Growth for Europe – Is the Juncker Plan the answer? EPC Discussion Paper, 20 March 2015

Executive Summary. The euro area is still suffering from low growth and high unemployment. For the recovery to become a reality, there needs to be a balance between fiscal discipline, supply side improvements and actions aimed at stimulating demand and growth. Increasing investment, both private and public, are important components in overcoming the recession. This becomes especially clear when comparing investment dynamics during the crisis with pre-crisis levels. Total investment is still much lower than before the crisis and public investment is well below its pre-crisis peak as well. In late November 2014, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker submitted a long-awaited proposal for a European Investment Plan that aims to stimulate private investment. Apart from the creation of the new European Fund for Strategic Investment (EFSI), through which private investors will receive public guarantees, the investment plan also aims to provide project assistance and improve the Single Market by removing sector-specific or other financial barriers to investment. While generally perceived as a first positive step towards increasing private investment, some commentators have expressed reservations about the plan. These include, among others, the lack of fresh money for the initial contributions to EFSI. Since a substantial amount of these contributions is reshuffled from other places in the European budget, the question was raised whether EFSI can fund additional projects or just replicates investment projects that would have happened without the plan. Other criticism relates to the high estimate of the expected leverage ratio of 1:15, and to the risk that the plan will only have a limited impact on stressed economies. The Juncker Plan addresses private investment, but so far there really is no clear strategy to stimulate productive public investment on the European and national level. Countries with fiscal space are reluctant to engage in higher spending, while those willing and in need of it the most are restricted by the rules. Member States and the Commission should therefore discuss options for further improving the euro area's economic governance. In addition to urging countries with fiscal space to increase investing in national public goods, investment could be treated with budget flexibility. One could, for instance, upgrade the importance of public investment in the European Semester. Additional deficit granted for public investment purposes could be attached to certain Country-Specific Recommendations. Another solution would be to allow some form of budget flexibility, such as the formulation of a new Golden Rule for productive public investment becoming part of the Stability and Growth Pact's application. Besides relying on a larger amount of flexibility in the rules, the Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) could be another solution to fund investment in European public goods. It will also be necessary to overcome the mistrust among Member States that is preventing further action. The political bargain of stronger conditionality, such as through contractual arrangements, could improve the situation. Increased trust will also be an important condition for tackling long-reaching economic governance reforms such as the creation of a Fiscal Capacity, which could take the form of a macroeconomic shock insurance. Such a Fiscal Capacity could make a real difference in providing the necessary funding to maintain productive public investment, even in times of deep recessions. The proposals presented do not attempt to be conclusive, but shall rather be an input for a wider debate on how to increase growth and employment in Europe. The paper draws heavily on the discussion of a Workshop on Growth and Investment, which the European Policy Centre (EPC) hosted on 10 December 2014 under Chatham-House Rule, with a group of economists and representatives from the European institutions.

A preface to politics,

Routineer and inventor.--The taboo.--The changing focus.--The golden rule and after.--Well meaning but unmeaning: the Chicago vice report.--Some necessary iconoclasm.--The making of creeds.--The red herring.--Revolution and culture.

Dynamical Resonances and SSF Singularities for a Magnetic Schrödinger Operator

We consider the Hamiltonian H of a 3D spinless non-relativistic quantum particle subject to parallel constant magnetic and non-constant electric field. The operator H has infinitely many eigenvalues of infinite multiplicity embedded in its continuous spectrum. We perturb H by appropriate scalar potentials V and investigate the transformation of these embedded eigenvalues into resonances. First, we assume that the electric potentials are dilation-analytic with respect to the variable along the magnetic field, and obtain an asymptotic expansion of the resonances as the coupling constant ϰ of the perturbation tends to zero. Further, under the assumption that the Fermi Golden Rule holds true, we deduce estimates for the time evolution of the resonance states with and without analyticity assumptions; in the second case we obtain these results as a corollary of suitable Mourre estimates and a recent article of Cattaneo, Graf and Hunziker [11]. Next, we describe sets of perturbations V for which the Fermi Golden Rule is valid at each embedded eigenvalue of H; these sets turn out to be dense in various suitable topologies. Finally, we assume that V decays fast enough at infinity and is of definite sign, introduce the Krein spectral shift function for the operator pair (H+V, H), and study its singularities at the energies which coincide with eigenvalues of infinite multiplicity of the unperturbed operator H.

