Emerging agricultural hydrology problems in post-conflict Libya

This paper develops a conceptual framework for analyzing emerging agricultural hydrology problems in post-conflict Libya. Libya is one of the most arid regions on the planet. Thus, as well as substantial political and social changes, post-conflict Libyan administrators are confronted with important hydrological issues in Libya’s emerging water-landuse complex. This paper presents a substantial background to the water-land-use problem in Libya; reviews previous work in Libya and elsewhere on water-land-use issues and water-land-use conflicts in the dry and arid zones; outlines a conceptual framework for fruitful research interventions; and details the results of a survey conducted on Libyan farmers’ water usage, perceptions of emerging water-land-use conflicts and the appropriate value one should place on agricultural-use hydrological resources in Libya. Extensions are discussed.

Paisajismo sustentable en zonas áridas : especies útiles para parquizaciones xéricas

Se analiza el valor económico, ecológico y paisajístico de especies vegetales, pertenecientes a la flora espontánea de Mendoza (Argentina), resistentes a la sequía y que pueden alcanzar porte arbóreo. Su empleo ahorra agua de riego en espacios verdes ornamentales y de protección ambiental. Se sugiere medidas de conservación de las especies espontáneas más útiles paisajísticamente, así como normas generales sobre métodos de plantación y mantenimiento. Se recomiendan especies leñosas espontáneas de la provincia, de bajo requerimiento hídrico, utilizables paisajísticamente.

Biomarkers, stable carbon isotope record and pollen distribution of the soutwest African continental margin

This is part 2 of a study examining southwest African continental margin sediments from nine sites on a north-south transect from the Congo Fan (4°S) to the Cape Basin (30°S) representing two glacial (MIS 2 and 6a) and two interglacial stages (MIS 1 and 5e). Contents, distribution patterns, and molecular stable carbon isotope signatures of long-chain n-alkanes (C27-C33) and n-alkanols (C22-C32) as indicators of land plant vegetation of different biosynthetic types were correlated with concentrations and distributions of pollen taxa in sediments of the same time horizons. Selected single pollen type data reveal details of vegetation changes, but the overall picture is best illustrated by summing pollen known to predominantly derive from C4 plants or C4 plus CAM plants. The C4 plant signals in the biomarkers are recorded in the delta13C data and in the abundances of C31 and C33 n-alkanes, and the C32 n-alkanol. Calculated clusters of wind trajectories for austral summer and winter situations for the Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum afford information on the source areas for the lipids and pollen and their transport pathways to the ocean. This multidisciplinary approach provides clear evidence of latitudinal differences in leaf wax lipid and pollen composition, with the Holocene sedimentary data paralleling the current major phytogeographic zonations. The northern sites (Congo Fan area and northern Angola Basin) get most of their terrestrial material from the Congo Basin and the Angolan highlands dominated by C3 plants. Airborne particulates derived from the western and central South African hinterland dominated by deserts, semideserts, and savannah regions are rich in organic matter from C4 plants. As can be expected from the present and glacial positions of the phytogeographic zones, the carbon isotopic signatures of n-alkanes and n-alkanols both become isotopically more enriched in 13C from north to south. In the northern part of the transect the relative importance of C4 plant indicators is higher during the glacials than in the interglacials, indicating a northward extension of arid zones favoring grass vegetation. In the south, where grass-rich vegetation merges into semidesert and desert, the difference in C4 plant indicators is small.

