A method of lines approach for modelling saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifiers

The equations governing saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers are complex. Backward Euler time stepping approaches are often used to advance the solution to these equations in time, which typically requires that small time steps be taken in order to ensure that an accurate solution is obtained. We show that a method of lines approach incorporating variable order backward differentiation formulas can greatly improve the efficiency of the time stepping process.

When 'listeners can't talk' : comparing active listening in opening sequences of telephone and online counselling

While there is growing use of online counselling, little is known about its interactional organisation and how it compares to telephone counselling. This is despite past research suggesting that both counsellors and clients report the impact of the different modalities on the presentation and management of the counselling interaction. This paper compares the interactional affordances of telephone and online web counselling in opening sequences on Kids Help Line, a 24-hour Australian counselling service for children and young people up to the age of 25. We examine two ways that counsellors show active listening through response tokens and formulations. The analysis describes how counsellors’ use of minimal response tokens facilitate the clients’ problem presentation and are used in the management of turn taking and sequence organisation. For example, counsellors use the response token Mm hm to show that they understand that the client’s unit of talk to is not yet complete, and to affirm or invite the client to continue speaking. Formulations in phone and web counselling are another way that counsellors display active listening to re-present stretches of the clients’ preceding talk. In phone and web counselling, however, the respective modalities can complicate matters of turn transition and sequence organisation. By examining actual phone and online counselling sessions, this paper offers empirical demonstrations of the interactional affordances of phone and online counselling, and shows how the institutional practice of active listening is accomplished across different counselling modalities

Unsupervised speaker adaptation for telephone call transcription

The use of the PC and Internet for placing telephone calls will present new opportunities to capture vast amounts of un-transcribed speech for a particular speaker. This paper investigates how to best exploit this data for speaker-dependent speech recognition. Supervised and unsupervised experiments in acoustic model and language model adaptation are presented. Using one hour of automatically transcribed speech per speaker with a word error rate of 36.0%, unsupervised adaptation resulted in an absolute gain of 6.3%, equivalent to 70% of the gain from the supervised case, with additional adaptation data likely to yield further improvements. LM adaptation experiments suggested that although there seems to be a small degree of speaker idiolect, adaptation to the speaker alone, without considering the topic of the conversation, is in itself unlikely to improve transcription accuracy.

Cost-effectiveness of a telephone-delivered intervention for physical activity and diet

Background: Given escalating rates of chronic disease, broad-reach and cost-effective interventions to increase physical activity and improve dietary intake are needed. The cost-effectiveness of a Telephone Counselling intervention to improve physical activity and diet, targeting adults with established chronic diseases in a low socio-economic area of a major Australian city was examined. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cost-effectiveness modelling study using data collected between February 2005 and November 2007 from a cluster-randomised trial that compared Telephone Counselling with a “Usual Care” (brief intervention) alternative. Economic outcomes were assessed using a state-transition Markov model, which predicted the progress of participants through five health states relating to physical activity and dietary improvement, for ten years after recruitment. The costs and health benefits of Telephone Counselling, Usual Care and an existing practice (Real Control) group were compared. Telephone Counselling compared to Usual Care was not cost-effective ($78,489 per quality adjusted life year gained). However, the Usual Care group did not represent existing practice and is not a useful comparator for decision making. Comparing Telephone Counselling outcomes to existing practice (Real Control), the intervention was found to be cost-effective ($29,375 per quality adjusted life year gained). Usual Care (brief intervention) compared to existing practice (Real Control) was also cost-effective ($12,153 per quality adjusted life year gained). Conclusions/Significance: This modelling study shows that a decision to adopt a Telephone Counselling program over existing practice (Real Control) is likely to be cost-effective. Choosing the ‘Usual Care’ brief intervention over existing practice (Real Control) shows a lower cost per quality adjusted life year, but the lack of supporting evidence for efficacy or sustainability is an important consideration for decision makers. The economics of behavioural approaches to improving health must be made explicit if decision makers are to be convinced that allocating resources toward such programs is worthwhile.

Determination of optimal preventive maintenance strategy for serial production lines

A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal Preventive Maintenance decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple PM actions over multiple intervals. Both risk related cost and maintenance related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimized considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimize Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

Knowledge, attitudes and beliefs towards injury prevention : a population based telephone survey

Public knowledge and beliefs about injury prevention are currently poorly understood. A total of 1030 residents in the State of Queensland, Australia responded to questions about injury prevention in or around the home, on the roads, in or on the water, at work, deliberate injury, and responsibility for preventing deliberate injury allowing comparison with published injury prevalence data. Overall the youngest members of society were identified as being the most vulnerable to deliberate injury with young adults accounting for 59% of responses aligning with published data. However, younger adults failed to indicate an awareness of their own vulnerability to deliberate injury in alcohol environments even though 61% of older respondents were aware of this trend. Older respondents were the least inclined to agree that they could make a difference to their own safety in or around the home but were more inclined to agree that they could make a difference to their own safety at work. The results are discussed with a view to using improved awareness of public beliefs about injury to identify barriers to the uptake of injury prevention strategies (e.g. low perceived injury risk) as well as areas where injury prevention strategies may receive public support.

