Partially Ordered Preferences in Decision Trees: Computing Strategies with Imprecision in Probabilities

Partially ordered preferences generally lead to choices that do not abide by standard expected utility guidelines; often such preferences are revealed by imprecision in probability values. We investigate five criteria for strategy selection in decision trees with imprecision in probabilities: “extensive” Γ-maximin and Γ-maximax, interval dominance, maximality and E-admissibility. We present algorithms that generate strategies for all these criteria; our main contribution is an algorithm for Eadmissibility that runs over admissible strategies rather than over sets of probability distributions.

Improvement of strategies for the management of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora). Evaluation and optimization of physical and chemical control methods, and use of decision support systems

El foc bacterià és una malaltia que afecta a plantes de la família de la rosàcies, causada pel bacteri Erwinia amylovora. El seu rang d'hostes inclou arbres fruiters, com la perera, la pomera o el codonyer, i plantes ornamentals de gran interès comercial i econòmic. Actualment, la malaltia s'ha dispersat i es troba àmpliament distribuïda en totes les zones de clima temperat del món. A Espanya, on la malaltia no és endèmica, el foc bacterià es va detectar per primer cop al 1995 al nord del país (Euskadi) i posteriorment, han aparegut varis focus en altres localitzacions, que han estat convenientment eradicats. El control del foc bacterià, és molt poc efectiu en plantes afectades per la malaltia, de manera que es basa en mesures encaminades a evitar la dispersió del patogen, i la introducció de la malaltia en regions no endèmiques. En aquest treball, la termoteràpia ha estat avaluada com a mètode d'eradicació d'E. amylovora de material vegetal de propagació asimptomàtic. S'ha demostrat que la termoteràpia és un mètode viable d'eradicar E. amylovora de material de propagació. Gairebé totes les espècies i varietats de rosàcies mantingudes en condicions d'humitat sobrevivien 7 hores a 45 ºC i més de 3 hores a 50 ºC, mentre que més d'1 hora d'exposició a 50 ºC amb calor seca produïa danys en el material vegetal i reduïa la brotació. Tractaments de 60 min a 45 ºC o 30 min a 50 ºC van ser suficients per reduir la població epífita d'E. amylovora a nivells no detectables (5 x 102 ufc g-1 p.f.) en branques de perera. Els derivats dels fosfonats i el benzotiadiazol són efectius en el control del foc bacterià en perera i pomera, tant en condicions de laboratori, com d'hivernacle i camp. Els inductors de defensa de les plantes redueixen els nivells de malaltia fins al 40-60%. Els intervals de temps mínims per aconseguir el millor control de la malaltia van ser 5 dies pel fosetil-Al, i 7 dies per l'etefon i el benzotiadiazol, i les dosis òptimes pel fosetil-Al i el benzotiadiazol van ser 3.72 g HPO32- L-1 i 150 mg i.a. L-1, respectivament. Es millora l'eficàcia del fosetil-Al i del benzotiadiazol en el control del foc bacterià, quan es combinen amb els antibiòtics a la meitat de la dosi d'aquests últims. Tot i que l'estratègia de barrejar productes és més pràctica i fàcil de dur a terme a camp, que l'estratègia de combinar productes, el millor nivell de control de la malaltia s'aconsegueix amb l'estratègia de combinar productes. Es va analitzar a nivell histològic i ultrastructural l'efecte del benzotiadiazol i dels fosfonats en la interacció Erwinia amylovora-perera. Ni el benzotiadiazol, ni el fosetil-Al, ni l'etefon van induir canvis estructurals en els teixits de perera 7 dies després de la seva aplicació. No obstant, després de la inoculació d'E. amylovora es va observar en plantes tractades amb fosetil-Al i etefon una desorganització estructural cel·lular, mentre que en les plantes tractades amb benzotiadiazol aquestes alteracions tissulars van ser retardades. S'han avaluat dos models (Maryblyt, Cougarblight) en un camp a Espanya afectat per la malaltia, per determinar la precisió de les prediccions. Es van utilitzar dos models per elaborar el mapa de risc, el BRS-Powell combinat i el BIS95 modificat. Els resultats van mostrar dos zones amb elevat i baix risc de la malaltia. Maryblyt i Cougarblight són dos models de fàcil ús, tot i que la seva implementació en programes de maneig de la malaltia requereix que siguin avaluats i validats per un període de temps més llarg i en àrees on la malaltia hi estigui present.

An economic decision support tool for simulating paratuberculosis control strategies in a UK suckler beef herd

A dynamic, deterministic, economic simulation model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of controlling Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a suckler beef herd. The model is intended as a demonstration tool for veterinarians to use with farmers. The model design process involved user consultation and participation and the model is freely accessible on a dedicated website. The 'user-friendly' model interface allows the input of key assumptions and farm specific parameters enabling model simulations to be tailored to individual farm circumstances. The model simulates the effect of Johne's disease and various measures for its control in terms of herd prevalence and the shedding states of animals within the herd, the financial costs of the disease and of any control measures and the likely benefits of control of Johne's disease for the beef suckler herd over a 10-year period. The model thus helps to make more transparent the 'hidden costs' of Johne's in a herd and the likely benefits to be gained from controlling the disease. The control strategies considered within the model are 'no control', 'testing and culling of diagnosed animals', 'improving management measures' or a dual strategy of 'testing and culling in association with improving management measures'. An example 'run' of the model shows that the strategy 'improving management measures', which reduces infection routes during the early stages, results in a marked fall in herd prevalence and total costs. Testing and culling does little to reduce prevalence and does not reduce total costs over the 10-year period.