RESPONSE OF LOCALLY ADAPTED PEARL MILLET POPULATIONS TO S1 PROGENY RECURRENT SELECTION FOR GRAIN YIELD AND RESISTANCE TO RUST

In the semi-arid zones of Uganda, pearl millet ( Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.) is mainly grown for food and income; but rust (Puccinia substriata var indica (L.) R. Br.) is the main foliar constraint lowering yield. The objective of the study was to genetically improve grain yield and rust resistance of two locally adapted populations (Lam and Omoda), through two cycles of modified phenotypic S1 progeny recurrent selection. Treatments included three cycles of two locally adapted pearl millet populations, evaluated at three locations. Significant net genetic gain for grain yield (72 and 36%) were achieved in Lam and Omoda populations, respectively. This led to grain yield of 1,047 from 611 kg ha-1 in Lam population and 943 from 693 kg ha-1 in Omoda population. Significant improvement in rust resistance was achieved in the two populations, with a net genetic gain of -55 and -71% in Lam and Omoda populations, respectively. Rust severity reduced from 30 to 14% in Lam population and from 57 to 17% in Omoda population. Net positive genetic gains of 68 and 8% were also achieved for 1000-grain weight in Lam and Omoda, respectively. Traits with a net negative genetic gain in both populations were days to 50% flowering, days to 50% anthesis, days to 50% physiological maturity, flower-anthesis interval, plant height and leaf area.

Effect of clearing native forest (Caatinga) strips on some hydrologic components of micro-watersheds.

The influences of clearing native vegetation (Caatinga) in contour strips at 25 cm vertical interval on evaporation losses in cleared strips, annual runoff efficiency and annuall soil loss on gently sloped micro-waterheds in the arid zones of Northeast Brazil are reported. The alternate native vegetation (Caatinga) strips function very effectively as windbreaks thus reducing evaporation losses substantially in the leeward cleared strips. The runoff measured at the micro-watershed with cleared strips was many-fold lower than the runoff obtained at a completely denuded watershed even when it was protected by narrow based channel terraces. However, the annual runoff efficiency can be significantly increased in a strip cleared watershed if narrow based channel terraces are provided on the lower side of cleared strips. The annual soil losses in strip cleared watersheds as well as completely denuded waterhed of gentle slopes were negligible. Thus clearing land in alternate contour strips on a micro-watersheds shall substantially improve crop water use efficiency without creating any significant erosion problems. Additionally this treatment will increase runoff for water harvesting for irrigation purposes.

Composição botânica e qualidade do pasto selecionado por ovelhas em caatinga raleada e enriquecida.

