An Empirical Study of the Mixture of Time and Movements in Prices

This paper investigates the persistent pattern in the Helsinki Exchanges. The persistent pattern is analyzed using a time and a price approach. It is hypothesized that arrival times are related to movements in prices. Thus, the arrival times are defined as durations and formulated as an Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model as in Engle and Russell (1998). The prices are defined as price changes and formulated as a GARCH process including duration measures. The research question follows from market microstructure predictions about price intensities defined as time between price changes. The microstructure theory states that long transaction durations might be associated with both no news and bad news. Accordingly, short durations would be related to high volatility and long durations to low volatility. As a result, the spread will tend to be larger under intensive moments. The main findings of this study are 1) arrival times are positively autocorrelated and 2) long durations are associated with low volatility in the market.

Theory Of Phase Transformation And Reorientation In Single Crystalline Shape Memory Alloys

A constitutive model, based on an (n + 1)-phase mixture of the Mori-Tanaka average theory, has been developed for stress-induced martensitic transformation and reorientation in single crystalline shape memory alloys. Volume fractions of different martensite lattice correspondence variants are chosen as internal variables to describe microstructural evolution. Macroscopic Gibbs free energy for the phase transformation is derived with thermodynamics principles and the ensemble average method of micro-mechanics. The critical condition and the evolution equation are proposed for both the phase transition and reorientation. This model can also simulate interior hysteresis loops during loading/unloading by switching the critical driving forces when an opposite transition takes place.

Bid-ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market. An empirical analysis

Consistent with the implications from a simple asymmetric information model for the bid-ask spread, we present empirical evidence that the size of the bid-ask spread in the foreign exchange market is positively related to the underlying exchange rate uncertainty. The estimation results are based on an ordered probit analysis that captures the discreteness in the spread distribution, with the uncertainty of the spot exchange rate being quantified through a GARCH type model. The data sets consists of more than 300,000 continuously recorded Deutschemark/dollar quotes over the period from April 1989 to June 1989. © 1994.

Bootstrapping high frequency data

Nous développons dans cette thèse, des méthodes de bootstrap pour les données financières de hautes fréquences. Les deux premiers essais focalisent sur les méthodes de bootstrap appliquées à l’approche de "pré-moyennement" et robustes à la présence d’erreurs de microstructure. Le "pré-moyennement" permet de réduire l’influence de l’effet de microstructure avant d’appliquer la volatilité réalisée. En se basant sur cette ap- proche d’estimation de la volatilité intégrée en présence d’erreurs de microstructure, nous développons plusieurs méthodes de bootstrap qui préservent la structure de dépendance et l’hétérogénéité dans la moyenne des données originelles. Le troisième essai développe une méthode de bootstrap sous l’hypothèse de Gaussianité locale des données financières de hautes fréquences. Le premier chapitre est intitulé: "Bootstrap inference for pre-averaged realized volatility based on non-overlapping returns". Nous proposons dans ce chapitre, des méthodes de bootstrap robustes à la présence d’erreurs de microstructure. Particulièrement nous nous sommes focalisés sur la volatilité réalisée utilisant des rendements "pré-moyennés" proposés par Podolskij et Vetter (2009), où les rendements "pré-moyennés" sont construits sur des blocs de rendements à hautes fréquences consécutifs qui ne se chevauchent pas. Le "pré-moyennement" permet de réduire l’influence de l’effet de microstructure avant d’appliquer la volatilité réalisée. Le non-chevauchement des blocs fait que les rendements "pré-moyennés" sont asymptotiquement indépendants, mais possiblement hétéroscédastiques. Ce qui motive l’application du wild bootstrap dans ce contexte. Nous montrons la validité théorique du bootstrap pour construire des intervalles de type percentile et percentile-t. Les simulations Monte Carlo montrent que le bootstrap peut améliorer les propriétés en échantillon fini de l’estimateur de la volatilité intégrée par rapport aux résultats asymptotiques, pourvu que le choix de la variable externe soit fait de façon appropriée. Nous illustrons ces méthodes en utilisant des données financières réelles. Le deuxième chapitre est intitulé : "Bootstrapping pre-averaged realized volatility under market microstructure noise". Nous développons dans ce chapitre une méthode de bootstrap par bloc basée sur l’approche "pré-moyennement" de Jacod et al. (2009), où les rendements "pré-moyennés" sont construits sur des blocs de rendements à haute fréquences consécutifs qui se chevauchent. Le chevauchement des blocs induit une forte dépendance dans la structure des rendements "pré-moyennés". En effet les rendements "pré-moyennés" sont m-dépendant avec m qui croît à une vitesse plus faible que la taille d’échantillon n. Ceci motive l’application d’un bootstrap par bloc spécifique. Nous montrons que le bloc bootstrap suggéré par Bühlmann et Künsch (1995) n’est valide que lorsque la volatilité est constante. Ceci est dû à l’hétérogénéité dans la moyenne des rendements "pré-moyennés" au carré lorsque la volatilité est stochastique. Nous proposons donc une nouvelle procédure de bootstrap qui combine le wild bootstrap et le bootstrap par bloc, de telle sorte que la dépendance sérielle des rendements "pré-moyennés" est préservée à l’intérieur des blocs et la condition d’homogénéité nécessaire pour la validité du bootstrap est respectée. Sous des conditions de taille de bloc, nous montrons que cette méthode est convergente. Les simulations Monte Carlo montrent que le bootstrap améliore les propriétés en échantillon fini de l’estimateur de la volatilité intégrée par rapport aux résultats asymptotiques. Nous illustrons cette méthode en utilisant des données financières réelles. Le troisième chapitre est intitulé: "Bootstrapping realized covolatility measures under local Gaussianity assumption". Dans ce chapitre nous montrons, comment et dans quelle mesure on peut approximer les distributions des estimateurs de mesures de co-volatilité sous l’hypothèse de Gaussianité locale des rendements. En particulier nous proposons une nouvelle méthode de bootstrap sous ces hypothèses. Nous nous sommes focalisés sur la volatilité réalisée et sur le beta réalisé. Nous montrons que la nouvelle méthode de bootstrap appliquée au beta réalisé était capable de répliquer les cummulants au deuxième ordre, tandis qu’il procurait une amélioration au troisième degré lorsqu’elle est appliquée à la volatilité réalisée. Ces résultats améliorent donc les résultats existants dans cette littérature, notamment ceux de Gonçalves et Meddahi (2009) et de Dovonon, Gonçalves et Meddahi (2013). Les simulations Monte Carlo montrent que le bootstrap améliore les propriétés en échantillon fini de l’estimateur de la volatilité intégrée par rapport aux résultats asymptotiques et les résultats de bootstrap existants. Nous illustrons cette méthode en utilisant des données financières réelles.

