The exponential COM-Poisson distribution

The Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COMP) distribution as an extension of the Poisson distribution is a popular model for analyzing counting data. For the first time, we introduce a new three parameter distribution, so-called the exponential-Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ECOMP) distribution, that contains as sub-models the exponential-geometric and exponential-Poisson distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (Stat Probab Lett 39:35-42, 1998) and KuAY (Comput Stat Data Anal 51:4497-4509, 2007), respectively. The new density function can be expressed as a mixture of exponential density functions. Expansions for moments, moment generating function and some statistical measures are provided. The density function of the order statistics can also be expressed as a mixture of exponential densities. We derive two formulae for the moments of order statistics. The elements of the observed information matrix are provided. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution to analyze positive data.

Mixed Negative Binomial Distribution by Weighted Gamma Mixing Distribution

Павел Т. Стойнов - В тази работа се разглежда отрицателно биномното разпределение, известно още като разпределение на Пойа. Предполагаме, че смесващото разпределение е претеглено гама разпределение. Изведени са вероятностите в някои частни случаи. Дадени са рекурентните формули на Панжер.

Ecology and distribution of diatoms in Biscayne Bay, Florida (USA): Implications for bioassessment and paleoenvironmental studies

The spatial and temporal distribution of planktonic, sediment-associated and epiphytic diatoms among 58 sites in Biscayne Bay, Florida was examined in order to identify diatom taxa indicative of different salinity and water quality conditions, geographic locations and habitat types. Assessments were made in contrasting wet and dry seasons in order to develop robust assessment models for salinity and water quality for this region. We found that diatom assemblages differed between nearshore and offshore locations, especially during the wet season when salinity and nutrient gradients were steepest. In the dry season, habitat structure was primary determinant of diatom assemblage composition. Among a suite of physicochemical variables, water depth and sediment total phosphorus (STP) were most strongly associated with diatom assemblage composition in the dry season, while salinity and water total phosphorus (TP) were more important in the wet season. We used indicator species analysis (ISA) to identify taxa that were most abundant and frequent at nearshore and offshore locations, in planktonic, epiphytic and benthic habitats and in contrasting salinity and water quality regimes. Because surface water concentrations of salts, total phosphorus, nitrogen (TN) and organic carbon (TOC) are partly controlled by water management in this region, diatom-based models were produced to infer these variables in modern and retrospective assessments of management-driven changes. Weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regressions produced reliable estimates of salinity, TP, TN and TOC from diatoms (r2 = 0.92, 0.77, 0.77 and 0.71, respectively). Because of their sensitivity to salinity, nutrient and TOC concentrations diatom assemblages should be useful in developing protective nutrient criteria for estuaries and coastal waters of Florida.

Evaluation of geostatistical techniques to estimate the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass in the Amazon rainforest using high-resolution remote sensing data

ABSTRACT The spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Amazon is heterogeneous with a temporal and spatial variation, especially in relation to the different vegetation types of this biome. Biomass estimated in this region varies significantly depending on the applied approach and the data set used for modeling it. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate three different geostatistical techniques to estimate the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB). The selected techniques were: 1) ordinary least-squares regression (OLS), 2) geographically weighted regression (GWR) and, 3) geographically weighted regression - kriging (GWR-K). These techniques were applied to the same field dataset, using the same environmental variables derived from cartographic information and high-resolution remote sensing data (RapidEye). This study was developed in the Amazon rainforest from Sucumbíos - Ecuador. The results of this study showed that the GWR-K, a hybrid technique, provided statistically satisfactory estimates with the lowest prediction error compared to the other two techniques. Furthermore, we observed that 75% of the AGB was explained by the combination of remote sensing data and environmental variables, where the forest types are the most important variable for estimating AGB. It should be noted that while the use of high-resolution images significantly improves the estimation of the spatial distribution of AGB, the processing of this information requires high computational demand.

The connection between distortion risk measures and ordered weighted averaging operators

Distortion risk measures summarize the risk of a loss distribution by means of a single value. In fuzzy systems, the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) and Weighted Ordered Weighted Averaging (WOWA) operators are used to aggregate a large number of fuzzy rules into a single value. We show that these concepts can be derived from the Choquet integral, and then the mathematical relationship between distortion risk measures and the OWA and WOWA operators for discrete and finite random variables is presented. This connection offers a new interpretation of distortion risk measures and, in particular, Value-at-Risk and Tail Value-at-Risk can be understood from an aggregation operator perspective. The theoretical results are illustrated in an example and the degree of orness concept is discussed.

