Essays on Russia's Economic Transition

This study comprises an introductory section and three essays analysing Russia's economic transition from the early 1990s up to the present. The papers present a combination of both theoretical and empirical analysis on some of the key issues Russia has faced during its somewhat troublesome transformation from state-controlled command economy to market-based economy. The first essay analyses fiscal competition for mobile capital between identical regions in a transition country. A standard tax competition framework is extended to account for two features of a transition economy: the presence of two sectors, old and new, which differ in productivity; and a non-benevolent regional decision-maker. It is shown that in very early phase of transition, when the old sector clearly dominates, consumers in a transition economy may be better off in a competitive equilibrium. Decision-makers, on the other hand, will prefer to coordinate their fiscal policies. The second essay uses annual data for 1992-2003 to examine income dispersion and convergence across 76 Russian regions. Wide disparities in income levels have indeed emerged during the transition period. Dispersion has increased most among the initially better-off regions, whereas for the initially poorer regions no clear trend of divergence or convergence could be established. Further, some - albeit not highly robust - evidence was found of both unconditional and conditional convergence, especially among the initially richer regions. Finally, it is observed that there is much less evidence of convergence after the economic crisis of 1998. The third essay analyses industrial firms' engagement in provision of infrastructure services, such as heating, electricity and road maintenance. Using a unique dataset of 404 large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in 40 regions of Russia, the essay examines public infrastructure provision by Russian industrial enterprises. It is found that to a large degree engagement in infrastructure provision, as proxied by district heating production, is a Soviet legacy. Secondly, firms providing district heating to users outside their plant area are more likely to have close and multidimensional relations with the local public sector.

Is there a Kuznets' process in Southeast Asia?

Relatively little is known about the determinants of inequality in Southeast Asia. This paper fills this void by comprehensively testing Kuznets’ hypothesis for Southeast Asia. We estimate both unconditional and conditional Kuznets’ curves using panel data for 8 countries. The analysis suggests the existence of a Kuznets’ curve with respect to per capita income; the path of inequality is nonlinear with respect to economic development. There is no evidence of a Kuznets curve with respect to non-agricultural employment. There is some evidence in terms of urbanization, though this is not robust. There is robust evidence on the role of national governments and education in shaping the path of inequality in the region. Government involvement reduces inequality. Education appears to have a non-linear effect on inequality.

Evaluating tests for convergence of economic series using Monte Carlo methods with an application to real GDP's per head.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Identify disorders in health records using Conditional Random Fields and Metamap: AEHRC at ShARe/CLEF 2013 eHealth Evaluation Lab Task 1

The Australian e-Health Research Centre (AEHRC) recently participated in the ShARe/CLEF eHealth Evaluation Lab Task 1. The goal of this task is to individuate mentions of disorders in free-text electronic health records and map disorders to SNOMED CT concepts in the UMLS metathesaurus. This paper details our participation to this ShARe/CLEF task. Our approaches are based on using the clinical natural language processing tool Metamap and Conditional Random Fields (CRF) to individuate mentions of disorders and then to map those to SNOMED CT concepts. Empirical results obtained on the 2013 ShARe/CLEF task highlight that our instance of Metamap (after ltering irrelevant semantic types), although achieving a high level of precision, is only able to identify a small amount of disorders (about 21% to 28%) from free-text health records. On the other hand, the addition of the CRF models allows for a much higher recall (57% to 79%) of disorders from free-text, without sensible detriment in precision. When evaluating the accuracy of the mapping of disorders to SNOMED CT concepts in the UMLS, we observe that the mapping obtained by our ltered instance of Metamap delivers state-of-the-art e ectiveness if only spans individuated by our system are considered (`relaxed' accuracy).

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Conditional cash transfer programs and the representations of poverty in Bolivia and Peru

Bolivia and Peru adopted the same instruments of social policy —conditional cash transfer programs— to solve the same public problems under different political regimes. By means of the qualitative methodology of discourse analysis, this paper studies the representations of poverty and State made by key actors of those social programs. Underlying more differences than similarities, one demonstrates that the same social policy is linked to opposite social representations of poverty and the State role in every country. The main explanation for this is, far from being imposed by international organizations, those programs are adopted and adapted by each political regime.

Conditional and transgenic mouse models as tools to study the role of TGFbeta, BMP signaling in skeletal development

