Office of Government Ethics : standards of ethical conduct for employees of the executive branch.

Mode of access: Internet.

Regional growth, structural change, and natural disaster

Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other serious natural hazards have been attributed with causing changes in regional economic growth, income, employment, and wealth. Natural disasters are said to cause; (1) an acceleration of existing economic trends; (2) an expansion of employment and income, due to recovery operations (the so-called silver lining); and (3) an alteration in the structure of regional economic activity due to changes in "intra" and "inter" regional trading patterns, and technological change.^ Theoretical and stylized disaster simulations (Cochrane 1975; Haas, Cochrane, and Kates 1977; Petak et al. 1982; Ellson et al. 1983, 1984; Boisvert 1992; Brookshire and McKee 1992) point towards a wide scope of possible negative and long lasting impacts upon economic activity and structure. This work examines the consequences of Hurricane Andrew on Dade County's economy. Following the work of Ellson et al. (1984), Guimaraes et al. (1993), and West and Lenze (1993; 1994), a regional econometric forecasting model (DCEFM) using a framework of "with" and "without" the hurricane is constructed and utilized to assess Hurricane Andrew's impact on the structure and level of economic activity in Dade County, Florida.^ The results of the simulation exercises show that the direct economic impact associated with Hurricane Andrew on Dade County is of short duration, and of isolated sectoral impact, with impact generally limited to construction, TCP (transportation, communications, and public utilities), and agricultural sectors. Regional growth, and changes in income and employment reacted directly to, and within the range and direction set by national economic activity. The simulations also lead to the conclusion that areal extent, infrastructure, and sector specific damages or impacts, as opposed to monetary losses, are the primary determinants of a disaster's effects upon employment, income, growth, and economic structure. ^

A evolução técnica e orgânica das Unidades de Manobra de Cavalaria no pós-Guerra Fria (1993-2015)

A Guerra e os Exércitos que nela tomam parte, nunca se mantiveram como imutáveis ao longo de séculos de História Militar. Analisando os últimos 22 anos, verifica-se que existiram alterações vividas no contexto Político-Militar Internacional que, por sua vez, repercutiram-se e moldaram a conjetura nacional. São diversas as modificações reproduzindo-se em diversos níveis das estruturas Militares e, consequentemente, afetando a Arma de Cavalaria, também ela marcadamente alvo de alterações. Com o intuito de estudar parte dessas mesmas alterações, surge o presente relatório subordinando-se ao tema A evolução Técnica e Orgânica das Unidades de Manobra de Cavalaria no pós-Guerra Fria (1993-2015), enquadrado no Mestrado em Cavalaria ministrado pela Academia Militar. Com a elaboração do presente relatório, pretende-se concorrer para identificar uma parte relevante das alterações sofridas pelas Unidades de Manobra de Cavalaria, aos níveis técnico e orgânico, desde o fim da Guerra Fria até à atualidade. Com vista a alcançar este objetivo, numa abordagem dedutiva estudam-se as Unidades de Manobra da Cavalaria do Escalão Grupo até ao Escalão Pelotão e compara-se a sua evolução nos últimos 22 anos, mediante duas variáveis distintas. A primeira ao nível Orgânico, onde são abordados itens como a Composição Esquemática e o número de Efetivos explanados nos Quadros Orgânicos das respetivas Unidades. A segunda variável ao nível dos Principais Sistemas de Armas que equiparam e equipam as Unidades em estudo. Nesta variável são estudados itens como a Mobilidade e o Poder de Fogo desses mesmos Sistemas de Armas. No sentido de operacionalizar a comparação acima referida foi empregue o Método de Procedimento Comparativo, numa abordagem Mista, onde são utilizados dados recolhidos através de Análise Documental e de Pesquisa Bibliográfica. O Relatório inicia-se com um breve Quadro Conceptual, apresentando-se de seguida uma síntese relativa ao contexto Político-Militar Internacional vivido na Guerra Fria e Pós-Guerra Fria. Posteriormente, são apresentadas as Unidades de Manobra de Cavalaria e todos os resultados referentes à pesquisa. Fruto da análise feita, são várias as conclusões que foram sendo determinadas. Com respeito à Orgânica, conclui-se que existiram alterações significativas aos Quadros Orgânicos nos anos de 1993, 2006, 2009 e 2015. Neste âmbito, destacam-se ao Escalão Grupo a extinção do Grupo de Auto Metralhadoras e a criação do Grupo de Reconhecimento. Salientam-se ao Escalão Esquadrão mudanças na Composição Esquemática das Unidades, denotando-se ainda uma tendência para a diminuição dos meios que equipam as Unidades de Reconhecimento aprontadas pelo Regimento de Cavalaria 6 e Quartel de Cavalaria. O decréscimo dos Efetivos também é uma alteração patente nos 23 anos estudados. No que concerne aos Sistemas de Armas, salienta-se o Grupo de Carros de Combate como a Unidade com a maior evolução sofrida devido à transição por três Carros de Combate distintos durante o período em estudo. Verifica-se ainda uma disparidade entre os Sistemas de Armas que atualmente equipam as Unidades de Reconhecimento sediadas no Regimento de Cavalaria 6 e o Quartel de Cavalaria.