Time-varying dependence in the intraday AUS/USD spot market

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar this study examines the distribution of quotes and returns across the 24 hour trading "day". Employing statistical methods for measuring long-tenn dependence in time-series we find evidence of time-varying dependence and volatility that aligns with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

Quantifying and modeling financial market fluctuations

Die Entstehung eines Marktpreises für einen Vermögenswert kann als Superposition der einzelnen Aktionen der Marktteilnehmer aufgefasst werden, die damit kumulativ Angebot und Nachfrage erzeugen. Dies ist in der statistischen Physik mit der Entstehung makroskopischer Eigenschaften vergleichbar, die von mikroskopischen Wechselwirkungen zwischen den beteiligten Systemkomponenten hervorgerufen werden. Die Verteilung der Preisänderungen an Finanzmärkten unterscheidet sich deutlich von einer Gaußverteilung. Dies führt zu empirischen Besonderheiten des Preisprozesses, zu denen neben dem Skalierungsverhalten nicht-triviale Korrelationsfunktionen und zeitlich gehäufte Volatilität zählen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit liegt der Fokus auf der Analyse von Finanzmarktzeitreihen und den darin enthaltenen Korrelationen. Es wird ein neues Verfahren zur Quantifizierung von Muster-basierten komplexen Korrelationen einer Zeitreihe entwickelt. Mit dieser Methodik werden signifikante Anzeichen dafür gefunden, dass sich typische Verhaltensmuster von Finanzmarktteilnehmern auf kurzen Zeitskalen manifestieren, dass also die Reaktion auf einen gegebenen Preisverlauf nicht rein zufällig ist, sondern vielmehr ähnliche Preisverläufe auch ähnliche Reaktionen hervorrufen. Ausgehend von der Untersuchung der komplexen Korrelationen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen wird die Frage behandelt, welche Eigenschaften sich beim Wechsel von einem positiven Trend zu einem negativen Trend verändern. Eine empirische Quantifizierung mittels Reskalierung liefert das Resultat, dass unabhängig von der betrachteten Zeitskala neue Preisextrema mit einem Anstieg des Transaktionsvolumens und einer Reduktion der Zeitintervalle zwischen Transaktionen einhergehen. Diese Abhängigkeiten weisen Charakteristika auf, die man auch in anderen komplexen Systemen in der Natur und speziell in physikalischen Systemen vorfindet. Über 9 Größenordnungen in der Zeit sind diese Eigenschaften auch unabhängig vom analysierten Markt - Trends, die nur für Sekunden bestehen, zeigen die gleiche Charakteristik wie Trends auf Zeitskalen von Monaten. Dies eröffnet die Möglichkeit, mehr über Finanzmarktblasen und deren Zusammenbrüche zu lernen, da Trends auf kleinen Zeitskalen viel häufiger auftreten. Zusätzlich wird eine Monte Carlo-basierte Simulation des Finanzmarktes analysiert und erweitert, um die empirischen Eigenschaften zu reproduzieren und Einblicke in deren Ursachen zu erhalten, die zum einen in der Finanzmarktmikrostruktur und andererseits in der Risikoaversion der Handelsteilnehmer zu suchen sind. Für die rechenzeitintensiven Verfahren kann mittels Parallelisierung auf einer Graphikkartenarchitektur eine deutliche Rechenzeitreduktion erreicht werden. Um das weite Spektrum an Einsatzbereichen von Graphikkarten zu aufzuzeigen, wird auch ein Standardmodell der statistischen Physik - das Ising-Modell - auf die Graphikkarte mit signifikanten Laufzeitvorteilen portiert. Teilresultate der Arbeit sind publiziert in [PGPS07, PPS08, Pre11, PVPS09b, PVPS09a, PS09, PS10a, SBF+10, BVP10, Pre10, PS10b, PSS10, SBF+11, PB10].

