Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

Using public procurement to achieve social outcomes

The use of public procurement to achieve social outcomes is widespread, but detailed information about how it operates is often sketchy and difficult to find. This article is essentially a mapping exercise, describing the history and current use Of government contracting as a tool of social regulation, what the author calls the issue of 'linkage'. The article considers the popularity of linkage in the I 9,h century in Europe and North America, particularly in dealing with issues of labour standards and unemployment. The use of linkage expanded during the 20(th) century, initially to include the provision of employment opportunities to disabled workers. During and after World War 11, the use of linkage became particularly important in the United States in addressing racial equality, in the requirements for non-discrimination in contracts, and in affirmative action and set-asides for minority businesses. Subsequently, the role of procurement spread both in its geographical coverage and in the subject areas of social policy that it was used to promote. The article considers examples of the use of procurement to promote equality on the basis of ethnicity and gender drawn from Malaysia, South Africa, Canada, and the European Community. More recently, procurement has been used as an instrument to promote human rights transnationally, also by international organizations such as the International Labour Organisation. The article includes some reflections on the relationship between 'green' procurement, 'social' procurement, and sustainable development, and recent attempts to develop the concept of 'sustainable procurement.

Mediastinitis post revascularización miocárdica: impacto del cambio de profilaxis antibiótica en la fundación Cardioinfantil 2012 - 2013

INTRODUCCIÓN. La mediastinitis posterior a cirugía de revascularización miocárdica es una infección infrecuente, pero potencialmente fatal. En la Fundación Cardioinfantil se ha observado una tendencia al incremento de la misma en los últimos años, obligando a un cambio en las medidas de profilaxis antimicrobiana, pasando de cefalosporinas a vancomicina – gentamicina, sin embargo no se conoce aún el impacto de estas medidas. OBJETIVO: Determinar si el cambio de la profilaxis antibiótica en pacientes sometidos a revascularización miocárdica influye en una disminución de la incidencia de mediastinitis durante los años 2012 – 2013. METODOLOGÍA: Estudio de cohortes retrospectivo, evaluando la incidencia de mediastinitis post revascularización miocárdica, en pacientes expuestos a 2 diferentes tipos de profilaxis antimicrobiana (cefalosporinas vs vancomicina-gentamicina). Se describieron los patrones de susceptibilidad y resistencia de los patógenos encontrados en mediastinitis y la mortalidad de esta patología. RESULTADOS: Los patógenos más frecuentemente aislados en la mediastinitis fueron Staphylococcus aureus y Klebsiella pneumoniae, en la mayoría monomicrobiano. Se encontraron patógenos con perfiles de resistencia como betalactamasas de espectro extendido en Gram negativos y resistencia a la meticilina en cocos Gram positivos. El RR de mediastinitis del grupo expuesto a vancomicina-gentamicina respecto al grupo de cefalosporinas fue de 0,9 con IC 95% 0,28 – 3,28. CONCLUSIÓN: la epidemiologia microbiana de la mediastinitis no difiere de la reportada en otras series. La profilaxis antimicrobiana con vancomicina - gentamicina en pacientes sometidos a revascularización miocárdica, no redujo la incidencia de mediastinitis. Se propone regresar a la terapia de profilaxis con cefalosporinas.

Procedural Meaning Explicatures in the Development of New Subordination Strategies in Romance

The sociocultural changes that led to the genesis of Romance languages widened the gap between oral and written patterns, which display different discoursive and linguistic devices. In early documents, discoursive implicatures connecting propositions were not generally codified, so that the reader should furnish the correct interpretation according to his own perception of real facts; which can still be attested in current oral utterances. Once Romance languages had undergone several levelling processes which concluded in the first standardizations, implicatures became explicatures and were syntactically codified by means of univocal new complex conjunctions. As a consequence of the emergence of these new subordination strategies, a freer distribution of the information conveyed by the utterances is allowed. The success of complex structural patterns ran alongside of the genesis of new narrative genres and the generalization of a learned rhetoric. Both facts are a spontaneous effect of new approaches to the act of reading. Ancient texts were written to be read to a wide audience, whereas those printed by the end of the XV th century were conceived to be read quietly, in a low voice, by a private reader. The goal of this paper is twofold, since we will show that: a) The development of new complex conjunctions through the history of Romance languages accommodates to four structural patterns that range from parataxis to hypotaxis. b) This development is a reflex of the well known grammaticalization path from discourse to syntax that implies the codification of discoursive strategies (Givón 2 1979, Sperber and Wilson 1986, Carston 1988, Grice 1989, Bach 1994, Blackemore 2002, among others]

Guerra, pàtria i estadística: el despertar polític dels hisendats gironins (1795-1800)

Sobre l'emergència i presa de consciència d'una classe dirigent a la societat gironina de finals del segle XVIII

Literatura popularista moderna al País Valencià: darreres edicions i aportacions [Ressenyes de dos volums de la col·lecció ‘Biblioteca d’Autors Valencians']

Ressenyes de dos volums de la col·lecció ‘Biblioteca d’Autors Valencians’ dedicats a autors i obres dels segles XVII i XVIII. D’una banda es comenta l’ edició l’ any 1995 d’Antoni Ferrando Francés dels versos del porta barroc Pere Jacint Morlà i d’altra, l’ edició l’any 1996 de Joaquim Martí Mestre sobre els col·loquis valencians eròtico-burlescos del segle XVIII

Long-term variations in the magnetic field of the Sun and possible implications for terrestrial climate

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.