Resumo: O presente estudo foi conduzido com o objetivo de determinar a composição botânica e a qualidade da dieta selecionada por ovelhas, através da técnica de micro-histologia fecal, em caatinga raleada e enriquecida com capim massai (Panicum maximum cv. Massai), recebendo diferentes quantidades de concentrado (0; 200; 350 e 500 g de concentrado por dia), e em diferentes períodos do ano (águas, transição água-seca e seca). Foram estimados também o consumo e digestibilidade dos nutrientes, bem como a degradabilidade de espécies forrageiras ingeridas pelas ovelhas. Os experimentos foram realizados na Fazenda Crioula do Meio, pertencente a Embrapa Caprinos e Ovinos em Sobral, CE no período de março a novembro de 2013. No Experimento 1, para a determinação da composição botânica e qualidade da dieta selecionada, foram utilizadas dezesseis ovelhas Somalis brasileira, gestantes, multíparas e peso médio de 30,58+2,48 kg. O acompanhamento da ingestão do pasto pelas ovelhas foi feito em três períodos (águas, transição água-seca e seca), referentes aos meses de abril, junho e agosto de 2013, respectivamente. Amostras das plantas foram coletadas para o preparo das lâminas de referência, e posterior identificação e caracterização dos descritores epidérmicos. O mesmo foi feito para as fezes coletadas nas ovelhas. Com base na proporção de cada espécie identificada nas lâminas fecais que compuseram a dieta, e na composição química das forrageiras identificadas, foi possível determinar a qualidade da dieta ingerida. De 76 espécies observadas no pasto, 33 foram identificadas na dieta das ovelhas, destacando as espécies sabiá (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia), centrosema (Centrosema sp.), ervanço (Alternanthera brasiliana), massai (Panicum maximum cv Massai) e paco-paco (Wissadula rostrata) como as mais selecionadas pelos animais ao longo dos períodos, chegando a compor mais de 50% da dieta selecionada. Com a chegada do período seco, espécies indesejáveis como o marmeleiro (Croton sonderianus) e o mofumbo (Combretum lepreosum), também fizeram parte das plantas selecionadas. Quanto ao valor nutritivo da dieta selecionada, os animais selecionaram uma dieta com valor nutritivo superior ao amostrado no pasto. No Experimento 2, na mesma condição do experimento anterior, trinta e duas ovelhas Somalis brasileira foram utilizadas para determinação do consumo e digestibilidade dos nutrientes, realizado em três ensaios (abril - terço final de gestação; junho - lactação e agosto - desmame). Para predição do consumo, o indicador LIPE® foi utilizado. Pesagens quinzenais foram realizadas para avaliação do desempenho das ovelhas e dos cordeiros nascidos. O concentrado oferecido favoreceu a maior ingestão e digestibilidade da MS e PB, com efeito substitutivo em relação ao consumo de pasto (P<0,05). Para o período seco, menores consumos foram observados em relação aos períodos das águas e de transição água-seca (P<0,05). Maiores consumos e digestibilidades dos constituintes fibrosos foram observados para as ovelhas não suplementados (P<0,05). Na avaliação do desempenho, a suplementação oferecida determinou os maiores pesos verificados durante a lactação, ao desmame e para os pesos ao nascer e ao desmame dos cordeiros (P<0,05). No Experimento 3, dois ovinos Morada Nova foram utilizados para determinação da degradabilidade da matéria seca (MS), proteína bruta (PB) e fibra em detergente neutro (FDN) de cinco das forrageiras selecionadas pelas ovelhas no Experimento 1: M. caesalpiniaefolia, A. brasiliana, P. maximum cv. Massai, jurema-preta (Mimosa tenuiflora), C. leprosum, nos tempos 0, 6, 24, 48, 72 e 96 horas de incubação. Para cada forrageira, foram determinadas equações para o desaparecimento da MS, PB e FDN. Também foi feito o fracionamento da proteína em suas porções degradáveis e não degradáveis no rúmen. Foi observado maior desaparecimento da MS, PB e FDN, além dos melhores níveis de proteína efetivamente degradada no rúmen para A. brasiliana, seguido pelo P. maximum cv. Massai e M. caesalpiniaefolia. Com as informações obtidas, conclui-se que a micro-histologia fecal apresenta-se como uma técnica viável para avaliações da composição botânica da dieta selecionada por ovinos na caatinga. Ovelhas na caatinga possuem uma grande habilidade de selecionar a dieta, modificando-a ao longo das fases fenológicas, sempre na tentativa de estabelecer uma dieta com melhor valor nutritivo. Forrageiras como A. brasiliana, M. caesalpiniaefolia e o P. maximum cv. Massai, podem ser consideradas um interessante recurso alimentar, em virtude de seu valor nutricional e aproveitamento por ovelhas criadas na caatinga. Abstract: This study was conducted in order to determine the botanical composition and diet quality selected by sheep through fecal micro-histological technique, in thinned and enriched caatinga with Massai grass (Panicum maximum cv Massai.), receiving different amounts of concentrate (0; 200; 350 and 500 g of concentrate per day) at different periods (wet, transition wet-dry and dry). Were also estimated the intake, digestibility, as well as the degradability of forage species eaten by sheep. The experiments were performed in the "Fazenda Crioula do Meio", owned by Embrapa Goats and Sheep, in Sobral, Ceará State, Brazil, from march to november 2013. In Trial 1, sixteen female, pregnant, multiparous, with average body weight of 30,58+2,48 kg Somalis brasileira breed sheep were used to determine the botanical composition and the quality of the selected diet. The monitoring of pasture intake of sheep were conducted in three phenological periods of the caatinga's pasture (wet season, transition wet-dry and dry season). Plant samples were collected for the preparation of the reference slides, with subsequent identification and characterization of epidermal descriptors. The same was done for the feces collected in sheep. Considering the proportion of each species identified in fecal slides which composed the diet, and the chemical composition of forage identified, it was possible to determine the quality of the selected diet. From 76 species observed in the pasture, 33 species was identified in the sheep selected diet, emphasizing the Sabiá (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia), centrosema (Centrosema sp.), ervanço (Alternanthera brasiliana), massai (Panicum maximum cv Massai) e paco-paco (Wissadula rostrata) as the most selected species by sheep during the study, composing more than 50% of the selected diet. In the Dry Season, undesirable species like marmeleiro (Croton sonderianus) and mofumbo (Combretum leprosum), were also constituent of the diet. Regarding to the nutritional value of selected diet, the sheep selected a diet with more protein than the sampled in the pasture. In the final late gestation, the sheep without supplementation ate a diet above 16% of CP, higher than the selected diet by treatments 350 and 500 g of concentrate per day (P<0.05). Were also observed to the non supplemented sheep, less fiber content intake (P<0.05). In the Trial 2, in the same condition of the first Trial, thirty two Somalis brasileira female sheep were used to determine the intake and digestibility, conducted in three assays (April - third late pregnancy; June - lactation and August - weaning). To predict the intake, the marker LIPE was used. Sheep and lambs were weighted every two weeks to performance evaluation. The concentrate offered to sheep favored to higher intake and digestibility of DM and CP than non supplemented sheep, with inverse relationship to the pasture intake (P<0.05). For the Dry Season, lower intake were observed than for Wet Season and Transition Wet-Dry (P<0.05). Higher intakes and digestibility of the fiber constituents were verified to non supplemented sheep (P<0.05). To performance evaluation, the offered supplementation determined the higher weights observed during lactation and weaning of sheep, and to birth and weaning weights of lambs (P<0.05). In Trial 3, two male sheep were used to determine the degradability of dry matter (DM), crude protein (CP) and neutral detergent fiber (NDF) of five forages selected by sheep in Trial 1: M. caesalpiniaefolia, A. brasiliana, P. maximum cv. Massai, jurema-preta (Mimosa tenuiflora) and C. lepreosum, at zero, 6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours of incubation. For each forage, were determined equations for the disappearance of DM, CP and NDF. It was also realized the protein fractions in their degradable and non-degradable in the rumen parts. Was detected a higher disappearance of DM, CP and NDF, as also better proportion of the rumen degradable protein to A. brasiliana, followed by P. maximum cv. Massai and M. caesalpiniaefolia. With the information obtained, it is concluded that the fecal micro histological technique presents as a viable technique to evaluate the selected diet by sheep in caatinga's pasture. On this pasture, the sheep are skilled to select the diet, changing during the phenological phases, trying to form a diet of better nutritive value. Forages as A. brasiliana, P. maximum cv. Massai and M. caesalpiniaefolia, can be considered an interesting food source to ewes kept in the caatinga.