Essays on volatility and liquidity in financial markets

The price formation of financial assets is a complex process. It extends beyond the standard economic paradigm of supply and demand to the understanding of the dynamic behavior of price variability, the price impact of information, and the implications of trading behavior of market participants on prices. In this thesis, I study aggregate market and individual assets volatility, liquidity dimensions, and causes of mispricing for US equities over a recent sample period. How volatility forecasts are modeled, what determines intradaily jumps and causes changes in intradaily volatility and what drives the premium of traded equity indexes? Are they induced, for example, by the information content of lagged volatility and return parameters or by macroeconomic news, changes in liquidity and volatility? Besides satisfying our intellectual curiosity, answers to these questions are of direct importance to investors developing trading strategies, policy makers evaluating macroeconomic policies and to arbitrageurs exploiting mispricing in exchange-traded funds. Results show that the leverage effect and lagged absolute returns improve forecasts of continuous components of daily realized volatility as well as jumps. Implied volatility does not subsume the information content of lagged returns in forecasting realized volatility and its components. The reported results are linked to the heterogeneous market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of extending the hypothesis to returns. Depth shocks, signed order flow, the number of trades, and resiliency are the most important determinants of intradaily volatility. In contrast, spread shock and resiliency are predictive of signed intradaily jumps. There are fewer macroeconomic news announcement surprises that cause extreme price movements or jumps than those that elevate intradaily volatility. Finally, the premium of exchange-traded funds is significantly associated with momentum in net asset value and a number of liquidity parameters including the spread, traded volume, and illiquidity. The mispricing of industry exchange traded funds suggest that limits to arbitrage are driven by potential illiquidity.

Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

Keittiömaailman matkassa 20 vuotta : Tutkimus erään keittiökalustevalmistajan johtavan markkina-aseman rakentamisesta ja säilyttämisestä

