MCMC Analysis Of Classical Time Series Algorithms

Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.

Advances and limitations in the attention to the problems of housing and urban land in Mexico. An approach from the legal-institutional frame

In this work we analyze the reforms carried out by the Mexican state in the nineties of the 20th century, in the items concerning the policies of housing and urban land, based on an exhaustive review of the main actions, programs and changes in the legal and institutional frame that applies for each of these fields. The nineties represent a "breaking point" in the way the State considers the satisfaction of the right to the housing and attends the offer of urbanized land for a tidy and sustainable urban development. In this period of time, the approach of direct intervention in developing and financing housing and creation of land reserves has changed into another one, ruled by the logic of the market. The balance to the first decade of the 21st century is ambiguous, as neither the housing policy has solved the housing shortage for low-income population, nor the land policy has eliminated the illegal urban growth.

Solitons of two-component Bose-Einstein condensates modulated in space and time

In this Letter we present soliton solutions of two coupled nonlinear Schrodinger equations modulated in space and time. The approach allows us to obtain solitons for a large variety of solutions depending on the nonlinearity and potential profiles. As examples we show three cases with soliton solutions: a solution for the case of a potential changing from repulsive to attractive behavior, and the other two solutions corresponding to localized and delocalized nonlinearity terms, respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelagem do mCSEM no domínio do tempo usando transformada discreta de Fourier

A modelagem do mCSEM é feita normalmente no domínio da frequência, desde sua formulação teórica até a análise dos resultados, devido às simplificações nas equações de Maxwell, possibilitadas quando trabalhamos em um regime de baixa frequência. No entanto, a abordagem através do domínio do tempo pode em princípio fornecer informação equivalente sobre a geofísica da subsuperfície aos dados no domínio da frequência. Neste trabalho, modelamos o mCSEM no domínio da frequência em modelos unidimensionais, e usamos a transformada discreta de Fourier para obter os dados no domínio do tempo. Simulamos ambientes geológicos marinhos com e sem uma camada resistiva, que representa um reservatório de hidrocarbonetos. Verificamos que os dados no domínio do tempo apresentam diferenças quando calculados para os modelos com e sem hidrocarbonetos em praticamente todas as configurações de modelo. Calculamos os resultados considerando variações na profundidade do mar, na posição dos receptores e na resistividade da camada de hidrocarbonetos. Observamos a influência da airwave, presente mesmo em profundidades oceânicas com mais de 1000m, e apesar de não ser possível uma simples separação dessa influência nos dados, o domínio do tempo nos permitiu fazer uma análise de seus efeitos sobre o levantamento. Como parte da preparação para a modelagem em ambientes 2D e 3D, fazemos também um estudo sobre o ganho de desempenho pelo uso do paralelismo computacional em nossa tarefa.

The detection of Cryptosporidium serpentis in snake fecal samples by real-time PCR

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Surgical time and complications of total transvaginal (total-NOTES), single-port laparoscopic-assisted and conventional ovariohysterectomy in bitches

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland

SUMMARY Campylobacteriosis has been the most common food-associated notifiable infectious disease in Switzerland since 1995. Contact with and ingestion of raw or undercooked broilers are considered the dominant risk factors for infection. In this study, we investigated the temporal relationship between the disease incidence in humans and the prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012. We use a time-series approach to describe the pattern of the disease by incorporating seasonal effects and autocorrelation. The analysis shows that prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers, with a 2-week lag, has a significant impact on disease incidence in humans. Therefore Campylobacter cases in humans can be partly explained by contagion through broiler meat. We also found a strong autoregressive effect in human illness, and a significant increase of illness during Christmas and New Year's holidays. In a final analysis, we corrected for the sampling error of prevalence in broilers and the results gave similar conclusions.

Coupling time-stepping numerical methods and standard aerodynamics codes for instability analysis of flows in complex geometries

The development of a global instability analysis code coupling a time-stepping approach, as applied to the solution of BiGlobal and TriGlobal instability analysis 1, 2 and finite-volume-based spatial discretization, as used in standard aerodynamics codes is presented. The key advantage of the time-stepping method over matrix-formulation approaches is that the former provides a solution to the computer-storage issues associated with the latter methodology. To-date both approaches are successfully in use to analyze instability in complex geometries, although their relative advantages have never been quantified. The ultimate goal of the present work is to address this issue in the context of spatial discretization schemes typically used in industry. The time-stepping approach of Chiba 3 has been implemented in conjunction with two direct numerical simulation algorithms, one based on the typically-used in this context high-order method and another based on low-order methods representative of those in common use in industry. The two codes have been validated with solutions of the BiGlobal EVP and it has been showed that small errors in the base flow do not have affect significantly the results. As a result, a three-dimensional compressible unsteady second-order code for global linear stability has been successfully developed based on finite-volume spatial discretization and time-stepping method with the ability to study complex geometries by means of unstructured and hybrid meshes

