Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation

In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

A fuzzy multi-criteria decision approach for enhanced auto-tracking of seismic events

The main activity carried out by the geophysicist when interpreting seismic data, in terms of both importance and time spent is tracking (or picking) seismic events. in practice, this activity turns out to be rather challenging, particularly when the targeted event is interrupted by discontinuities such as geological faults or exhibits lateral changes in seismic character. In recent years, several automated schemes, known as auto-trackers, have been developed to assist the interpreter in this tedious and time-consuming task. The automatic tracking tool available in modem interpretation software packages often employs artificial neural networks (ANN's) to identify seismic picks belonging to target events through a pattern recognition process. The ability of ANNs to track horizons across discontinuities largely depends on how reliably data patterns characterise these horizons. While seismic attributes are commonly used to characterise amplitude peaks forming a seismic horizon, some researchers in the field claim that inherent seismic information is lost in the attribute extraction process and advocate instead the use of raw data (amplitude samples). This paper investigates the performance of ANNs using either characterisation methods, and demonstrates how the complementarity of both seismic attributes and raw data can be exploited in conjunction with other geological information in a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to achieve an enhanced auto-tracking performance.

A web based decision support system for status assessment in advanced parkinson

The purpose of this work is to develop a web based decision support system, based onfuzzy logic, to assess the motor state of Parkinson patients on their performance in onscreenmotor tests in a test battery on a hand computer. A set of well defined rules, basedon an expert’s knowledge, were made to diagnose the current state of the patient. At theend of a period, an overall score is calculated which represents the overall state of thepatient during the period. Acceptability of the rules is based on the absolute differencebetween patient’s own assessment of his condition and the diagnosed state. Anyinconsistency can be tracked by highlighted as an alert in the system. Graphicalpresentation of data aims at enhanced analysis of patient’s state and performancemonitoring by the clinic staff. In general, the system is beneficial for the clinic staff,patients, project managers and researchers.

Identificação não linear usando uma rede fuzzy wavelet neural network modificada

In last decades, neural networks have been established as a major tool for the identification of nonlinear systems. Among the various types of networks used in identification, one that can be highlighted is the wavelet neural network (WNN). This network combines the characteristics of wavelet multiresolution theory with learning ability and generalization of neural networks usually, providing more accurate models than those ones obtained by traditional networks. An extension of WNN networks is to combine the neuro-fuzzy ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System) structure with wavelets, leading to generate the Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network - FWNN structure. This network is very similar to ANFIS networks, with the difference that traditional polynomials present in consequent of this network are replaced by WNN networks. This paper proposes the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems from a network FWNN modified. In the proposed structure, functions only wavelets are used in the consequent. Thus, it is possible to obtain a simplification of the structure, reducing the number of adjustable parameters of the network. To evaluate the performance of network FWNN with this modification, an analysis of network performance is made, verifying advantages, disadvantages and cost effectiveness when compared to other existing FWNN structures in literature. The evaluations are carried out via the identification of two simulated systems traditionally found in the literature and a real nonlinear system, consisting of a nonlinear multi section tank. Finally, the network is used to infer values of temperature and humidity inside of a neonatal incubator. The execution of such analyzes is based on various criteria, like: mean squared error, number of training epochs, number of adjustable parameters, the variation of the mean square error, among others. The results found show the generalization ability of the modified structure, despite the simplification performed

Sistema para detecção e diagnóstico de falhas em motores elétricos de indução utilizando lógica fuzzy

Induction motors are one of the most important equipment of modern industry. However, in many situations, are subject to inadequate conditions as high temperatures and pressures, load variations and constant vibrations, for example. Such conditions, leaving them more susceptible to failures, either external or internal in nature, unwanted in the industrial process. In this context, predictive maintenance plays an important role, where the detection and diagnosis of faults in a timely manner enables the increase of time of the engine and the possibiity of reducing costs, caused mainly by stopping the production and corrective maintenance the motor itself. In this juncture, this work proposes the design of a system that is able to detect and diagnose faults in induction motors, from the collection of electrical line voltage and current, and also the measurement of engine speed. This information will use as input to a fuzzy inference system based on rules that find and classify a failure from the variation of thess quantities

A fuzzy logic system applied in lightning models

This paper describes a novel approach for mapping lightning processes using fuzzy logic. The estimation process is carried out using a fuzzy system based on Sugeno's architecture. Simulation results confirm that proposed approach can be efficiently used in these types of problem.

Multivalued adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller for robot vehicle - art. no. 1406

Robotic vehicle navigation in unstructured and uncertain environments is still a challenge. This paper presents the implementation of a multivalued neurofuzzy controller for autonomous ground vehicle (AGVs) in indoor environments. The control system consists of a hierarchy of mobile robot using multivalued adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system behaviors.

