O que é que o reeleito tem? O retorno: o esboço de uma teoria da reeleição no Brasil

This article compares the determinants of electoral success in two consecutive Brazilian legislative elections, 1998 and 2002. There is a clear difference between both periods that renders the comparison especially interesting. In 1998 the incumbent president was running for reelection whereas in 2002 it was an open seat contest. We hypothesize that in 1998 the proximity of the Federal Deputy with the president and the allocation of federal monies controlled by the Executive Branch played a more significant role in affecting reelection success than in 2002. Hence, if the President is himself running for reelection is an important intervening contextual variable in understanding reelection success of Federal Deputies.

Los efectos de la presencia paramilitar en Córdoba en las elecciones legislativas 2002-2006

El presente estudio de caso analiza el impacto de la influencia paramilitar en los resultados de las elecciones legislativas 2002 y 2006 en el Departamento de Córdoba. Busca principalmente establecer distinciones entre los diferentes casos agrupados en la noción de ‘parapolítica’. Para ello reseña el desarrollo del paramilitarismo en el Departamento y su relación con las élites políticas, posteriormente se construyó un índice de Hegemonía que indica el predominio de determinado candidato en más de la mitad de los votos de un municipio, y se analizan diversos mapas elaborados a partir de los coeficientes de Pearson y Moran. Finalmente, a partir del contraste entre el análisis estadístico y la información documental se presenta una tipología que recoge los diversos matices del apoyo paramilitar según los distintos candidatos.

El transfuguismo politico en el sistema de partidos en Colombia en el marco de los actos legislativos 01-2003 y 01-2009

El presente trabajo busca examinar cómo los elementos modificados en el Sistema Electoral Colombiano a través del Acto legislativo 01 del 2003 y el 01 del 2009, a saber: lista única, cifra repartidora y umbral electoral, propiciaron el transfuguismo político dado en las elecciones legislativas del año 2006 y 2010 en Colombia. La investigación partirá de la explicación del fenómeno transfuguista y de sus respectivas variables causales; se analizaran las elecciones al Congreso de la República previas a la reforma política, con el fin de poder interpretar desde su comportamiento tradicional, los efectos de los elementos modificados del Sistema Electoral en la práctica transfuguista de las elecciones legislativas de los años 2006 y 2010.

Electoral institutions,cleavage structures,and the number of parties

Theory: A classic question in political science concems ",hat deteImines the number of parties that compete in a given polity. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to answering this question, one that emphasizes the role of electorallaws in structuring coalitional incentives, another that emphasizes the importance of pre-existing social cleavages. In tbis paper, we view the number of parties as a product of the interaction between these two forces, following Powell (1982) and Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994). Hypotheses: The effective number of parties in a polity should be a multiplicative rather than an additive function ofthe peImissiveness ofthe electoral system and the heterogeneity ofthe society. Methods: Multiple regression on cross-sectional aggregate electoral statistics. Unlike previous studies, we (1) do not confine attention to developed democracies; (2) explicitly control for the influence of presidential elections, taking account of whether they are concurrent or nonconcurrent, and ofthe effective number ofpresidential candidates; and (3) also control for the presence and operation of upper tiers in legislative elections. Results: The hypothesis is confiImed, both as regards the number of legislative and the number of presidential parties .

Presidents, assemblies, and accountability

Much research has explored the relationship between economics and elections, and scholars have begun to explore how institutions mediate that link. However, the relationship between presidential institutions and electoral accountability remains largely unexplored in comparative politics. Because voters in presidential systems can cast votes for executive and legislative elections separately, we have good reasons to suspect that the institutions of presidentialism might generate different forms or degrees of accountability than parliamentarism. Powell and Whitten (1993) suggest that the partisan or institutional “clarity of responsibility” might mediate the relationship between economics and elections: when responsibility for outcomes is clear, the relationship should be strong, and vice-versa. I develop this notion for use in presidential systems, and explore executive and legislative elections in 24 countries. The results indicate that economics always influences the incumbent vote in executive elections, regardless of the partisan or institutional clarity of responsibility. Economics also affects vote swings in legislative elections, but the institutional clarity of responsibility does mediate this relationship: legislative accountability for national economic outcomes is lowest when clarity of responsibility is highest, a situation that arises when the president is relatively more powerful and the bases for electing legislators and the president differ. By providing an empirical basis for a discussion of accountability under presidentialism, these findings contribute to important debates in comparative politics.

The Sarkozy effect: France’s new presidential dynamic

The election on 6 May 2007 of Nicolas Sarkozy as President of the Republic ushered in the promise of a new era in France. Sarkozy’s presidency follows those of the Socialist François Mitterrand (1981-95) and the neo-Gaullist Jacques Chirac (1995-2007), who together occupied France’s highest political office for more than a quarter-century. From the outset, Sarkozy’s presidential campaign was predicated on the need for change in France, for a “rupture” with the past; and his emphatic victory against the Socialist Ségolène Royal gave him a mandate to effect this. The legislative elections of June 2007, by assuring a strong majority in the National Assembly for Sarkozy’s centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP), left the way clear for implementing the new President’s reform agenda over the next five years. This article examines the political context within which Sarkozy was elected to power, the main proposals of his presidential program, the challenges he faces, and his prospects for bringing real change to France.

The far right vote in France:from consolidation to collapse?