Infarction Distribution Pattern in Acute Stroke May Predict the Extent of Leptomeningeal Collaterals.

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the distribution pattern of early ischemic changes in the initial MRI allows a practical method for estimating leptomeningeal collateralization in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). METHODS Seventy-four patients with AIS underwent MRI followed by conventional angiogram and mechanical thrombectomy. Diffusion restriction in Diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and correlated T2-hyperintensity of the infarct were retrospectively analyzed and subdivided in accordance with Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score (ASPECTS). Patients were angiographically graded in collateralization groups according to the method of Higashida, and dichotomized in 2 groups: 29 subjects with collateralization grade 3 or 4 (well-collateralized group) and 45 subjects with grade 1 or 2 (poorly-collateralized group). Individual ASPECTS areas were compared among the groups. RESULTS Means for overall DWI-ASPECTS were 6.34 vs. 4.51 (well vs. poorly collateralized groups respectively), and for T2-ASPECTS 9.34 vs 8.96. A significant difference between groups was found for DWI-ASPECTS (p<0.001), but not for T2-ASPECTS (p = 0.088). Regarding the individual areas, only insula, M1-M4 and M6 showed significantly fewer infarctions in the well-collateralized group (p-values <0.001 to 0.015). 89% of patients in the well-collateralized group showed 0-2 infarctions in these six areas (44.8% with 0 infarctions), while 59.9% patients of the poor-collateralized group showed 3-6 infarctions. CONCLUSION Patients with poor leptomeningeal collateralization show more infarcts on the initial MRI, particularly in the ASPECTS areas M1 to M4, M6 and insula. Therefore DWI abnormalities in these areas may be a surrogate marker for poor leptomeningeal collaterals and may be useful for estimation of the collateral status in routine clinical evaluation.

Space density distribution of galaxies in the absolute magnitude - rotation velocity plane: a volume-complete Tully-Fisher relation from CALIFA stellar kinematics

We measured the distribution in absolute magnitude - circular velocity space for a well-defined sample of 199 rotating galaxies of the Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area Survey (CALIFA) using their stellar kinematics. Our aim in this analysis is to avoid subjective selection criteria and to take volume and large-scale structure factors into account. Using stellar velocity fields instead of gas emission line kinematics allows including rapidly rotating early-type galaxies. Our initial sample contains 277 galaxies with available stellar velocity fields and growth curve r-band photometry. After rejecting 51 velocity fields that could not be modelled because of the low number of bins, foreground contamination, or significant interaction, we performed Markov chain Monte Carlo modelling of the velocity fields, from which we obtained the rotation curve and kinematic parameters and their realistic uncertainties. We performed an extinction correction and calculated the circular velocity v_circ accounting for the pressure support of a given galaxy. The resulting galaxy distribution on the M-r - v(circ) plane was then modelled as a mixture of two distinct populations, allowing robust and reproducible rejection of outliers, a significant fraction of which are slow rotators. The selection effects are understood well enough that we were able to correct for the incompleteness of the sample. The 199 galaxies were weighted by volume and large-scale structure factors, which enabled us to fit a volume-corrected Tully-Fisher relation (TFR). More importantly, we also provide the volume-corrected distribution of galaxies in the M_r - v_circ plane, which can be compared with cosmological simulations. The joint distribution of the luminosity and circular velocity space densities, representative over the range of -20 > M_r > -22 mag, can place more stringent constraints on the galaxy formation and evolution scenarios than linear TFR fit parameters or the luminosity function alone.