Integration of remote sensing and GIS for modelling flash floods in Wadi Hudain catchment, Egypt

This paper presents a new approach to modelling flash floods in dryland catchments by integrating remote sensing and digital elevation model (DEM) data in a geographical information system (GIS). The spectral reflectance of channels affected by recent flash floods exhibit a marked increase, due to the deposition of fine sediments in these channels as the flood recedes. This allows the parts of a catchment that have been affected by a recent flood event to be discriminated from unaffected parts, using a time series of Landsat images. Using images of the Wadi Hudain catchment in southern Egypt, the hillslope areas contributing flow were inferred for different flood events. The SRTM3 DEM was used to derive flow direction, flow length, active channel cross-sectional areas and slope. The Manning Equation was used to estimate the channel flow velocities, and hence the time-area zones of the catchment. A channel reach that was active during a 1985 runoff event, that does not receive any tributary flow, was used to estimate a transmission loss rate of 7·5 mm h−1, given the maximum peak discharge estimate. Runoff patterns resulting from different flood events are quite variable; however the southern part of the catchment appears to have experienced more floods during the period of study (1984–2000), perhaps because the bedrock hillslopes in this area are more effective at runoff production than other parts of the catchment which are underlain by unconsolidated Quaternary sands and gravels. Due to high transmission loss, runoff generated within the upper reaches is rarely delivered to the alluvial fan and Shalateen city situated at the catchment outlet. The synthetic GIS-based time area zones, on their own, cannot be relied on to model the hydrographs reliably; physical parameters, such as rainfall intensity, distribution, and transmission loss, must also be considered.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

