Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains

BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.

Observation of the suppression of water uptake by marine particles

A 4 week intensive measurement campaign was conducted in March–April 2007 at Agnes Water, a remote coastal site on the east coast of Australia. A Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was used to investigate changes in the hygroscopic properties of ambient particles as volatile components were progressively evaporated. Nine out of 18 VH-TDMA volatility scans detected internally mixed multi-component particles in the nucleation and Aitken modes in clean marine air. Evaporation of a volatile, organic-like component in the VH-TDMA caused significant increases in particle hygroscopicity. In 3 scans the increase in hygroscopicity was so large it was explained by an increase in the absolute volume of water uptake by the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicates the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). This observation was supported by ZSR calculations for one scan, which showed that the measured growth factors of mixed particles were up to 18% below those predicted assuming independent water uptake of the individual particle components. The observed suppression of water uptake could be due to a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth caused by the presence of organic films or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity.

Agglutinins from marine macroalgae of the southeastern United States

Protein extracts from 22 species of marine macroalgae from Florida and North Carolina were compared for their abilities to agglutinate sheep and rabbit erythrocytes. Protein extracts from 21 algal species agglutinated rabbit erythrocytes compared to 19 for sheep erythrocytes. However, agglutination by brown algal extracts was variable. The agglutination produced by protein extracts from Dictyota dichotoma could be blocked by addition of polyvinylpyrrolidone. Protein extracts from North Carolina macroalgae were also tested against five bacterial species. Three of these agglutinated bacterial cells. Ulva curvata and Bryopsis plumosa agglutinated all five species. Protein extracts from five species of Florida algae were tested for their effects on mitogenesis in mouse splenocytes and human lymphocytes. Gracilaria tikvahiae HBOI Strain G-5, Ulva rigida and Gracilaria verrucosa HBOI Strain G-16S stimulated mitogenesis in mouse splenocytes, while Gracilaria tikvahiae HBOI Strain G-16stimulated mitogenesis in human lymphocytes.

Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

Investigation of the effect of organics on the water uptake of marine aerosols

Water uptake refers to the ability of atmospheric particles to take up water vapour from the surrounding atmosphere. This is an important property that affects particle size and phase and therefore influences many characteristics of aerosols relevant to air quality and climate. However, the water uptake properties of many important atmospheric aerosol systems, including those related to the oceans, are still not fully understood. Therefore, the primary aim of this PhD research program was to investigate the water uptake properties of marine aerosols. In particular, the effect of organics on marine aerosol water uptake was investigated. Field campaigns were conducted at remote coastal sites on the east coast of Australia (Agnes Water; March-April 2007) and west coast of Ireland (Mace Head; June 2007), and laboratory measurements were performed on bubble-generated sea spray aerosols. A combined Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was employed in all experiments. This system probes the changes in the hygroscopic properties of nanoparticles as volatile organic components are progressively evaporated. It also allows particle composition to be inferred from combined volatility-hygroscopicity measurements. Frequent new particle formation and growth events were observed during the Agnes Water campaign. The VH-TDMA was used to investigate freshly nucleated particles (17-22.5 nm) and it was found that the condensation of sulphate and/or organic vapours was responsible for driving particle growth during the events. Aitken mode particles (~40 nm) were also measured with the VH-TDMA. In 3 out of 18 VH-TDMA scans evaporation of a volatile, organic component caused a very large increase in hygroscopicity that could only be explained by an increase in the absolute water uptake of the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicated the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). It was suggested that the suppression of water uptake was caused by either a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth due to the presence of organic films, or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity. Mixed organic-inorganic particles were rarely observed by the VH-TDMA during the summer campaign conducted at Mace Head. The majority of particles below 100 nm in clean, marine air appeared to be sulphates neutralised to varying degrees by ammonia. On one unique day, 26 June 2007, particularly large concentrations of sulphate aerosol were observed and identified as volcanic emissions from Iceland. The degree of neutralisation of the sulphate aerosol by ammonia was calculated by the VH-TDMA and found to compare well with the same quantity measured by an aerosol mass spectrometer. This was an important verification of the VH-TMDA‘s ability to identify ammoniated sulphate aerosols based on the simultaneous measurement of aerosol volatility and hygroscopicity. A series of measurements were also conducted on sea spray aerosols generated from Moreton Bay seawater samples in a laboratory-based bubble chamber. Accumulation mode sea spray particles (38-173 nm) were found to contain only a minor organic fraction (< 10%) that had little effect on particle hygroscopicity. These results are important because previous studies have observed that accumulation mode sea spray particles are predominantly organic (~80% organic mass fraction). The work presented here suggests that this is not always the case, and that there may be currently unknown factors that are controlling the transfer of organics to the aerosol phase during the bubble bursting process. Taken together, the results of this research program have significantly improved our understanding of organic-containing marine aerosols and the way they interact with water vapour in the atmosphere.

Autonomous aerial navigation and tracking of marine animals

In this paper, we describe the development of an independent and on-board visual servoing system which allows a computationally impoverished aerial vehicle to autonomously identify and track a moving surface target. Our image segmentation and target identification algorithms were developed with the specific task of monitoring whales at sea but could be adapted for other targets. Observing whales is important for many marine biology tasks and is currently performed manually from the shore or from boats. We also present hardware experiments which demonstrate the capabilities of our algorithms for object identification and tracking that enable a flying vehicle to track a moving target.

A comparative study of the number and mass of fine particles emitted with diesel fuel and marine gas oil (MGO)

The current investigation reports on diesel particulate matter emissions, with special interest in fine particles from the combustion of two base fuels. The base fuels selected were diesel fuel and marine gas oil (MGO). The experiments were conducted with a four-stroke, six-cylinder, direct injection diesel engine. The results showed that the fine particle number emissions measured by both SMPS and ELPI were higher with MGO compared to diesel fuel. It was observed that the fine particle number emissions with the two base fuels were quantitatively different but qualitatively similar. The gravimetric (mass basis) measurement also showed higher total particulate matter (TPM) emissions with the MGO. The smoke emissions, which were part of TPM, were also higher for the MGO. No significant changes in the mass flow rate of fuel and the brake-specific fuel consumption (BSFC) were observed between the two base fuels.