Die TGFbeta/BMP Signaltransduktionskaskade ist wichtig für viele Entwicklungsprozesse fast aller embryonaler sowie extraembryonaler Gewebe und sie ist ebenso essentiell bei der Aufrechterhaltung der Homöostase im adulten Organismus. In vielen Mausmodellen und Zellkulturversuchen wurde gezeigt, dass Liganden dieses Signalweges in verschiedene Stadien der Knorpel- und Knochenentwicklung involviert sind. BMPs sind beispielsweise maßgeblich an der frühen Kondensation und Bildung des Knorpels und später an Proliferation und Hypertrophie der Chondrozyten beteiligt. BMPs können ektopisch Knochenbildung auslösen und das Expressionsmuster der Liganden und spezifischen Rezeptoren in der Wachstumsfuge lässt auf eine wichtige Rolle der BMPs in der Wachstumsfuge schließen. Der gezielte knock out der BMP-Rezeptoren Bmpr1a und Bmpr1b in proliferierenden Chondrozyten führt zur Ausbildung einer generellen Chondrodysplasie. Smad1, Smad5 und Smad8 sind die Mediatoren der BMP-Signalkaskade. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit sollte die Rolle und Funktion der Smad1- und Smad5-Proteine in der Wachstumsfuge untersucht werden. Hierzu wurden konditionale Smad1-knock out-Mäuse mit einer transgenen Mauslinie gekreuzt, die die Cre-Rekombinase spezifisch in proliferierenden Chondrozyten exprimiert. Diese Mäuse wurden mit und ohne heterozygotem Smad5-Hintergrund charakterisiert. Bei einem knock out von Smad1 allein konnte ein leichte Verkürzung der Wachstumsfuge beobachtet werden, wobei prähypertrophe und hypertrophe Zone gleichermaßen betroffen waren. Dieser Phänotyp war verstärkt in Mäusen mit zusätzlichem heterozygotem Smad5-Hintergrund. Eine Verringerung der Proliferationsrate konnte zusammen mit einer verminderten Ihh-Expression nachgewiesen werden. Zusätzlich konnte anhand von Röntgenaufnahmen eine Dysorganisation der nasalen Region und ein fehlendes nasales Septum beobachtet werden. Produktion und Mineralisation der extrazellulären Matrix waren nicht beeinträchtigt. Um die Rolle der BMP- und TGFbeta-Signalkaskaden während der endochondralen Ossifikation zu vergleichen, wurden transgene Mäuse generiert, in denen die TGFbeta-Signalkaskade spezifisch in proliferierenden Chondrozyten gestört war. Zwei Mauslinien, die ähnliche Phänotypen zeigten, wurden untersucht. Esl1 ist ein TGFbeta-bindendes Protein, von dem man annimmt, dass es die TGFbeta-Signalkaskade inhibieren kann. Esl1-knock out-Mäuse sind kleiner als Wildtypmäuse und die Überexpression von Esl1 in proliferierenden Chondrozyten führt zu einer Verlängerung der Wachstumsfuge und einer verstärkten Proliferationsrate. Knorpelmarker, wie Col2a1 und Sox9 sind in diesen Mäusen herunterreguliert, während Col10a1 und Ihh als Marker für die hypertrophe und prähypertrophe Zone herunterreguliert waren. Dies führt zu der Annahme, dass mehr Zellen in die terminale Differenzierung eintreten. Bei transgenen Mäusen, in denen ein dominant-negativer (dn) TGFbeta-Rezeptor in proliferierenden Chondrozyten überexprimiert wurde, konnte eine verlängerte prähypertrophe Zone, eine erhöhte Ihh-Expression, sowie eine verstärkte Proliferationsrate beobachtet werden. Zusätzlich konnte in homozygoten Tieren ein craniofacialer Phänotyp beschrieben werden, der zu Problemen bei der Nahrungsaufnahme und damit zu einer starken Wachstumsbeeinträchtigung führte. Die BMP- und TGFbeta-Signalkaskaden haben möglicherweise antagonistische Effekte in der Wachstumsfuge. Während der Ausfall von BMP in proliferierenden Chondrozyten aufgrund einer gesunkenen Proliferationsrate zu einer Verkürzung der Wachstumsfuge führte, kann man in Mäusen mit einer Störung der TGFbeta-Signalkaskade eine verstärkte Proliferation in einer daher verlängerten Wachstumsfuge beobachten. Ein weiteres Ziel dieser Arbeit war die Generation einer transgenen Mauslinie, die die Cre-Rekombinase spezifisch in hypertrophen Chondrozyten exprimiert. Promoterstudien mit transgenen Mäusen weisen darauf hin, dass ein putatives AP1-Element, etwa 4 kb vor dem ersten Exon des Col10a1 gelegen, wichtig für die spezifische Expression in hypertrophen Chondrozyten ist. Ein Konstrukt, dass vier Kopien dieses Elements und den basalen Promoter enthält, wurde benutzt, um die Cre-Rekombinase spezifisch zu exprimieren. Diese Mauslinie befindet sich in der Testphase und erste Daten deuten auf eine spezifische Expression der Cre-Rekombinase in hypertrophen Chondrozyten hin.

