GCM-data intercomparison: the good news and the bad

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): General circulation models (GCMs) are probably the most sophisticated theoretical tools we have to simulate possible climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. ... As will be illustrated here using a variety of examples, although the models do simulate "reality" very well on the "grand" scale (e.g., global, hemispheric, zonal), substantial differences are more apparent as the scale is reduced to areas particularly relevant to regional planners. It is particularly important that workers more clearly recognize the potential dangers in relying too heavily on simple summary statistics such as averages estimated over large regional scales. Many shortcomings are apparent in the model simulations of the present climate, indicating that further model improvements are needed to achieve reliable regional and seasonal projections of the future climatic conditions.

Progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies in China

This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an era from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.

Recent trends in plankton and upwelling intensity off Galicia (NW Spain)

The mean intensity of the NE Atlantic upwelling system at its northern limit (Galicia, NW Spain) decreased during the last 40 years. At the same time, warming of surface waters was detected. Plankton biomass and composition are expected to reflect such changes when integrated over large time and space scales. In this study, biomass, abundance and species composition of phyto- and zooplankton were analysed to search for significant patterns of annual change and relations with upwelling intensity. Regionally integrated, mostly offshore, data were obtained from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (since 1958) whereas coastal data from Vigo and A Coruña came from the Radiales program (since 1987). No significant trends were found in phytoplankton biomass at either regional or local scales. However, there was a significant decrease in diatom abundance at regional scales and also of large species at local scales. Zooplankton abundance (mainly copepods) significantly decreased offshore but increased near the coast. Biomass of zooplankton also increased near the coast, with the fastest rates in the south. Warm-water species, like Temora stylifera, were increasingly abundant at both regional and local scales. Significant correlations between upwelling intensity and plankton suggest that climatic effects were delayed for several years. Our results indicate that the effects of large scale climatic trends on plankton communities are being effectively modulated within the pelagic ecosystem in this upwelling region.

Increased temperature sensitivity of net DOC production from ombrotrophic peat due to water table draw-down.

The production and release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat soils is thought to be sensitive to changes in climate, specifically changes in temperature and rainfall. However, little is known about the actual rates of net DOC production in response to temperature and water table draw-down, particularly in comparison to carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. To explore these relationships, we carried out a laboratory experiment on intact peat soil cores under controlled temperature and water table conditions to determine the impact and interaction of each of these climatic factors on net DOC production. We found a significant interaction (P < 0.001) between temperature, water table draw-down and net DOC production across the whole soil core (0 to −55 cm depth). This corresponded to an increase in the Q10 (i.e. rise in the rate of net DOC production over a 10 °C range) from 1.84 under high water tables and anaerobic conditions to 3.53 under water table draw-down and aerobic conditions between −10 and − 40 cm depth. However, increases in net DOC production were only seen after water tables recovered to the surface as secondary changes in soil water chemistry driven by sulphur redox reactions decreased DOC solubility, and therefore DOC concentrations, during periods of water table draw-down. Furthermore, net microbial consumption of DOC was also apparent at − 1 cm depth and was an additional cause of declining DOC concentrations during dry periods. Therefore, although increased temperature and decreased rainfall could have a significant effect on net DOC release from peatlands, these climatic effects could be masked by other factors controlling the biological consumption of DOC in addition to soil water chemistry and DOC solubility. These findings highlight both the sensitivity of DOC release from ombrotrophic peat to episodic changes in water table draw-down, and the need to disentangle complex and interacting controls on DOC dynamics to fully understand the impact of environmental change on this system.

A high resolution late Holocene palaeo environmental record from the central Adriatic Sea