Matrix-free time-stepping methods for the solution of TriGlobal instability problems

La inmensa mayoría de los flujos de relevancia ingenieril permanecen sin estudiar en el marco de la teoría de estabilidad global. Esto es debido a dos razones fundamentalmente, las dificultades asociadas con el análisis de los flujos turbulentos y los inmensos recursos computacionales requeridos para obtener la solución del problema de autovalores asociado al análisis de inestabilidad de flujos tridimensionales, también conocido como problema TriGlobal. En esta tesis se aborda el problema asociado con la tridimensionalidad. Se ha desarrollado una metodología general para obtener soluciones de problemas de análisis modal de las inestabilidades lineales globales mediante el acoplamiento de métodos de evolución temporal, desarrollados en este trabajo, con códigos de mecánica de fluidos computacional de segundo orden, utilizados de forma general en la industria. Esta metodología consiste en la resolución del problema de autovalores asociado al análisis de inestabilidad mediante métodos de proyección en subespacios de Krylov, con la particularidad de que dichos subespacios son generados por medio de la integración temporal de un vector inicial usando cualquier código de mecánica de fluidos computacional. Se han elegido tres problemas desafiantes en función de la exigencia de recursos computacionales necesarios y de la complejidad física para la demostración de la presente metodología: (i) el flujo en el interior de una cavidad tridimensional impulsada por una de sus tapas, (ii) el flujo alrededor de un cilindro equipado con aletas helicoidales a lo largo su envergadura y (iii) el flujo a través de una cavidad abierta tridimensinal en ausencia de homogeneidades espaciales. Para la validación de la tecnología se ha obtenido la solución del problema TriGlobal asociado al flujo en la cavidad tridimensional, utilizando el método de evolución temporal desarrollado acoplado con los operadores numéricos de flujo incompresible del código CFD OpenFOAM (código libre). Los resultados obtenidos coinciden plentamente con la literatura. La aplicación de esta metodología al estudio de inestabilidades globales de flujos abiertos tridimensionales ha proporcionado por primera vez, información sobre la transición tridimensional de estos flujos. Además, la metodología ha sido adaptada para resolver problemas adjuntos TriGlobales, permitiendo el control de flujo basado en modificaciones de las inestabilidades globales. Finalmente, se ha demostrado que la cantidad moderada de los recursos computacionales requeridos para la solución del problema de valor propio TriGlobal usando este método numérico, junto a su versatilidad al poder acoplarse a cualquier código aerodinámico, permite la realización de análisis de inestabilidad global y control de flujos complejos de relevancia industrial. Abstract Most flows of engineering relevance still remain unexplored in a global instability theory context for two reasons. First, because of the difficulties associated with the analysis of turbulent flows and, second, for the formidable computational resources required for the solution of the eigenvalue problem associated with the instability analysis of three-dimensional base flows, also known as TriGlobal problem. In this thesis, the problem associated with the three-dimensionality is addressed by means of the development of a general approach to the solution of large-scale global linear instability analysis by coupling a time-stepping approach with second order aerodynamic codes employed in industry. Three challenging flows in the terms of required computational resources and physical complexity have been chosen for demonstration of the present methodology; (i) the flow inside a wall-bounded three-dimensional lid-driven cavity, (ii) the flow past a cylinder fitted with helical strakes and (iii) the flow over a inhomogeneous three-dimensional open cavity. Results in excellent agreement with the literature have been obtained for the three-dimensional lid-driven cavity by using this methodology coupled with the incompressible solver of the open-source toolbox OpenFOAM®, which has served as validation. Moreover, significant physical insight of the instability of three-dimensional open flows has been gained through the application of the present time-stepping methodology to the other two cases. In addition, modifications to the present approach have been proposed in order to perform adjoint instability analysis of three-dimensional base flows and flow control; validation and TriGlobal examples are presented. Finally, it has been demonstrated that the moderate amount of computational resources required for the solution of the TriGlobal eigenvalue problem using this method enables the performance of instability analysis and control of flows of industrial relevance.