Error, Bias, and Long-Branch Attraction in Data for Two Chloroplast Photosystem Genes in Seed Plants

Sequences of two chloroplast photosystem genes, psaA and psbB, together comprising about 3,500 bp, were obtained for all five major groups of extant seed plants and several outgroups among other vascular plants. Strongly supported, but significantly conflicting, phylogenetic signals were obtained in parsimony analyses from partitions of the data into first and second codon positions versus third positions. In the former, both genes agreed on a monophyletic gymnosperms, with Gnetales closely related to certain conifers. In the latter, Gnetales are inferred to be the sister group of all other seed plants, with gymnosperms paraphyletic. None of the data supported the modern ‘‘anthophyte hypothesis,’’ which places Gnetales as the sister group of flowering plants. A series of simulation studies were undertaken to examine the error rate for parsimony inference. Three kinds of errors were examined: random error, systematic bias (both properties of finite data sets), and statistical inconsistency owing to long-branch attraction (an asymptotic property). Parsimony reconstructions were extremely biased for third-position data for psbB. Regardless of the true underlying tree, a tree in which Gnetales are sister to all other seed plants was likely to be reconstructed for these data. None of the combinations of genes or partitions permits the anthophyte tree to be reconstructed with high probability. Simulations of progressively larger data sets indicate the existence of long-branch attraction (statistical inconsistency) for third-position psbB data if either the anthophyte tree or the gymnosperm tree is correct. This is also true for the anthophyte tree using either psaA third positions or psbB first and second positions. A factor contributing to bias and inconsistency is extremely short branches at the base of the seed plant radiation, coupled with extremely high rates in Gnetales and nonseed plant outgroups. M. J. Sanderson,* M. F. Wojciechowski,*† J.-M. Hu,* T. Sher Khan,* and S. G. Brady

