O CEBRAP como centro de referência para as ciências sociais nos anos setenta

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mudança de fronteiras étnicas e participação política de descendentes de imigrantes em São Paulo

This paper analyzes patterns of political mobility of a specific social stratum - immigrants and their descendants - in the western region of São Paulo, where coffee economy prevailed since the last quarter of the XIXth century. We investigate the main agents of local politics in seven cities: from the traditional oligarchic regime characteristic of the Old Republic to the processes of political transformation in the thirties that resulted in the post-war re-democratization, when a recomposition of local political elites takes place.

Einstellungen zur Demokratie in Kambodscha : Niveau und Determinanten der Demokratieunterstützung

Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, wie stark die Unterstützung eines demokratischen politischen Systems in der kambodschanischen Bevölkerung ist und welche Faktoren auf der Mikroebene die Demokratieunterstützung in Kambodscha beeinflussen. Hierfür werden das Unterstützungsmodell von Dieter Fuchs und die Modernisierungstheorie von Seymour Lipset für die Analyse von Einstellungen in einem autoritären politischen System modifiziert und entsprechend angepasste Hypothesen [zum Einfluss der Modernisierungsfaktoren auf die Demokratieunterstützung] formuliert. Nachdem die im Datensatz vorhandenen Einzelindikatoren zu Faktoren verdichtet und Probleme des Demokratieverständnisses und der Item-Nonresponse diskutiert wurden, werden Daten der zweiten Welle der Asian Barometer Survey 2008 analysiert. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen zwar, dass eine substantielle Minderheit das autoritäre Regime des Landes und seine Entscheidungsträger kritisch betrachtet, die Bindung an liberal-demokratische Werte aber eher schwach ausgeprägt ist. Bi- und multivariate Analysen deuten auf einen Einfluss von Faktoren wie Bildung, Einkommen und Wohnort hin und bestätigen somit weitgehend die Modernisierungstheorie, allerdings mit einer bedeutsamen Abweichung: Größere Zufriedenheit mit der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Lage führt zwar zu einer stärkeren Bindung an demokratische Werte, gleichzeitig aber auch zu einer größeren Unterstützung des autoritären Regimes und seiner Entscheidungsträger.

Testimonios de un Pasado Imperfecto : Vida Cotidiana de Mujeres bajo Dictadura en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar, Chile 1980-1987

Este proyecto de investigación se caracteriza como estudio histórico-etnográfica basado en estudios de casos de la vida cotidiana de nueve mujeres en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar durante la dictadura chilena, analizando el testimonio de los efectos del régimen autoritario en la vida cotidiana de estas mujeres chilenas entre 1980 y 1987. La metodología se radica firmemente en el método etnográfico con entrevistas semi-abiertas y el análisis del discurso de los relatos. En la metáfora de la arpillera (un tapiz anónimo cosido en lona ensamblado a partir de piezas de tela que muestra escenas de la vida cotidiana o protesta la dictadura de Pinochet), trozos y pedazos de experiencia se juntan en el encima de la lona de la historia para dar forma al testimonio de vida la vida cotidiana. Este proyecto se centra en tres aspectos diferentes de la relación entre el Estado autoritario y la vida cotidiana: las técnicas de gobernabilidad (macro), narraciones de silencio y miedo (micro) y trayectorias narrados (espacial), el último inspirado por el ensayo Halbwachs en caminar por la ciudad. Para cerrar, la relevancia del estudio se destaca por el intento de comprender el efecto de un estado autoritario en el sujeto femenino y las respuestas y adaptaciones que las mujeres chilenas adoptaron en la vida privada y pública mediada por la violencia y el miedo bajo dictadura. La dialéctica del acontecimiento y la rutina de la vida cotidiana bajo la dictadura se unen en las memorias narradas, mediada por el presente vivido, lo cual permite una reflexión sobre la cuestión de la alteridad en la sociedad chilena.Este proyecto de investigación se caracteriza como estudio histórico-etnográfica basado en estudios de casos de la vida cotidiana de nueve mujeres en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar durante la dictadura chilena, analizando el testimonio de los efectos del régimen autoritario en la vida cotidiana de estas mujeres chilenas entre 1980 y 1987. La metodología se radica firmemente en el método etnográfico con entrevistas semi-abiertas y el análisis del discurso de los relatos. En la metáfora de la arpillera (un tapiz anónimo cosido en lona ensamblado a partir de piezas de tela que muestra escenas de la vida cotidiana o protesta la dictadura de Pinochet), trozos y pedazos de experiencia se juntan en el encima de la lona de la historia para dar forma al testimonio de vida la vida cotidiana. Este proyecto se centra en tres aspectos diferentes de la relación entre el Estado autoritario y la vida cotidiana: las técnicas de gobernabilidad (macro), narraciones de silencio y miedo (micro) y trayectorias narrados (espacial), el último inspirado por el ensayo Halbwachs en caminar por la ciudad. Para cerrar, la relevancia del estudio se destaca por el intento de comprender el efecto de un estado autoritario en el sujeto femenino y las respuestas y adaptaciones que las mujeres chilenas adoptaron en la vida privada y pública mediada por la violencia y el miedo bajo dictadura. La dialéctica del acontecimiento y la rutina de la vida cotidiana bajo la dictadura se unen en las memorias narradas, mediada por el presente vivido, lo cual permite una reflexión sobre la cuestión de la alteridad en la sociedad chilena.

