Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Excess power circulation in distribution networks containing distributed energy resources

The presence of large number of single-phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause severe power quality problems in distribution networks. The DERs can be installed in random locations. This may cause the generation in a particular phase exceeds the load demand in that phase. Therefore the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. To avoid this problem, the paper proposes the use of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) that needs to be connected at the first bus following a substation. When operated properly, the DSTATCOM can facilitate a set of balanced current flow from the substation, even when excess power is generated by DERs. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

Review Essay: John Pratt and Anna Eriksson (2013) 'Contrasts in Punishment: An Explanation of Anglophone Excess and Nordic Exceptionalism'

This review essay combines the comments made by David Brown, Russell Hogg and Mark Finanne at the Crime, Justice and Social Democracy: 2nd International Conference July 2013. It is followed by a rejoinder by the two authors John Pratt and Anna Eriksson.

Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Costs - solicitor's retainer on 'no win, no fee' basis - meaning of 'win' - solicitor not entitled to recover excess of costs over amount paid on settlement - no consideration for variation of oral retainer.

In Baker Johnson Lawyers v Jorgensen [2002] QDC 205 McGill DCJ considered the meaning of a 'no win, no fee' retainer and concluded that, in the absence of qualification by agreement, solicitors retained on that basis were not entitled to recover costs exceeding the amount of any judgment or settlement.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight in South Africa in 2000

Objective. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight using the body mass index (BMI), by age and sex, in South Africa in 2000. Design. World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Re-analysis of the 1998 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey data provided mean BMI estimates by age and sex. Populationattributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults 30 years of age. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, hypertensive disease, osteoarthritis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and selected cancers. Results. Overall, 87% of type 2 diabetes, 68% of hypertensive disease, 61% of endometrial cancer, 45% of ischaemic stroke, 38% of ischaemic heart disease, 31% of kidney cancer, 24% of osteoarthritis, 17% of colon cancer, and 13% of postmenopausal breast cancer were attributable to a BMI 21 kg/m2. Excess body weight is estimated to have caused 36 504 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 31 018 - 38 637) or 7% (95% uncertainty interval 6.0 - 7.4%) of all deaths in 2000, and 462 338 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 396 512 - 478 847) or 2.9% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 3.0%). The burden in females was approximately double that in males. Conclusions. This study shows the importance of recognising excess body weight as a major risk to health, particularly among females, highlighting the need to develop, implement and evaluate comprehensive interventions to achieve lasting change in the determinants and impact of excess body weight.

Life is too short to RTFM : how users relate to documentation and excess features in consumer products

This paper addresses two common problems that users of various products and interfaces encounter— over-featured interfaces and product documentation. Over-featured interfaces are seen as a problem as they can confuse and over-complicate everyday interactions. Researchers also often claim that users do not read product documentation, although they are often exhorted to ‘RTFM’(read the field manual).We conducted two sets of studies with users which looked at the issues of both manuals and excess features with common domestic and personal products. The quantitative set was a series of questionnaires administered to 170 people over 7 years. The qualitative set consisted of two 6-month longitudinal studies based on diaries and interviews with a total of 15 participants. We found that manuals are not read by the majority of people, and most do not use all the features of the products that they own and use regularly. Men are more likely to do both than women, and younger people are less likely to use manuals than middle-aged and older ones. More educated people are also less likely to read manuals. Over-featuring and being forced to consult manuals also appears to cause negative emotional experiences. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios

The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

Association of sporadic chondrocalcinosis with a -4-basepair G-to-A transition in the 5′-untranslated region of ANKH that promotes enhanced expression of ANKH protein and excess generation of extracellular inorganic pyrophosphate

