What if firms adjust their debt-equity ratios toward a target range?

We estimate optimal target-ranges of capital structure controlling for a series of firmspecific characteristics and accounting for the serial correlation that arises from the dynamic component of the leverage choice. Then, we empirically examine if firms adjust their leverages toward the estimated optimal ranges. Our analysis suggests that the observed behavior of firms is consistent with the notion of range-adjustment.

Low initial aspect-ratio direct-drive target designs for shock- or self-ignition in the context of the laser Megajoule

Analysis of low initial aspect ratio direct-drive target designs is carried out by varying the implosion velocity and the fuel mass. Starting from two different spherical targets with a given 300?g-DT mass, optimization of laser pulse and drive power allows to obtain a set of target seeds referenced by their peak implosion velocities and initial aspect ratio (A = 3 and A = 5). Self-ignition is achieved with higher implosion velocity for A = 5-design than for A = 3-design. Then, rescaling is done to extend the set of designs to a huge amount of mass, peak kinetic energies and peak areal densities. Self-ignition kinetic energy threshold Ek is characterized by a dependance of Ek ? v? with ?-values which depart from self-ignition models. Nevertheless, self-ignition energy is seen lower for smaller initial aspect ratio. An analysis of Two-Plasmons Decay threshold and Rayleigh?Taylor instability e-folding is carried out and it is shown that two-plasmon decay threshold is always overpassed for all designs. The hydrodynamic stability analysis is performed by embedded models to deal with linear and non-linear regime. It is found that the A = 5-designs are always at the limit of disruption of the shell.

Evaluation of polymorphisms in predicted target sites for micro RNAs differentially expressed in endometriosis

Previous microarray analyses identified 22 microRNAs (miRNAs) differentially expressed in paired ectopic and eutopic endometrium of women with and without endometriosis. To investigate further the role of these miRNAs in women with endometriosis, we conducted an association study aiming to explore the relationship between endometriosis risk and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in miRNA target sites for these differentially expressed miRNAs. A panel of 102 SNPs in the predicted miRNA binding sites were evaluated for an endometriosis association study and an ingenuity pathway analysis was performed. Fourteen rare variants were identified in this study. We found SNP rs14647 in the Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome candidate gene1 (WHSC1) 3'UTR (untranslated region) was associated with endometriosis-related infertility presenting an odds ratio of 12.2 (95% confidence interval = 2.4-60.7, P = 9.03 x 10(-5)). SNP haplotype AGG in the solute carrier family 22, member 23 (SLC22A23) 3'UTR was associated with endometriosis-related infertility and more severe disease. With the individual genotyping data, ingenuity pathways analysis identified the tumour necrosis factor and cyclin-dependant kinase inhibitor as major factors in the molecular pathways. Significant associations between WHSC1 alleles and endometriosis-related infertility and SLC22A23 haplotypes and the disease severe stage were identified. These findings may help focus future research on subphenotypes of this disease. Replication studies in independent large sample sets to confirm and characterize the involvement of the gene variation in the pathogenesis of endometriosis are needed.

Target reliability based design optimization of anchored cantilever sheet pile walls

In this study, the stability of anchored cantilever sheet pile wall in sandy soils is investigated using reliability analysis. Targeted stability is formulated as an optimization problem in the framework of an inverse first order reliability method. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of parameters influencing the stability of sheet pile wall. Backfill soil properties, soil - steel pile interface friction angle, depth of the water table from the top of the sheet pile wall, total depth of embedment below the dredge line, yield strength of steel, section modulus of steel sheet pile, and anchor pull are all treated as random variables. The sheet pile wall system is modeled as a series of failure mode combination. Penetration depth, anchor pull, and section modulus are calculated for various target component and system reliability indices based on three limit states. These are: rotational failure about the position of the anchor rod, expressed in terms of moment ratio; sliding failure mode, expressed in terms of force ratio; and flexural failure of the steel sheet pile wall, expressed in terms of the section modulus ratio. An attempt is made to propose reliability based design charts considering the failure criteria as well as the variability in the parameters. The results of the study are compared with studies in the literature.

