A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Public Decisions: Solidarity and the Status Quo

A public decision model specifies a fixed set of alternatives A, a variable population, and a fixed set of admissible preferences over A, common to all agents. We study the implications, for any social choice function, of the principle of solidarity, in the class of all such models. The principle says that when the environment changes, all agents not responsible for the change should all be affected in the same direction: either all weakly win, or all weakly lose. We consider two formulations of this principle: population-monotonicity (Thomson, 1983); and replacement-domination (Moulin, 1987). Under weak additional requirements, but regardless of the domain of preferences considered, each of the two conditions implies (i) coalition-strategy-proofness; (ii) that the choice only depends on the set of preferences that are present in the society and not on the labels of agents, nor on the number of agents having a particular preference; (iii) that there exists a status quo point, i.e. an alternative always weakly Pareto-dominated by the alternative selected by the rule. We also prove that replacement-domination is generally at least as strong as population-monotonicity.

An Approach Towards The Development Of An Efficient Symmetric Key Encryption Scheme

n the recent years protection of information in digital form is becoming more important. Image and video encryption has applications in various fields including Internet communications, multimedia systems, medical imaging, Tele-medicine and military communications. During storage as well as in transmission, the multimedia information is being exposed to unauthorized entities unless otherwise adequate security measures are built around the information system. There are many kinds of security threats during the transmission of vital classified information through insecure communication channels. Various encryption schemes are available today to deal with information security issues. Data encryption is widely used to protect sensitive data against the security threat in the form of “attack on confidentiality”. Secure transmission of information through insecure communication channels also requires encryption at the sending side and decryption at the receiving side. Encryption of large text message and image takes time before they can be transmitted, causing considerable delay in successive transmission of information in real-time. In order to minimize the latency, efficient encryption algorithms are needed. An encryption procedure with adequate security and high throughput is sought in multimedia encryption applications. Traditional symmetric key block ciphers like Data Encryption Standard (DES), Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) and Escrowed Encryption Standard (EES) are not efficient when the data size is large. With the availability of fast computing tools and communication networks at relatively lower costs today, these encryption standards appear to be not as fast as one would like. High throughput encryption and decryption are becoming increasingly important in the area of high-speed networking. Fast encryption algorithms are needed in these days for high-speed secure communication of multimedia data. It has been shown that public key algorithms are not a substitute for symmetric-key algorithms. Public key algorithms are slow, whereas symmetric key algorithms generally run much faster. Also, public key systems are vulnerable to chosen plaintext attack. In this research work, a fast symmetric key encryption scheme, entitled “Matrix Array Symmetric Key (MASK) encryption” based on matrix and array manipulations has been conceived and developed. Fast conversion has been achieved with the use of matrix table look-up substitution, array based transposition and circular shift operations that are performed in the algorithm. MASK encryption is a new concept in symmetric key cryptography. It employs matrix and array manipulation technique using secret information and data values. It is a block cipher operated on plain text message (or image) blocks of 128 bits using a secret key of size 128 bits producing cipher text message (or cipher image) blocks of the same size. This cipher has two advantages over traditional ciphers. First, the encryption and decryption procedures are much simpler, and consequently, much faster. Second, the key avalanche effect produced in the ciphertext output is better than that of AES.

How well can we model stream phosphorus concentrations in agricultural catchments?

Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. We investigate the reasons for this for one model, INCA-P, testing model output against 18 months of daily data in a small Scottish catchment. We examine key model processes and provide recommendations for model improvement and simplification. Improvements to the particulate phosphorus simulation are especially needed. The model evaluation procedure is then generalised to provide a checklist for identifying why model performance may be poor or unreliable, incorporating calibration, data, structural and conceptual challenges. There needs to be greater recognition that current models struggle to produce positive Nash–Sutcliffe statistics in agricultural catchments when evaluated against daily data. Phosphorus modelling is difficult, but models are not as useless as this might suggest. We found a combination of correlation coefficients, bias, a comparison of distributions and a visual assessment of time series a better means of identifying realistic simulations.