Testimonios de un Pasado Imperfecto : Vida Cotidiana de Mujeres bajo Dictadura en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar, Chile 1980-1987

Este proyecto de investigación se caracteriza como estudio histórico-etnográfica basado en estudios de casos de la vida cotidiana de nueve mujeres en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar durante la dictadura chilena, analizando el testimonio de los efectos del régimen autoritario en la vida cotidiana de estas mujeres chilenas entre 1980 y 1987. La metodología se radica firmemente en el método etnográfico con entrevistas semi-abiertas y el análisis del discurso de los relatos. En la metáfora de la arpillera (un tapiz anónimo cosido en lona ensamblado a partir de piezas de tela que muestra escenas de la vida cotidiana o protesta la dictadura de Pinochet), trozos y pedazos de experiencia se juntan en el encima de la lona de la historia para dar forma al testimonio de vida la vida cotidiana. Este proyecto se centra en tres aspectos diferentes de la relación entre el Estado autoritario y la vida cotidiana: las técnicas de gobernabilidad (macro), narraciones de silencio y miedo (micro) y trayectorias narrados (espacial), el último inspirado por el ensayo Halbwachs en caminar por la ciudad. Para cerrar, la relevancia del estudio se destaca por el intento de comprender el efecto de un estado autoritario en el sujeto femenino y las respuestas y adaptaciones que las mujeres chilenas adoptaron en la vida privada y pública mediada por la violencia y el miedo bajo dictadura. La dialéctica del acontecimiento y la rutina de la vida cotidiana bajo la dictadura se unen en las memorias narradas, mediada por el presente vivido, lo cual permite una reflexión sobre la cuestión de la alteridad en la sociedad chilena.Este proyecto de investigación se caracteriza como estudio histórico-etnográfica basado en estudios de casos de la vida cotidiana de nueve mujeres en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar durante la dictadura chilena, analizando el testimonio de los efectos del régimen autoritario en la vida cotidiana de estas mujeres chilenas entre 1980 y 1987. La metodología se radica firmemente en el método etnográfico con entrevistas semi-abiertas y el análisis del discurso de los relatos. En la metáfora de la arpillera (un tapiz anónimo cosido en lona ensamblado a partir de piezas de tela que muestra escenas de la vida cotidiana o protesta la dictadura de Pinochet), trozos y pedazos de experiencia se juntan en el encima de la lona de la historia para dar forma al testimonio de vida la vida cotidiana. Este proyecto se centra en tres aspectos diferentes de la relación entre el Estado autoritario y la vida cotidiana: las técnicas de gobernabilidad (macro), narraciones de silencio y miedo (micro) y trayectorias narrados (espacial), el último inspirado por el ensayo Halbwachs en caminar por la ciudad. Para cerrar, la relevancia del estudio se destaca por el intento de comprender el efecto de un estado autoritario en el sujeto femenino y las respuestas y adaptaciones que las mujeres chilenas adoptaron en la vida privada y pública mediada por la violencia y el miedo bajo dictadura. La dialéctica del acontecimiento y la rutina de la vida cotidiana bajo la dictadura se unen en las memorias narradas, mediada por el presente vivido, lo cual permite una reflexión sobre la cuestión de la alteridad en la sociedad chilena.