Kormányközi szerződéssel a költségvetési stabilitásért? (Intergovernmental agreement for fiscal discipline?)

Az EU fiskális szabályai bevezetésük óta az akadémiai kutatások homlokterében állnak. A nemzeti szintű fiskális szabályok vizsgálata ugyanakkor egy jobbára negligált területe maradt a nemzetközi kutatásoknak. Az idén életbe lépett új költségvetési paktum éppen ezen nemzeti szintű, a költségvetés egyensúlyát előíró szabályok bevezetésétől várja a fiskális fegyelem meghonosítását az EU országaiban. A tanulmány megmutatja, hogy az olyan nemzeti szabályok, mint a német aranyszabály, nem tekinthetők a fiskális fegyelem egyedüli letéteményeseinek. Ezek ugyanis többnyire egy átfogó reformcsomag részei voltak csupán. Amire szükség van ezért, az egy átfogó és átgondolt államháztartási reform, valamint a szabályok nemzeti birtokbavétele. Az új paktumot is ezen pontokon volna szükséges erősíteni. ______ The scrutiny of EU fiscal rules such as the Maastricht criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact has become the focus of many scholarly works. The study of domestic fiscal rules, however, has remained a neglected part of research. The new Treaty on Stability, Cooperation and Governance (TSCG), however, makes the analysis of domestic fiscal rules highly relevant, since the treaty requires member states to adopt a balanced budget rule. The paper demonstrates that domestic rules such as the German golden rule were hardly the sole triggering factors of fiscal discipline; rather, they served as the key elements of a comprehensive reform package. Thus, the paper argues that without bold and comprehensive reforms of the general government on the one hand and national ownership on the other hand, no fiscal rule can be effective enough. The new TSCG should be strengthened, therefore, in this particular aspect.

Megtakarítási típusok - egy adaptív-evolúciós megközelítés = Types of saving - an adaptive-evolutionary approach

A közgazdaságtanban az ágensalapú modellezés egyik alkalmazási területe a makro ökonómia. Ebben a tanulmányban néhány népszerű megtakarítási szabály létét feltételezve adaptív-evolúciós megközelítésben endogén módon próbálunk következtetni e szabályok relatív életképességére. Három különböző típusú ágenst vezetünk be: egy prudens, egy rövidlátó és egy, a permanensjövedelem-elméletnek megfelelően működőt. Rendkívül erős szelekciós nyomás mellett a prudens típus egyértelműen kiszorítja a másik kettőt. A második legéletképesebbnek a rövidlátó típus tűnik, de már közepes szelekciós nyomásnál sem tűnik el egyik típus sem. Szokásos tőkehatékonyság mellett a prudens típus túlzott beruházási tendenciát visz a gazdaságba, és a gazdaság az aranykori megtakarítási rátánál magasabbat ér el. A hitelkorlátok oldása még nagyobb mértékű túlzott beruházáshoz vezethet, a hitelek mennyiségének növekedése mellett a tőketulajdonosok mintegy "kizsákmányoltatják" magukat azokkal, akiknek nincs tőkejövedelmük. A hosszú távú átlagos fogyasztás szempontjából a három típus kiegyensúlyozott aránya adja a legjobb eredményt, ugyanakkor ez jóval nagyobb ingadozással jár, mint amikor csak prudens típusú háztartások léteznek. ____ Agent-based modelling techniques have been employed for some time in macroeconomics. This paper tests some popular saving rules in an adaptive-evolutionary context of looking at their relative survival values. The three types are prudent, short-sighted, and responsive to the permanent-income hypothesis. It is found that where selection pressure is very high, only the prudent type persists. The second most resilient seems to be the short-sighted type, but all three coexist even at medium levels of selection pressure. When the efficiency of capital approaches the level usually assumed in macroeconomics, the prudent type drives the economy towards excessive accumulation of capital, i. e. a long-term savings rate that exceeds the golden rule. If credit constraints are relaxed, this tendency strengthens as credit grows and capital-owners seem to allow themselves to be exploited" by workers. From the angle of average consumption, the best outcome is obtained from a random distribution of types, although this is accompanied by higher volatility.

