Growth and Survival Determinants of Chinese Private Firms: Fieldwork evidence and econometric estimates

This paper reports on one of the first empirical attempts to investigate small firm growth and survival, and their determinants, in the Peoples’ Republic of China. The work is based on field work evidence gathered from a sample of 83 Chinese private firms (mainly SMEs) collected initially by face-to-face interviews, and subsequently by follow-up telephone interviews a year later. We extend the models of Gibrat (1931) and Jovanovic (1982), which traditionally focus on size and age alone (e.g. Brock and Evans, 1986), to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model with two types of additional explanatory variables: firm-specific (e.g. business planning); and environmental (e.g. choice of location). We estimate two econometric models: a ‘basic’ age-size-growth model; and a ‘comprehensive’ growth model, using Heckman’s two-step regression procedure. Estimation is by log-linear regression on cross-section data, with corrections for sample selection bias and heteroskedasticity. Our results refute a pure Gibrat model (but support a more general variant) and support the learning model, as regards the consequences of size and age for growth; and our extension to a comprehensive model highlights the importance of location choice and customer orientation for the growth of Chinese private firms. In the latter model, growth is explained by variables like planning, R&D orientation, market competition, elasticity of demand etc. as well as by control variables. Our work on small firm growth achieves two things. First, it upholds the validity of ‘basic’ size-age-growth models, and successfully applies them to the Chinese economy. Second, it extends the compass of such models to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model incorporating firm-specific and environmental variables.

Effects of different Incentives on Attrition and Fieldwork Effort in Telephone Household Panel Surveys

Little is known about sample behavior and fieldwork effects of different incentives introduced in a household panel survey. This is especially true for telephone surveys. In a randomized experiment, the Swiss Household Panel implemented one prepaid and two promised nonmonetary incentives in the range of 10 to 15 Swiss Francs (7-10 e), plus a no incentive control group. The aim of the paper is to compare effects of these incentives especially on cooperation, but also on sample selection and fieldwork effort, separated by the household and the subsequent individual level. We find small positive cooperation effects of the prepaid incentive on both the household and the individual level especially in larger households. Sample composition is affected to a very minor extent. Finally, incentives tend to save fieldwork time and partially the number of contacts needed on the individual level.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

The 16PF5 and the NEO-PI-R in Spanish and Swiss samples: A cross-cultural comparison

This study compared the Spanish (Castilian) and French versions of the 16PF5 and of the NEO-PI-R in Spanish and Swiss samples. The five-factor solution for the 16PF5 only seems clear for the Castilian version, but not for the French version. Indeed, the congruence coefficients for the Tough-Mindedness and the Self-Control dimensions are low. On the other hand, the five-factor solutions are highly similar for both countries concerning the NEO-PI-R, and the congruence coefficients are above .95 for all five dimensions. The low cross-cultural replicability for the 16PF5 makes it difficult to analyze the differences at the mean level for this inventory. For the NEO-PI-R, the differences are generally very small and globally account for 2.6% of the total variance. Spaniards seem to have slightly lower scores on Actions and slightly higher scores on Dutifulness. These differences could either be due to translation problems, sample selection, or cultural differences.

¿Son aplicables los criterios analíticos generales para definir el hipotiroidismo en personas con síndrome de down?

Title: Are suitable general clinic criteria for defining hypothyroidism in people with Down syndrome? Studies on the prevalence of thyroid disorders in people with Down syndrome (DS) show a wide dispersion of results. However, most of these studies agree in indicating a greater frequency than in the general population. The cause of these differences may depend on the method of sample selection. In this work we studied a healthy population of adolescents with DS of the Association of Málaga, selected randomly and regardless of the medical care. Mean TSH distribution, used here as a tool to define the biochemical thyroid function of the studied DS population, was two standard deviation higher than the mean for the general population. These data show that in terms of TSH the DS population is a distinct population with respect to the general population. This clearly indicates that it would be necessary to identify and define new criteria to establish what is normal, subclinical hypothyroidism, borderline or pathological, and to propose new treatment guide.

Innovation and firm growth: Does firm age play a role?