A multi-proxy study of a Holocene sediment core (RF 93-30) from the western flank of the central Adriatic, in 77 m of water, reveals a sequence of changes in terrestrial vegetation, terrigenous sediment input and benthic fauna, as well as evidence for variations in sea surface temperature spanning most of the last 7000 yr. The chronology of sedimentation is based on several lines of evidence, including AMS 14C dates of foraminifera extracted from the core, palaeomagnetic secular variation, pollen indicators and dated tephra. The temporal resolution increases towards the surface and, for some of the properties measured, is sub-decadal for the last few centuries. The main changes recorded in vegetation, sedimentation and benthic foraminiferal assemblages appear to be directly related to human activity in the sediment source area, which includes the Po valley and the eastern flanks of the central and northern Appenines. The most striking episodes of deforestation and expanding human impact begin around 3600 BP (Late Bronze Age) and 700 BP (Medieval) and each leads to an acceleration in mass sedimentation and an increase in the proportion of terrigenous material, reflecting the response of surface processes to widespread forest clearance and cultivation. Although human impact appears to be the proximal cause of these changes, climatic effects may also have been important. During these periods, signs of stress are detectable in the benthic foram morphotype assemblages. Between these two periods of increased terrigeneous sedimentation there is smaller peak in sedimentation rate around 2400BP which is not associated with evidence for deforestation, shifts in the balance between terrigenous and authigenic sedimentation, or changes in benthic foraminifera. The mineral magnetic record provides a sensitive indicator of changing sediment sources: during forested periods of reduced terrigenous input it is dominated by authigenic bacterial magnetite, whereas during periods of increased erosion, anti-ferromagetic minerals (haematite and/or goethite) become more important, as well as both paramagnetic minerals and super-paramagnetic magnetite. Analysis of the alkenone, U37k′, record provides an indication of possible changes in sea surface temperature during the period, but it is premature to place too much reliance on these inferred changes until the indirect effects of past changes in the depth of the halocline and in circulation have been more fully evaluated. The combination of methods used and the results obtained illustrate the potential value of such high resolution near-shore marine sedimentary sequences for recording wide-scale human impact, documenting the effects of this on marine sedimentation and fauna and, potentially, disentangling evidence for human activities from that for past changes in climate.

A Produção do Flagelo : a re-produção do espaço social da seca na cidade de Mossoró (1877-1903-1915)

The great droughts re- produced spaces in the city of Mossoró / RN in the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twentieth century. Its dimension exceeds the climatic effects becoming social locus when advances over the political and economic sectors, social and cultural of the North / Northeast Brazilian societies during that period. This way, analyzing the re-production of social space in episodes of Mossoró‟s droughts is our toil. So try to reveal each segment, route and aspect of production of space in its size and interface between the perceived, conceived and lived, and subjects related to it - refugees, population and authorities - during the droughts of 1877, 1903 and 1915 within Mossoró city. Therefore, issues such as the constitution and representation of the city and social space in the terrifying experience of the drought of 1877, the production of fixed objects and flows of the urban web through of migrant labor, attempts to control, discipline and spatial planning and ways to resistance to these charges in daily sphere are key issues addressed in this work. For this we use diverse sources as minutes of the city council, reports from provincial presidents, media, memory books and others that sustain us in building our narrative and problematic. This way, the spatial production of Mossoró‟s droughts reveals itself in the field of relations and political-economic transformations and sociocultural, inextricably, that shapes and mobilizes your own social space

Characterisation of sugar cane combustion particles in the Araraquara region, Southeast Brazil

Biomass burning is an important primary and secondary source of aerosol particles. The presence of carbonaceous particles in the respirable size range makes the study of this fraction important in view of possible health and climatic effects. The annual burning of sugar cane plantations causes emission of huge amounts of pyrogenic particles. Aerosol samples were collected in Araraquara city, São Paulo state, Brazil, during the harvest season for fine and coarse particles and bulk; they were analysed by electron-probe microanalysis, including facilities for low-Z element determination (low-Z EPMA) and by energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF), in order to investigate the elemental composition of individual particles and bulk samples, respectively. Numerical analysis of the EPMA results by hierarchical clustering shows high contributions of carbonaceous particles that can be distinguished mainly in two different types: biogenic and carbon-rich. Additionally, two significant contributions of aluminosilicate particles were identified: as rather pure aluminosilicates or mixed with carbonaceous species. The EDXRF results are compatible with those of aerosol particles in Amazon, which is nowadays one of the main sources of biogenic particles in the world.