Testimonios de un Pasado Imperfecto : Vida Cotidiana de Mujeres bajo Dictadura en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar, Chile 1980-1987

Este proyecto de investigación se caracteriza como estudio histórico-etnográfica basado en estudios de casos de la vida cotidiana de nueve mujeres en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar durante la dictadura chilena, analizando el testimonio de los efectos del régimen autoritario en la vida cotidiana de estas mujeres chilenas entre 1980 y 1987. La metodología se radica firmemente en el método etnográfico con entrevistas semi-abiertas y el análisis del discurso de los relatos. En la metáfora de la arpillera (un tapiz anónimo cosido en lona ensamblado a partir de piezas de tela que muestra escenas de la vida cotidiana o protesta la dictadura de Pinochet), trozos y pedazos de experiencia se juntan en el encima de la lona de la historia para dar forma al testimonio de vida la vida cotidiana. Este proyecto se centra en tres aspectos diferentes de la relación entre el Estado autoritario y la vida cotidiana: las técnicas de gobernabilidad (macro), narraciones de silencio y miedo (micro) y trayectorias narrados (espacial), el último inspirado por el ensayo Halbwachs en caminar por la ciudad. Para cerrar, la relevancia del estudio se destaca por el intento de comprender el efecto de un estado autoritario en el sujeto femenino y las respuestas y adaptaciones que las mujeres chilenas adoptaron en la vida privada y pública mediada por la violencia y el miedo bajo dictadura. La dialéctica del acontecimiento y la rutina de la vida cotidiana bajo la dictadura se unen en las memorias narradas, mediada por el presente vivido, lo cual permite una reflexión sobre la cuestión de la alteridad en la sociedad chilena.Este proyecto de investigación se caracteriza como estudio histórico-etnográfica basado en estudios de casos de la vida cotidiana de nueve mujeres en Valparaíso y Viña del Mar durante la dictadura chilena, analizando el testimonio de los efectos del régimen autoritario en la vida cotidiana de estas mujeres chilenas entre 1980 y 1987. La metodología se radica firmemente en el método etnográfico con entrevistas semi-abiertas y el análisis del discurso de los relatos. En la metáfora de la arpillera (un tapiz anónimo cosido en lona ensamblado a partir de piezas de tela que muestra escenas de la vida cotidiana o protesta la dictadura de Pinochet), trozos y pedazos de experiencia se juntan en el encima de la lona de la historia para dar forma al testimonio de vida la vida cotidiana. Este proyecto se centra en tres aspectos diferentes de la relación entre el Estado autoritario y la vida cotidiana: las técnicas de gobernabilidad (macro), narraciones de silencio y miedo (micro) y trayectorias narrados (espacial), el último inspirado por el ensayo Halbwachs en caminar por la ciudad. Para cerrar, la relevancia del estudio se destaca por el intento de comprender el efecto de un estado autoritario en el sujeto femenino y las respuestas y adaptaciones que las mujeres chilenas adoptaron en la vida privada y pública mediada por la violencia y el miedo bajo dictadura. La dialéctica del acontecimiento y la rutina de la vida cotidiana bajo la dictadura se unen en las memorias narradas, mediada por el presente vivido, lo cual permite una reflexión sobre la cuestión de la alteridad en la sociedad chilena.

Democratization and Financial Reform in Taiwan: The Political Economy of Bad-Loan Creation

This study shows that many bad loans now burdening Taiwan's financial institutions are interrelated with the society's democratization which started in the late 1980s. Democratization made the local factions and business groups more independent from the Kuomintang government. They acquired more political influence than under the authoritarian regime. These changes induced them to manage their owned financial institutions more arbitrarily and to intervene more frequently in the state-affiliated financial institutions. Moreover they interfered in financial reform and compelled the government to allow many more new banks than it had originally planned. As a result the financial system became more competitive and the qualities of loans deteriorated. Some local factions and business groups exacerbated the situation by establishing banks in order to funnel funds to themselves, sometimes illegally. Thus many bad loans were created as the side effect of democratization.