This paper explores the relationship between firm growth, innovation and firm age. We hypothesize that young firms undertake riskier innovation activities and are more oriented towards employment growth than towards harvesting returns in the form of sales growth. Using an extensive sample of Community Innovation Survey for the period 2004-2010, we apply quantile regressions and a Heckman sample selection technique to study the impact of R&D activities on firm growth according to firm age. Our results show that R&D intensity is positively associated with firm growth. However, for young firms R&D shows an increasing influence across the quantiles, while for old firms R&D shows a stable or perhaps decreasing effect over the quantiles. Firm age shows a significant negative impact among young firms, while for the sample of old firms the impact of firm age becomes non-significant. Our Heckman estimations show the evolution of the impact of the R&D on firm growth confirming a significant impact on sales and productivity growth, while the impact is negligible for employment growth. Keywords: firm age, firm growth, innovation, quantile regression. JEL CODES: L25, L20

Trade-off between formal and informal care in Spain

The remarkable growth of older population has moved long term care to the front ranks of the social policy agenda. Understanding the factors that determine the type and amount of formal care is important for predicting use in the future and developing long-term policy. In this context we jointly analyze the choice of care (formal, informal, both together or none) as well as the number of hours of care received. Given that the number of hours of care is not independent of the type of care received, we estimate, for the first time in this area of research, a sample selection model with the particularity that the first step is a multinomial logit model. With regard to the debate about complementarity or substitutability between formal and informal care, our results indicate that formal care acts as a reinforcement of the family care in certain cases: for very old care receivers, in those cases in which the individual has multiple disabilities, when many care hours are provided, and in case of mental illness and/or dementia. There exist substantial differences in long term care addressed to younger and older dependent people and dependent women are in risk of becoming more vulnerable to the shortage of informal caregivers in the future. Finally, we have documented that there are great disparities in the availability of public social care across regions.

How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

High-growth firms and innovation: an empirical analysis for Spanish firms

This paper analyses the effect of R&D investment on firm growth. We use an extensive sample of Spanish manufacturing and service firms. The database comprises diverse waves of Spanish Community Innovation Survey and covers the period 2004–2008. First, a probit model corrected for sample selection analyses the role of innovation on the probability of being a high-growth firm (HGF). Second, a quantile regression technique is applied to explore the determinants of firm growth. Our database shows that a small number of firms experience fast growth rates in terms of sales or employees. Our results reveal that R&D investments positively affect the probability of becoming a HGF. However, differences appear between manufacturing and service firms. Finally, when we study the impact of R&D investment on firm growth, quantile estimations show that internal R&D presents a significant positive impact for the upper quantiles, while external R&D shows a significant positive impact up to the median. Keywords : High-growth firms, Firm growth, Innovation activity. JEL Classifications : L11, L25, L26, O30

Methodology used in studies reporting chronic kidney disease prevalence : a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Many publications report the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population. Comparisons across studies are hampered as CKD prevalence estimations are influenced by study population characteristics and laboratory methods. METHODS: For this systematic review, two researchers independently searched PubMed, MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify all original research articles that were published between 1 January 2003 and 1 November 2014 reporting the prevalence of CKD in the European adult general population. Data on study methodology and reporting of CKD prevalence results were independently extracted by two researchers. RESULTS: We identified 82 eligible publications and included 48 publications of individual studies for the data extraction. There was considerable variation in population sample selection. The majority of studies did not report the sampling frame used, and the response ranged from 10 to 87%. With regard to the assessment of kidney function, 67% used a Jaffe assay, whereas 13% used the enzymatic assay for creatinine determination. Isotope dilution mass spectrometry calibration was used in 29%. The CKD-EPI (52%) and MDRD (75%) equations were most often used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CKD was defined as estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in 92% of studies. Urinary markers of CKD were assessed in 60% of the studies. CKD prevalence was reported by sex and age strata in 54 and 50% of the studies, respectively. In publications with a primary objective of reporting CKD prevalence, 39% reported a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this systematic review showed considerable variation in methods for sampling the general population and assessment of kidney function across studies reporting CKD prevalence. These results are utilized to provide recommendations to help optimize both the design and the reporting of future CKD prevalence studies, which will enhance comparability of study results.

In search of information systems value : a case study of the EHR benefits realisation efforts of three Swedish hospitals.