Strategies for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease: results of a decision analysis

Nearly 70% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) undergo surgical resection, with one-quarter subsequently developing clinical recurrence within 12 months. Several options exist for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in CD, but the comparative cost effectiveness of these competing strategies has not been previously analyzed.

Guidelines for WB3 Part III: Stakeholder workshop 2: Selection and decision on prevention and mitigation strategies to be implemented

These guidelines were developed in the context of working block 3 of the DESIRE project. They address the facilitators in the 18 DESIRE study sites and support them in conducting stakeholder workshops aiming at the selection and decision on mitigation strategies to be implemented in the study site context. The decision-making process is supported by a multi-objective decision support system (MODSS) Software called 'Facilitator'.

Moderating effects of contextual factors on relationship between pharmaceutical marketing strategies and physician prescription decision: A review

Decision–making by physicians on patients’ treatment has received increased research attention. Research on the effect of marketing strategies on prescription behaviour has tended to generate controversial results. While some researchers reported a strong influence, some found only moderate effects, while others find no influence at all. The main objective of this paper is to review the influence of the marketing strategies by pharmaceutical firms and contextual factors on physician attitude to drug prescription. The paper presents comprehensive information on pharmaceutical marketing efforts through exhaustive review of relevant literature, and identifies the moderating effects of contextual factors on physician prescribing decisions. It also presents a crucial conceptual model for explaining the theoretical linkages between marketing strategies of pharmaceutical firms, contextual factors and the decision of the physician regarding drug prescription.

Decision Matrix Compared with Partnering Principles

The ideas for this CRC research project are based directly on Sidwell, Kennedy and Chan (2002). That research examined a number of case studies to identify the characteristics of successful projects. The findings were used to construct a matrix of best practice project delivery strategies. The purpose of this literature review is to test the decision matrix against established theory and best practice in the subject of construction project management.

Strategies for minimising the whole of life cycle cost of reinforced concrete bridge exposed to aggressive environments

n design of bridge structures, it is common to adopt a 100 year design life. However, analysis of a number of case study bridges in Australia has indicated that the actual design life can be significantly reduced due to premature deterioration resulting from exposure to aggressive environments. A closer analysis of the cost of rehabilitation of these structures has raised some interesting questions. What would be the real service life of a bridge exposed to certain aggressive environments? What is the strategy of conducting bridge rehabilitation? And what are the life cycle costs associated with rehabilitation? A research project funded by the CRC for Construction Innovation in Australia is aimed at addressing these issues. This paper presents a concept map for assisting decision makers to appropriately choose the best treatment for bridge rehabilitation affected by premature deterioration through exposure to aggressive environments in Australia. The decision analysis is referred to a whole of life cycle cost analysis by considering appropriate elements of bridge rehabilitation costs. In addition, the results of bridges inspections in Queensland are presented

Creating a proactive decision-support environment in managing road traffic noise

Properly designed decision support environments encourage proactive and objective decision making. The work presented in this paper inquires into developing a decision support environment and a tool to facilitate objective decision making in dealing with road traffic noise. The decision support methodology incorporates traffic amelioration strategies both within and outside the road reserve. The project is funded by the CRC for Construction Innovation and conducted jointly by the RMIT University and the Queensland Department of Main Roads (MR) in collaboration with the Queensland Department of Public Works, Arup Pty Ltd., and the Queensland University of Technology. In this paper, the proposed decision support framework is presented in the way of a flowchart which enabled the development of the decision support tool (DST). The underpinning concept is to establish and retain an information warehouse for each critical road segment (noise corridor) for a given planning horizon. It is understood that, in current practice, some components of the approach described are already in place but not fully integrated and supported. It provides an integrated user-friendly interface between traffic noise modeling software, noise management criteria and cost databases.

Decision - Support Software Tool Handbook

The road and transport industry in Australia and overseas has come a long way to understanding the impact of road traffic noise on the urban environment. Most road authorities now have guidelines to help assess and manage the impact of road traffic noise on noise-sensitive areas and development. While several economic studies across Australia and overseas have tried to value the impact of noise on property prices, decision-makers investing in road traffic noise management strategies have relatively limited historic data and case studies to go on. The perceived success of a noise management strategy currently relies largely on community expectations at a given time, and is not necessarily based on the analysis of the costs and benefits, or the long-term viability and value to the community of the proposed treatment options. With changing trends in urban design, it is essential that the 'whole-of-life' costs and benefits of noise ameliorative treatment options and strategies be identified and made available for decisionmakers in future investment considerations. For this reason, CRC for Construction Innovation Australia funded a research project, Noise Management in Urban Environments to help decision-makers with future road traffic noise management investment decisions. RMIT University and the Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) have conducted the research work, in collaboration with the Queensland Department of Public Works, ARUP Pty Ltd, and the Queensland University of Technology. The research has formed the basis for the development of a decision-support software tool, and helped collate technical and costing data for known noise amelioration treatment options. We intend that the decision support software tool (DST) should help an investment decision-maker to be better informed of suitable noise ameliorative treatment options on a project-by-project basis and identify likely costs and benefits associated with each of those options. This handbook has been prepared as a procedural guide for conducting a comparative assessment of noise ameliorative options. The handbook outlines the methodology and assumptions adopted in the decision-support framework for the investment decision-maker and user of the DST. The DST has been developed to provide an integrated user-friendly interface between road traffic noise modelling software, the relevant assessment criteria and the options analysis process. A user guide for the DST is incorporated in this handbook.