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010

Spanish version available at the Library

Dinâmica populacional de Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (Canestrini, 1887) em bovinos mestiços mantidos em pastagens de Brachiaria decumbens no município de Formiga, Minas Gerais

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FCAV

Complementary mass spectrometric techniques for the characterization of the organic fraction in atmospheric aerosols

Aerosol particles are strongly related to climate, air quality, visibility and human health issues. They contribute the largest uncertainty in the assessment of the Earth´s radiative budget, directly by scattering or absorbing solar radiation or indirectly by nucleating cloud droplets. The influence of aerosol particles on cloud related climatic effects essentially depends upon their number concentration, size and chemical composition. A major part of submicron aerosol consists of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) that is formed in the atmosphere by the oxidation of volatile organic compounds. SOA can comprise a highly diverse spectrum of compounds that undergo continuous chemical transformations in the atmosphere.rnThe aim of this work was to obtain insights into the complexity of ambient SOA by the application of advanced mass spectrometric techniques. Therefore, an atmospheric pressure chemical ionization ion trap mass spectrometer (APCI-IT-MS) was applied in the field, facilitating the measurement of ions of the intact molecular organic species. Furthermore, the high measurement frequency provided insights into SOA composition and chemical transformation processes on a high temporal resolution. Within different comprehensive field campaigns, online measurements of particular biogenic organic acids were achieved by combining an online aerosol concentrator with the APCI-IT-MS. A holistic picture of the ambient organic aerosol was obtained through the co-located application of other complementary MS techniques, such as aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) or filter sampling for the analysis by liquid chromatography / ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry (LC/UHRMS).rnIn particular, during a summertime field study at the pristine boreal forest station in Hyytiälä, Finland, the partitioning of organic acids between gas and particle phase was quantified, based on the online APCI-IT-MS and AMS measurements. It was found that low volatile compounds reside to a large extent in the gas phase. This observation can be interpreted as a consequence of large aerosol equilibration timescales, which build up due to the continuous production of low volatile compounds in the gas phase and/or a semi-solid phase state of the ambient aerosol. Furthermore, in-situ structural informations of particular compounds were achieved by using the MS/MS mode of the ion trap. The comparison to MS/MS spectra from laboratory generated SOA of specific monoterpene precursors indicated that laboratory SOA barely depicts the complexity of ambient SOA. Moreover, it was shown that the mass spectra of the laboratory SOA more closely resemble the ambient gas phase composition, indicating that the oxidation state of the ambient organic compounds in the particle phase is underestimated by the comparison to laboratory ozonolysis. These observations suggest that the micro-scale processes, such as the chemistry of aerosol aging or the gas-to-particle partitioning, need to be better understood in order to predict SOA concentrations more reliably.rnDuring a field study at the Mt. Kleiner Feldberg, Germany, a slightly different aerosol concentrator / APCI-IT-MS setup made the online analysis of new particle formation possible. During a particular nucleation event, the online mass spectra indicated that organic compounds of approximately 300 Da are main constituents of the bulk aerosol during ambient new particle formation. Co-located filter analysis by LC/UHRMS analysis supported these findings and furthermore allowed to determine the molecular formulas of the involved organic compounds. The unambiguous identification of several oxidized C 15 compounds indicated that oxidation products of sesquiterpenes can be important compounds for the initial formation and subsequent growth of atmospheric nanoparticles.rnThe LC/UHRMS analysis furthermore revealed that considerable amounts of organosulfates and nitrooxy organosulfates were detected on the filter samples. Indeed, it was found that several nitrooxy organosulfate related APCI-IT-MS mass traces were simultaneously enhanced. Concurrent particle phase ion chromatography and AMS measurements indicated a strong bias between inorganic sulfate and total sulfate concentrations, supporting the assumption that substantial amounts of sulfate was bonded to organic molecules.rnFinally, the comprehensive chemical analysis of the aerosol composition was compared to the hygroscopicity parameter kappa, which was derived from cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) measurements. Simultaneously, organic aerosol aging was observed by the evolution of a ratio between a second and a first generation biogenic oxidation product. It was found that this aging proxy positively correlates with increasing hygroscopicity. Moreover, it was observed that the bonding of sulfate to organic molecules leads to a significant reduction of kappa, compared to an internal mixture of the same mass fractions of purely inorganic sulfate and organic molecules. Concluding, it has been shown within this thesis that the application of modern mass spectrometric techniques allows for detailed insights into chemical and physico-chemical processes of atmospheric aerosols.rn

The chironomid-temperature relationship: expression in nature and palaeoenvironmental implications