The Swedish public health care organisation could very well be undergoing its most significant change since its specialisation during the late 19th and early 20th century. At the heart of this change is a move from using manual patient journals to electronic health records (EHR). EHR are complex integrated organisational wide information systems (IS) that promise great benefits and value as well as presenting great challenges to the organisation. The Swedish public health care is not the first organisation to implement integrated IS, and by no means alone in their quest for realising the potential benefits and value that it has to offer. As organisations invest in IS they embark on a journey of value-creation and capture. A journey where a costbased approach towards their IS-investments is replaced with a value-centric focus, and where the main challenges lie in the practical day-to-day task of finding ways to intertwine technology, people and business processes. This has however proven to be a problematic task. The problematic situation arises from a shift of perspective regarding how to manage IS in order to gain value. This is a shift from technology delivery to benefits delivery; from an ISimplementation plan to a change management plan. The shift gives rise to challenges related to the inability of IS and the elusiveness of value. As a response to these challenges the field of IS-benefits management has emerged offering a framework and a process in order to better understand and formalise benefits realisation activities. In this thesis the benefits realisation efforts of three Swedish hospitals within the same county council are studied. The thesis focuses on the participants of benefits analysis projects; their perceptions, judgments, negotiations and descriptions of potential benefits. The purpose is to address the process where organisations seek to identify which potential IS-benefits to pursue and realise, this in order to better understand what affects the process, so that realisation actions of potential IS-benefits could be supported. A qualitative case study research design is adopted and provides a framework for sample selection, data collection, and data analysis. It also provides a framework for discussions of validity, reliability and generalizability. Findings displayed a benefits fluctuation, which showed that participants’ perception of what constituted potential benefits and value changed throughout the formal benefits management process. Issues like structure, knowledge, expectation and experience affected perception differently, and this in the end changed the amount and composition of potential benefits and value. Five dimensions of benefits judgment were identified and used by participants when finding accommodations of potential benefits and value to pursue. Identified dimensions affected participants’ perceptions, which in turn affected the amount and composition of potential benefits. During the formal benefits management process participants shifted between judgment dimensions. These movements emerged through debates and interactions between participants. Judgments based on what was perceived as expected due to one’s role and perceived best for the organisation as a whole were the two dominant benefits judgment dimensions. A benefits negotiation was identified. Negotiations were divided into two main categories, rational and irrational, depending on participants’ drive when initiating and participating in negotiations. In each category three different types of negotiations were identified having different characteristics and generating different outcomes. There was also a benefits negotiation process identified that displayed management challenges corresponding to its five phases. A discrepancy was also found between how IS-benefits are spoken of and how actions of IS benefits realisation are understood. This was a discrepancy between an evaluation and a realisation focus towards IS value creation. An evaluation focus described IS-benefits as well-defined and measurable effects and a realisation focus spoke of establishing and managing an on-going place of value creation. The notion of valuescape was introduced in order to describe and support the understanding of IS value creation. Valuescape corresponded to a realisation focus and outlined a value configuration consisting of activities, logic, structure, drivers and role of IS.

Identification des mesures d’inégalité dans les modèles de sélection

Dans ce mémoire, je considère un modèle de sélection standard avec sélection non aléatoire. D’abord, je discute la validité et la ‘‘sharpness ’’ des bornes sur l’intervalle interquantile de la distribution de la variable aléatoire latente non censurée, dérivées par Blundell et al. (2007). Ensuite, je dérive les bornes ‘‘sharp ’’ sur l’intervalle interquantile lorsque la distribution observée domine stochastiquement au premier ordre celle non observée. Enfin, je discute la ‘‘sharpness’’ des bornes sur la variance de la distribution de la variable latente, dérivées par Stoye (2010). Je montre que les bornes sont valides mais pas nécessairement ‘‘sharp’’. Je propose donc des bornes inférieures ‘‘sharp’’ pour la variance et le coefficient de variation de ladite distribution.

Prevalencia de signos y síntomas de desorden musculoesquelético y su asociación con factores ocupacionales en trabajadores de minas de carbón subterráneo en cinco municipios de la región de Ubaté, Cundinamarca 2013-2014

Estudio de corte transversal cuyo objetivo es identificar la prevalencia de signos y síntomas de desordenes musculoesqueléticos (DME) en trabajadores que realicen actividades laborales para las empresas mineras de carbón subterráneo en cinco municipios de la Región de Ubaté en el Departamento de Cundinamarca, 2013-2014. Los DME constituyen una de las causas de enfermedad de origen laboral más comunes en todo el mundo; en Colombia específicamente, representan el 82% de las enfermedades laborales. La minería en la Región de Ubaté es una de las principales fuentes producción y generación de empleo. Dado que el país se cuenta con escasa literatura al respecto en el sector minero, es importante dar a conocer la prevalencia de los signos y síntomas de DME y su asociación con los factores ocupacionales que se presentan en la minería subterránea. Se tuvo en cuenta una población de 1.901 trabajadores pertenecientes a 556 empresas de minería de carbón subterránea, donde la muestra fue estratificada por asignación proporcional, de conglomerados, con selección aleatoria y bietápica, correspondiente a 215 trabajadores mineros que trabajan en las 11 empresas seleccionadas, a quienes se aplicó el instrumento del cuestionario Nórdico y las pruebas clínicas estandarizadas para la evaluación de la presencia de signos y síntomas de DME. En los resultados se encontró que la mayor prevalencia de signos y síntomas de DME, se localizó en las regiones, lumbar y de hombros, los cuales están asociados principalmente a factores ocupacionales como el tipo de extracción manual y los cargos de descargue y frentero.

Cambios en los retornos de la educación en Bogotá entre 1997 y 2003

Se estima la tasa de retorno de la educación en Bogotá para 1997 y 2003 por medio de la metodología de Heckman. Se encuentra que los retornos de la educación y de la experiencia potencial son menores en 2003. El ingreso laboral promedio también disminuye.