Association between reported exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms in children: evidence of bias

BACKGROUND: Many studies showing effects of traffic-related air pollution on health rely on self-reported exposure, which may be inaccurate. We estimated the association between self-reported exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms in preschool children, and investigated whether the effect could have been caused by reporting bias. METHODS: In a random sample of 8700 preschool children in Leicestershire, UK, exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms were assessed by a postal questionnaire (response rate 80%). The association between traffic exposure and respiratory outcomes was assessed using unconditional logistic regression and conditional regression models (matching by postcode). RESULTS: Prevalence odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for self-reported road traffic exposure, comparing the categories 'moderate' and 'dense', respectively, with 'little or no' were for current wheezing: 1.26 (1.13-1.42) and 1.30 (1.09-1.55); chronic rhinitis: 1.18 (1.05-1.31) and 1.31 (1.11-1.56); night cough: 1.17 (1.04-1.32) and 1.36 (1.14-1.62); and bronchodilator use: 1.20 (1.04-1.38) and 1.18 (0.95-1.46). Matched analysis only comparing symptomatic and asymptomatic children living at the same postcode (thus exposed to similar road traffic) showed similar ORs, suggesting that parents of children with respiratory symptoms reported more road traffic than parents of asymptomatic children. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that reporting bias could explain some or even all the association between reported exposure to road traffic and disease. Over-reporting of exposure by only 10% of parents of symptomatic children would be sufficient to produce the effect sizes shown in this study. Future research should be based only on objective measurements of traffic exposure.

Northeastern United States, 1799 : showing township grants and land purchases in New York (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of the middle states of North America : shewing the position of the Geneseo country comprehending the counties of Ontario & Steuben as laid off in townships of six miles squar[e] each, Maverick, sculpt. It was printed by T. & J. Swords for Charles Williamson's Description of the settlement of the Genesee country, in the state of New-York, 1799. Scale [ca. 1:2,250,000]. Partial cadastral map showing large land purchases and township grants in New York State. Covers New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington, D.C. and portions of Maryland, Delaware, and West Virginia. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 18N NAD83 projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, major cities and towns, land purchases, township grants, state boundaries, and more. Includes key to "principal villages in Ontario & Steuben counties." This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Grants-in-aid and other financial assistance programs administered by the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.

Mode of access: Internet.

Extending the theory of Owicki and Gries with asynchronous message passing

We describe an extension of the theory of Owicki and Gries (1976) to a programming language that supports asynchronous message passing based on unconditional send actions and conditional receive actions. The focus is on exploring the fitness of the extension for distributed program derivation. A number of experiments are reported, based on a running example problem, and with the aim of exploring design heuristics and of streamlining derivations and progress arguments.

An exploration of the role of web and mobile social media in the implementation of e-Government in Malaysia

This paper reports on an exploratory study of the role of web and social media in e-governments, especially in the context of Malaysia, with some comparisons and contrasts from other countries where such governmental efforts have been underway for awhile. It describes the current e-government efforts in Malaysia, and proposes that applying a theoretical framework would help understand the context and streamline these ongoing efforts. Specifically, it lays out a theoretical and cultural framework based on Mary Douglas’ (1996) Grid-Group Theory, Mircea Georgescu’s (2005) Three Pillars of E-Government, and Gerald Grant’s and Derek Chau’s (2006) Generic Framework for E-Government. Although this study is in its early stages, it has relevance to everyone who is interested in e-government efforts across the world, and especially relevant to developing countries.

Big-five personality factors affecting pedestrian crossing behaviours

Human personality is an important component of psychological factors affecting pedestrian crossing. This paper reports a questionnaire survey on the effects of pedestrian personalities (including neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness and conscientiousness) on pedestrian violation in China. 675 feedbacks were obtained, of which 535 samples were valid for analysis. The results of the hierarchical regression analysis showed that educational level had significant effect on violation; agreeableness had significant effect on violation, conditional compliance and unconditional compliance; consciousness had significant effect on violation and conditional compliance; extraversion had significant effect on unconditional compliance; neuroticism had significant effect on violation; educational level had significant effect on violation. The results implied that psychological measures played a very important role in pedestrian safety.

Changing relationships : engaging students and staff in the design studio

QUT Learning and Teaching Unit Seminar Making a Real Difference: Learning and Teaching Grants Showcase This event recognised and shared teaching innovations, including those from faculty learning and teaching grants. The Showcase featured four ALTC Grant project leaders (Helen Partridge, Sylvia Edwards, Robyn Nash and Mary Ryan) who had recently completed or were about to complete their grants. Each QUT faculty nominated two 2010 faculty teaching and learning grant recipients to showcase grant outcomes via a poster. Poster: Shannon Satherley & Abbe Winter Changing Relationships: Engaging Students and Staff in the Design Studio 'In the design studio learning environment, traditional student and staff expectations are of close contact teaching and learning. However, in recent years increasing class sizes have meant students experiencing reduced personal staff attention, and increasingly feeling “anonymous” and correspondingly disengaged, to the detriment of quality learning (Carbone 1998: 8; Biggs 2003). Concurrently, there has been a necessary increase in teaching by sessional (casual) teaching staff at QUT, with varied levels of experience and assurance. While teachers primarily regard engagement as “cognitive and conative,” for students it is emotional: “... an essential need to feel that they were engaged with the context of their learning and that it was meaningful in some way” (Solomonides and Martin 2008: 18). As a response to these conditions, the Changing Relationships action-research project was run within a QUT School of Design studio unit in 2009 and 2010, based on the premise that engaged teaching can encourage emotionally engaged learning. The project inverted the structure of the traditional QUT studio unit, empowering both students and sessional staff with a sense of increased autonomy: literally changing the relationships within the studio learning environment.'