A nossa regra de ouro na doença de Behçet: tratar a manifestação clínica

A Doença de Behçet (DB) é uma vasculite sistémica que pode ser definida na fronteira entre a doença autoimune e autoinflamatória. A sua etiopatogenia ainda não é completamente conhecida, embora saibamos que contribuem factores genéticos (Antigénios de Histocompatibilidade/ HLA, por exemplo) e ambienciais (maior prevalência em zonas específicas do globo). Há células implicadas no processo patológico (neutrófilos, macrófagos, linfócitos T reguladores) e outros componentes (factor de necrose tumoral/ TNF, interleucinas) do sistema imune. As formas clínicas da DB são muito variadas, quer na gravidade, quer nos órgãos atingidos: Behçet Mucocutâneo, Behçet Ocular, Vasculobehçet, Neurobehçet, Behçet Intestinal, Behçet Cardíaco. Independentemente dos mecanismos imuno-inflamatórios subjacentes às diversas apresentações clínicas, a terapêutica tem de ser adaptada a cada uma delas. A nossa série de DB, coligida ao longo de 20 anos, é representativa de todo o espectro clínico de DB e consideramos útil fazer uma resenha atual da terapêutica indicada, caldeando os dados da literatura, com a nossa experiência.

Geophagy in the golden-faced saki monkey (Pithecia pithecia chrysocephala) in the Central Amazon

The golden-faced saki monkey Pithecia pithecia chrysocephala (Cebidae, Primates) was observed eating soil from termite nests during a long-term study of a family group in a Central Amazonian forest fragment. In this paper we describe the behaviour involved in the geophagy in these monkeys, and the results of geochemical and physical analyses of the termite nest material, as well as root mat and topsoil samples below the trees, in order to clarify the possible reasons for it. The sakis ate soil from nine arboreal termite nests on 26 soil feeding-bouts (in 853 observation hours); 25 soil feeding-bouts occurred in March 1987 (rainy season), during 19 days or 132 observation hours, and occupied 0.7% of the feeding time. Geophagy frequencies did not differ between sexes (17 feeding-bouts of four females and 8 for two males). Mineral composition was higher in arboreal termitaria than in the topsoil. Kaolinite was the major clay component. Tannin adsorptive capacity, tested through a modified radial diffusion method of Hagerman, was around 10-20%, similar to a control with kaolin (10-20%), but lower than bentonite or celite (30-45%). The observations reported here, although inconclusive as to the function of geophagy in this species, indicate that it is not a mineral supplement during times of scarcity or high consumption of leaves, as has been reported for other primates, nor that it is related to fruit consumption (redressing possible mineral imbalance), as has been suggested for some other frugivorous mammals. Our results do not rule out tannin adsorptive hypothesis for the ingestion of clays, but, being an irregular habit, we argue that it is most likely related to rare and occasional dietary components.

Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?

The Taylor rule has become one of the most studied strategies for monetary policy. Yet, little is known whether the Federal Reserve follows a non-linear Taylor rule. This paper employs the smooth transition regression model and asks the question: does the Federal Reserve change its policy-rule according to the level of inflation and/or the output gap? I find that the Federal Reserve does follow a non-linear Taylor rule and, more importantly, that the Federal Reserve followed a non-linear Taylor rule during the golden era of monetary policy, 1985-2005, and a linear Taylor rule throughout the dark age of monetary policy, 1960-1979. Thus, good monetary policy is associated with a non-linear Taylor rule: once inflation approaches a certain threshold, the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy-rule and begins to respond more forcefully to inflation.