Capturability of Augmented Pure Proportional Navigation Guidance Against Time-Varying Target Maneuvers

This paper proposes a variation of the pure proportional navigation guidance law, called augmented pure proportional navigation, to account for target maneuvers, in a realistic nonlinear engagement geometry, and presents its capturability analysis. These results are in contrast to most work in the literature on augmented proportional navigation laws that consider a linearized geometry imposed upon the true proportional navigation guidance law. Because pure proportional navigation guidance law is closer to a realistic implementation of proportional navigation than true proportional navigation law, and any engagement process is predominantly nonlinear, the results obtained in this paper are more realistic than any available in the literature. Sufficient conditions on speed ratio, navigation gain, and augmentation parameter for capturability, and boundedness of lateral acceleration, against targets executing piecewise continuous maneuvers with time, are obtained. Further, based on a priori knowledge of the maximum maneuver capability of the target, a significant simplification of the guidance law is proposed in this paper. The proposed guidance law is also shown to require a shorter time of interception than standard pure proportional navigation and augmented proportional navigation. To remove chattering in the interceptor maneuver at the end phase of the engagement, a hybrid guidance law using augmented pure proportional navigation and pure proportional navigation is also proposed. Finally, the guaranteed capture zones of standard and augmented pure proportional navigation guidance laws against maneuvering targets are analyzed and compared in the normalized relative velocity space. It is shown that the guaranteed capture zone expands significantly when augmented pure proportional navigation is used instead of pure proportional navigation. Simulation results are given to support the theoretical findings.

Gipuzkoako udalen finantza kaudimenaren rankinga ratio aipagarrienen analisiaren arabera

[EU]Lan honen helburu nagusia,Gipuzkoako udalen finantza kaudimena aztertzeaz gain, beraien arteko konparaketa bat egin ahal izatea zen. Beste modu batera esanda,egoera hobeagoan dauden udalak nortzuk diren identifikatu ahal izatea. Hasi aurretik bagenekien, ordea, udal baten finantza kaudimena ez dagoela faktore bat edo biren arabera soilik, eta gauza asko subjektiboak direla ere bai. Gainera, eragina duten baldintza guztiak kontuan hartzea ere zaila da. Kasu honetan, 9-10 adierazle aukeratu dira, ondoren udal bakoitzak besteekin konparatuz adierazle horretan lortutako zenbatekoa 1etik 10erako puntuazio batekin baloratu da, eta azkenik, udaletxe guztien ranking bat osatu da. Ondorengo lerroetan ikus daiteke ranking honen testuingurua,erabilitako metodologia eta egindako kalkuluen ondorio nagusiak ere.

Image Ratio Features for Facial Expression Recognition Application

Video-based facial expression recognition is a challenging problem in computer vision and human-computer interaction. To target this problem, texture features have been extracted and widely used, because they can capture image intensity changes raised by skin deformation. However, existing texture features encounter problems with albedo and lighting variations. To solve both problems, we propose a new texture feature called image ratio features. Compared with previously proposed texture features, e. g., high gradient component features, image ratio features are more robust to albedo and lighting variations. In addition, to further improve facial expression recognition accuracy based on image ratio features, we combine image ratio features with facial animation parameters (FAPs), which describe the geometric motions of facial feature points. The performance evaluation is based on the Carnegie Mellon University Cohn-Kanade database, our own database, and the Japanese Female Facial Expression database. Experimental results show that the proposed image ratio feature is more robust to albedo and lighting variations, and the combination of image ratio features and FAPs outperforms each feature alone. In addition, we study asymmetric facial expressions based on our own facial expression database and demonstrate the superior performance of our combined expression recognition system.

Conventional 3D staging PET/CT in CT simulation for lung cancer: impact of rigid and deformable target volume alignments for radiotherapy treatment planning

Objective: Positron emission tomography (PET)/CT scans can improve target definition in radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). As staging PET/CT scans are increasingly available, we evaluated different methods for co-registration of staging PET/CT data to radiotherapy simulation (RTP) scans.

Methods: 10 patients underwent staging PET/CT followed by RTP PET/CT. On both scans, gross tumour volumes (GTVs) were delineated using CT (GTVCT) and PET display settings. Four PET-based contours (manual delineation, two threshold methods and a source-to-background ratio method) were delineated. The CT component of the staging scan was co-registered using both rigid and deformable techniques to the CT component of RTP PET/CT. Subsequently rigid registration and deformation warps were used to transfer PET and CT contours from the staging scan to the RTP scan. Dice’s similarity coefficient (DSC) was used to assess the registration accuracy of staging-based GTVs following both registration methods with the GTVs delineated on the RTP PET/CT scan.