Cost effectiveness of OptiMal® rapid diagnostic test for malaria in remote areas of the Amazon Region, Brazil

Abstract Background In areas with limited structure in place for microscopy diagnosis, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) have been demonstrated to be effective. Method The cost-effectiveness of the Optimal® and thick smear microscopy was estimated and compared. Data were collected on remote areas of 12 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. Data sources included the National Malaria Control Programme of the Ministry of Health, the National Healthcare System reimbursement table, hospitalization records, primary data collected from the municipalities, and scientific literature. The perspective was that of the Brazilian public health system, the analytical horizon was from the start of fever until the diagnostic results provided to patient and the temporal reference was that of year 2006. The results were expressed in costs per adequately diagnosed cases in 2006 U.S. dollars. Sensitivity analysis was performed considering key model parameters. Results In the case base scenario, considering 92% and 95% sensitivity for thick smear microscopy to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively, and 100% specificity for both species, thick smear microscopy is more costly and more effective, with an incremental cost estimated at US$549.9 per adequately diagnosed case. In sensitivity analysis, when sensitivity and specificity of microscopy for P. vivax were 0.90 and 0.98, respectively, and when its sensitivity for P. falciparum was 0.83, the RDT was more cost-effective than microscopy. Conclusion Microscopy is more cost-effective than OptiMal® in these remote areas if high accuracy of microscopy is maintained in the field. Decision regarding use of rapid tests for diagnosis of malaria in these areas depends on current microscopy accuracy in the field.

Cost-effectiveness of intensified interventions to control healthcare-associated MRSA infections -- A systematic literature review

Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus healthcare-associated infections (MRSA HAIs) are a major cause of morbidity in hospitalized patients. They pose great economic burden to hospitals caring for these patients. Intensified Interventions aim to control MRSA HAIs. Cost-effectiveness of Intensified Interventions is largely unclear. We performed a review of cost-effectiveness literature on Intensified Interventions , and provide a summary of study findings, the status of economic research in the area, and information that will help decision-makers at regional level and guide future research.^ We conducted literature search using electronic database PubMed, EBSCO, and The Cochrane Library. We limited our search to English articles published after 1999. We reviewed a total of 1,356 titles, and after applying our inclusion and exclusion criteria selected seven articles for our final review. We modified the Economic Evaluation Abstraction Form provided by CDC, and used this form to abstract data from studies.^ Of the seven selected articles two were cohort studies and the remaining five were modeling studies. They were done in various countries, in different study settings, and with different variations of the Intensified Intervention . Overall, six of the seven studies reported that Intensified Interventions were dominant or at least cost-effective in their study setting. This effect persisted on sensitivity testing.^ We identified many gaps in research in this field. The cost-effectiveness research in the field is mostly composed of modeling studies. The studies do not always clearly describe the intervention. The intervention and infection costs and the sources for these costs are not always explicit or are missing. In modeling studies, there is uncertainty associated with some key model inputs, but these inputs are not always identified. The models utilized in the modeling studies are not always tested for internal consistency or validity. Studies usually test the short term cost-effectiveness of Intensified Interventions but not the long results.^ Our study limitation was the inability to adjust for differences in study settings, intervention costs, disease costs, or effectiveness measures. Our study strength is the presentation of a focused literature review of Intensified Interventions in hospital settings. Through this study we provide information that will help decision makers at regional level, help guide future research, and might change clinical care and policies. ^

A gestão pública e a auditoria: perspectiva dos gestores sobre a importância, as funções e o papel da auditoria

Mestrado em Auditoria

Hospital-empresa : crónica de um nascimento retardado : Políticas de saúde : Em foco

