Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models

We advance the proposition that dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models should not only be estimated and evaluated with full information methods. These require that the complete system of equations be specified properly. Some limited information analysis, which focuses upon specific equations, is therefore likely to be a useful complement to full system analysis. Two major problems occur when implementing limited information methods. These are the presence of forward-looking expectations in the system as well as unobservable non-stationary variables. We present methods for dealing with both of these difficulties, and illustrate the interaction between full and limited information methods using a well-known model.

Crash risk estimation and assessment tool

Currently in Australia, there are no decision support tools for traffic and transport engineers to assess the crash risk potential of proposed road projects at design level. A selection of equivalent tools already exists for traffic performance assessment, e.g. aaSIDRA or VISSIM. The Urban Crash Risk Assessment Tool (UCRAT) was developed for VicRoads by ARRB Group to promote methodical identification of future crash risks arising from proposed road infrastructure, where safety cannot be evaluated based on past crash history. The tool will assist practitioners with key design decisions to arrive at the safest and the most cost -optimal design options. This paper details the development and application of UCRAT software. This professional tool may be used to calculate an expected mean number of casualty crashes for an intersection, a road link or defined road network consisting of a number of such elements. The mean number of crashes provides a measure of risk associated with the proposed functional design and allows evaluation of alternative options. The tool is based on historical data for existing road infrastructure in metropolitan Melbourne and takes into account the influence of key design features, traffic volumes, road function and the speed environment. Crash prediction modelling and risk assessment approaches were combined to develop its unique algorithms. The tool has application in such projects as road access proposals associated with land use developments, public transport integration projects and new road corridor upgrade proposals.

Vision only pose estimation and scene reconstruction on airborne platforms

We aim to demonstrate unaided visual 3D pose estimation and map reconstruction using both monocular and stereo vision techniques. To date, our work has focused on collecting data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, which generates a number of significant issues specific to the application. Such issues include scene reconstruction degeneracy from planar data, poor structure initialisation for monocular schemes and difficult 3D reconstruction due to high feature covariance. Most modern Visual Odometry (VO) and related SLAM systems make use of a number of sensors to inform pose and map generation, including laser range-finders, radar, inertial units and vision [1]. By fusing sensor inputs, the advantages and deficiencies of each sensor type can be handled in an efficient manner. However, many of these sensors are costly and each adds to the complexity of such robotic systems. With continual advances in the abilities, small size, passivity and low cost of visual sensors along with the dense, information rich data that they provide our research focuses on the use of unaided vision to generate pose estimates and maps from robotic platforms. We propose that highly accurate (�5cm) dense 3D reconstructions of large scale environments can be obtained in addition to the localisation of the platform described in other work [2]. Using images taken from cameras, our algorithm simultaneously generates an initial visual odometry estimate and scene reconstruction from visible features, then passes this estimate to a bundle-adjustment routine to optimise the solution. From this optimised scene structure and the original images, we aim to create a detailed, textured reconstruction of the scene. By applying such techniques to a unique airborne scenario, we hope to expose new robotic applications of SLAM techniques. The ability to obtain highly accurate 3D measurements of an environment at a low cost is critical in a number of agricultural and urban monitoring situations. We focus on cameras as such sensors are small, cheap and light-weight and can therefore be deployed in smaller aerial vehicles. This, coupled with the ability of small aerial vehicles to fly near to the ground in a controlled fashion, will assist in increasing the effective resolution of the reconstructed maps.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Estimation and control for an open-source quadcopter

This paper describes modelling, estimation and control of the horizontal translational motion of an open-source and cost effective quadcopter — the MikroKopter. We determine the dynamics of its roll and pitch attitude controller, system latencies, and the units associated with the values exchanged with the vehicle over its serial port. Using this we create a horizontal-plane velocity estimator that uses data from the built-in inertial sensors and an onboard laser scanner, and implement translational control using a nested control loop architecture. We present experimental results for the model and estimator, as well as closed-loop positioning.

System identification, estimation and control for a cost effective open-source quadcopter

This paper describes system identification, estimation and control of translational motion and heading angle for a cost effective open-source quadcopter — the MikroKopter. The dynamics of its built-in sensors, roll and pitch attitude controller, and system latencies are determined and used to design a computationally inexpensive multi-rate velocity estimator that fuses data from the built-in inertial sensors and a low-rate onboard laser range finder. Control is performed using a nested loop structure that is also computationally inexpensive and incorporates different sensors. Experimental results for the estimator and closed-loop positioning are presented and compared with ground truth from a motion capture system.

