should be received only upon consent of the expectant mother.