Perturbing event logs to identify cost reduction opportunities: a genetic algorithm-based approach

Organisations are constantly seeking new ways to improve operational efficiencies. This research study investigates a novel way to identify potential efficiency gains in business operations by observing how they are carried out in the past and then exploring better ways of executing them by taking into account trade-offs between time, cost and resource utilisation. This paper demonstrates how they can be incorporated in the assessment of alternative process execution scenarios by making use of a cost environment. A genetic algorithm-based approach is proposed to explore and assess alternative process execution scenarios, where the objective function is represented by a comprehensive cost structure that captures different process dimensions. Experiments conducted with different variants of the genetic algorithm evaluate the approach's feasibility. The findings demonstrate that a genetic algorithm-based approach is able to make use of cost reduction as a way to identify improved execution scenarios in terms of reduced case durations and increased resource utilisation. The ultimate aim is to utilise cost-related insights gained from such improved scenarios to put forward recommendations for reducing process-related cost within organisations.

Event interval analysis: Why do processes take time?

Through the application of process mining, valuable evidence-based insights can be obtained about business processes in organisations. As a result the field has seen an increased uptake in recent years as evidenced by success stories and increased tool support. However, despite this impact, current performance analysis capabilities remain somewhat limited in the context of information-poor event logs. For example, natural daily and weekly patterns are not considered. In this paper a new framework for analysing event logs is defined which is based on the concept of event gap. The framework allows for a systematic approach to sophisticated performance-related analysis of event logs containing varying degrees of information. The paper formalises a range of event gap types and then presents an implementation as well as an evaluation of the proposed approach.

Change visualisation: Analysing the resource and timing differences between two event logs

With organisations facing significant challenges to remain competitive, Business Process Improvement (BPI) initiatives are often conducted to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their business processes, focussing on time, cost, and quality improvements. Event logs which contain a detailed record of business operations over a certain time period, recorded by an organisation's information systems, are the first step towards initiating evidence-based BPI activities. Given an (original) event log as a starting point, an approach to explore better ways to execute a business process was developed, resulting in an improved (perturbed) event log. Identifying the differences between the original event log and the perturbed event log can provide valuable insights, helping organisations to improve their processes. However, there is a lack of automated techniques to detect the differences between two event logs. Therefore, this research aims to develop visualisation techniques to provide targeted analysis of resource reallocation and activity rescheduling. The differences between two event logs are first identified. The changes between the two event logs are conceptualised and realised with a number of visualisations. With the proposed visualisations, analysts will then be able to identify the changes related to resource and time, resulting in a more efficient business process. Ultimately, analysts can make use of this comparative information to initiate evidence-based BPI activities.

Minimizing overprocessing waste in business processes via predictive activity ordering

Overprocessing waste occurs in a business process when effort is spent in a way that does not add value to the customer nor to the business. Previous studies have identied a recurrent overprocessing pattern in business processes with so-called "knockout checks", meaning activities that classify a case into "accepted" or "rejected", such that if the case is accepted it proceeds forward, while if rejected, it is cancelled and all work performed in the case is considered unnecessary. Thus, when a knockout check rejects a case, the effort spent in other (previous) checks becomes overprocessing waste. Traditional process redesign methods propose to order knockout checks according to their mean effort and rejection rate. This paper presents a more fine-grained approach where knockout checks are ordered at runtime based on predictive machine learning models. Experiments on two real-life processes show that this predictive approach outperforms traditional methods while incurring minimal runtime overhead.

Detecting drift from event streams of unpredictable business processes

Existing business process drift detection methods do not work with event streams. As such, they are designed to detect inter-trace drifts only, i.e. drifts that occur between complete process executions (traces), as recorded in event logs. However, process drift may also occur during the execution of a process, and may impact ongoing executions. Existing methods either do not detect such intra-trace drifts, or detect them with a long delay. Moreover, they do not perform well with unpredictable processes, i.e. processes whose logs exhibit a high number of distinct executions to the total number of executions. We address these two issues by proposing a fully automated and scalable method for online detection of process drift from event streams. We perform statistical tests over distributions of behavioral relations between events, as observed in two adjacent windows of adaptive size, sliding along with the stream. An extensive evaluation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that our method is fast and accurate in the detection of typical change patterns, and performs significantly better than the state of the art.

