Benchmarking sobre técnicas de otimização para modelos de apoio à decisão na medicina intensiva

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Optimization techniques to detect early ventilation extubation in intensive care units

The decision support models in intensive care units are developed to support medical staff in their decision making process. However, the optimization of these models is particularly difficult to apply due to dynamic, complex and multidisciplinary nature. Thus, there is a constant research and development of new algorithms capable of extracting knowledge from large volumes of data, in order to obtain better predictive results than the current algorithms. To test the optimization techniques a case study with real data provided by INTCare project was explored. This data is concerning to extubation cases. In this dataset, several models like Evolutionary Fuzzy Rule Learning, Lazy Learning, Decision Trees and many others were analysed in order to detect early extubation. The hydrids Decision Trees Genetic Algorithm, Supervised Classifier System and KNNAdaptive obtained the most accurate rate 93.2%, 93.1%, 92.97% respectively, thus showing their feasibility to work in a real environment.

Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

A study on the performance of flexible pavements on mature soil subgrades

The country has witnessed tremendous increase in the vehicle population and increased axle loading pattern during the last decade, leaving its road network overstressed and leading to premature failure. The type of deterioration present in the pavement should be considered for determining whether it has a functional or structural deficiency, so that appropriate overlay type and design can be developed. Structural failure arises from the conditions that adversely affect the load carrying capability of the pavement structure. Inadequate thickness, cracking, distortion and disintegration cause structural deficiency. Functional deficiency arises when the pavement does not provide a smooth riding surface and comfort to the user. This can be due to poor surface friction and texture, hydro planning and splash from wheel path, rutting and excess surface distortion such as potholes, corrugation, faulting, blow up, settlement, heaves etc. Functional condition determines the level of service provided by the facility to its users at a particular time and also the Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC), thus influencing the national economy. Prediction of the pavement deterioration is helpful to assess the remaining effective service life (RSL) of the pavement structure on the basis of reduction in performance levels, and apply various alternative designs and rehabilitation strategies with a long range funding requirement for pavement preservation. In addition, they can predict the impact of treatment on the condition of the sections. The infrastructure prediction models can thus be classified into four groups, namely primary response models, structural performance models, functional performance models and damage models. The factors affecting the deterioration of the roads are very complex in nature and vary from place to place. Hence there is need to have a thorough study of the deterioration mechanism under varied climatic zones and soil conditions before arriving at a definite strategy of road improvement. Realizing the need for a detailed study involving all types of roads in the state with varying traffic and soil conditions, the present study has been attempted. This study attempts to identify the parameters that affect the performance of roads and to develop performance models suitable to Kerala conditions. A critical review of the various factors that contribute to the pavement performance has been presented based on the data collected from selected road stretches and also from five corporations of Kerala. These roads represent the urban conditions as well as National Highways, State Highways and Major District Roads in the sub urban and rural conditions. This research work is a pursuit towards a study of the road condition of Kerala with respect to varying soil, traffic and climatic conditions, periodic performance evaluation of selected roads of representative types and development of distress prediction models for roads of Kerala. In order to achieve this aim, the study is focused into 2 parts. The first part deals with the study of the pavement condition and subgrade soil properties of urban roads distributed in 5 Corporations of Kerala; namely Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Kochi, Thrissur and Kozhikode. From selected 44 roads, 68 homogeneous sections were studied. The data collected on the functional and structural condition of the surface include pavement distress in terms of cracks, potholes, rutting, raveling and pothole patching. The structural strength of the pavement was measured as rebound deflection using Benkelman Beam deflection studies. In order to collect the details of the pavement layers and find out the subgrade soil properties, trial pits were dug and the in-situ field density was found using the Sand Replacement Method. Laboratory investigations were carried out to find out the subgrade soil properties, soil classification, Atterberg limits, Optimum Moisture Content, Field Moisture Content and 4 days soaked CBR. The relative compaction in the field was also determined. The traffic details were also collected by conducting traffic volume count survey and axle load survey. From the data thus collected, the strength of the pavement was calculated which is a function of the layer coefficient and thickness and is represented as Structural Number (SN). This was further related to the CBR value of the soil and the Modified Structural Number (MSN) was found out. The condition of the pavement was represented in terms of the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) which is a function of the distress of the surface at the time of the investigation and calculated in the present study using deduct value method developed by U S Army Corps of Engineers. The influence of subgrade soil type and pavement condition on the relationship between MSN and rebound deflection was studied using appropriate plots for predominant types of soil and for classified value of Pavement Condition Index. The relationship will be helpful for practicing engineers to design the overlay thickness required for the pavement, without conducting the BBD test. Regression analysis using SPSS was done with various trials to find out the best fit relationship between the rebound deflection and CBR, and other soil properties for Gravel, Sand, Silt & Clay fractions. The second part of the study deals with periodic performance evaluation of selected road stretches representing National Highway (NH), State Highway (SH) and Major District Road (MDR), located in different geographical conditions and with varying traffic. 