Fibonacci Series, Golden Proportions, and the Human Biology

Pythagoras, Plato and Euclid’s paved the way for Classical Geometry. The idea of shapes that can be mathematically defined by equations led to the creation of great structures of modern and ancient civilizations, and milestones in mathematics and science. However, classical geometry fails to explain the complexity of non-linear shapes replete in nature such as the curvature of a flower or the wings of a Butterfly. Such non-linearity can be explained by fractal geometry which creates shapes that emulate those found in nature with remarkable accuracy. Such phenomenon begs the question of architectural origin for biological existence within the universe. While the concept of a unifying equation of life has yet to be discovered, the Fibonacci sequence may establish an origin for such a development. The observation of the Fibonacci sequence is existent in almost all aspects of life ranging from the leaves of a fern tree, architecture, and even paintings, makes it highly unlikely to be a stochastic phenomenon. Despite its wide-spread occurrence and existence, the Fibonacci series and the Rule of Golden Proportions has not been widely documented in the human body. This paper serves to review the observed documentation of the Fibonacci sequence in the human body.

Existem diferenças nos parâmetros hematológicos e bioquímicos séricos entre fêmeas normais e portadoras do modelo experimental GRMD (Golden Retriever Muscular Dystrophy)?

A proposta deste estudo foi avaliar se existem alterações nos padrões hematológicos e bioquímicos de cadelas da raça Golden Retriever portadoras do gene da distrofia muscular progressiva em comparação aos valores obtidos em cadelas não portadoras de mesma raça e idade. Foram analisados 33 animais, distribuídos em dois grupos, um composto por 19 cadelas Golden Retrievers não portadoras (GRNP) e outro composto por 14 cadelas Golden Retrievers portadoras do gene da distrofia muscular (GRP). Os dois grupos foram submetidos aos mesmos testes hematológicos e bioquímicos, com a mesma frequência e durante o mesmo intervalo de tempo. Apesar de existir diferença estatisticamente significativa entre os grupos para alguns parâmetros hematológicos avaliados, todos os resultados obtidos estavam de acordo com os valores de referência utilizados. Na avaliação dos parâmetros bioquímicos séricos a dosagem de ALT no grupo GRNP ficou levemente acima da média, porém sem grandes significados clínicos A CK também apresentou níveis elevados no grupo GRP, devido à degeneração e necrose muscular característicos da doença, as alterações encontradas nessa análise já eram esperadas. Os demais parâmetros não se alteraram.

Alterações do trato digestório de cães da raça Golden Retriever afetados pela distrofia muscular

O modelo experimental canino Golden Retriever portador da Distrofia Muscular (GRMD) é o melhor substituto entre os modelos animais para estudar a Distrofia Muscular de Duchenne. Além da musculatura estriada, a doença pode afetar a musculatura estriada cardíaca e a musculatura lisa, e desta forma, o funcionamento do trato digestório, já que o músculo liso é o elemento primário dos órgãos tubulares. Através de estudo morfológico descritivo, o objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar se a distrofia muscular afeta a arquitetura geral do trato digestório e como se dispõe sua estrutura muscular em animais afetados. Foram realizadas avaliações descritivas macro e microscópicas com colorações de Hematoxilina-Eosina, Tricrômio de Masson e Picrosirius. Entre os resultados apresentados, verificou-se que o esôfago e o fígado dos animais afetados encontraram-se alterados, assim como o estômago não ocupava seu lugar habitual. O músculo diafragma apresentava-se atrofiado e diferenças histológicas foram encontradas na camada muscular do sistema gastrointestinal, em geral. Outras estruturas do tubo digestório de GRMDs apresentaram-se de maneira similar a de um animal normal.