Groundwater quality, vulnerability and potential assessment in Kobo Valley development project, Ethiopia

This study deals with investigating the groundwater quality for irrigation purpose, the vulnerability of the aquifer system to pollution and also the aquifer potential for sustainable water resources development in Kobo Valley development project. The groundwater quality is evaluated up on predicting the best possible distribution of hydrogeochemicals using geostatistical method and comparing them with the water quality guidelines given for the purpose of irrigation. The hydro geochemical parameters considered are SAR, EC, TDS, Cl-, Na+, Ca++, SO4 2- and HCO3 -. The spatial variability map reveals that these parameters falls under safe, moderate and severe or increasing problems. In order to present it clearly, the aggregated Water Quality Index (WQI) map is constructed using Weighted Arithmetic Mean method. It is found that Kobo-Gerbi sub basin is suffered from bad water quality for the irrigation purpose. Waja Golesha sub-basin has moderate and Hormat Golena is the better sub basin in terms of water quality. The groundwater vulnerability assessment of the study area is made using the GOD rating system. It is found that the whole area is experiencing moderate to high risk of vulnerability and it is a good warning for proper management of the resource. The high risks of vulnerability are noticed in Hormat Golena and Waja Golesha sub basins. The aquifer potential of the study area is obtained using weighted overlay analysis and 73.3% of the total area is a good site for future water well development. The rest 26.7% of the area is not considered as a good site for spotting groundwater wells. Most of this area fall under Kobo-Gerbi sub basin.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Quantification and molecular characterization of dissolved organic sulfur in water samples obtained during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXV (PS73) to the East Atlantic and the Southern Ocean

Although sulfur is an essential element for marine primary production and critical for climate processes, little is known about the oceanic pool of non-volatile dissolved organic sulfur (DOS). We present a basin-scale distribution of solid phase extractable DOS in the East Atlantic Ocean and the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. While molar DOS versus dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) ratios of 0.11 ± 0.024 in Atlantic surface water resembled phytoplankton stoichiometry (S/N ~ 0.08), increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) versus DOS ratios and decreasing methionine-S yield demonstrated selective DOS removal and active involvement in marine biogeochemical cycles. Based on stoichiometric estimates, the minimum global inventory of marine DOS is 6.7 Pg S, exceeding all other marine organic sulfur reservoirs by an order of magnitude.

Acute Toxic Leukoencephalopathy: Potential for Reversibility Clinically and on MRI With Diffusion-Weighted and FLAIR Imaging

OBJECTIVE. Toxic leukoencephalopathy may present acutely or subacutely with symmetrically reduced diffusion in the periventricular and supraventricular white matter, hereafter referred to as periventricular white matter. This entity may reverse both on imaging and clinically. However, a gathering together of the heterogeneous causes of this disorder as seen on MRI with diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and an analysis of their likelihood to reverse has not yet been performed. Our goals were to gather causes of acute or subacute toxic leukoencephalopathy that can present with reduced diffusion of periventricular white matter in order to promote recognition of this entity, to evaluate whether DWI with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values can predict the extent of chronic FLAIR abnormality ( imaging reversibility), and to evaluate whether DWI can predict the clinical outcome ( clinical reversibility). MATERIALS AND METHODS. Two neuroradiologists retrospectively reviewed the MRI examinations of 39 patients with acute symptoms and reduced diffusion of periventricular white matter. The reviewers then scored the extent of abnormality on DWI and FLAIR. ADC ratios of affected white matter versus the unaffected periventricular white matter were obtained. Each patient`s clinical records were reviewed to determine the cause and clinical outcome. Histology findings were available in three patients. Correlations were calculated between the initial MRI markers and both the clinical course and the follow-up extent on FLAIR using Spearman`s correlation coefficient. RESULTS. Of the initial 39 patients, seven were excluded because of a nontoxic cause (hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy [HIE] or congenital genetic disorders) or because of technical errors. In the remaining 32 patients, no correlation was noted between any of the initial MRI markers (percentage of ADC reduction, DWI extent, or FLAIR extent) with the clinical outcome. Three patients had histologic correlation. However, moderate correlation was seen between the extent of abnormality on initial FLAIR and the extent on follow-up FLAIR (r = 0.441, p = 0.047). Of the 13 patients who underwent repeat MRI at 21 days or longer, the reduced diffusion resolved in all but one. Significant differences were noted between ADC values in affected white matter versus unaffected periventricular white matter on initial (p < 0.0001) but not on follow-up MRI (p = 0.13), and in affected white matter on initial versus follow-up (p = 0.0014) in those individuals who underwent repeat imaging on the same magnet (n = 9), confirming resolution of the DWI abnormalities. CONCLUSION. Acute toxic leukoencephalopathy with reduced diffusion may be clinically reversible and radiologically reversible on DWI, and may also be reversible, but to a lesser degree, on FLAIR MRI. None of the imaging markers measured in this study appears to correlate with clinical outcome, which underscores the necessity for prompt recognition of this entity. Alerting the clinician to this potentially reversible syndrome can facilitate treatment and removal of the offending agent in the early stages.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Optimization of fMRI Processing Parameters for Simutaneous Acquisition of EEG/fMRI in Focal Epilepsy

In the context of focal epilepsy, the simultaneous combination of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) holds a great promise as a technique by which the hemodynamic correlates of interictal spikes detected on scalp EEG can be identified. The fact that traditional EEG recordings have not been able to overcome the difficulty in correlating the ictal clinical symptoms to the onset in particular areas of the lobes, brings the need of mapping with more precision the epileptogenic cortical regions. On the other hand, fMRI suggested localizations more consistent with the ictal clinical manifestations detected. This study was developed in order to improve the knowledge about the way parameters involved in the physical and mathematical data, produced by the EEG/fMRI technique processing, would influence the final results. The evaluation of the accuracy was made by comparing the BOLD results with: the high resolution EEG maps; the malformative lesions detected in the T1 weighted MR images; and the anatomical localizations of the diagnosed symptomatology of each studied patient. The optimization of the set of parameters used, will provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of epileptogenic focuses, in patients included on an epilepsy surgery evaluation program. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that: by associating the BOLD effect with interictal spikes, the epileptogenic areas are mapped to localizations different from those obtained by the EEG maps representing the electrical potential distribution across the scalp (EEG); there is an important and solid bond between the variation of particular parameters (manipulated during the fMRI data processing) and the optimization of the final results, from which smoothing, deleted volumes, HRF (used to convolve with the activation design), and the shape of the Gamma function can be certainly emphasized.

Aggregation of subtropical soil under liming: a study using laser diffraction

Laser diffraction (LD) provides detailed analysis of particle size distribution. Its application to testing the stability of soil aggregates can assist studies on the aggregation of soils with contrasting electrochemical properties. The objectives of the present work were: (a) to propose a protocol for using LD to study soil aggregation, (b) to study the aggregation of an Acrisol under the influence of different doses and forms of lime. Samples were collected in 2005 from a Brazilian Acrisol that in 1994 had received 0.0; 2.0; 8.5 and 17.0 Mg ha-1 of lime, left on the soil surface or incorporated. Aggregates from 4.76 to 8.00 mm diameters were studied using the traditional method proposed by Kemper & Chepil (1965), with wet sieving, while aggregates from 1.00 to 2.00 mm were studied using a CILAS® laser diffractometer that distinguishes particles ranging from 0.04 to 2,500.00 μm. LD readings were made after six consecutive pre-treatments, using agitation times, a chemical dispersion agent and ultrasound. Mean Weighted Diameter (MWD) and the Aggregate Stability Index (ASI) calculated, using the traditional method does not discriminate the treatments. However, LD is able to produce detailed data on soil aggregation, resulting in indexes of stability of aggregates that are linearly related to the doses of lime applied (MWD: R² = 0.986 and ASI: R² = 0.876). It may be concluded that electrochemical changes in the Brazilian Acrisol resulting from incorporated lime affect the stability of aggregates, increasing stability with increased doses of lime.

Testing the influence of small crystals on ice size spectra using Doppler lidar observations

Analysis of the vertical velocity of ice crystals observed with a 1.5micron Doppler lidar from a continuous sample of stratiform ice clouds over 17 months show that the distribution of Doppler velocity varies strongly with temperature, with mean velocities of 0.2m/s at -40C, increasing to 0.6m/s at -10C due to particle growth and broadening of the size spectrum. We examine the likely influence of crystals smaller than 60microns by forward modelling their effect on the area-weighted fall speed, and comparing the results to the lidar observations. The comparison strongly suggests that the concentration of small crystals in most clouds is much lower than measured in-situ by some cloud droplet probes. We argue that the discrepancy is likely due to shattering of large crystals on the probe inlet, and that numerous small particles should not be included in numerical weather and climate model parameterizations.