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0902, February 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Report Hello fellow AITPM members, Welcome to the first edition of the AITPM National Newsletter for 2009! I trust we all had a relaxing break and managed to lose track of all things transport for just a little while. I know I had trouble doing so when hunting for a car space at the shopping centre, and experiencing new projects such as the Tugun Bypass – the new gateway between New South Wales and Queensland. Byron Bay is now as close as Noosa for those high profile beach goers of Brisbane. There was also my experience of the reduced posted speed of 90km/h on the Bruce Highway around the troublesome Gympie stretch, when returning from a short Fraser Coast holiday. I expect that this relatively inexpensive safety improvement will pay substantial dividends in terms of crash reduction. The Newsletter took its annual leave last month and is refreshed and ready for a new year to keep us all informed of the latest in traffic and transport engineering, planning and management. I would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the ongoing significant contributions of many volunteers in the Newsletter’s production. Mr Andrew Hulse, AITPM’s Immediate Past National President, serves as the Editorial Coordinator on behalf of the Institute. Each Branch Committee also includes a Newsletter Coordinator and committee members frequently contribute as well. And the ongoing contributions of readers enable us to offer the Newsletter as a vehicle for dialogue and debate around our sector. If you would like to contribute please email AITPM’s administration officer Josephine Mitton at aitpm@aitpm.com or through your local Branch Committee. I would also like to welcome back on deck our Editor, Mr David Brown of Driven Media, who creates a fantastic package for us each month. Lastly, members would have received the Call for Papers for the AITPM 2009 National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, to be held at the Adelaide Convention Centre between 5 – 7 August. Abstracts will be accepted up to 20 February 2009. We look forward to seeing everyone at this, our flagship event for the year. To all a good year ahead, Jon Bunker Post Script: We all will have seen through the media the enormous scale and nature of the two natural disasters Australia is experiencing at present. AITPM’s thoughts are with all of those members, family and friends who may be experiencing hardship as a result of the Victorian bushfires and North Queensland floods. AITPM is a not for profit organisation however the National Executive has taken the decision to donate in measure to the Red Cross Victorian Bushfire Disaster Relief fund and the Queensland Premier’s Disaster Relief fund as a gesture to support our fellow Australians in their time of need. Details about these funds can be found via the Victorian and Queensland Governments’ websites.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0904, April 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Report Hello fellow AITPM members, A few weeks ago we saw another example of all levels of Government pulling together in real time to try to deal with a major transport incident, this time it was container loads of ammonium nitrate falling off the Pacific Adventurer during Cyclone Hamish and the associated major oil spill due to piercing of its hull off Moreton Bay in southern Queensland. The oil spill was extensive, affecting beaches and estuaries from Moreton Island north to the Sunshine Coast; a coastal stretch of at least 60km. We saw the Queensland Government, Brisbane, Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast Regional Council crews deployed quickly once the gravity of the situation was realised to clean up toxic oil on beaches and prevent extensive upstream contamination. Environmental agencies public and private were quick to respond to help affected wildlife. The Navy’s HMAS Yarra and another minesweeper were deployed to search for the containers in the coastal area in an effort to have them salvaged before all ammonium nitrate could leach into and harm marine habitat, which would have a substantial impact not only on that environment but also the fishing industry. all of this during the final fortnight before a State election.) While this could be branded as a maritime problem, the road transport and logistics system was crucial to the cleanup. The private vehicular ferries were enlisted to transport plant and equipment from Brisbane to Moreton Island. The plant themselves, such as graders, were drawn from road building and maintenance inventory. Hundreds of Councils’ staff were released from other activities to undertake the cleanup. While it will take some time for us to know the long term impacts of this incident, it seems difficult to fault “grassroots” government crews and their private counterparts, such as Island tourism staff, in the initial cleanup effort. From a traffic planning and management perspective, we should also remember that this sort of incident has happened on road and rail corridors in the past, albeit on lesser scales. It underlines that we do need to continue to protect communities, commercial interests, and the environment through rigorous heavy vehicle management, planning and management of dangerous goods routesincluding rail corridors through urban areas), and carefully considered incident and disaster recovery plans and protocols. I’d like to close in reminding everyone again that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. SA Branch President Paul Morris informs me that we have had over 50 paper submissions to date, from which a very balanced and informative programme of sessions has been prepared. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

Surviving the Titanic disaster : economic, natural and social determinants

The sinking of the Titanic in April 1912 took the lives of 68 percent of the people aboard. Who survived? It was women and children who had a higher probability of being saved, not men. Likewise, people traveling in first class had a better chance of survival than those in second and third class. British passengers were more likely to perish than members of other nations. This extreme event represents a rare case of a well-documented life and death situation where social norms were enforced. This paper shows that economic analysis can account for human behavior in such situations.

On ensuring continuity of mobile communications in a disaster environment

Natural disasters and deliberate, willful damage to telecommunication infrastructure can result in a loss of critical voice and data services. This loss of service hinders the ability for efficient emergency response and can cause delays leading to loss of life. Current mobile devices are generally tied to one network operator. When a disaster is of significant impact, that network operator cannot be relied upon to provide service and coverage levels that would normally exist. While some operators have agreements with other operators to share resources (such as network roaming) these agreements are contractual in nature and cannot be activated quickly in an emergency. This paper introduces Fourth Generation (4G) wireless networks. 4G networks are highly mobile and heterogeneous, which makes 4G networks highly resilient in times of disaster.

Protecting the protectors : legal liabilities from the use of Web 2.0 for Australian disaster response

The traditional model for information dissemination in disaster response is unidirectional from official channels to the public. However recent crises in the US, such as Hurricane Katrina and the Californian Bushfires show that civilians are now turning to Web 2.0 technologies as a means of sharing disaster related information. These technologies present enormous potential benefits to disaster response authorities that cannot be overlooked. In Australia, the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission has recently recommended that Australian disaster response authorities utilize information technologies to improve the dissemination of disaster related, bushfire information. However, whilst the use of these technologies has many positive attributes, potential legal liabilities for disaster response authorities arise. This paper identifies some potential legal liabilities arising from the use of Web 2.0 technologies in disaster response situations thereby enhancing crisis related information sharing by highlighting legal concerns that need to be addressed.

