Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Distribution of major health risks: findings from the global burden of disease study

Background Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. Methods and Findings For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. Conclusions Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

Interpersonal violence : an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa

Background Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa. Methods The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence. Results Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs. Conclusions The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.

Differences in prevalence of pre-existing morbility between injured and non-injured populations

Objectives To identify and examine differences in pre-existing morbidity between injured and non-injured population-based cohorts. Methods Administrative health data from Manitoba, Canada, were used to select a population-based cohort of injured people and a sample of non-injured people matched on age, gender, aboriginal status and geographical location of residence at the date of injury. All individuals aged 18-64 years who had been hospitalized between 1988 and 1991 for injury (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code 800-995) (n = 21032), were identified from the Manitoba discharge database. The matched non-injured comparison group comprised individuals randomly selected 1: 1 from the Manitoba population registry. Morbidity data for the 12 months prior to the date of the injury were obtained by linking the two cohorts with all hospital discharge records and physician claims. Results Compared to the non-injured group, injured people had higher Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, 1.9 times higher rates of hospital admissions and 1.7 times higher rates of physician claims in the year prior to the injury. Injured people had a rate of admissions to hospital for a mental health disorder 9.3 times higher, and physician claims for a mental health disorder 3.5 times higher, than that of non-injured people. These differences were all statistically significant (P < 0.001). Conclusion Injured people were shown to differ from the general non-injured population in terms of pre-existing morbidity. Existing population estimates of the attributable burden of injury that are obtained by extrapolating from observed outcomes in samples of injured cases may overestimate the magnitude of the problem.

The burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders as risk factors for suicide : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010's mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders. Methods Relative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty). Results Mental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8-29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5-44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%-60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%-0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20-30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%-8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%-9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden. Conclusions Capturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide prevention.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To quantify the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000. Design The absolute difference between observed lung cancer death rate and the level in non-smokers, adjusted for occupational and indoor exposure to lung carcinogens, was used to estimate the proportion of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking and the smoking impact ratio (SIR). The SIR was substituted for smoking prevalence in the attributable fraction formula for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cancers to allow for the long lag between exposure and outcome. Assuming a shorter lag between exposure and disease, the current prevalence of smoking was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAF) for the other outcomes. Relative risks (RR) from the American Cancer Society cancer prevention study (CPS-II) were used to calculate PAF. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung and other cancers, COPD, cardiovascular conditions, respiratory tuberculosis, and other respiratory and medical conditions. Results Smoking caused between 41 632 and 46 656 deaths in South Africa, accounting for 8.0 - 9.0% of deaths and 3.7 - 4.3% of DALYs in 2000. Smoking ranked third (after unsafe sex/sexually transmitted disease and high blood pressure) in terms of mortality among 17 risk factors evaluated. Three times as many males as females died from smoking. Lung cancer had the largest attributable fraction due to smoking. However, cardiovascular diseases accounted for the largest proportion of deaths attributed to smoking. Conclusion Cigarette smoking accounts for a large burden of preventable disease in South Africa. While the government has taken bold legislative action to discourage tobacco use since 1994, it still remains a major public health priority.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight in South Africa in 2000