Fossils of chironomid larvae (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments are well-established palaeotemperature indicators which, with the aid of numerical chironomid-based inference models (transfer functions), can provide quantitative estimates of past temperature change. This approach to temperature reconstruction relies on the strong relationship between air and lake surface water temperature and the distribution of individual chironomid taxa (species, species groups, genera) that has been observed in different climate regions (arctic, subarctic, temperate and tropical) in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere. A major complicating factor for the use of chironomids for palaeoclimate reconstruction which increases the uncertainty associated with chironomid-based temperature estimates is that the exact nature of the mechanism responsible for the strong relationship between temperature and chironomid assemblages in lakes remains uncertain. While a number of authors have provided state of the art overviews of fossil chironomid palaeoecology and the use of chironomids for temperature reconstruction, few have focused on examining the ecological basis for this approach. Here, we review the nature of the relationship between chironomids and temperature based on the available ecological evidence. After discussing many of the surveys describing the distribution of chironomid taxa in lake surface sediments in relation to temperature, we also examine evidence from laboratory and field studies exploring the effects of temperature on chironomid physiology, life cycles and behaviour. We show that, even though a direct influence of water temperature on chironomid development, growth and survival is well described, chironomid palaeoclimatology is presently faced with the paradoxical situation that the relationship between chironomid distribution and temperature seems strongest in relatively deep, thermally stratified lakes in temperate and subarctic regions in which the benthic chironomid fauna lives largely decoupled from the direct influence of air and surface water temperature. This finding suggests that indirect effects of temperature on physical and chemical characteristics of lakes play an important role in determining the distribution of lake-living chironomid larvae. However, we also demonstrate that no single indirect mechanism has been identified that can explain the strong relationship between chironomid distribution and temperature in all regions and datasets presently available. This observation contrasts with the previously published hypothesis that climatic effects on lake nutrient status and productivity may be largely responsible for the apparent correlation between chironomid assemblage distribution and temperature. We conclude our review by summarizing the implications of our findings for chironomid-based palaeoclimatology and by pointing towards further avenues of research necessary to improve our mechanistic understanding of the chironomid-temperature relationship.

Ice Core Paleovolcanic Records from the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

We previously reported a record of regionally significant volcanic eruptions in the North Pacific using an ice core from Eclipse Icefield (St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada). The acquisition of two new ice cores from Eclipse Icefield, along with the previously available Eclipse Icefield and Mount Logan Northwest Col ice cores, allows us to extend our record of North Pacific volcanism to 550 years before present using a suite of four ice cores spanning an elevation range of 3 - 5 km. Comparison of volcanic sulfate flux records demonstrates that the results are highly reproducible, especially for the largest eruptions such as Katmai ( A. D. 1912). Correlation of volcanic sulfate signals with historically documented eruptions indicates that at least one-third of the eruptions recorded in St. Elias ice cores are from Alaskan and Kamchatkan volcanoes. Although there are several moderately large ( volcanic explosivity index (VEI) >= 4) eruptions recorded in only one core from Eclipse Icefield, the use of multiple cores provides signals in at least one core from all known VEI >= 4 eruptions in Alaska and Kamchatka since A. D. 1829. Tephrochronological evidence from the Eclipse ice cores documents eruptions in Alaska (Westdahl, Redoubt, Trident, and Katmai), Kamchatka (Avachinsky, Kliuchevoskoi, and Ksudach), and Iceland (Hekla). Several unidentified tephra-bearing horizons, with available geochemical evidence suggesting Alaskan and Kamchatkan sources, were also found. We present a reconstruction of annual volcanic sulfate loading for the North Pacific troposphere based on our ice core data, and we provide a detailed assessment of the atmospheric and climatic effects of the Katmai eruption.