RESUMO - A gestão empresarial dos hospitais é uma velha aspiração do sistema e dos profissionais da saúde em Portugal. Já o Estatuto Hospitalar de 1968 previa a organização e a gestão dos hospitais «em termos de gestão empresarial». A Lei de Bases da Saúde, de 1990, relembrava que a administração das unidades de saúde deveria obedecer a «regras de gestão empresarial». O Hospital Fernando da Fonseca, criado desde 1991, foi objecto de concessão de gestão por contrato, precedendo concurso público, a uma entidade privada, em 1995. Em 1997, o relatório do Grupo de Trabalho sobre o Estatuto Jurídico do Hospital recomendava a adopção da figura de instituto público com natureza empresarial, adequada autonomia de gestão e forte responsabilidade, podendo regular-se, em alguns domínios, por normas de direito privado. Em 1998 foi criado o Hospital de São Sebastião, em Santa Maria da Feira, com formas inovadoras de gestão, utilizando meios de gestão maleáveis. Em 1999 foi criada a Unidade Local de Saúde de Matosinhos, englobando não apenas o Hospital de Pedro Hispano, naquela cidade, mas também os quatro centros de saúde da sua área de atracção. Em 2001 foi criado o Hospital do Barlavento Algarvio, em moldes semelhantes aos do Hospital de São Sebastião. Os restantes hospitais públicos mantiveram a estrutura e regras de funcionamento convencionais. Observa-se que o modelo de gestão convencional do hospital público tem hoje consequências desfavoráveis para os cidadãos, para os profissionais que nele trabalham e também para o sistema de saúde no seu conjunto. Em 2002, uma nova lei alterou disposições da Lei de Bases da Saúde de 1990 e aprovou um novo regime jurídico de gestão hospitalar. De acordo com ele, a rede de prestação de cuidados de saúde passou a integrar vários modelos de hospitais: hospitais SPA, hospitais EPE, hospitais SA, clínicas privadas com ou sem nome de hospital, instituições e serviços geridos por entidades públicas ou privadas, mediante contrato de gestão e hospitais PPP. Analisam-se os ganhos introduzidos pelo modelo inovador de hospital SA, no que respeita ao estatuto, dotação de capital, poderes especiais, regras de controlo financeiro, regimes laborais, órgãos sociais, instrumentos de gestão e direcção técnica. Finalmente, antecipa-se um quadro analítico de oportunidades e riscos sobre este modelo. As críticas têm-se concentrado sobre a estratégia de mudança e sobre o mecanismo de escolha dos dirigentes e das respectivas chefias intermédias. Em relação à estratégia, conclui-se ser a questão mais empírica do que conceptual. Em relação à forma de identificação dos dirigentes, recomenda-se o acompanhamento crítico da experiência, salientando-se, a par do que ela pode trazer de positivo, os riscos de partidarização e instabilidade.

Modelos de gestão pública e as opções de reforma do XIX governo constitucional: análise do discurso

Dissertação de Mestrado em Gestão e Políticas Públicas

Autoritat de certificació PKI amb serveis en línia

Autoritat de certificació (CA) per l'emissió de certificats digitals en una infraestructura de clau pública (PKI) amb una interfície web bàsica.

Esquema criptogràfic : Joc electrònic remot segur - Ruleta

El sistema presentat proposa una solució de joc electrònic remot segur per a la ruleta, que usa criptografia de clan pública, certificats i signaturas digitals. Es difineix com es faran les accions, els protocols, per assegurar als participants que el joc és just i honest

XifraXat : Xat segur

XifraXat és un sistema que permet a dos usuaris gaudir d'una conversa del tot privada. Assegura la privacitat als usuaris ja que utilitza un sistema de xifra Diffie-Hellman, que com tots els sistemas de xifra pública, el xifratge el fa l'usuari a partir de les seves claus.

Implementació d'un esquema criptogràfic per gestionar remotament de forma segura els historials mèdics dels pacients

Implementació d'un esquema criptogràfic basat en PKI (Public Key Infrastructure) per a gestionar d'una manera segura dins una xarxa de comunicacions els historials mèdics dels pacients.

Implementació d'un esquema criptogràfic per gestionar de forma segura els historials mèdics dels pacients a traves d'una xarxa de comunicacions

Aquest treball presenta una solució basada en criptosistemes de clau pública, certificats i signatures digitals, emprant Java com a llenguatge de programació. Per a estendre la funcionalitat quant a seguretat del Java Developer Kit (JDK) s'utilitza la llibreria criptogràficaIAIK (Institute for Applied Information Processing and Communication).