Minimum time control for multiphase buck converter: analysis and application

The combination of minimum time control and multiphase converter is a favorable option for dc-dc converters in applications where output voltage variation is required, such as RF amplifiers and dynamic voltage scaling in microprocessors, due to their advantage of fast dynamic response. In this paper, an improved minimum time control approach for multiphase buck converter that is based on charge balance technique, aiming at fast output voltage transition is presented. Compared with the traditional method, the proposed control takes into account the phase delay and current ripple in each phase. Therefore, by investigating the behavior of multiphase converter during voltage transition, it resolves the problem of current unbalance after the transient, which can lead to long settling time of the output voltage. The restriction of this control is that the output voltage that the converter can provide is related to the number of the phases, because only the duty cycles at which the multiphase converter has total ripple cancellation are used in this approach. The model of the proposed control is introduced, and the design constraints of the buck converters filter for this control are discussed. In order to prove the concept, a four-phase buck converter is implemented and the experimental results that validate the proposed control method are presented. The application of this control to RF envelope tracking is also presented in this paper.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

Biological and environmental time series obtained from Point B, Bay of Villefranche

Ecological succession provides a widely accepted description of seasonal changes in phytoplankton and mesozooplankton assemblages in the natural environment, but concurrent changes in smaller (i.e. microbes) and larger (i.e. macroplankton) organisms are not included in the model because plankton ranging from bacteria to jellies are seldom sampled and analyzed simultaneously. Here we studied, for the first time in the aquatic literature, the succession of marine plankton in the whole-plankton assemblage that spanned 5 orders of magnitude in size from microbes to macroplankton predators (not including fish or fish larvae, for which no consistent data were available). Samples were collected in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Bay of Villefranche) weekly during 10 months. Simultaneously collected samples were analyzed by flow cytometry, inverse microscopy, FlowCam, and ZooScan. The whole-plankton assemblage underwent sharp reorganizations that corresponded to bottom-up events of vertical mixing in the water-column, and its development was top-down controlled by large gelatinous filter feeders and predators. Based on the results provided by our novel whole-plankton assemblage approach, we propose a new comprehensive conceptual model of the annual plankton succession (i.e. whole plankton model) characterized by both stepwise stacking of four broad trophic communities from early spring through summer, which is a new concept, and progressive replacement of ecological plankton categories within the different trophic communities, as recognised traditionally.

Design and implementation of generalized topologies of time-interleaved variable bandpass Σ−Δ modulators

In this thesis, novel analog-to-digital and digital-to-analog generalized time-interleaved variable bandpass sigma-delta modulators are designed, analysed, evaluated and implemented that are suitable for high performance data conversion for a broad-spectrum of applications. These generalized time-interleaved variable bandpass sigma-delta modulators can perform noise-shaping for any centre frequency from DC to Nyquist. The proposed topologies are well-suited for Butterworth, Chebyshev, inverse-Chebyshev and elliptical filters, where designers have the flexibility of specifying the centre frequency, bandwidth as well as the passband and stopband attenuation parameters. The application of the time-interleaving approach, in combination with these bandpass loop-filters, not only overcomes the limitations that are associated with conventional and mid-band resonator-based bandpass sigma-delta modulators, but also offers an elegant means to increase the conversion bandwidth, thereby relaxing the need to use faster or higher-order sigma-delta modulators. A step-by-step design technique has been developed for the design of time-interleaved variable bandpass sigma-delta modulators. Using this technique, an assortment of lower- and higher-order single- and multi-path generalized A/D variable bandpass sigma-delta modulators were designed, evaluated and compared in terms of their signal-to-noise ratios, hardware complexity, stability, tonality and sensitivity for ideal and non-ideal topologies. Extensive behavioural-level simulations verified that one of the proposed topologies not only used fewer coefficients but also exhibited greater robustness to non-idealties. Furthermore, second-, fourth- and sixth-order single- and multi-path digital variable bandpass digital sigma-delta modulators are designed using this technique. The mathematical modelling and evaluation of tones caused by the finite wordlengths of these digital multi-path sigmadelta modulators, when excited by sinusoidal input signals, are also derived from first principles and verified using simulation and experimental results. The fourth-order digital variable-band sigma-delta modulator topologies are implemented in VHDL and synthesized on Xilinx® SpartanTM-3 Development Kit using fixed-point arithmetic. Circuit outputs were taken via RS232 connection provided on the FPGA board and evaluated using MATLAB routines developed by the author. These routines included the decimation process as well. The experiments undertaken by the author further validated the design methodology presented in the work. In addition, a novel tunable and reconfigurable second-order variable bandpass sigma-delta modulator has been designed and evaluated at the behavioural-level. This topology offers a flexible set of choices for designers and can operate either in single- or dual-mode enabling multi-band implementations on a single digital variable bandpass sigma-delta modulator. This work is also supported by a novel user-friendly design and evaluation tool that has been developed in MATLAB/Simulink that can speed-up the design, evaluation and comparison of analog and digital single-stage and time-interleaved variable bandpass sigma-delta modulators. This tool enables the user to specify the conversion type, topology, loop-filter type, path number and oversampling ratio.