Stacking of discontinuous regional palaeoclimate records: Chironomid-based summer temperatures from the Alpine region

Since multi-site reconstructions are less affected by site-specific climatic effects and artefacts, regional palaeotemperature reconstructions based on a number of sites can provide more robust estimates of centennial- to millennial-scale temperature trends than individual, site-specific records. Furthermore, reconstructions based on multiple records are necessary for developing continuous climate records over time scales longer than covered by individual sequences. Here, we present a procedure for developing such reconstructions based on relatively short (centuries to millennia), discontinuously sampled records as are typically developed when using biotic proxies in lake sediments for temperature reconstruction. The approach includes an altitudinal correction of temperatures, an interpolation of individual records to equal time intervals, a stacking procedure for sections of the interval of interest that have the same records available, as well as a splicing procedure to link the individual stacked records into a continuous reconstruction. Variations in the final, stacked and spliced reconstruction are driven by variations in the individual records, whereas the absolute temperature values are determined by the stacked segment based on the largest number of records. With numerical simulations based on the NGRIP δ18O record, we demonstrate that the interpolation and stacking procedure provides an approximation of a smoothed palaeoclimate record if based on a sufficient number of discontinuously sampled records. Finally, we provide an example of a stacked and spliced palaeotemperature reconstruction 15000–90 calibrated 14C yr BP based on six chironomid records from the northern and central Swiss Alps and eastern France to discuss the potential and limitations of this approach.

Exploring Growth Variability and Crown Vitality of Sessile Oak (Quercus Petraea) in the Czech Republic

Unraveling climatic effects on growth of oak - Europe’s most ecologically and economically important forest species - has been the subject of many recent studies; however, more insight based on field data is necessary to better understand the relationship between climate and tree growth and to adapt forest management strategies to future climate change. In this report, we explore the influence of temperature, precipitation and drought variability on the productivity and vitality of oak stands in the Czech Highlands. We collected 180 cores from mature oaks (Quercus petraea) at four forest stands in the Czech Drahany Highlands. Standard dendromethods were used for sample preparation, ring width measurements, cross-dating, chronology development, and the assessment of growth-climate response patterns. Crown vitality was also evaluated, using the modified ICP Forests methodology. Late spring precipitation totals between May and June as well as the mean July temperature for the year of ring formation were found to be the most important factors for oak growth, whereas crown condition was significantly affected by spring and summer drought. This study is rep-resentative for similar bio-ecological habitats across Central Europe and can serve as a dendroclima-tological blueprint for earlier periods for which detailed meteorological information is missing .

Calcareous nannofossils in sediments of the Japan Sea

Preliminary results of the biostratigraphic analysis of calcareous nannofossils recovered from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 128, Sites 798 and 799, provide clues to the Quaternary oceanography of the Japan Sea. The distribution of calcareous nannofossils from the Quaternary sediments at Site 798 (903 m water depth) may record the position of an Oceanographic frontal boundary between warm water derived from a branch of the Kuroshio Current as it entered the Japan Sea through the Tsushima Straits to the south, and colder water introduced into the western portion of the Japan Sea derived from the winter chilling of northern Japan Sea surface waters. This Oceanographic front probably oscillated north-south over Site 798 in response to glacial/interglacial cycles, or perhaps to some other climatic event or combination of events unique to the Japan Sea. During the last 1.5 m.y., six major intervals are recognized when the Oceanographic front may have been north of Site 798 separated by five major intervals when the frontal boundary may have been south of the site. These migrations were centered around approximately 0.125, 0.29, 0.56, 0.62, 0.85, 0.91, 0.98, 1.0, 1.11, and 1.5 Ma, which correspond to the boundaries separating nannofossil-rich sediments from barren or nearly barren, low-carbonate intervals. Nannofossil-rich intervals may represent times when the frontal boundary was north of Site 798, and the site was above the CCD. Barren or nearly barren intervals represent times when the frontal boundary may have been south of Site 798 and the CCD was probably higher. The distribution of calcareous nannofossils at Site 799 (2073 m water depth) appears to be controlled more by the depth of the CCD than by any climatic effects. The FOD (first occurrence datum) of Emiliania huxleyi, the LOD (last occurrence datum) of Psuedoemiliania lacunosa, Helicosphaera sellii, Calcidiscus macintyrei (10 ?m), and the FOD and LOD of Reticulofenestra asanoi are recognized from Site 798 cores. The LOD of P. lacunosa is observed in sediments from Site 799. Only in the sediments younger than 1.5 Ma are the nannofossils from Sites 798 and 799 preserved well enough and sufficiently numerous for age dating and paleoceanographic conjecture. In-situ dissolution in older sediments at both sites precludes any dating or paleoenvironmental interpretations.