Contratualização na Administração Pública: o caso da descentralização de competências educacionais para os Municípios

A presente investigação procurou descrever, de forma exaustiva, o processo de previsão, negociação, implementação e avaliação do Contrato de Execução celebrado entre a Câmara Municipal de Sintra e o Ministério da Educação em 2009. Este contrato corresponde a um instrumento previsto na regulamentação do quadro de transferências de competências para os municípios em matéria de educação, de acordo com o regime previsto no Decreto-Lei n.º 144/2008, de 28 de julho. Definida a problemática e os objetivos, a investigação centrou-se num estudo de caso no qual foi feita a descrição e interpretação do processo e das ações desenvolvidas pelos intervenientes no período compreendido entre 2008 e 2011. Recorreu-se à confrontação dos dados obtidos através da análise das fontes documentais e do recurso às entrevistas realizadas aos responsáveis pelo Pelouro da Educação e diretores dos Agrupamentos de Escolas, à luz da revisão da literatura e do contributo de diferentes trabalhos de investigadores nesta matéria. A investigação permitiu concluir que o processo de contratualização foi algo complexo face à realidade deste Município e que o normativo apresenta várias lacunas no que diz respeito à contratualização da referida transferência de competências, designadamente porque procura generalizar algo que não é, de todo, generalizável – o campo da educação face à complexidade dos territórios educativos em causa e aos dos intervenientes envolvidos no mesmo.

A eficácia dos contratos-programa no setor público da saúde na região Norte de Portugal

Em Portugal o sistema de saúde assume uma importante função no desenvolvimento económico e social, na medida em que os serviços prestados pelo mesmo influenciam não só o bem-estar social como também a produtividade. O processo de contratualização alia-se ao setor público da saúde através do contrato-programa, o qual pretende estabelecer uma estratégia a seguir. O presente trabalho pretende verificar se o setor público da saúde respeita os princípios de economia, eficiência e eficácia, de um modo geral, pretende-se perceber se os contratos-programa são cumpridos na sua totalidade. Para tal procedeu-se à recolha da informação descrita nos relatórios de gestão dos quinze Hospitais que pertencem à Administração Regional de Saúde do Norte. A incerteza relacionada com os contratos-programa, a não existência de um modelo linear para a divulgação pública dos resultados no âmbito do contrato-programa, e ainda o facto de a totalidade das entidades não ser obrigada a emitir essa publicação, conduz à possibilidade de que não estejam a ser cumpridos os princípios da economia, eficácia e eficiência.

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Prédiction de l'attrition en date de renouvellement en assurance automobile avec processus gaussiens

Le domaine de l’assurance automobile fonctionne par cycles présentant des phases de profitabilité et d’autres de non-profitabilité. Dans les phases de non-profitabilité, les compagnies d’assurance ont généralement le réflexe d’augmenter le coût des primes afin de tenter de réduire les pertes. Par contre, de très grandes augmentations peuvent avoir pour effet de massivement faire fuir la clientèle vers les compétiteurs. Un trop haut taux d’attrition pourrait avoir un effet négatif sur la profitabilité à long terme de la compagnie. Une bonne gestion des augmentations de taux se révèle donc primordiale pour une compagnie d’assurance. Ce mémoire a pour but de construire un outil de simulation de l’allure du porte- feuille d’assurance détenu par un assureur en fonction du changement de taux proposé à chacun des assurés. Une procédure utilisant des régressions à l’aide de processus gaus- siens univariés est développée. Cette procédure offre une performance supérieure à la régression logistique, le modèle généralement utilisé pour effectuer ce genre de tâche.

Papel das lideranças intermédias no processo de mudança organizacional : o caso das organizações de saúde em Portugal

A Gestão, como arte e experiência, tem sido infelizmente pouco solicitada para participar activamente no crucial e urgente processo de regeneração e reversão do Sistema Nacional de Saúde em Portugal. Perante a prevalência notória da perspectiva macroeconómica da economia da saúde, a gestão tem-se remetido quase ao serviço mínimo de repositório e subserviente cumpridor da norma emanada dos diversos e diversificados poderes da saúde, nomeadamente os político e burocrático. Sem querer com isto pretender ter encontrado a panaceia para a intervenção no processo, julga-se que sem um forte contributo da gestão jamais se atingirá o objectivo pretendido de flexão no andamento notoriamente negativo dos últimos anos. E isso passa por dois aspectos cruciais inerentes às organizações de saúde: acreditar verdadeiramente nas competências detidas pelas suas lideranças intermédias e apostar na respectiva delegação de poder e decisão. A contrapartida para isso será um sério, genuíno, forte, diferenciado e negociado processo de contratualização interna e avaliação de desempenho em excelência das unidades, serviços e centros nucleares da estrutura, em que de uma vez por todas se arrede a tradicional e já demonstradamente prejudicial posição negocial leonina dos diversos centralismos da saúde em Portugal.