The presidential and legislative elections of 2007 are widely seen to have marked the end of the far right as a major political force in France. How could this occur only five years after Le Pen’s qualification for the presidential run-off, and with his party seemingly in the ascendant? This article discusses recent fluctuations in far-right electoral performance in France. It focuses largely on the presidential elections of 2002 and 2007, re-examining the (supposed) upswell of far-right support in 2002 and its (supposed) subsidence in 2007. Both elections require nuanced interpretation. Both confounded poll predictions, which in 2007 failed to measure the effect of Sarkozy’s hard-right campaign and, crucially, the extent to which the border between “mainstream right” and “far right” had shifted since 2002. This allowed Sarkozy to drain part of Le Pen’s electorate, and raises questions over the longer-term impact of Le Pen and the FN on the political agenda in France.

The unintended [or intended?] political consequences of electoral systems: The case of Bolivia

The present study was concerned with evaluating one basic institution in Bolivian democracy: its electoral system. The study evaluates the impact of electoral systems on the interaction between presidents and assemblies. It sought to determine whether it is possible to have electoral systems that favor multipartism but can also moderate the likelihood of executive-legislative confrontation by producing the necessary conditions for coalition building. ^ This dissertation utilized the case study method as a methodology. Using the case of Bolivia, the research project studied the variations in executive-legislative relations and political outcomes from 1985 to the present through a model of executive-legislative relations that provided a typology of presidents and assemblies based on the strategies available to them to bargain with each other for support. A complementary model that evaluated the state of their inter-institutional interaction was also employed. ^ Results indicated that executive-legislative relations are profoundly influenced by the choice of the electoral system. Similarly, the project showed that although the Bolivian mixed system for legislative elections, and executive formula favor multipartism, these electoral systems do not necessarily engender executive-legislative confrontation in Bolivia. This was mainly due to the congressional election of the president, and the formulas utilized to translate the popular vote into legislative seats. However, the study found that the electoral system has also allowed for anti-systemic forces to emerge and gain political space both within and outside of political institutions. ^ The study found that government coalitions in Bolivia that are promoted by the system of congressional election of the president and the D'Hondt system to allocate legislative seats have helped ameliorate one of the typical problems of presidential systems in Latin America: the presence of a minority government that is blocked in its capacity to govern. This study was limited to evaluating the impact of the electoral system, as the independent variable, on executive-legislative interaction. However, the project revealed a need for more theoretical and empirical work on executive-legislative bargaining models in order to understand how institutional reforms can have an impact on the incentives of presidents and legislators to form coherent coalitions. ^

The New Voter in Western Europe: France and Beyond

This book presents the main results of an electoral panel study which is both unique and innovative not only in French political research but also among Western European electoral studies. The survey was conducted among a sample of 1,846 French voters interviewed on four separate occasions (2007 Presidential and Legislative elections). Electoral trajectories can thus be observed revealing the main trends in electoral behaviour and voting patterns across the electorate. The analysis of such trajectories and patterns mobilizes not only the usual explanatory factors (demographics, political leanings and identifications) but also another set of political variables (issues, the campaign and the media, the candidates' image, how electoral decisions are made, hesitation in voting intentions).This study also provides interesting findings on electoral volatility, including abstention. (Résumé éditeur)

On the Political Aspects of Unemployment: The Case of Election Results

Unemployment is related to economic, political and social aspects. One of the least analysed political aspects is the relationship that, from a partisan or ideological perspective, should exist between the election results and the aging level of the voters, which is to be reflected in different electoral costs of unemployment. This chapter updates previous work on the subject, using a spatial econometrics methodology to estimate the relationship between the levels of aging and the election results that were obtained in the most recent elections that took place in Portugal, i.e. the October 2015 legislative elections. The results confirm the hypothesis that the level of unemployment involves a higher (resp. lower) electoral cost the less (resp. more) aged is the electorate.

El efecto de la cuota de género en Colombia: Un panorama sobre la participación política femenina durante las elecciones legislativas de 2014

El propósito del presente estudio de caso es evaluar el alcance de la cuota género con respecto a la participación política femenina, durante las elecciones legislativas de 2014 en Colombia. A partir de entrevistas realizadas a las congresistas y a los miembros de los partidos políticos, del estudio de los perfiles de las mujeres electas y de una serie de elementos teóricos relativos al sistema electoral; se analizan y explican los factores que llevaron a la cuota a tener un efecto limitado con respecto al número de mujeres electas. Posteriormente, siguiendo los planteamientos de Iris Marion Young, se estudia el funcionamiento de la cuota desde un concepto más amplio de acción afirmativa, lo que permite identificar el efecto de la cuota en relación con las barreras culturales que dificultan la participación política femenina.

El Salvador's 1985 elections : Legislative Assembly and municipal councils.

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Elections Laws of Iowa, 2013

This publication is produced by the Legislative Services Agency. This publication contains all election laws to be included in the 2014 Iowa Code. Changes in Code language to be included in the 2014 Iowa Code are marked by highlighting in yellow. Code sections with changes are also highlighted in yellow in the Table of Contents.

Elections Laws of Iowa, 2014

This publication is produced by the Legislative Services Agency. This publication contains all election laws to be included in the 2014 Iowa Code. Changes in Code language to be included in the 2014 Iowa Code are marked by highlighting in yellow. Code sections with changes are also highlighted in yellow in the Table of Contents.