Politics of the 1945 Constitution:Democratization and Its Impact on Political Institutions in Indonesia

Introduction : Before 1998, no one could think about the amendment of the 1945 Constitution. The 1945 Constitution was a product of nationalist who had hard fought for independence from the Dutch colonization. This historical background made it the symbol of independence of the Indonesian nation. Thus, it has been considered as forbidden to touch contents of the 1945 Constitution whereas political leaders have legitimized their authoritarian rulership by utilizing a symbolic character of the Constitution. With the largest political turmoil since its independence, that is, a breakdown of authoritarian regime and democratic transformation in 1998-1999, however, a myth of the "sacred and inviolable" constitution has disappeared. A new theme has then aroused: how can the 1945 Constitution be adapted for a new democratic regime in Indonesia? 　　　The Indonesian modern state has applied the 1945 Constitution as the basic law since its independence in 1945, except for around 10 years in the 1950s. In the period of independence struggle, contrary to the constitutional provision that a kind of presidential system is employed, a cabinet responsible for the Central National Committee was installed. Politics under this institution was in practice a parliamentary system of government. After the Dutch transferred sovereignty to Indonesia in 1949, West European constitutionalism and party politics under a parliamentary system was fully adopted with the introduction of two new constitutions: the 1949 Constitution of Federal Republic of Indonesia and the 1950 Provisional Constitution of Republic of Indonesia. Since a return from the 1950 Constitution to the 1945 Constitution was decided with the Presidential Decree in 1959, the 1945 Constitution had supported two authoritarian regimes of Soekarno's "Guided Democracy" and Soeharto's "New Order" as a legal base. When the 32-year Soeharto's government fell down and democratization started in 1998, the 1945 Constitution was not replaced with a new one, as seen in many other democratizing countries, but successively reformed to adapt itself to a new democratic regime. In the result of four constitutional amendments in 1999-2002, political institutions in Indonesia are experiencing a transformation from an authoritative structure, in which the executive branch monopolized power along with incompetent legislative and judicial branches, to a modern democratic structure, in which the legislative branch can maintain predominance over the executive. However, as observed that President Abdurrahman Wahid, the first president ever elected democratically in Indonesian history, was impeached after one and a half years in office, democratic politics under a new political institution has never been stable. 　　　Under the 1945 Constitution, how did authoritarian regimes maintain stability? Why can a democratic regime not achieve its stability? What did the two constitutional amendments in the process of democratization change? In the first place, how did the political institutions stipulated by the 1945 Constitution come out? Through answering the above questions, this chapter intends to survey the historical continuity and change of political institutions in Indonesia along with the 1945 Constitutions and to analyze impact of regime transformation on political institutions. First, we examine political institutions stipulated by the original 1945 Constitution as well as historical and philosophical origins of the constitution. Second, we search constitutional foundations in the 1945 Constitution that made it possible for Soekarno and Soeharto to establish and maintain authoritarian regimes. Third, we examine contents of constitutional amendments in the process of democratization since 1998. Fourth, we analyze new political dynamics caused by constitutional changes, looking at the impeachment process of President Abdurrahman Wahid. Finally, we consider tasks faced by Indonesia that seeks to establish a stable democracy.

The urban middle class in the instability of new democracies

The recent revolts of the middle class in the national capitals of the Philippines and Thailand have raised a new question about democratic consolidation. Why would the urban middle class, which is expected to stabilize democracy, expel the democratically elected leaders through extra-constitutional action? This article seeks to explain such middle class deviation from democratic institutions through an examination of urban primacy and the change in the winning coalition. The authoritarian regime previously in power tended to give considerable favor to the primate city to prevent it revolting against the ruler, because it could have become a menace to his power. But after democratization the new administration shifts policy orientation from an urban to rural bias because it needs to garner support from rural voters to win elections. Such a shift dissatisfies the middle class in the primate city. In this article I take up the Philippines as a case study to examine this theory.