A View into the World of Kitchen: Development and retention of a leading position in the market of kitchen interiors - a case study of 20 years. This study focuses on the development of a kitchen interiors company, presently called Novart Inc., into the leading company of the industry from 1980´s to the present. The objective of the study is to describe the effects of strategic choices, the decisions of the management and the owner´s direction and control to the build up and the retaining of the leading position in the market. From theory point of view, strategic choices refer to com-pany purchases as corporate-level strategies, and business and marketing strategies. The empirical research was carried out in two phases and it is based on various company documents and records, and on the intensive interviews of seven key executives in the company. An abductive research design was utilized. The company gained the leading position in the kitchen market in Finland by company purchases, and the company has been able to retain the position. Firstly the goal was to expand to retail market and, secondly, the company has maintained the balance of supply and demand by closing the purchased production units when needed. The simultaneous use of these two strategic goals is a kind of a new observation, and the strategy may be suitable only for market leaders. During the latter part of the research period the strategy of com-pany purchases has been abandoned and the leading position in the market has been main-tained by developing systematically business and marketing capability. In the business and marketing strategies the distribution channels and the brands have been emphasized. During the research period the company has almost totally abandoned the long distribution channels and started to use its own channels built and named after the main brands. These are A la Carte, Parma and Petra. At the moment, in the beginning of the 21st century, a new distribution channel, the concept of the Kitchen World, is being built in addition to the channels mentioned above. The management´s decision making and the implementation the decisions have been well-considered. The executives emphasized the valuing of the importance of the decisions dif-ferently except the two decisions named the most important ones, i.e., the decisions to start own production of the raw material and to concentrate the business only to one company. The executive staff has also succeeded in managing crisis and threats of bankruptcy, and the company has been managed profitable. During all the four terms of ownership: Puolimatka Corporation, the Hankkija/Novera Corporation, the ownership period of the "bank", and the Nobia Corporate the ownership direction and control has been somewhat different. All the owners have paid attention to economic issues. The direction of cash flows and investments was at its strongest during the Hankkija/Novera term. For the last owner Nobia the production and marketing of the kitchen interiors has been the core business, which thus has strengthened the business and marketing capabilities of the target company of this research. A common denominator during all the four terms of ownership has been owners' trust gained by the professional skills of the management of the target company. This has lead to greater independence of the management of the company and less owners´ direction. Keywords: leading position, marketing strategy, management decisions, acquisition, corporate governance

An alternative view of small firm adaptation

Increasingly, small firms with a history tied to a specific geographic location are having their survival threatened by new and innovative web-based entrants. This paper considers the plight of such firms and proposes an alternative means to reflect on how they may or may not learn about such threats. Adopting an evolutionary perspective, the construct absorptive capacity is used to highlight the deficiencies of current market orientation theory to explain the process of firm learning. The conceptual model of evolutionary potential provides a framework through which both the firm and its owner/s' abilities to learn can be taken into account.

e-Extinction: an illusion of knowledge, the presence of ignorance, or evolutionary fate?

At present, the rate of small firm adoption of the Internet's ubiquitous World Wide Web (the web) far exceeds the actual exploitation its commercial potential. An inability to strategically acquire, comprehend and use external knowledge is proposed as a major barrier to optimal exploitation of the Internet. This paper discusses the limitations of applying market orientation theory to explain and guide small firm exploitation of the web. Absorptive capacity is introduced as an alternative theory that when viewed from an evolutionary perspective provides potentially more insightful discussion. An inability to detect emerging business model dominant designs is suggested to be a mixture of the nature of the technology that supports the Internet and underdeveloped small firm knowledge processing capabilities. We conclude with consideration of the practical and theoretical implications that arise from the paper.

Elements of Volatility at High Frequency

Volatility is central in options pricing and risk management. It reflects the uncertainty of investors and the inherent instability of the economy. Time series methods are among the most widely applied scientific methods to analyze and predict volatility. Very frequently sampled data contain much valuable information about the different elements of volatility and may ultimately reveal the reasons for time varying volatility. The use of such ultra-high-frequency data is common to all three essays of the dissertation. The dissertation belongs to the field of financial econometrics. The first essay uses wavelet methods to study the time-varying behavior of scaling laws and long-memory in the five-minute volatility series of Nokia on the Helsinki Stock Exchange around the burst of the IT-bubble. The essay is motivated by earlier findings which suggest that different scaling laws may apply to intraday time-scales and to larger time-scales, implying that the so-called annualized volatility depends on the data sampling frequency. The empirical results confirm the appearance of time varying long-memory and different scaling laws that, for a significant part, can be attributed to investor irrationality and to an intraday volatility periodicity called the New York effect. The findings have potentially important consequences for options pricing and risk management that commonly assume constant memory and scaling. The second essay investigates modelling the duration between trades in stock markets. Durations convoy information about investor intentions and provide an alternative view at volatility. Generalizations of standard autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are developed to meet needs observed in previous applications of the standard models. According to the empirical results based on data of actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Helsinki Stock Exchange the proposed generalization clearly outperforms the standard models and also performs well in comparison to another recently proposed alternative to the standard models. The distribution used to derive the generalization may also prove valuable in other areas of risk management. The third essay studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. Decimalization refers to the change from fractional pricing to decimal pricing and it was carried out on the New York Stock Exchange in January, 2001. The methods used here are more accurate than in the earlier studies and put more weight on market microstructure. The main result is that decimalization decreased observed volatility by reducing noise variance especially for the highly active stocks. The results help risk management and market mechanism designing.

Animal Spirits

Animal Spirits is multi-channel video portrait of key personalities involved in the Global Financial Crisis. The four-screen installation displays these twelve decapitated apostles of free-market economic theory in a tableau of droning pontification. Trapped in a purgatorial loop, they endlessly spout vague and obfuscating explanations and defenses of their ideologies and (in)actions. The work takes a creatively quotidian approach to understanding the language of economics and the financial services industry. Through its endless loop of sound, image, and spoken text, the installation examines some of the ideas, narratives and power dynamics that foster and reward hubris and greed.

Finnish Short-Term Stock Returns

Functioning capital markets are a crucial part of a competitive economy since they provide the mechanisms to allocate resources. In order to be well functioning a capital market has to be efficient. Market efficiency is defined as a market where prices at any time fully reflect all available information. Basically, this means that abnormal returns cannot be predicted since they are dependent on future, presently unknown, information. The debate of market efficiency has been going on for several decades. Most academics today would probably agree that financial markets are reasonably efficient since virtually nobody has been able to achieve continuous abnormal positive returns. However, it is clear that a set of return anomalies exists, although they are apparently to small to enable substantial economic profit. Moreover, these anomalies can often be attributed to market design. The motivation for this work is to expand the knowledge of short-term trading patterns and to offer some explanations for these patterns. In the first essay the return pattern during the day is examined. On average stock prices move during two time periods of the day, namely, immediately after the opening and around the formal close of the market. Since stock prices, on average, move upwards these abnormal returns are generally positive and cause the distinct U-shape of intraday returns. In the second essay the results in the first essay are examined further. The return pattern around the former close is shown to partly be the result of manipulative action by market participants. In the third essay the focus is shifted towards trading patterns of the underlying stocks on days when index options and index futures on the stocks expire. Generally no expiration day effect was found. However, some indication of an expiration day effect was found when a large amount of open in- or at-the-money contracts existed. Also, the effects were likelier to be found for shares with high index-weight but fairly low trading volume. Last, in the forth essay the attention is turned to the behaviour of different tax clienteles around the dividend ex-day. Two groups of investors showed abnormal trading behaviour. Domestic non-financial investors, especially domestic companies, showed a dividend capturing behaviour, i.e. buying cum-dividend and selling ex-dividend shares. The opposite behaviour was found for foreign investors and domestic financial institutions. The effect was more notable for high yield, high volume stocks.

Intraday Dynamics of International Equity Markets

The increased availability of high frequency data sets have led to important new insights in understanding of financial markets. The use of high frequency data is interesting and persuasive, since it can reveal new information that cannot be seen in lower data aggregation. This dissertation explores some of the many important issues connected with the use, analysis and application of high frequency data. These include the effects of intraday seasonal, the behaviour of time varying volatility, the information content of various market data, and the issue of inter market linkages utilizing high frequency 5 minute observations from major European and the U.S stock indices, namely DAX30 of Germany, CAC40 of France, SMI of Switzerland, FTSE100 of the UK and SP500 of the U.S. The first essay in the dissertation shows that there are remarkable similarities in the intraday behaviour of conditional volatility across European equity markets. Moreover, the U.S macroeconomic news announcements have significant cross border effect on both, European equity returns and volatilities. The second essay reports substantial intraday return and volatility linkages across European stock indices of the UK and Germany. This relationship appears virtually unchanged by the presence or absence of the U.S stock market. However, the return correlation among the U.K and German markets rises significantly following the U.S stock market opening, which could largely be described as a contemporaneous effect. The third essay sheds light on market microstructure issues in which traders and market makers learn from watching market data, and it is this learning process that leads to price adjustments. This study concludes that trading volume plays an important role in explaining international return and volatility transmissions. The examination concerning asymmetry reveals that the impact of the positive volume changes is larger on foreign stock market volatility than the negative changes. The fourth and the final essay documents number of regularities in the pattern of intraday return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spreads. This study also reports a contemporaneous and positive relationship between the intraday return volatility, bid ask spread and unexpected trading volume. These results verify the role of trading volume and bid ask quotes as proxies for information arrival in producing contemporaneous and subsequent intraday return volatility. Moreover, asymmetric effect of trading volume on conditional volatility is also confirmed. Overall, this dissertation explores the role of information in explaining the intraday return and volatility dynamics in international stock markets. The process through which the information is incorporated in stock prices is central to all information-based models. The intraday data facilitates the investigation that how information gets incorporated into security prices as a result of the trading behavior of informed and uninformed traders. Thus high frequency data appears critical in enhancing our understanding of intraday behavior of various stock markets’ variables as it has important implications for market participants, regulators and academic researchers.