Industrial radioactive barite scale: suppression of radium uptake by introduction of competing ions

Incorporation of radioactive isotopes during the formation of barite mineral scale is a widespread phenomenon occurring within the oil, mining and process industries. In a series of experiments radioactive barite/celestite solid solutions (SSBarite-Celcstite) have been synthesized under controlled conditions by the counter diffusion of Ra-226, Ba2+, Sr24+ and SO42- ions through a porous medium (silica gel), to investigate inhibiting effects in Ra uptake associated with the introduction of a competing ion (Sr2+). From characterization studies, the particle size and the morphology of the crystals appear to be related to the initial [Sr]/[Ba] molar ratio of the starting solution. Typically, systems richer in Sr produce smaller sized crystals and clusters characterized by a lower degree of order. The activity introduced to the system is mainly incorporated in the crystals generated from the barite/celestite solid solution as suggested by the activity profiles of the hydrogel columns analysed by gamma-spectrometry. There is a relationship between the initial [Sr]/[Ba] molar ratio of the starting solution and the activity exhibited by the synthesized crystals. An effective inhibition of the Ra-226 uptake during formation of the crystals (SSBarite-Celestite) was obtained through the introduction of a competing ion (Sr2+): the higher the initial [Sr]/[Ba] molar ratio of the starting solution, the lower the intensity of the activity peak in the crystals. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Contratações Públicas no Setor de Resíduos Sólidos: Um estudo sobre as formas de contratação, delegação e gestão das atividades econômicas e serviços públicos relacionados ao setor de resíduos sólidos

Existem diversas formas no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro mediante as quais o poder público pode contratar, delegar ou gerir a prestação de serviços que envolvam entes privados. São elas os contratos de mera prestação de serviços regidos pela Lei 8.666/93 ou pela Lei 10.520/02; os convênios; as concessões comuns de serviço público regidas pela Lei nº 8.987/95; as parcerias público-privadas tuteladas pela Lei 11.079/04 e os consórcios públicos regidos pela Lei nº 11.107/05. O presente trabalho visa explorar como as contratações públicas ocorrem no setor de resíduos sólidos. Para isso, em um primeiro momento foi analisada a natureza jurídica dos serviços relacionados ao manejo de resíduos. Em um segundo momento, foi traçado um panorama sobre as modelagens contratuais disponíveis ao poder público para realizar essas contratações, bem como os possíveis problemas levantados pela doutrina no uso desses moldes. Por último, foram analisados casos concretos com o fim de averiguar se os referidos problemas são levados em consideração pelo Administrador Público ao elaborar os editais e contratos para prestação desses serviços pela iniciativa privada.

O trabalho dos assistentes sociais no âmbito hospitalar: as particularidades da sua inserção no Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes (HUOL), em Natal/RN/

This study aimed to analyze the work of social workers at the Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes (HUOL), with the analytical approach the contracting process with the HUOL with the National Health System (SUS), which is set from 2004. Thus, this study sought in times of state reform, restructuring and tension between enlargement / reduction of social and labor rights, understanding the limits and possibilities of social work in HUOL, analyzing how these determinations bounce in the practice of social workers included in the collective process of health work. From a theoretical and methodological historical and dialectical materialism, we conducted literature search, in which developed book report and readings of texts, articles, books that focus on the central categories of the study, namely: Work, Social Work, Health, Health Reform , Project ethical and professional politician. Operationalized also a documentary research, on the Brazilian Public Health Policy, (SUS) and of the Education, as well as research field in which we conducted interviews with 11 social workers, employees packed the HUOL. We conclude that social workers did not participate in the discussion process of contracting the HUOL with the Municipal Health Secretariat of Natal, RN, manager of health and full resetting of user access, via reference setting - counter-referral services provided by the hospital brought the main demands on Social Work guidance regarding the functionality of SUS, and the social intervention in the struggle to guarantee such access. However, the data show that the expansion of demands that require the intervention of the social worker at HUOL is not associated with quantitative growth of these professionals need. Such conditions inflect the possibilities of materialization of the professional ethical-political project, even though that these professionals worry and seek the intellectual improvement, quality of service and to guarantee the social rights of users in the professional practice everyday

A mineração artesanal e de pequena escala em pegmatitos e cerâmica no município de Parelhas, região do Seridó/Rio Grande do Norte

The working conditions, occupational health, occupational illness and workers quality of life, usually referring to the artisanal activities and the workers with a poor professional support. Because this reality is still present in locals without good infrastructure of social and economic attention, there is a need for a broad knowledge of problems related to the productive processes that include features of unsanitary and unhealthy. Despite the intense process of industrialization promoted by globalization and the growth of developing nations like Brazil, the activities of artisanal and small-scale mining are still suffering from the marginalization of their production processes and their workers. This dissertation deals with the description of mineral-based activities (MBA), especially the activities related to production processes of extraction and processing of red pottery and minerals in pegmatites in Parelhas city, Seridó, Rio Grande do Norte, which are conducted by small mining companies or artisanal miners. The study of the work process was based on direct observation, photographic documentation, ergonomics, health and occupational safety analysis, interviews and structured questionnaire with workers of the two activities. The results indicate the need for improvement in both workplaces (red pottery and pegmatites), adaptation of workers to safety standards specific to the workplace, more attention and care related to ergonomics and occupational safety, greater importance to economic and social relations among performed activities, workers and firms of mineral branch and better and greater integration of social policies, supported by different sectors of society with the intention of transforming the current social, cultural, labor and education situation