The relationship between Bayesian motor unit number estimation and histological measurements of motor neurons in wild-type and SOD1 G93A mice

Objective: To assess the relationship between Bayesian MUNE and histological motor neuron counts in wild-type mice and in an animal model of ALS. Methods: We performed Bayesian MUNE paired with histological counts of motor neurons in the lumbar spinal cord of wild-type mice and transgenic SOD1 G93A mice that show progressive weakness over time. We evaluated the number of acetylcholine endplates that were innervated by a presynaptic nerve. Results: In wild-type mice, the motor unit number in the gastrocnemius muscle estimated by Bayesian MUNE was approximately half the number of motor neurons in the region of the spinal cord that contains the cell bodies of the motor neurons supplying the hindlimb crural flexor muscles. In SOD1 G93A mice, motor neuron numbers declined over time. This was associated with motor endplate denervation at the end-stage of disease. Conclusion: The number of motor neurons in the spinal cord of wild-type mice is proportional to the number of motor units estimated by Bayesian MUNE. In SOD1 G93A mice, there is a lower number of estimated motor units compared to the number of spinal cord motor neurons at the end-stage of disease, and this is associated with disruption of the neuromuscular junction. Significance: Our finding that the Bayesian MUNE method gives estimates of motor unit numbers that are proportional to the numbers of motor neurons in the spinal cord supports the clinical use of Bayesian MUNE in monitoring motor unit loss in ALS patients. © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Analytical model for fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays in power systems [电力系统故障诊断与不可观测保护状态识别的解析模型]

In recent years, some models have been proposed for the fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays (FSE-SIUPR) under the condition of incomplete state information of protective relays. In these models, the temporal alarm information from a faulted power system is not well explored although it is very helpful in compensating the incomplete state information of protective relays, quickly achieving definite fault diagnosis results and evaluating the operating status of protective relays and circuit breakers in complicated fault scenarios. In order to solve this problem, an integrated optimization mathematical model for the FSE-SIUPR, which takes full advantage of the temporal characteristics of alarm messages, is developed in the framework of the well-established temporal constraint network. With this model, the fault evolution procedure can be explained and some states of unobserved protective relays identified. The model is then solved by means of the Tabu search (TS) and finally verified by test results of fault scenarios in a practical power system.

Benefits and issues for bus travel time estimation and prediction

Bus travel time estimation and prediction are two important modelling approaches which could facilitate transit users in using and transit providers in managing the public transport network. Bus travel time estimation could assist transit operators in understanding and improving the reliability of their systems and attracting more public transport users. On the other hand, bus travel time prediction is an important component of a traveller information system which could reduce the anxiety and stress for the travellers. This paper provides an insight into the characteristic of bus in traffic and the factors that influence bus travel time. A critical overview of the state-of-the-art in bus travel time estimation and prediction is provided and the needs for research in this important area are highlighted. The possibility of using Vehicle Identification Data (VID) for studying the relationship between bus and cars travel time is also explored.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Online hidden Markov model parameter estimation and minimax robust quickest change detection in uncertain stochastic processes

Stochastic (or random) processes are inherent to numerous fields of human endeavour including engineering, science, and business and finance. This thesis presents multiple novel methods for quickly detecting and estimating uncertainties in several important classes of stochastic processes. The significance of these novel methods is demonstrated by employing them to detect aircraft manoeuvres in video signals in the important application of autonomous mid-air collision avoidance.

Real-time wind speed estimation and compensation for improved flight

This paper presents the development and experimental validation of a prototype system for online estimation and compensation of wind disturbances onboard small Rotorcraft unmanned aerial systems (RUAS). The proposed approach consists of integrating a small pitot-static system onboard the vehicle and using simple but effective algorithms for estimating the wind speed in real time. The baseline flight controller has been augmented with a feed-forward term to compensate for these wind disturbances, thereby improving the flight performance of small RUAS in windy conditions. The paper also investigates the use of online airspeed measurements in a closed-loop for controlling the RUAS forward motion without the aid of a global positioning system (GPS). The results of more than 80 flights with a RUAS confirm the validity of our approach.

Working correlation structure misspecification, estimation and covariate design: Implications for generalised estimating equations performance

The method of generalised estimating equations for regression modelling of clustered outcomes allows for specification of a working matrix that is intended to approximate the true correlation matrix of the observations. We investigate the asymptotic relative efficiency of the generalised estimating equation for the mean parameters when the correlation parameters are estimated by various methods. The asymptotic relative efficiency depends on three-features of the analysis, namely (i) the discrepancy between the working correlation structure and the unobservable true correlation structure, (ii) the method by which the correlation parameters are estimated and (iii) the 'design', by which we refer to both the structures of the predictor matrices within clusters and distribution of cluster sizes. Analytical and numerical studies of realistic data-analysis scenarios show that choice of working covariance model has a substantial impact on regression estimator efficiency. Protection against avoidable loss of efficiency associated with covariance misspecification is obtained when a 'Gaussian estimation' pseudolikelihood procedure is used with an AR(1) structure.