Flood fatalities in contemporary Australia (1997-2008) : disaster medicine

Objective: Flood is the most common natural disaster in Australia and causes more loss of life than any other disaster. This article describes the incidence and causes of deaths directly associated with floods in contemporary Australia. ---------- Methods: The present study compiled a database of flood fatalities in Australia in the period of 1997–2008 inclusive. The data were derived from newspapers and historic accounts, as well as government and scientific reports. Assembled data include the date and location of fatalities, age and gender of victims and the circumstances of the death. ---------- Results: At least 73 persons died as a direct result of floods in Australia in the period of 1997–2008. The largest number of fatalities occurred in New South Wales and Queensland. Most fatalities occurred during February, and among men (71.2%). People between the ages of 10 and 29 and those over 70 years are overrepresented among those drowned. There is no evident decline in the number of deaths over time. 48.5% fatalities related to motor vehicle use. 26.5% fatalities occurred as a result of inappropriate or high-risk behaviour during floods. ---------- Conclusion: In modern developed countries with adequate emergency response systems and extensive resources, deaths that occur in floods are almost all eminently preventable. Over 90% of the deaths are caused by attempts to ford flooded waterways or inappropriate situational conduct. Knowledge of the leading causes of flood fatalities should inform public awareness programmes and public safety police enforcement activities.

A national framework for disaster health education in Australia

INTRODUCTION: Recent events have heightened awareness of disaster health issues and the need to prepare the health workforce to plan for and respond to major incidents. This has been reinforced at an international level by the World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine, which has proposed an international educational framework. ----------- OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to outline the development of a national educational framework for disaster health in Australia. ----------- METHODS: The framework was developed on the basis of the literature and the previous experience of members of a National Collaborative for Disaster Health Education and Research. The Collaborative was brought together in a series of workshops and teleconferences, utilizing a modified Delphi technique to finalize the content at each level of the framework and to assign a value to the inclusion of that content at the various levels. ----------- FRAMEWORK: The framework identifies seven educational levels along with educational outcomes for each level. The framework also identifies the recommended contents at each level and assigns a rating of depth for each component. The framework is not intended as a detailed curriculum, but rather as a guide for educationalists to develop specific programs at each level. ----------- CONCLUSIONS: This educational framework will provide an infrastructure around which future educational programs in Disaster Health in Australia may be designed and delivered. It will permit improved articulation for students between the various levels and greater consistency between programs so that operational responders may have a consistent language and operational approach to the management of major events.

Vulnerability factors for disaster-induced child post-traumatic stress disorder : the case for low family resilience and previous mental illness

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate whether parent report of family resilience predicted children’s disaster-induced post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and general emotional symptoms, independent of a broad range of variables including event-related factors, previous child mental illness and social connectedness. ---------- Methods: A total of 568 children (mean age = 10.2 years, SD = 1.3) who attended public primary schools, were screened 3 months after Cyclone Larry devastated the Innisfail region of North Queensland. Measures included parent report on the Family Resilience Measure and Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ)–emotional subscale and child report on the PTSD Reaction Index, measures of event exposure and social connectedness. ---------- Results: Sixty-four students (11.3%) were in the severe–very severe PTSD category and 53 families (28.6%) scored in the poor family resilience range. A lower family resilience score was associated with child emotional problems on the SDQ and longer duration of previous child mental health difficulties, but not disaster-induced child PTSD or child threat perception on either bivariate analysis, or as a main or moderator variable on multivariate analysis (main effect: adjusted odds ratio (ORadj) = 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.13–2.44). Similarly, previous mental illness was not a significant predictor of child PTSD in the multivariate model (ORadj = 0.75, 95%CI = 0.16–3.61). ---------- Conclusion: In this post-disaster sample children with existing mental health problems and those of low-resilience families were not at elevated risk of PTSD. The possibility that the aetiological model of disaster-induced child PTSD may differ from usual child and adolescent conceptualizations is discussed.

The CAPA Indigenous Project. Indigenous postgraduate education: A project into the barriers which indigenous students must overcome in postgraduate studies: A short history 1993-2000.

This brief paper outlines some of the early work undertaken in Indigenous postgraduate activism in Australia. In particular, the work undertaken in the lead up to the 'Project into the Barriers which Indigenous Students must Overcome in Postgraduate Studies'.