Objective. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight using the body mass index (BMI), by age and sex, in South Africa in 2000. Design. World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Re-analysis of the 1998 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey data provided mean BMI estimates by age and sex. Populationattributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults 30 years of age. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, hypertensive disease, osteoarthritis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and selected cancers. Results. Overall, 87% of type 2 diabetes, 68% of hypertensive disease, 61% of endometrial cancer, 45% of ischaemic stroke, 38% of ischaemic heart disease, 31% of kidney cancer, 24% of osteoarthritis, 17% of colon cancer, and 13% of postmenopausal breast cancer were attributable to a BMI 21 kg/m2. Excess body weight is estimated to have caused 36 504 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 31 018 - 38 637) or 7% (95% uncertainty interval 6.0 - 7.4%) of all deaths in 2000, and 462 338 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 396 512 - 478 847) or 2.9% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 3.0%). The burden in females was approximately double that in males. Conclusions. This study shows the importance of recognising excess body weight as a major risk to health, particularly among females, highlighting the need to develop, implement and evaluate comprehensive interventions to achieve lasting change in the determinants and impact of excess body weight.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. Design. The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Results. Overall in adults ≥ 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17 037 (95% uncertainty interval 11 394 - 20 407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176 252 (95% uncertainty interval 133 733 - 203 628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. Conclusions. Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to unsafe water and lack of sanitation and hygiene in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) by age group for South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology was used to estimate the disease burden attributable to an exposure by comparing the observed risk factor distribution with a theoretical lowest possible population distribution. A scenario-based approach was applied for estimating diarrhoeal disease burden from unsafe WSH. Six exposure scenarios were defined based on the type of water and sanitation infrastructure and environmental faecal-oral pathogen load. For ‘intestinal parasites’ and schistosomiasis, the burden was assumed to be 100% attributable to exposure to unsafe WSH. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Disease burden from diarrhoeal diseases, intestinal parasites and schistosomiasis, measured by deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results 13 434 deaths were attributable to unsafe WSH accounting for 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 2.7%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. The burden was especially high in children under 5 years, accounting for 9.3% of total deaths in this age group and 7.4% of burden of disease. Overall, the burden due to unsafe WSH was equivalent to 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 2.5 - 2.7%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, ranking this risk factor seventh for the country. Conclusions Unsafe WSH remains an important risk factor for disease in South Africa, especially in children under 5. High priority needs to be given to the provision of safe and sustainable sanitation and water facilities and to promoting safe hygiene behaviours, particularly among children.

Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in GBD 2010, we systematically reviewed epidemiological data and used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, to model prevalence by age, sex, country, region, and year. We obtained disability weights from representative community surveys and an internet-based survey to calculate YLDs. We calculated premature mortality as YLLs from cause of death estimates for 1980–2010 for 20 age groups, both sexes, and 187 countries. We derived DALYs from the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We adjusted burden estimates for comorbidity and present them with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2010, mental and substance use disorders accounted for 183·9 million DALYs (95% UI 153·5 million–216·7 million), or 7·4% (6·2–8·6) of all DALYs worldwide. Such disorders accounted for 8·6 million YLLs (6·5 million–12·1 million; 0·5% [0·4–0·7] of all YLLs) and 175·3 million YLDs (144·5 million–207·8 million; 22·9% [18·6–27·2] of all YLDs). Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of YLDs worldwide. Depressive disorders accounted for 40·5% (31·7–49·2) of DALYs caused by mental and substance use disorders, with anxiety disorders accounting for 14·6% (11·2–18·4), illicit drug use disorders for 10·9% (8·9–13·2), alcohol use disorders for 9·6% (7·7–11·8), schizophrenia for 7·4% (5·0–9·8), bipolar disorder for 7·0% (4·4–10·3), pervasive developmental disorders for 4·2% (3·2–5·3), childhood behavioural disorders for 3·4% (2·2–4·7), and eating disorders for 1·2% (0·9–1·5). DALYs varied by age and sex, with the highest proportion of total DALYs occurring in people aged 10–29 years. The burden of mental and substance use disorders increased by 37·6% between 1990 and 2010, which for most disorders was driven by population growth and ageing. Interpretation Despite the apparently small contribution of YLLs—with deaths in people with mental disorders coded to the physical cause of death and suicide coded to the category of injuries under self-harm—our findings show the striking and growing challenge that these disorders pose for health systems in developed and developing regions. In view of the magnitude of their contribution, improvement in population health is only possible if countries make the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders a public health priority.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to diabetes in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the burden of disease attributable to diabetes by sex and age group in South Africa in 2000. DESIGN The framework adopted for the most recent World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies used to derive the prevalence of diabetes by population group were weighted proportionately for a national estimate. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Adults 30 years and older. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and renal failure. RESULTS Of South Africans aged >or= 30 years, 5.5% had diabetes which increased with age. Overall, about 14% of IHD, 10% of stroke, 12% of hypertensive disease and 12% of renal disease burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to diabetes. Diabetes was estimated to have caused 22,412 (95% uncertainty interval 20,755 - 24,872) or 4.3% (95% uncertainty interval 4.0 - 4.8%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most of these occurred in middle or old age, the loss of healthy life years comprises a smaller proportion of the total 258,028 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 236,856 - 290,849) in South Africa in 2000, accounting for 1.6% (95% uncertainty interval 1.5 - 1.8%) of the total burden. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes is an important direct and indirect cause of burden in South Africa. Primary prevention of the disease through multi-level interventions and improved management at primary health care level are needed.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to iron deficiency anaemia in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the extent of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) among children aged 0 - 4 years and pregnant women aged 15 - 49 years, and the burden of disease attributed to IDA in South Africa in 2000. DESIGN The comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization (WHO) was followed using local prevalence and burden estimates. IDA prevalence came from re-analysis of the South African Vitamin A Consultative Group study in the case of the children, and from a pooled estimate from several studies in the case of the pregnant women (haemoglobin level < 11 g/dl and ferritin level < 12 microg/l). Monte Carlo simulation-modelling was used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years and pregnant women 15 - 49 years. OUTCOME MEASURES Direct sequelae of IDA, maternal and perinatal deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from mild mental disability related to IDA. Results. It is estimated that 5.1% of children and 9 - 12% of pregnant women had IDA and that about 7.3% of perinatal deaths and 4.9% of maternal deaths were attributed to IDA in 2000. Overall, about 174,976 (95% uncertainty interval 150,344 - 203,961) healthy years of life lost (YLLs), or between 0.9% and 1.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000, were attributable to IDA. CONCLUSIONS This first study in South Africa to quantify the burden from IDA suggests that it is a less serious public health problem in South Africa than in many other developing countries. Nevertheless, this burden is preventable, and the study highlights the need to disseminate the food-based dietary guidelines formulated by the National Department of Health to people who need them and to monitor the impact of the food fortification programme.