Casualties distribution in human and natural hazards

Catastrophic events, such as wars and terrorist attacks, big tornadoes and hurricanes, huge earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and landslides, are always accompanied by a large number of casualties. The size distribution of these casualties have separately been shown to follow approximate power law (PL) distributions. In this paper, we analyze the number of victims of catastrophic phenomena, in particular, terrorism, and find double PL behavior. This means that the data set is better approximated by two PLs instead of one. We have plotted the two PL parameters corresponding to all terrorist events occurred in every year, from 1980 to 2010. We observe an interesting pattern in the chart, where the lines, that connect each pair of points defining the double PLs, are roughly aligned to each other.

Flood resilient housing recovery models: a theoretical case study in Maldives

Natural disasters are events that cause general and widespread destruction of the built environment and are becoming increasingly recurrent. They are a product of vulnerability and community exposure to natural hazards, generating a multitude of social, economic and cultural issues of which the loss of housing and the subsequent need for shelter is one of its major consequences. Nowadays, numerous factors contribute to increased vulnerability and exposure to natural disasters such as climate change with its impacts felt across the globe and which is currently seen as a worldwide threat to the built environment. The abandonment of disaster-affected areas can also push populations to regions where natural hazards are felt more severely. Although several actors in the post-disaster scenario provide for shelter needs and recovery programs, housing is often inadequate and unable to resist the effects of future natural hazards. Resilient housing is commonly not addressed due to the urgency in sheltering affected populations. However, by neglecting risks of exposure in construction, houses become vulnerable and are likely to be damaged or destroyed in future natural hazard events. That being said it becomes fundamental to include resilience criteria, when it comes to housing, which in turn will allow new houses to better withstand the passage of time and natural disasters, in the safest way possible. This master thesis is intended to provide guiding principles to take towards housing recovery after natural disasters, particularly in the form of flood resilient construction, considering floods are responsible for the largest number of natural disasters. To this purpose, the main structures that house affected populations were identified and analyzed in depth. After assessing the risks and damages that flood events can cause in housing, a methodology was proposed for flood resilient housing models, in which there were identified key criteria that housing should meet. The same methodology is based in the US Federal Emergency Management Agency requirements and recommendations in accordance to specific flood zones. Finally, a case study in Maldives – one of the most vulnerable countries to sea level rise resulting from climate change – has been analyzed in light of housing recovery in a post-disaster induced scenario. This analysis was carried out by using the proposed methodology with the intent of assessing the resilience of the newly built housing to floods in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.

Hazard assessment of storm events for the battery, New York

The environmental and socio-economic importance of coastal areas is widely recognized, but at present these areas face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations. The increased demand and growing human occupation of coastal zones have greatly contributed to exacerbating such weaknesses. Today, throughout the world, in all countries with coastal regions, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal flooding are frequent. These episodes are usually responsible for property losses and often put human lives at risk. The floods are caused by coastal storms primarily due to the action of very strong winds. The propagation of these storms towards the coast induces high water levels. It is expected that climate change phenomena will contribute to the intensification of coastal storms. In this context, an estimation of coastal flooding hazards is of paramount importance for the planning and management of coastal zones. Consequently, carrying out a series of storm scenarios and analyzing their impacts through numerical modeling is of prime interest to coastal decision-makers. Firstly, throughout this work, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the northeastern region of United States coast, in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate ensemble simulations to assess storms' effects on coastal water levels. For the United States’ northeastern coast, a highly refined regional domain is considered surrounding the area of The Battery, New York, situated in New York Harbor. Based on statistical data of numerical modeling results, a review of the impact of coastal storms to different locations within the study area is performed.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.