8 road sections divided into 15 homogeneous sections were selected for the study and 6 sets of continuous periodic data were collected. The periodic data collected include the functional and structural condition in terms of distress (pothole, pothole patch, cracks, rutting and raveling), skid resistance using a portable skid resistance pendulum, surface unevenness using Bump Integrator, texture depth using sand patch method and rebound deflection using Benkelman Beam. Baseline data of the study stretches were collected as one time data. Pavement history was obtained as secondary data. Pavement drainage characteristics were collected in terms of camber or cross slope using camber board (slope meter) for the carriage way and shoulders, availability of longitudinal side drain, presence of valley, terrain condition, soil moisture content, water table data, High Flood Level, rainfall data, land use and cross slope of the adjoining land. These data were used for finding out the drainage condition of the study stretches. Traffic studies were conducted, including classified volume count and axle load studies. From the field data thus collected, the progression of each parameter was plotted for all the study roads; and validated for their accuracy. Structural Number (SN) and Modified Structural Number (MSN) were calculated for the study stretches. Progression of the deflection, distress, unevenness, skid resistance and macro texture of the study roads were evaluated. Since the deterioration of the pavement is a complex phenomena contributed by all the above factors, pavement deterioration models were developed as non linear regression models, using SPSS with the periodic data collected for all the above road stretches. General models were developed for cracking progression, raveling progression, pothole progression and roughness progression using SPSS. A model for construction quality was also developed. Calibration of HDM–4 pavement deterioration models for local conditions was done using the data for Cracking, Raveling, Pothole and Roughness. Validation was done using the data collected in 2013. The application of HDM-4 to compare different maintenance and rehabilitation options were studied considering the deterioration parameters like cracking, pothole and raveling. The alternatives considered for analysis were base alternative with crack sealing and patching, overlay with 40 mm BC using ordinary bitumen, overlay with 40 mm BC using Natural Rubber Modified Bitumen and an overlay of Ultra Thin White Topping. Economic analysis of these options was done considering the Life Cycle Cost (LCC). The average speed that can be obtained by applying these options were also compared. The results were in favour of Ultra Thin White Topping over flexible pavements. Hence, Design Charts were also plotted for estimation of maximum wheel load stresses for different slab thickness under different soil conditions. The design charts showed the maximum stress for a particular slab thickness and different soil conditions incorporating different k values. These charts can be handy for a design engineer. Fuzzy rule based models developed for site specific conditions were compared with regression models developed using SPSS. The Riding Comfort Index (RCI) was calculated and correlated with unevenness to develop a relationship. Relationships were developed between Skid Number and Macro Texture of the pavement. The effort made through this research work will be helpful to highway engineers in understanding the behaviour of flexible pavements in Kerala conditions and for arriving at suitable maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. Key Words: Flexible Pavements – Performance Evaluation – Urban Roads – NH – SH and other roads – Performance Models – Deflection – Riding Comfort Index – Skid Resistance – Texture Depth – Unevenness – Ultra Thin White Topping

A neurofuzzy network knowledge extraction and extended gram-Schmidt algorithm for model subspace decomposition

This paper introduces a new neurofuzzy model construction and parameter estimation algorithm from observed finite data sets, based on a Takagi and Sugeno (T-S) inference mechanism and a new extended Gram-Schmidt orthogonal decomposition algorithm, for the modeling of a priori unknown dynamical systems in the form of a set of fuzzy rules. The first contribution of the paper is the introduction of a one to one mapping between a fuzzy rule-base and a model matrix feature subspace using the T-S inference mechanism. This link enables the numerical properties associated with a rule-based matrix subspace, the relationships amongst these matrix subspaces, and the correlation between the output vector and a rule-base matrix subspace, to be investigated and extracted as rule-based knowledge to enhance model transparency. The matrix subspace spanned by a fuzzy rule is initially derived as the input regression matrix multiplied by a weighting matrix that consists of the corresponding fuzzy membership functions over the training data set. Model transparency is explored by the derivation of an equivalence between an A-optimality experimental design criterion of the weighting matrix and the average model output sensitivity to the fuzzy rule, so that rule-bases can be effectively measured by their identifiability via the A-optimality experimental design criterion. The A-optimality experimental design criterion of the weighting matrices of fuzzy rules is used to construct an initial model rule-base. An extended Gram-Schmidt algorithm is then developed to estimate the parameter vector for each rule. This new algorithm decomposes the model rule-bases via an orthogonal subspace decomposition approach, so as to enhance model transparency with the capability of interpreting the derived rule-base energy level. This new approach is computationally simpler than the conventional Gram-Schmidt algorithm for resolving high dimensional regression problems, whereby it is computationally desirable to decompose complex models into a few submodels rather than a single model with large number of input variables and the associated curse of dimensionality problem. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new algorithm.

Estudo de estratégias de otimização para poços de petróleo com elevação por bombeio de cavidades progressivas

The progressing cavity pump artificial lift system, PCP, is a main lift system used in oil production industry. As this artificial lift application grows the knowledge of it s dynamics behavior, the application of automatic control and the developing of equipment selection design specialist systems are more useful. This work presents tools for dynamic analysis, control technics and a specialist system for selecting lift equipments for this artificial lift technology. The PCP artificial lift system consists of a progressing cavity pump installed downhole in the production tubing edge. The pump consists of two parts, a stator and a rotor, and is set in motion by the rotation of the rotor transmitted through a rod string installed in the tubing. The surface equipment generates and transmits the rotation to the rod string. First, is presented the developing of a complete mathematical dynamic model of PCP system. This model is simplified for use in several conditions, including steady state for sizing PCP equipments, like pump, rod string and drive head. This model is used to implement a computer simulator able to help in system analysis and to operates as a well with a controller and allows testing and developing of control algorithms. The next developing applies control technics to PCP system to optimize pumping velocity to achieve productivity and durability of downhole components. The mathematical model is linearized to apply conventional control technics including observability and controllability of the system and develop design rules for PI controller. Stability conditions are stated for operation point of the system. A fuzzy rule-based control system are developed from a PI controller using a inference machine based on Mandami operators. The fuzzy logic is applied to develop a specialist system that selects PCP equipments too. The developed technics to simulate and the linearized model was used in an actual well where a control system is installed. This control system consists of a pump intake pressure sensor, an industrial controller and a variable speed drive. The PI control was applied and fuzzy controller was applied to optimize simulated and actual well operation and the results was compared. The simulated and actual open loop response was compared to validate simulation. A case study was accomplished to validate equipment selection specialist system

Risk prediction for weed infestation using classification rules

This paper proposes a fuzzy classification system for the risk of infestation by weeds in agricultural zones considering the variability of weeds. The inputs of the system are features of the infestation extracted from estimated maps by kriging for the weed seed production and weed coverage, and from the competitiveness, inferred from narrow and broad-leaved weeds. Furthermore, a Bayesian network classifier is used to extract rules from data which are compared to the fuzzy rule set obtained on the base of specialist knowledge. Results for the risk inference in a maize crop field are presented and evaluated by the estimated yield loss. © 2009 IEEE.

Diseño de nuevas técnicas evolutivas para videojuegos de lucha

El objetivo de esta tesis fin de máster es la construcción mediante técnicas evolutivas de bases de conocimiento con reglas difusas para desarrollar un sistema autónomo que sea capaz de jugar con destreza a un videojuego de lucha en 2D. El uso de la lógica difusa permite manejar imprecisión, la cual está implícita en las variables de entrada al sistema y favorece la comprensión a nivel humano del comportamiento general del controlador. Se ha diseñado, para obtener la base de conocimiento que permita al sistema tomar las decisiones adecuadas durante el combate, un nuevo operador para algoritmos evolutivos. Se ha observado que la programación genética guiada por gramáticas (PGGG) muestra un sesgo debido al cruce que se suele emplear para obtener nuevos individuos en el proceso evolutivo. Para solventar este problema, se propone el método de sedimentación, capaz de evitar la tendencia que tiene la PGGG a generar bases de conocimiento con pocas reglas, de forma independiente a la gramática. Este método se inspira en la sedimentación que se produce en el fondo de los lechos marinos y permite obtener un sustrato de reglas óptimas que forman la solución final una vez que converge el algoritmo.---ABSTRACT---The objective of this thesis is the construction by evolutionary techniques of fuzzy rule-base system to develop an autonomous controller capable of playing a 2D fighting game. The use of fuzzy logic handles imprecision, which is implicit in the input variables of the system and makes the behavior of the controller easier to understand by humans. A new operator for evolutionary algorithms is designed to obtain the knowledge base that allows the system to take appropriate decision during combat. It has been observed that the grammar guided genetic programming (GGGP) shows a bias due to the crossing that is often used for obtaining new individuals in the evolutionary process. To solve this problem, the sedimentation method, able to avoid the tendency of the PGGG to generate knowledge bases with few rules, independently of the grammar is proposed. This method is inspired by the sedimentation that occurs on the bottom of the seabed and creates an optimal rules substrate that ends on the final solution once the algorithm converges.

Desenvolvimento de um ambiente para projeto de controladores fuzzy para dispositivos móveis

Fuzzy intelligent systems are present in a variety of equipment ranging from household appliances to Fuzzy intelligent systems are present in a variety of equipment ranging from household appliances to small devices such as digital cameras and cell phones being used primarily for dealing with the uncertainties in the modeling of real systems. However, commercial implementations of Fuzzy systems are not general purpose and do not have portability to different hardware platforms. Thinking about these issues this work presents the implementation of an open source development environment that consists of a desktop system capable of generate Graphically a general purpose Fuzzy controller and export these parameters for an embedded system with a Fuzzy controller written in Java Platform Micro Edition To (J2ME), whose modular design makes it portable to any mobile device that supports J2ME. Thus, the proposed development platform is capable of generating all the parameters of a Fuzzy controller and export it in XML file, and the code responsible for the control logic that is embedded in the mobile device is able to read this file and start the controller. All the parameters of a Fuzzy controller are configurable using the desktop system, since the membership functions and rule base, even the universe of discourse of the linguistic terms of output variables. This system generates Fuzzy controllers for the interpolation model of Takagi-Sugeno. As the validation process and testing of the proposed solution the Fuzzy controller was embedded on the mobile device Sun SPOT ® and used to control a plant-level Quanser®, and to compare the Fuzzy controller generated by the system with other types of controllers was implemented and embedded in sun spot a PID controller to control the same level plant of Quanser®

Adding similarity-based reasoning capabilities to a Horn fragment of possibilistic logic with fuzzy constants

PLFC is a first-order possibilistic logic dealing with fuzzy constants and fuzzily restricted quantifiers. The refutation proof method in PLFC is mainly based on a generalized resolution rule which allows an implicit graded unification among fuzzy constants. However, unification for precise object constants is classical. In order to use PLFC for similarity-based reasoning, in this paper we extend a Horn-rule sublogic of PLFC with similarity-based unification of object constants. The Horn-rule sublogic of PLFC we consider deals only with disjunctive fuzzy constants and it is equipped with a simple and efficient version of PLFC proof method. At the semantic level, it is extended by equipping each sort with a fuzzy similarity relation, and at the syntactic level, by fuzzily “enlarging” each non-fuzzy object constant in the antecedent of a Horn-rule by means of a fuzzy similarity relation.

Semantic and fuzzy modelling for human behaviour recognition in smart spaces : a case study on ambient assisted living.

Human activity recognition in everyday environments is a critical, but challenging task in Ambient Intelligence applications to achieve proper Ambient Assisted Living, and key challenges still remain to be dealt with to realize robust methods. One of the major limitations of the Ambient Intelligence systems today is the lack of semantic models of those activities on the environment, so that the system can recognize the speci c activity being performed by the user(s) and act accordingly. In this context, this thesis addresses the general problem of knowledge representation in Smart Spaces. The main objective is to develop knowledge-based models, equipped with semantics to learn, infer and monitor human behaviours in Smart Spaces. Moreover, it is easy to recognize that some aspects of this problem have a high degree of uncertainty, and therefore, the developed models must be equipped with mechanisms to manage this type of information. A fuzzy ontology and a semantic hybrid system are presented to allow modelling and recognition of a set of complex real-life scenarios where vagueness and uncertainty are inherent to the human nature of the users that perform it. The handling of uncertain, incomplete and vague data (i.e., missing sensor readings and activity execution variations, since human behaviour is non-deterministic) is approached for the rst time through a fuzzy ontology validated on real-time settings within a hybrid data-driven and knowledgebased architecture. The semantics of activities, sub-activities and real-time object interaction are taken into consideration. The proposed framework consists of two main modules: the low-level sub-activity recognizer and the high-level activity recognizer. The rst module detects sub-activities (i.e., actions or basic activities) that take input data directly from a depth sensor (Kinect). The main contribution of this thesis tackles the second component of the hybrid system, which lays on top of the previous one, in a superior level of abstraction, and acquires the input data from the rst module's output, and executes ontological inference to provide users, activities and their in uence in the environment, with semantics. This component is thus knowledge-based, and a fuzzy ontology was designed to model the high-level activities. Since activity recognition requires context-awareness and the ability to discriminate among activities in di erent environments, the semantic framework allows for modelling common-sense knowledge in the form of a rule-based system that supports expressions close to natural language in the form of fuzzy linguistic labels. The framework advantages have been evaluated with a challenging and new public dataset, CAD-120, achieving an accuracy of 90.1% and 91.1% respectively for low and high-level activities. This entails an improvement over both, entirely data-driven approaches, and merely ontology-based approaches. As an added value, for the system to be su ciently simple and exible to be managed by non-expert users, and thus, facilitate the transfer of research to industry, a development framework composed by a programming toolbox, a hybrid crisp and fuzzy architecture, and graphical models to represent and con gure human behaviour in Smart Spaces, were developed in order to provide the framework with more usability in the nal application. As a result, human behaviour recognition can help assisting people with special needs such as in healthcare, independent elderly living, in remote rehabilitation monitoring, industrial process guideline control, and many other cases. This thesis shows use cases in these areas.

Fusion of infrared polarization and intensity images using support value transform and fuzzy combination rules

Infrared polarization and intensity imagery provide complementary and discriminative information in image understanding and interpretation. In this paper, a novel fusion method is proposed by effectively merging the information with various combination rules. It makes use of both low-frequency and highfrequency images components from support value transform (SVT), and applies fuzzy logic in the combination process. Images (both infrared polarization and intensity images) to be fused are firstly decomposed into low-frequency component images and support value image sequences by the SVT. Then the low-frequency component images are combined using a fuzzy combination rule blending three sub-combination methods of (1) region feature maximum, (2) region feature weighting average, and (3) pixel value maximum; and the support value image sequences are merged using a fuzzy combination rule fusing two sub-combination methods of (1) pixel energy maximum and (2) region feature weighting. With the variables of two newly defined features, i.e. the low-frequency difference feature for low-frequency component images and the support-value difference feature for support value image sequences, trapezoidal membership functions are proposed and developed in tuning the fuzzy fusion process. Finally the fused image is obtained by inverse SVT operations. Experimental results of visual inspection and quantitative evaluation both indicate the superiority of the proposed method to its counterparts in image fusion of infrared polarization and intensity images.

Simulation of active control using fuzzy logic applied to a pulse combustor

This work analyzes an active fuzzy logic control system in a Rijke type pulse combustor. During the system development, a study of the existing types of control for pulse combustion was carried out and a simulation model was implemented to be used with the package Matlab and Simulink. Blocks which were not available in the simulator library were developed. A fuzzy controller was developed and its membership functions and inference rules were established. The obtained simulation showed that fuzzy logic is viable in the control of combustion instabilities. The obtained results indicated that the control system responded to pulses in an efficient and desirable way. It was verified that the system needed approximately 0.2 s to increase the tube internal pressure from 30 to 90 mbar, with an assumed total delay of 2 ms. The effects of delay variation were studied. Convergence was always obtained and general performance was not affected by the delay. The controller sends a pressure signal in phase with the Rijke tube internal pressure signal, through the speakers, when an increase the oscillations pressure amplitude is desired. On the other hand, when a decrease of the tube internal pressure amplitude is desired, the controller sends a signal 180° out of phase.

Fuzzy logic to predict thermal damages of ground parts

One of the critical problems in implementing an intelligent grinding process is the automatic detection of workpiece surface burn. This work uses fuzzy logic as a tool to classify and predict burn levels in the grinding process. Based on acoustic emission signals, cutting power, and the mean-value deviance (MVD), linguistic rules were established for the various burn situations (slight, intermediate, severe) by applying fuzzy logic using the Matlab Toolbox. Three practical fuzzy system models were developed. The first model with two inputs resulted only in a simple analysis process. The second and third models have an additional MVD statistic input, associating information and precision. These two models differ from each other in terms of the rule base developed. The three developed models presented valid responses, proving effective, accurate, reliable and easy to use for the determination of ground workpiece burn. In this analysis, fuzzy logic translates the operator's human experience associated with powerful computational methods.