Post-1988 civil-military relations in Myanmar

This paper explores the development of civil–military relations in Myanmar since 1988. After the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) took over the state by means of a coup d’état in 1988, the top generals ruled the country without recourse to significant formal political institutions such as a constitution, elections and parliament. A unique authoritarian regime, where political power was predominantly under the military’s influence, lasted for more than 20 years in the country. It seemed to many observers that the military regime was highly durable and that its dictator, General Than Shwe, had no intention of altering the highly repressive character of the political system. However, a new leader, President Thein Sein, who came to power in March 2011, has decided to implement some political and economic reforms that could undermine the Tatmadaw’s dominant role in politics and the economy. This paper examines the background to this sudden political change in Myanmar, focusing on the relationship between its dictator, the military and the state. This paper’s main argument is that Than Shwe has carefully prepared the transition of 2011 as a generational change in the Tatmadaw and in state leadership. The argument is also made that the challenges created by Thein Sein can be understood as a result of his redefinition of national security and balancing of security-centralism with state-led developmentalism.

Trudny "Sojusznik" Bialorus w polityce Rosji. Prace OSW 2008. = Difficult "ally." Belarus in Russia's foreign policy. OSW Study 28/2008

Belarus holds a special position in Russian policy due to its geopolitical, military and transit significance. Russia's influence and position in the entire Eastern European region largely depend on how strong Russian influence in Belarus is. The process of Russian-Belarusian integration began in 1994, when Alyaksandr Lukashenka came to power in Minsk. At the time, Russia's policy towards Belarus was based on twomain assumptions. Firstly, the Kremlin supported Lukashenka's authoritarian regime. This allowed Russia to keep Belarus within its orbit of political influence and prevent other states from getting involved, since an undemocratic Belarus could not count on closer contacts with the West. Secondly, Russia heavily subsidised Belarus with cheap energy resources (way below the market price) and allowed the duty-free access of Belarusian goods to its market. Thus Belarus became a kind of 'sponsored authoritarianism' with a specific economic model, owing its existence to Russia's economic and political support. At the same time, Moscow's key objective in its policy towards Belarus was to make Minsk accept the Russian conditions concerning integration, which would in fact lead to Belarus' incorporation by the Russian Federation. However, Belarus managed to maintain its sovereignty, while Alyaksandr Lukashenka bandied the term 'integration' about in order to maintain the preferential model of his state's relations with Russia. Russia's intention to alter the nature of these bilateral relations became evident when Vladimir Putin took power in 2000. However, Moscow faced Minsk's refusal to accept the Russian integration plan (which, among other measures, provided for the takeover of Belarusian economic assets by Russian companies). This forced Russia to use its main tool against Minsk: the supplies of cheap gas and oil that had been sustaining Belarus' archaic economy. The most serious crisis in Russian-Belarusian relations broke out at the beginning of 2007, following Moscow's decision to raise the energy resource prices. This decision marked the beginning of the application of market principles to settlements between Moscow and Minsk. The key question this study is meant to answer concerns the consequences of the aforementioned decision by Russia for future Russian-Belarusian relations. Are they at a turning point? What are Russia's policy objectives? What results can come from the process of moving mutual relations onto an economic footing? What policy will replace Russia's 'sponsoring of Belarusian authoritarianism', which it has been implementing since 1994? Finally, what further measures will Russia undertake towards Belarus? The current study consists of five chapters. The first chapter offers a brief presentation of Belarus' significance and position in Russian policy. The second analyses the development of Russian-Belarusian political relations, first of all the establishment of the Union State, Belarus' position in Russian domestic policy and Russia's influence on Belarusian policy. The third chapter presents bilateral economic relations, primarily energy issues. The fourth chapter describes the state and perspectives of military cooperation between the two states. The fifth chapter presents conclusions, where the author attempts to define the essence of the ongoing re-evaluation in Russian-Belarusian relations and to project their future model.

On the verge of crisis? Mounting economic problems in Belarus. OSW Commentary No. 51, 2011-04-06

Belarus’s financial condition has visibly worsened since the beginning of this year. The severe falls in the country’s foreign currency reserves and its shortage of foreign currency on the international market pose an increasing threat to the stability of the Belarusian economy. Fearing an outbreak of public dissatisfaction, The government has so far been trying to avoid devaluing the rouble or structural economic reforms. Maintaining full control inside the country and the stability of the authoritarian regime are still the main concerns for President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. For this reason, the actions taken by the Belarusian government have been limited to imposing short-term administrative restrictions on the foreign currency market and obtaining external support in the form of loans. Given Belarus’s falling creditworthiness, Minsk is only able to ask Russia for financial support, thus offering the Kremlin more opportunities to realise its desire to take over strategic industrial plants in Belarus. However, the present economic problems of Belarus are so serious that no loan will be able to safeguard its government from the need of carrying out serious economic reforms.