Burden attributable to child maltreatment in Australia

Child maltreatment is a complex phenomenon, with four main types (childhood sexual abuse, physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect) highly interrelated. All types of maltreatment have been linked to adverse health consequences and exposure to multiple forms of maltreatment increases risk. In Australia to date, only burden attributable to childhood sexual abuse has been estimated. This study synthesized the national evidence and quantified the burden attributable to the four main types of child maltreatment. Meta-analyses, based on quality-effects models, generated pooled prevalence estimates for each maltreatment type. Exposure to child maltreatment was examined as a risk factor for depressive disorders, anxiety disorders and intentional self-harm using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made for co-occurrence of multiple forms of child maltreatment. Overall, an estimated 23.5% of self-harm, 20.9% of anxiety disorders and 15.7% of depressive disorders burden in males; and 33.0% of self-harm, 30.6% of anxiety disorders and 22.8% of depressive disorders burden in females was attributable to child maltreatment. Child maltreatment was estimated to cause 1.4% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4–2.3%) of all disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in males, and 2.4% (0.7–4.1%) of all DALYs in females in Australia in 2010. Child maltreatment contributes to a substantial proportion of burden from depressive and anxiety disorders and intentional self-harm in Australia. This study demonstrates the importance of including all forms of child maltreatment as risk factors in future burden of disease studies.

Incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index in 30 European countries

Excess adiposity is associated with increased risks of developing adult malignancies. To inform public health policy and guide further research, the incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index (BMI >or= 25 kg/m(2)) across 30 European countries were estimated. Population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated using European- and gender-specific risk estimates from a published meta-analysis and gender-specific mean BMI estimates from a World Health Organization Global Infobase. Country-specific numbers of new cancers were derived from Globocan2002. A ten-year lag-period between risk exposure and cancer incidence was assumed and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated in Monte Carlo simulations. In 2002, there were 2,171,351 new all cancer diagnoses in the 30 countries of Europe. Estimated PARs were 2.5% (95% CI 1.5-3.6%) in men and 4.1% (2.3-5.9%) in women. These collectively corresponded to 70,288 (95% CI 40,069-100,668) new cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed estimates were most influenced by the assumed shape of the BMI distribution in the population and cancer-specific risk estimates. In a scenario analysis of a plausible contemporary (2008) population, the estimated PARs increased to 3.2% (2.1-4.3%) and 8.6% (5.6-11.5%), respectively, in men and women. Endometrial, post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancers accounted for 65% of these cancers. This analysis quantifies the burden of incident cancers attributable to excess BMI in Europe. The estimates reported here provide a baseline for future modelling, and underline the need for research into interventions to control weight in the context of endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer.