Antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: Virologic failure of HIV-positive patients is of special concern during pregnancy. We compared virologic failure and the frequency of treatment changes in pregnant and non-pregnant women of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Using data on 372 pregnancies in 324 women we describe antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy. Pregnant women on HAART at conception (n = 131) were matched to 228 non-pregnant women (interindividual comparison) and to a time period of equal length before and after pregnancy (intraindividual comparison). Women starting HAART during pregnancy (n = 145) were compared with 578 non-pregnant women starting HAART. FINDINGS: The median age at conception was 31 years, 16% (n = 50) were infected through injecting drug use and the median CD4 cell count was 489 cells/microl. In the majority of pregnancies (n = 220, 59%), women had started ART before conception. When ART was started during pregnancy (n = 145, 39%), it was mainly during the second trimester (n = 100, 69%). Two thirds (n = 26) of 35 women starting in the third trimester were diagnosed with HIV during pregnancy. The risk of virologic failure tended to be lower in pregnant than in non-pregnant women [adjusted odds ratio 0.52 (95% confidence interval 0.25-1.09, P = 0.08)], but was similar in the intraindividual comparison (adjusted odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.48-2.28). Women starting HAART during pregnancy changed the treatment less often than non-pregnant women. CONCLUSION: Despite the physiological changes occurring during pregnancy, HIV infected pregnant women are not at higher risk of virologic failure.

Added Value of Deep Sequencing Relative to Population Sequencing in Heavily Pre-Treated HIV-1-Infected Subjects.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the potential of deep HIV-1 sequencing for adding clinically relevant information relative to viral population sequencing in heavily pre-treated HIV-1-infected subjects. METHODS: In a proof-of-concept study, deep sequencing was compared to population sequencing in HIV-1-infected individuals with previous triple-class virological failure who also developed virologic failure to deep salvage therapy including, at least, darunavir, tipranavir, etravirine or raltegravir. Viral susceptibility was inferred before salvage therapy initiation and at virological failure using deep and population sequencing genotypes interpreted with the HIVdb, Rega and ANRS algorithms. The threshold level for mutant detection with deep sequencing was 1%. RESULTS: 7 subjects with previous exposure to a median of 15 antiretrovirals during a median of 13 years were included. Deep salvage therapy included darunavir, tipranavir, etravirine or raltegravir in 4, 2, 2 and 5 subjects, respectively. Self-reported treatment adherence was adequate in 4 and partial in 2; one individual underwent treatment interruption during follow-up. Deep sequencing detected all mutations found by population sequencing and identified additional resistance mutations in all but one individual, predominantly after virological failure to deep salvage therapy. Additional genotypic information led to consistent decreases in predicted susceptibility to etravirine, efavirenz, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and indinavir in 2, 1, 2 and 1 subject, respectively. Deep sequencing data did not consistently modify the susceptibility predictions achieved with population sequencing for darunavir, tipranavir or raltegravir. CONCLUSIONS: In this subset of heavily pre-treated individuals, deep sequencing improved the assessment of genotypic resistance to etravirine, but did not consistently provide additional information on darunavir, tipranavir or raltegravir susceptibility. These data may inform the design of future studies addressing the clinical value of minority drug-resistant variants in treatment-experienced subjects.

Long-term efficacy and safety of atazanavir/ritonavir treatment in a cohort of treatment-naïve HIV patients: An interim analysis of the REMAIN study.

Purpose: Combined antiretroviral therapy has dramatically improved HIV-infected individuals survival. Long-term strategies are currently needed to achieve the goal of durable virologic suppression. However, long-term available data for specific antiretrovirals (ARV) are limited. In clinical trials, boosted atazanavir (ATV/r) regimens has shown good efficacy and tolerability in ARV-naïve patients for up to 4 years. The REMAIN study aimed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of ATV/r regimens in ARV-naïve patients in a real life setting. Methods: Non-comparative, observational study conducted in Germany, Portugal and Spain. Historical and longitudinal follow-up data was extracted six monthly from the medical record of HIV-infected, treatment-naïve patients, who initiated an ATV/r-regimen between 2008 and 2010. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients remaining on ATV treatment over time. Secondary endpoints included virologic response (HIV-1 RNA <50 c/mL and <500 c/mL), reasons for discontinuation and long-term safety. The duration of treatment and time to virologic failure (VF) were analyzed using the Kaplan- Meier method. Data from an interim analysis including patients with at least one year of follow-up are reported here. Results: A total of 411 patients were included in this interim analysis [median (Q1, Q3) follow-up: 23.42 (16.25, 32.24) months≥: 77% male; median age 40 years [min, max: 19, 78≥; 16% IDUs; 18% CDC C; 18% hepatitis C. TDF/FTC was the most common backbone (85%). At baseline, median (Q1, Q3) HIV-RNA and CD4 cell count were 4.91 (4.34, 5.34) log10 c/mL and 256 (139, 353) cells/mm3, respectively. The probability of remaining on treatment was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.87) and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.76) for the first and second year, respectively. After 2 years of follow-up, 84% (95% CI: 0.79, 0.88) of patients were virologically suppressed (<50 c/mL). No major protease inhibitors mutations were observed at VF. Overall, 125 patients (30%) discontinued ATV therapy [median (Q1, Q3) time to discontinuation: 11.14 (6.24, 19.35) months]. Adverse events (AEs) were the main reason for discontinuation (n =47, 11%). Hyperbilirubinaemia was the most common AE leading to discontinuation (14 patients). No unexpected AEs were reported. Conclusions: In a real life clinical setting, ATV/r regimens showed durable virologic efficacy with good tolerability in an ARV-naïve population. Data from longer follow-up will provide additional valuable information.

Clinical and Virological Efficacy of Etravirine Plus Two Active Nucleos(t)ide Analogs in an Heterogeneous HIV-Infected Population.

Etravirine (ETV) is recommended in combination with a boosted protease inhibitor plus an optimized background regimen for salvage therapy, but there is limited experience with its use in combination with two nucleos(t)ide reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). This multicenter study aimed to assess the efficacy of this combination in two scenarios: group A) subjects without virologic failure on or no experience with non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) switched due to adverse events and group B) subjects switched after a virologic failure on an efavirenz- or nevirapine-based regimen. The primary endpoint was efficacy at 52 weeks analysed by intention-to-treat. Virologic failure was defined as the inability to suppress plasma HIV-RNA to <50 copies/mL after 24 weeks on treatment, or a confirmed viral load >200 copies/mL in patients who had previously achieved a viral suppression or had an undetectable viral load at inclusion. Two hundred eighty seven patients were included. Treatment efficacy rates in group A and B were 88.0% (CI95, 83.9-92.1%) and 77.4% (CI95, 65.0-89.7%), respectively; the rates reached 97.2% (CI95, 95.1-99.3%) and 90.5% (CI95, 81.7-99.3), by on-treatment analysis. The once-a-day ETV treatment was as effective as the twice daily dosing regimen. Grade 1-2 adverse events were observed motivating a treatment switch in 4.2% of the subjects. In conclusion, ETV (once- or twice daily) plus two analogs is a suitable, well-tolerated combination both as a switching strategy and after failure with first generation NNRTIs, ensuring full drug activity. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01437241.

Discontinuation of enfuvirtide in heavily pretreated HIV-infected individuals.

BACKGROUND: Enfuvirtide was shown to be highly effective in treatment- experienced patients. Data on discontinuation of enfuvirtide and switch to new antiretroviral drugs are scarce. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and the impact of discontinuing and/or switching enfuvirtide on virologic and clinical parameters in clinical practice. METHODS: All HIV-infected individuals participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who were treated with enfuvirtide for at least 4 weeks in combination with an optimized background antiretroviral regimen were included in this study. RESULTS: A total of 151 patients were analyzed. The median baseline CD4 cell count was 108 cells/microL (interquartile range [IQR] 50-206) and HIV RNA was 4.7 log10 copies/mL (IQR 4.1-5.2). Virologic suppression, defined as a viral load below 50 copies/mL at 12 months, was achieved by 57.6% of patients. Overall, a median CD4 cell increase of 121 cells/microL (IQR 50-189) from baseline was noted. Up to 50% of patients discontinued enfuvirtide within the first year of treatment, mainly because of the patient's choice. After discontinuation of enfuvirtide, high rates of virologic failure and clinical progression were observed, notably when CD4 cell count at stopping enfuvirtide was below 100 cells/microL and no switch to new potent antiretroviral drugs such as darunavir, maraviroc, or raltegravir was performed. CONCLUSIONS: Enfuvirtide provides high virologic and immunologic response in treatment-experienced patients in the setting of clinical practice. Enfuvirtide should not be discontinued but should be replaced by new potent antiretrovirals, particularly in case of severe immunosuppression.

Long-term effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral theraphy in a cohort of HIV-1 infected patients.

Eligibility criteria might explain differences in viral response to combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) between clinical trials and routine care setting. Prospective analysis including HIV-1 infected patients starting cART between January 2004 and December 2009, at Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron. Effectiveness evaluated as time to treatment failure (TF), defined as virologic failure, loss to follow-up, death or treatment discontinuation whatever the reason other than switching. Effectiveness month 12, 24 and 36 was 82.9%, 78.5% and 76%, respectively. 57 (24.6%) patients presented TF, mainly due to intolerance or toxicity. Higher risk in patients starting before 2006 and those with protease inhibitor based regimen.

Limited clinical benefit of minority K103N and Y181C-variant detection in addition to routine genotypic resistance testing in antiretroviral therapy-naive patients.

OBJECTIVE: The presence of minority nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-resistant HIV-1 variants prior to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been linked to virologic failure in treatment-naive patients. DESIGN: We performed a large retrospective study to determine the number of treatment failures that could have been prevented by implementing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variant analyses in ART-naïve patients in whom no NNRTI resistance mutations were detected by routine resistance testing. METHODS: Of 1608 patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, who have initiated first-line ART with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and one NNRTI before July 2008, 519 patients were eligible by means of HIV-1 subtype, viral load and sample availability. Key NNRTI drug resistance mutations K103N and Y181C were measured by allele-specific PCR in 208 of 519 randomly chosen patients. RESULTS: Minority K103N and Y181C drug resistance mutations were detected in five out of 190 (2.6%) and 10 out of 201 (5%) patients, respectively. Focusing on 183 patients for whom virologic success or failure could be examined, virologic failure occurred in seven out of 183 (3.8%) patients; minority K103N and/or Y181C variants were present prior to ART initiation in only two of those patients. The NNRTI-containing, first-line ART was effective in 10 patients with preexisting minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variant. CONCLUSION: As revealed in settings of case-control studies, minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variants can have an impact on ART. However, the implementation of minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variant analysis in addition to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) cannot be recommended in routine clinical settings. Additional associated risk factors need to be discovered.

Adherence as a predictor of the development of class-specific resistance mutations: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Non-adherence is one of the strongest predictors of therapeutic failure in HIV-positive patients. Virologic failure with subsequent emergence of resistance reduces future treatment options and long-term clinical success. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study including patients starting new class of antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2003 and 2010. Participants were naïve to ART class and completed ≥1 adherence questionnaire prior to resistance testing. Outcomes were development of any IAS-USA, class-specific, or M184V mutations. Associations between adherence and resistance were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by ART class. RESULTS: Of 314 included individuals, 162 started NNRTI and 152 a PI/r regimen. Adherence was similar between groups with 85% reporting adherence ≥95%. Number of new mutations increased with increasing non-adherence. In NNRTI group, multivariable models indicated a significant linear association in odds of developing IAS-USA (odds ratio (OR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-2.67) or class-specific (OR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.00-2.70) mutations. Levels of drug resistance were considerably lower in PI/r group and adherence was only significantly associated with M184V mutations (OR 8.38, 95% CI: 1.26-55.70). Adherence was significantly associated with HIV RNA in PI/r but not NNRTI regimens. CONCLUSION: Therapies containing PI/r appear more forgiving to incomplete adherence compared with NNRTI regimens, which allow higher levels of resistance, even with adherence above 95%. However, in failing PI/r regimens good adherence may prevent accumulation of further resistance mutations and therefore help to preserve future drug options. In contrast, adherence levels have little impact on NNRTI treatments once the first mutations have emerged.

Once-daily dolutegravir is superior to once-daily darunavir/ritonavir in treatment-naïve HIV-1-positive individuals: 96 week results from FLAMINGO.

INTRODUCTION: Dolutegravir (DTG) 50 mg once daily was superior to darunavir/ritonavir (DRV/r) 800 mg/100 mg once daily through Week 48, with 90% vs. 83% of participants achieving HIV RNA 50 c/mL (p=0.025) [1]. We present data through Week 96. MATERIAL AND METHODS: FLAMINGO is a multicentre, randomized, open-label, Phase IIIb non-inferiority study, in which HIV-1-positive ART-naïve adults with HIV-1 RNA≥1000 c/mL and no evidence of viral resistance were randomized 1:1 to receive DTG or DRV/r, with investigator-selected backbone NRTIs (TDF/FTC or ABC/3TC). Participants were stratified by screening HIV-1 RNA (≤100K c/mL) and NRTI backbone. RESULTS: A total of 484 adults were randomized and treated; 25% had baseline HIV RNA 100K c/mL. At Week 96, the proportion of participants with HIV RNA 50 c/mL was 80% in the DTG arm vs. 68% in the DRV/r arm (adjusted difference 12.4%; 95% CI 4.7, 20.2%; p=0.002). Secondary analyses supported primary results: per-protocol [(DTG 83% vs. DRV/r 70%), 95% CI 12.9 (5.3, 20.6)] and treatment-related discontinuation = failure [(98% vs. 95%), 95% CI 3.2 (-0.3, 6.7)]. Overall virologic non-response (DTG 8%; DRV/r 12%) and non-response due to other reasons (DTG 12%; DRV/r 21%) occurred less frequently on DTG. As at Week 48, the difference between arms was most pronounced in participants with high baseline viral load (82% vs. 52% response through Week 96) and in the TDF/FTC stratum (79% vs. 64%); consistent responses were seen in the ABC/3TC stratum (82% vs. 75%). Six participants (DTG 2, none post-Week 48; DRV/r 4, two post-Week 48) experienced protocol-defined virologic failure (PDVF; confirmed viral load 200 c/mL on or after Week 24); none had treatment-emergent resistance to study drugs. Most frequent drug-related adverse events (AEs) were diarrhoea, nausea and headache, with diarrhoea significantly more common on DRV/r (24%) than DTG (10%). Significantly more participants had Grade 2 fasting LDL toxicities on DRV/r (22%) vs. DTG (7%), p<0.001; mean changes in creatinine for DTG (~0.18 mg/dL) observed at Week 2 were stable through Week 96. CONCLUSIONS: Once-daily DTG was superior to once-daily DRV/r in treatment-naïve HIV-1-positive individuals, with no evidence of emergent resistance to DTG in virologic failure and relatively similar safety profiles for DTG and DRV/r through 96 Weeks.

Effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy using non-brand name drugs in Brazil

In Brazil, HIV-infected individuals receive drugs (including non-brand name drugs which comprise locally produced generics and drugs that have not been tested in bioequivalence trials) free of charge from the government. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where non-brand drugs are widely used. For this purpose, we estimated the proportion of subjects with virologic failure (plasma HIV viral load greater than 400 copies/mL at 6 months after initiation of treatment). This was a retrospective cohort study of drug-naive HIV-infected subjects who initiated HAART. Subjects were included in the analysis if they were 18 years of age or older, were treatment naive, started HAART with a minimum of 3 drugs, and had available information on blood plasma HIV-1 viral load after 6 months on therapy. All subjects used antiretrovirals in dosing regimens recommended by the Brazilian National Advisory Committee for Antiretroviral Therapy. Chart reviews were conducted in three settings: at two public health outpatient units, at one clinical trial unit and at one private office. No comparisons of the effectiveness of non-brand name with the effectiveness of brand name drugs were made. We present results for 485 patients; of these, 354 (73%), 55 (11%), and 76 (16%) were seen at the public health outpatient units, private office, and clinical trial unit, respectively. Virologic failure was observed in 119 (25%) of the subjects. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of HAART in a setting where non-brand name drugs are widely used.

Cohorte de patients avec le VIH/SIDA : échecs virologiques et effets de thérapies antirétrovirales sur la fonction rénale et l'hyperbilirubinémie

Le virus de l'immunodéficience humaine (VIH) est à l’origine d’une infection chronique, elle-même responsable du développement du syndrome d'immunodéficience acquise (SIDA), un état de grande vulnérabilité où le corps humain est à la merci d’infections opportunistes pouvant s’avérer fatales. Aujourd’hui, 30 ans après la découverte du virus, même si aucun vaccin n’a réussi à contrôler la pandémie, la situation s’est grandement améliorée. Conséquemment à l’arrivée de traitements antirétroviraux hautement actifs (HAART) à la fin des années 1990, la mortalité associée au VIH/SIDA a diminué et un plus grand nombre de personnes vivent maintenant avec l'infection. La présente thèse avait pour objectif d’aborder trois situations problématiques, en dépit de l’efficacité reconnue des HAART, plus particulièrement la faible charge virale persistante (LLV) et sa relation avec l’échec virologique, ainsi que les effets de certains antirétroviraux (ARV) sur les fonctions rénale et hépatique. Les objectifs précis étaient donc les suivants : 1) étudier le risque d’échec virologique à long terme chez les patients sous HAART dont la charge virale est indétectable comparativement aux patients affichant une LLV persistante; 2) évaluer sur le long terme la perte de fonction rénale associée à la prise de ténofovir (TDF) 3) étudier sur le long terme l'hyperbilirubinémie associée à la prise d’atazanavir (ATV) et ses autres déterminants possibles. Afin d’atteindre les trois objectifs susmentionnés, une cohorte de 2 416 patients atteints du VIH/SIDA, suivis depuis juillet 1977 et résidant à Montréal, a été utilisée. Pour le premier objectif, les résultats obtenus ont montré un risque accru d’échec virologique établi à >1000 copies/ml d’ARN VIH chez tous les patients qui présentaient une LLV persistante de différentes catégories durant aussi peu que 6 mois. En effet, on a observé qu’une LLV de 50-199 copies/ml persistant pendant six mois doublait le risque d’échec virologique (Hazard ratio (HR)=2,22, Intervalle de confiance (CI) 95 %:1,60–3,09). Ces résultats pourraient modifier la façon dont on aborde actuellement la gestion des patients affichant une LLV, et plus particulièrement une LLV de 50-199 copies/ml, pour laquelle aucune recommandation clinique n’a encore été formulée en raison du manque de données. Pour le deuxième objectif, on a observé une augmentation du risque de perte de fonction rénale de l’ordre de 63 % (HR=1,63; 95% CI:1,26–2,10) chez les patients sous TDF comparativement aux patients traités avec d’autres ARV. La perte de fonction rénale directement attribuable à la prise de TDF, indique que cette perte est survenue au cours des premières années de l’exposition du patient au médicament. D’une perspective à long terme, cette perte est considérée comme modérée. Enfin, pour ce qui est du troisième objectif, on a constaté que l’incidence cumulative d’hyperbilirubinémie était très élevée chez les patients sous ATV, mais que cette dernière pouvait régresser lorsque l’on mettait fin au traitement. L’hyperbilirubinémie à long terme observée avec la prise d’ATV n’a été associée à aucun effet néfaste pour la santé. Dans l’ensemble, la présente thèse a permis de mieux comprendre les trois situations problématiques susmentionnées, qui font actuellement l’objet de débats au sein de la communauté scientifique, et d’éclairer sous un jour nouveau la gestion des patients séropositifs sous traitement médicamenteux.

Antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy

OBJECTIVE: Virologic failure of HIV-positive patients is of special concern during pregnancy. We compared virologic failure and the frequency of treatment changes in pregnant and non-pregnant women of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Using data on 372 pregnancies in 324 women we describe antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy. Pregnant women on HAART at conception (n = 131) were matched to 228 non-pregnant women (interindividual comparison) and to a time period of equal length before and after pregnancy (intraindividual comparison). Women starting HAART during pregnancy (n = 145) were compared with 578 non-pregnant women starting HAART. FINDINGS: The median age at conception was 31 years, 16% (n = 50) were infected through injecting drug use and the median CD4 cell count was 489 cells/microl. In the majority of pregnancies (n = 220, 59%), women had started ART before conception. When ART was started during pregnancy (n = 145, 39%), it was mainly during the second trimester (n = 100, 69%). Two thirds (n = 26) of 35 women starting in the third trimester were diagnosed with HIV during pregnancy. The risk of virologic failure tended to be lower in pregnant than in non-pregnant women [adjusted odds ratio 0.52 (95% confidence interval 0.25-1.09, P = 0.08)], but was similar in the intraindividual comparison (adjusted odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.48-2.28). Women starting HAART during pregnancy changed the treatment less often than non-pregnant women. CONCLUSION: Despite the physiological changes occurring during pregnancy, HIV infected pregnant women are not at higher risk of virologic failure.

Discontinuation of enfuvirtide in heavily pretreated HIV-infected individuals

BACKGROUND: Enfuvirtide was shown to be highly effective in treatment- experienced patients. Data on discontinuation of enfuvirtide and switch to new antiretroviral drugs are scarce. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and the impact of discontinuing and/or switching enfuvirtide on virologic and clinical parameters in clinical practice. METHODS: All HIV-infected individuals participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who were treated with enfuvirtide for at least 4 weeks in combination with an optimized background antiretroviral regimen were included in this study. RESULTS: A total of 151 patients were analyzed. The median baseline CD4 cell count was 108 cells/microL (interquartile range [IQR] 50-206) and HIV RNA was 4.7 log10 copies/mL (IQR 4.1-5.2). Virologic suppression, defined as a viral load below 50 copies/mL at 12 months, was achieved by 57.6% of patients. Overall, a median CD4 cell increase of 121 cells/microL (IQR 50-189) from baseline was noted. Up to 50% of patients discontinued enfuvirtide within the first year of treatment, mainly because of the patient's choice. After discontinuation of enfuvirtide, high rates of virologic failure and clinical progression were observed, notably when CD4 cell count at stopping enfuvirtide was below 100 cells/microL and no switch to new potent antiretroviral drugs such as darunavir, maraviroc, or raltegravir was performed. CONCLUSIONS: Enfuvirtide provides high virologic and immunologic response in treatment-experienced patients in the setting of clinical practice. Enfuvirtide should not be discontinued but should be replaced by new potent antiretrovirals, particularly in case of severe immunosuppression.

Long-term trends of HIV type 1 drug resistance prevalence among antiretroviral treatment-experienced patients in Switzerland

BACKGROUND:Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. METHODS:On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). RESULTS:Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had >or= 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. CONCLUSIONS:Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference. DESIGN Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes. METHODS We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained. RESULTS RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality. CONCLUSIONS VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.