Flerskiktat papper : en sammanställning av historia, teknik och forskningsresultat

Until the beginning of the 1900:th century the paper making process was handicraft. The paper machines that have been developed since then are as impressing in size as fascinating when it comes to the technique. The process has always been improved to give a better paper for lower costs, with as short manufacture time as possible. Stratified forming has been a reality since 1830. From the beginning it was applied to board and paperboard. Now it is also the most common method for making tissue and one paper mill in Austria use it for fine paper. Stratified forming can be categorized as separate forming or simultaneous forming. Separate forming means using several headboxes and sometimes even several wires. Simultaneous forming means using only one stratified headbox. This method has many advantages over separate forming, inter alia improved economy, quality, wood exchange and higher runability of the paper machine. Several experiments have been done with simultaneous forming of different fibres by placing a fibre with high bulk in the middle layer and a smooth fibre on the surface layers. The results has shown that by using this method both the bending stiffness and surface properties are improved, or a lower grammage paper is obtained with maintaining quality. Simultaneous forming can also be used to stratify fillers in layers where they are most efficient. In that way both paper quality and economy is improved. Simultaneous forming is also used for fractionated pulp. Fractionation means separating springwood fibre from summerwood fibre, and placing them in separate layers. Research results of fractionated pulp show about the same result as simultaneous forming of different fibres.

Theoretical and empirical essays on microeconometrics

This Master Thesis consists of one theoretical article and one empirical article on the field of Microeconometrics. The first chapter\footnote{We also thank useful suggestions by Marinho Bertanha, Gabriel Cepaluni, Brigham Frandsen, Dalia Ghanem, Ricardo Masini, Marcela Mello, Áureo de Paula, Cristine Pinto, Edson Severnini and seminar participants at São Paulo School of Economics, the California Econometrics Conference 2015 and the 37\textsuperscript{th} Brazilian Meeting of Econometrics.}, called \emph{Synthetic Control Estimator: A Generalized Inference Procedure and Confidence Sets}, contributes to the literature about inference techniques of the Synthetic Control Method. This methodology was proposed to answer questions involving counterfactuals when only one treated unit and a few control units are observed. Although this method was applied in many empirical works, the formal theory behind its inference procedure is still an open question. In order to fulfill this lacuna, we make clear the sufficient hypotheses that guarantee the adequacy of Fisher's Exact Hypothesis Testing Procedure for panel data, allowing us to test any \emph{sharp null hypothesis} and, consequently, to propose a new way to estimate Confidence Sets for the Synthetic Control Estimator by inverting a test statistic, the first confidence set when we have access only to finite sample, aggregate level data whose cross-sectional dimension may be larger than its time dimension. Moreover, we analyze the size and the power of the proposed test with a Monte Carlo experiment and find that test statistics that use the synthetic control method outperforms test statistics commonly used in the evaluation literature. We also extend our framework for the cases when we observe more than one outcome of interest (simultaneous hypothesis testing) or more than one treated unit (pooled intervention effect) and when heteroskedasticity is present. The second chapter, called \emph{Free Economic Area of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method}, is an empirical article. We apply the synthetic control method for Brazilian city-level data during the 20\textsuperscript{th} Century in order to evaluate the economic impact of the Free Economic Area of Manaus (FEAM). We find that this enterprise zone had positive significant effects on Real GDP per capita and Services Total Production per capita, but it also had negative significant effects on Agriculture Total Production per capita. Our results suggest that this subsidy policy achieve its goal of promoting regional economic growth, even though it may have provoked mis-allocation of resources among economic sectors.

Revolucionarios y bandidos: La trayectoria villista en la Revolución Mexicana

In the last decades of the 19 th century the Mexican society went through a period of political and economical stability, and relative social tranquility. On contrast, during the revolutionary context various armed movements promoted the disruption of this status quo. In this article, by the analysis of several testimonies, I intend to show some aspects regarding criminality and violence phenomena, during the 1910 and 1920 years on the Northern Mexico.

Senso crítico em estudantes de administração de empresas com habilitação em marketing

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FFC

Ensino de eletrostática: a história da ciência contribuindo para a aquisição de subsunções

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O método analítico para o ensino de leitura em Série de leitura Proença (1926-1928), de Antonio Firmino Proença

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)