A controller design used in Lorenz synchronization chaotic system for secure communication based on LMI fuzzy control system

This paper describes a mathematical study about chaotic system and about the unified approach of chaos control via fuzzy control system based in Linear Matrix Inequality to design a controller which synchronizes the transmission/reception system. This system, that was based in Lorenz chaotic circuit, can be used for transmit signals in secure way.

Development of a water quality index using a fuzzy logic: A case study for the sorocaba river

Due to growing urbanization and industrialization, the environment is suffering from pollution of rivers, degradation of soils and deteriorated air quality. Quality indices appear to be useful to evaluate the conditions of these media. The aim of this study was the development of a water quality index using a fuzzy inference system, since such an approach has proved advantageous in addressing problems that are subjective by nature or for which the data are uncertain. The methodology employed was based on this inference system, and considered the nine water quality parameters employed by CETESB (Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental, São Paulo, Brazil) to evaluate water quality. After assessment of the data using the index, a comparison was made with the WQI (Water Quality Index), which is used for the monitoring of various water bodies, including in the study region. The results obtained using the index developed on the basis of fuzzy inference were found to be more useful than those derived from the method currently used by CETESB, since losses and/or omissions concerning individual parameters were minimized. © 2010 IEEE.

Metodologia para diagnosticar a qualidade de energia elétrica referente à distorção harmônica em sistema trifásico de baixa tensão utilizando lógica fuzzy

Este trabalho ressalta a importância de monitorar e diagnosticar a qualidade de energia elétrica sob a ótica das distorções harmônicas presente nas instalações elétricas em sistema trifásico de baixa tensão através de uma proposta metodológica para analisar e diagnosticar o nível dos distúrbios harmônico avaliando o indicador total de distorção harmônica (THD), apoiado por um sistema especialista baseado em um sistema de inferência Fuzzy.

Aumento da produtividade: utilizando a metodologia Six Sigma e Lógica Fuzzy, um estudo de caso em uma empresa do Pólo Industrial de Manaus – PIM

Este trabalho utiliza a metodologia six sigma com o objetivo de aumentar a produtividade da Linha de LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) em uma fábrica do Pólo Industrial de Manaus - PIM e um sistema de inferência fuzzy para mensurar o aumento dessa produtividade, onde foram identificados vários parâmetros baseados na metodologia six sigma. Dentre os quais, conforme grau de relevância dos especialistas deste estudo, pode-se destacar: desperdícios, capacidade produtiva e estudo de tempos. Ressaltando ainda que o sistema proposto seja de grande importância para profissionais e pesquisadores da gestão da produção, os quais desejam resultados que reduzam custos e conseqüentemente aumente os lucros da organização.

Desenvolvimento de aplicações em medicina e agronomia utilizando lógica fuzzy e neuro fuzzy

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Estimativa da produtividade de trigo em função da adubação nitrogenada utilizando modelagem neuro fuzzy

Currently new techniques for data processing, such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and hybrid systems are used to develop predictive models of complex systems and to estimate the desired parameters. In this article the use of an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system was investigated to estimate the productivity of wheat, using a database of combination of the following treatments: five N doses (0, 50, 100, 150 and 200 kg ha(-1)), three sources (Entec, ammonium sulfate and urea), two application times of N (at sowing or at side-dressing) and two wheat cultivars (IAC 370 and E21), that were evaluated during two years in Selviria, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Through the input and output data, the system of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference learns, and then can estimate a new value of wheat yield with different N doses. The productivity prediciton error of wheat in function of five N doses, using a neuro fuzzy system, was smaller than that one obtained with a quadratic approximation. The results show that the neuro fuzzy system is a viable prediction model for estimating the wheat yield in function of N doses.

Estimação do risco de morte de recém-nascidos utilizando logica fuzzy tipo-2 intervalar

The main objective of the presented study is the development of a predictive interval type-2 fuzzy inference system in order to estimate the mortality risk for a newborn, to be used as an auxiliary tool for decision making in medical centers where there is a lack of professionals for this purpose and, afterwards, to compare its performance to a type-1 fuzzy system. The input variables were chosen due to their acquisition ‘simplicity, not involving any invasive tests, such as blood tests or other specific tests. The variables are easily obtained in the first few minutes of life: birth weight, gestational age at delivery, 5-minute Apgar score and previous report of stillbirth. Databases from the DATASUS were used to validate the model. 1351 records from the city of São José dos Campos, a mid-sized city in the São Paulo state’s countryside, were considered in this study. Finally, an analysis using the ROC curve was performed to estimate the model’s accuracy