Objective Certain mutations in ANKH, which encodes a multiple-pass transmembrane protein that regulates inorganic pyrophosphate (PPi) transport, are linked to autosomal-dominant familial chondrocalcinosis. This study investigated the potential for ANKH sequence variants to promote sporadic chondrocalcinosis. Methods ANKH variants identified by genomic sequencing were screened for association with chondrocalcinosis in 128 patients with severe sporadic chondrocalcinosis or pseudogout and in ethnically matched healthy controls. The effects of specific variants on expression of common markers were evaluated by in vitro transcription/translation. The function of these variants was studied in transfected human immortalized CH-8 articular chondrocytes. Results Sporadic chondrocalcinosis was associated with a G-to-A transition in the ANKH 5′-untranslated region (5′-UTR) at 4 bp upstream of the start codon (in homozygotes of the minor allele, genotype relative risk 6.0, P = 0.0006; overall genotype association P = 0.02). This -4-bp transition, as well as 2 mutations previously linked with familial and sporadic chondrocalcinosis (+14 bp C-to-T and C-terminal GAG deletion, respectively), but not the French familial chondrocalcinosis kindred 143-bp T-to-C mutation, increased reticulocyte ANKH transcription/ANKH translation in vitro. Transfection of complementary DNA for both the wild-type ANKH and the -4-bp ANKH protein variant promoted increased extracellular PPi in CH-8 cells, but unexpectedly, these ANKH mutants had divergent effects on the expression of extracellular PPi and the chondrocyte hypertrophy marker, type X collagen. Conclusion A subset of sporadic chondrocalcinosis appears to be heritable via a -4-bp G-to-A ANKH 5′-UTR transition that up-regulates expression of ANKH and extracellular PPi in chondrocyte cells. Distinct ANKH mutations associated with heritable chondrocalcinosis may promote disease by divergent effects on extracellular PPi and chondrocyte hypertrophy, which is likely to mediate differences in the clinical phenotypes and severity of the disease.

Excess water storage depth - A water management practice to control simetryn and thiobencarb runoff from paddy fields

Experiments were carried out to verify the effectiveness of the excess water storage depth (EWSD) in reducing runoff losses of simetryn and thiobencarb from paddy fields upon appreciable rainfall events. A paddy plot having an EWSD of 2 cm was effective in controlling runoff with the herbicide losses of less than 1% of the applied herbicides. Meanwhile, a plot with 0-cm EWSD lost 18.1 and 3.7% of the applied mass of simetryn and thiobencarb, respectively. Therefore, an appropriate EWSD is essential during the recommended 7-day water holding period in order to completely hold the water inside the field in case of rainfall.

Behavior of simetryn and thiobencarb in rice paddy lysimeters and the effect of excess water storage depth in controlling herbicide run-off

Eight small-scale lysimeters with different excess water storage depths (EWSDs) were used to investigate the behavior of two herbicides, simetryn and thiobencarb, under paddy conditions. The concentration of simetryn dissipated similarly in all the lysimeters, while the thiobencarb concentration varied significantly because thiobencarb can adsorb onto the dissolved organic matter in a manure slurry, which was applied to six of the lysimeters. The herbicide losses (the percentage of the applied mass) from the lysimeters were reversely proportional with the EWSD. The correlation was stronger for simetryn than for thiobencarb. An appropriate EWSD is required to effectively prevent herbicide run-off from the paddy field, especially when a rainfall event occurs soon after herbicide application.

An N-ethyl-n-nitrosourea induced corticotropin-releasing hormone promoter mutation provides a mouse model for endogenous glucocorticoid excess