Telephone reliability of the Frenchay Activity Index and EQ-5D amongst older adults

Background Older adults may find it problematic to attend hospital appointments due to the difficulty associated with travelling to, within and from a hospital facility for the purpose of a face-to-face assessment. This study aims to investigate equivalence between telephone and face-to-face administration for the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) and the Euroqol-5D (EQ-5D) generic health-related quality of life instrument amongst an older adult population. Methods Patients aged >65 (n = 53) who had been discharged to the community following an acute hospital admission underwent telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments seven days prior to attending a hospital outpatient appointment where they completed a face-to-face administration of these instruments. Results Overall, 40 subjects' datasets were complete for both assessments and included in analysis. The FAI items had high levels of agreement between the two modes of administration (item kappa's ranged 0.73 to 1.00) as did the EQ-5D (item kappa's ranged 0.67–0.83). For the FAI, EQ-5D VAS and EQ-5D utility score, intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.94, 0.58 and 0.82 respectively with paired t-tests indicating no significant systematic difference (p = 0.100, p = 0.690 and p = 0.290 respectively). Conclusion Telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments provides comparable results to face-to-face administration amongst older adults deemed to have cognitive functioning intact at a basic level, indicating that this is a suitable alternate approach for collection of this information.

Electronic telephone directory listings : preferred sampling frame for a population-based study of childhood cancer in Australia

PURPOSE: We report our telephone-based system for selecting community control series appropriate for a complete Australia-wide series of Ewing's sarcoma cases. METHODS: We used electronic directory random sampling to select age-matched controls. The sampling has all listed telephone numbers on an up-dated CD-Rom. RESULTS: 95% of 2245 telephone numbers selected were successfully contacted. The mean number of attempts needed was 1.94, 58% answering at the first attempt. On average, we needed 4.5 contacts per control selected. Calls were more likely to be successful (reach a respondent) when made in the evening (except Saturdays). The overall response rate among contacted telephone numbers was 92.8%. Participation rates among female and male respondents were practically the same. The exclusion of unlisted numbers (13.5% of connected households) and unconnected households (3.7%) led to potential selection bias. However, restricting the case series to listed cases only, plus having external information on the direction of potential bias allow meaningful interpretation of our data. CONCLUSION: Sampling from an electronic directory is convenient, economical and simple, and gives a very good yield of eligible subjects compared to other methods.

Exponential asymptotics with multiple stokes lines

When asymptotic series methods are applied in order to solve problems that arise in applied mathematics in the limit that some parameter becomes small, they are unable to demonstrate behaviour that occurs on a scale that is exponentially small compared to the algebraic terms of the asymptotic series. There are many examples of physical systems where behaviour on this scale has important effects and, as such, a range of techniques known as exponential asymptotic techniques were developed that may be used to examinine behaviour on this exponentially small scale. Many problems in applied mathematics may be represented by behaviour within the complex plane, which may subsequently be examined using asymptotic methods. These problems frequently demonstrate behaviour known as Stokes phenomenon, which involves the rapid switches of behaviour on an exponentially small scale in the neighbourhood of some curve known as a Stokes line. Exponential asymptotic techniques have been applied in order to obtain an expression for this exponentially small switching behaviour in the solutions to orginary and partial differential equations. The problem of potential flow over a submerged obstacle has been previously considered in this manner by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006). By representing the problem in the complex plane and applying an exponential asymptotic technique, they were able to detect the switching, and subsequent behaviour, of exponentially small waves on the free surface of the flow in the limit of small Froude number, specifically considering the case of flow over a step with one Stokes line present in the complex plane. We consider an extension of this work to flow configurations with multiple Stokes lines, such as flow over an inclined step, or flow over a bump or trench. The resultant expressions are analysed, and demonstrate interesting implications, such as the presence of exponentially sub-subdominant intermediate waves and the possibility of trapped surface waves for flow over a bump or trench. We then consider the effect of multiple Stokes lines in higher order equations, particu- larly investigating the behaviour of higher-order Stokes lines in the solutions to partial differential equations. These higher-order Stokes lines switch off the ordinary Stokes lines themselves, adding a layer of complexity to the overall Stokes structure of the solution. Specifically, we consider the different approaches taken by Howls et al. (2004) and Chap- man & Mortimer (2005) in applying exponential asymptotic techniques to determine the higher-order Stokes phenomenon behaviour in the solution to a particular partial differ- ential equation.