Ukraine, Another point of view. OSW Point of View (Unspecified), February 2003

Ukraine is a difficult partner for the West, and recently, it has been perceived as an enfant terrible because of the Kolchuga affair. Western and Polish press describe Ukraine as an authoritarian regime plagued by an internal crisis or even threatened by destabilisation. This picture is certainly one-sided and oversimplified, and it fails to accurately present the reality of Ukraine. Apart from experiencing definitely adverse political developments, Ukraine has also been successful in some ways in terms of its internal and foreign policies and the economy. At the same time, certain processes take place among the Ukrainian elites, that might be difficult to capture in social surveys, but may become the starting point for the future modernisation and democratisation of the country. To realise that there are some favourable aspects to the changes occurring in Ukraine is not to recognise Ukraine as a country heading to democratisation and a market economy in the Western sense. Still, it is worthwhile to understand that the positive developments, even if isolated, do occur in Ukraine and that they could be strengthened by adequate policies of the Ukrainian authorities and the Western states.

Women's political participation in Tunisia. Arab Citizenship Review No. 14, 21 January 2016

The collapse of the authoritarian regime in Tunisia in 2011 has given women new opportunities to participate in political life and in civil society activities, standing for elections (2011 and 2014) or becoming members of political parties and associations. Nevertheless, despite these advances and the already positive point of de- parture thanks to the legacy of Bourguiba, the “liberator of the country and the women”, participation of women remains unsatisfactory. While Tunisian women have enjoyed extended individual rights, especially compared to Arab women in general, since the country became independent in 1956, their political participation has remained controlled by the state.T he challenge of increasing the political participation of women, even in a democratic phase of the country’s political life, remains.The new electoral laws from 2011 and 2014 endorse parity and women rights, now guaranteed by the Constitution. However, the implementation of these rights is still at stake.

A kínai reformfolyamat politikai gazdaságtani logikája (The politico-economic logic of the Chinese reform process)

Kína az elmúlt több mint három évtizedben szegény, elmaradott országból a világgazdaság egyik legfontosabb szereplője lett. Szocialista rendszerét egy sajátos kapitalista rendszer váltotta fel, miközben politikai struktúrája lényegében változatlan maradt. A folyamatok során a vezetés mindvégig ügyelt arra, hogy a kommunista párt egyeduralmát semmi se veszélyeztethesse, ugyanakkor megfelelő források álljanak rendelkezésre hatalma megtartásához. A tanulmány a kínai reformfolyamatot politikai gazdaságtani szempontból vizsgálja, különös figyelmet szentelve az intézményi változásoknak. Bemutatja, milyen okok és tényezők álltak a reformok elindításának hátterében, milyen változások következtek be a szereplők érdekviszonyaiban a reformok előrehaladtával, és mire lehet számítani a reformok jövőjét illetően. Úgy tűnik, hogy a jelenlegi rendszer érdekviszonyai a reformok folytatása ellen hatnak, ellehetetlenítve a piacgazdaság intézményrendszerének további kiépítését. A járadékok és privilégiumok az elitet abban sem teszik érdekeltté, hogy komolyabb politikai reformokat hajtson végre, így a kialakuló csapdahelyzet megakadályozza az átmenet kiteljesedését. ____ In the last three decades China has risen from being a poor and underdeveloped country to being one of the most important players in the world economy. Its planned economy has been replaced by a capitalist system, but its political structure has remained essentially unchanged. The leaders during the reform process have sought constantly to avert dangers to the rule of the Communist Party and gain access to valuable resources that allow power to be retained. The study approaches the Chinese reform process from a politico-economic point of view, focusing primarily on institutional changes. It reveals the main factors behind the various phases of reform, the constantly changing interests of the players, and the possible future of the process. It seems that under the current authoritarian regime, there are vested interests working against a continuation of the reforms and precluding full establishment of the institutional framework of a market economy. The elite is also deterred from implementing serious political reforms by the current rents and privileges. This leads to a trap that prevents completion of the transition process.