Frugivory and seed dispersal of golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia (Linnaeus, 1766)) in a forest fragment in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

The influence of the golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia) as a seed disperser was studied by monitoring two groups of tamarins from December 1998 to December 2000 (871.9 hours of observations) in a forest fragment in south-east Brazil. The tamarins consumed fruits of 57 species from at least 17 families. They ingested the seeds of 39 species, and 23 of these were put to germinate in the laboratory and/or in the field. L. rosalia is a legitimate seed disperser because the seeds of all species tested germinated after ingestion, albeit some in low percentages. These primates do not show a consistent effect in final seed germination, because they benefit some species while damaging others. Feces were examined for seeds that had been preyed upon or digested.

Ultra-sonografia abdominal e pélvica em cães da raça golden retriever sadios, portadores e afetados pela distrofia muscular progressiva

A distrofia muscular de Duchenne (DMD) é um tipo de distrofia muscular em humanos caracterizada por uma doença genética ligada ao cromossomo X. O cão golden retriever portador da distrofia muscular (GRMD) tem sido intensamente estudado e considerado o modelo mais representativo para a doença observada em humanos. Assim, como forma de verificar anormalidades em órgãos internos nesses animais, foi realizado o exame ultra-sonográfico de 24 cães golden retriever saudáveis, portadores e afetados pela distrofia muscular. O exame ultra-sonográfico do GRMD diagnosticou aumento hepático de moderado a severo, incluindo os vasos hepáticos e seus ramos e aumento de ecogenicidade da vesícula biliar e vesícula urinária. Entretanto, não foram observadas imagens claras de alterações no baço e nos vasos ramos da aorta. A partir disso, acreditamos que o exame ultra-sonográfico constitui-se em um procedimento útil no acesso de órgãos abdominais em cães afetados pela distrofia muscular.

Identification of three distinguishable phenotypes in golden retriever muscular dystrophy

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a human disease characterized by progressive and irreversible skeletal muscle degeneration caused by mutations in genes coding for important muscle proteins. Unfortunately, there is no efficient treatment for this disease; it causes progressive loss of motor and muscular ability until death. The canine model (golden retriever muscular dystrophy) is similar to DMD, showing similar clinical signs. Fifteen dogs were followed from birth and closely observed for clinical signs. Dogs had their disease status confirmed by polymerase chain reaction analysis and genotyping. Clinical observations of musculoskeletal, morphological, gastrointestinal, respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal features allowed us to identify three distinguishable phenotypes in dystrophic dogs: mild (grade I), moderate (grade II) and severe (grade III). These three groups showed no difference in dystrophic alterations of muscle morphology and creatine kinase levels. This information will be useful for therapeutic trials, because DMD also shows significant, inter- and intra-familiar clinical variability. Additionally, being aware of phenotypic differences in this animal model is essential for correct interpretation and understanding of results obtained in pre-clinical trials.

Investigating Giant (Gt) Repression in the Formation of Partially Overlapping Pair-Rule Stripes

Drosophila pair-rule genes are expressed in striped patterns with a precise order of overlap between stripes of different genes. We investigated the role of Giant (Gt) in the regulation of even-skipped, hairy, runt, and fushi tarazu stripes formed in the vicinity of Gt expression domains. In gt null embryos, specific stripes of eve, h, run, and ftz are disrupted. With an ectopic expression system, we verified that stripes affected in the mutant are also repressed. Simultaneously hybridizing gt misxpressing embryos with two pair-rule gene probes, we were able to distinguish differences in the repression of pairs of stripes that overlap extensively. Together, our results showed Gt repression roles in the regulation of two groups of partially overlapping stripes and that Gt morphogen activity is part of the mechanism responsible for the differential positioning of these stripes borders. We discuss the possibility that other factors regulate Gt stripe targets as well. Developmental Dynamics 239:2989-2999, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.