Cushing's syndrome, which is characterized by excessive circulating glucocorticoid concentrations, maybe due to ACTH-dependent or -independent causes that include anterior pituitary and adrenal cortical tumors, respectively. ACTH secretion is stimulated by CRH, and we report a mouse model for Cushing's syndrome due to an N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) induced Crh mutation at -120 bp of the promoter region, which significantly increased luciferase reporter activity and was thus a gain-of-function mutation. Crh -120/+ mice, when compared with wild-type littermates, had obesity, muscle wasting, thin skin, hair loss, and elevated plasma and urinary concentrations of corticosterone. In addition, Crh-120/+ mice had hyperglycemia, hyperfructosaminemia, hyperinsulinemia, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and hyperleptinemia but normal adiponectin. Crh -120/+ mice also had low bone mineral density, hypercalcemia, hypercalciuria, and decreased concentrations of plasma PTH and osteocalcin. Bone histomorphometry revealed Crh-120/+ mice to have significant reductions in mineralizing surface area, mineral apposition, bone formation rates, osteoblast number, and the percentage of corticoendosteal bone covered by osteoblasts, which was accompanied by an increase in adipocytes in the bone marrow. Thus, a mouse model for Cushing's syndrome has been established, and this will help in further elucidating the pathophysiological effects of glucocorticoid excess and in evaluating treatments for corticosteroid-induced osteoporosis.

Piggery pond sludge as a nitrogen source for crops. 1. Mineral N supply estimated from laboratory incubations and field application of stockpiled and wet sludge

Piggery pond sludge (PPS) was applied, as-collected (Wet PPS) and following stockpiling for 12 months (Stockpiled PPS), to a sandy Sodosol and clay Vertosol at sites on the Darling Downs of Queensland. Laboratory measures of N availability were carried out on unamended and PPS-amended soils to investigate their value in estimating supplementary N needs of crops in Australia's northern grains region. Cumulative net N mineralised from the long-term (30 weeks) leached aerobic incubation was described by a first-order single exponential model. The mineralisation rate constant (0.057/week) was not significantly different between Control and PPS treatments or across soil types, when the amounts of initial mineral N applied in PPS treatments were excluded. Potentially mineralisable N (No) was significantly increased by the application of Wet PPS, and increased with increasing rate of application. Application of Wet PPS significantly increased the total amount of inorganic N leached compared with the Control treatments. Mineral N applied in Wet PPS contributed as much to the total mineral N status of the soil as did that which mineralised over time from organic N. Rates of C02 evolution during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation indicated that the Stockpiled PPS was more stabilised (19-28% of applied organic C mineralised) than the WetPPS (35-58% of applied organic C mineralised), due to higher lignin content in the former. Net nitrate-N produced following 12 weeks of aerobic non-leached incubation was highly correlated with net nitrate-N leached during 12 weeks of aerobic incubation (R^2 = 0.96), although it was <60% of the latter in both sandy and clayey soils. Anaerobically mineralisable N determined by waterlogged incubation of laboratory PPS-amended soil samples increased with increasing application rate of Wet PPS. Anaerobically minemlisable N from field-moist soil was well correlated with net N mineralised during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation (R^2 =0.90 sandy soil; R^2=0.93 clay soil). In the clay soil, the amount of mineral N produced from all the laboratory incubations was significantly correlated with field-measured nitrate-N in the soil profile (0-1.5 m depth) after 9 months of weed-free fallow following PPS application. In contrast, only anaerobic mineralisable N was significantly correlated with field nitrate-N in the sandy soil. Anaerobic incubation would, therefore, be suitable as a rapid practical test to estimate potentially mineralisable N following applications of different PPS materials in the field.

Re-use of fluoride contaminated bone char sludge in concrete

Managing sludge generated by treating groundwater contaminated with geogenic contaminants (fluoride, arsenic, and iron) is a major issue in developing nations. Their re-use in civil engineering applications is a possible pathway for reducing the impact on the geo-environment. This paper examines the re-use of one such sludge material, namely, fluoride contaminated bone char sludge, as partial replacement for fine aggregate (river-sand) in the manufacture of dense concrete specimens. Bone char sludge is being produced by defluoridation of contaminated groundwater in Nalagonda District, Andhra Pradesh, India. The impact of admixing 1.5-9% sludge contents on the compression strength and fluoride leaching potential of the sludge admixed concrete (SAC) specimens are examined. The compression strengths of the SAC specimensa re examined with respect to strength criteria for manufacture of dense, load-bearing concrete blocks. The fluoride release potential of the SAC specimens is examined with respect to standards specific to disposal of treated leachate into inland surface water.