Results: When the GTVCT delineated on the staging scan after both rigid registration and deformation was compared with the GTVCT on the RTP scan, a significant improvement in overlap (registration) using deformation was observed (mean DSC 0.66 for rigid registration and 0.82 for deformable registration, p50.008). A similar comparison for PET contours revealed no significant improvement in overlap with the use of deformable registration.

Conclusions: No consistent improvements in similarity measures were observed when deformable registration was used for transferring PET-based contours from a staging PET/CT. This suggests that currently the use of rigid registration remains the most appropriate method for RTP in NSCLC.

Defining Target Volumes for Stereotactic Ablative Radiotherapy of Early-stage Lung Tumours:A Comparison of Three-dimensional F-fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography and Four-dimensional Computed Tomography

Aims: High local control rates are achieved in stage I lung cancer using stereotactic ablative radiotherapy. Target delineation is commonly based on four-dimensional computed tomography (CT) scans. Target volumes defined by positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) are compared with those defined by four-dimensional CT and conventional ('three-dimensional') F-fluorodeoxyglucose (F-FDG) PET/CT. Materials and methods: For 16 stage I non-small cell lung cancer tumours, six approaches for deriving PET target volumes were evaluated: manual contouring, standardised uptake value (SUV) absolute threshold of 2.5, 35% of maximum SUV (35%SUV), 41% of SUV (41%SUV) and two different source to background ratio techniques (SBR-1 and SBR-2). PET-derived target volumes were compared with the internal target volume (ITV) from the modified maximum intensity projection (MIP ITV). Volumetric and positional correlation was assessed using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). Results: PET-based target volumes did not correspond to four-dimensional CT-based target volumes. The mean DSC relative to MIP ITV were: PET manual = 0.64, SUV2.5 = 0.64, 35%SUV = 0.63, 41%SUV = 0.57. SBR-1 = 0.52, SBR-2 = 0.49. PET-based target volumes were smaller than corresponding MIP ITVs. Conclusions: Conventional three-dimensional F-FDG PET-derived target volumes for lung stereotactic ablative radiotherapy did not correspond well with those derived from four-dimensional CT, including those in routine clinical use (MIP ITV). Caution is required in using three-dimensional PET for motion encompassing target volume delineation. © 2012 The Royal College of Radiologists.

Defining target volumes for stereotactic ablative radiotherapy of early-stage lung tumours: a comparison of three-dimensional 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography and four-dimensional computed tomography.:PETCT versus 4DCT for SABR in Early Stage NSCLC

AIMS: High local control rates are achieved in stage I lung cancer using
stereotactic ablative radiotherapy. Target delineation is commonly based on
four-dimensional computed tomography (CT) scans. Target volumes defined by
positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) are compared with those defined by four-dimensional CT and conventional ('three-dimensional')
(18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose ((18)F-FDG) PET/CT.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: For 16 stage I non-small cell lung cancer tumours, six
approaches for deriving PET target volumes were evaluated: manual contouring,
standardised uptake value (SUV) absolute threshold of 2.5, 35% of maximum SUV
(35%SUV(MAX)), 41% of SUV(MAX) (41%SUV(MAX)) and two different source to
background ratio techniques (SBR-1 and SBR-2). PET-derived target volumes were compared with the internal target volume (ITV) from the modified maximum
intensity projection (MIP(MOD) ITV). Volumetric and positional correlation was
assessed using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC).

RESULTS: PET-based target volumes did not correspond to four-dimensional CT-based target volumes. The mean DSC relative to MIP(MOD) ITV were: PET manual = 0.64, SUV2.5 = 0.64, 35%SUV(MAX) = 0.63, 41%SUV(MAX) = 0.57. SBR-1 = 0.52, SBR-2 =0.49. PET-based target volumes were smaller than corresponding MIP ITVs.

CONCLUSIONS: Conventional three-dimensional (18)F-FDG PET-derived target volumes for lung stereotactic ablative radiotherapy did not correspond well with those derived from four-dimensional CT, including those in routine clinical use
(MIP(MOD) ITV). Caution is required in using three-dimensional PET for motion
encompassing target volume delineation.

Simulative Risikoanalyse von Biomethanprojekten

Im Zuge der Novellierung der Gasnetzzugangsverordnung sowie des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes entwickelte sich die Einspeisung von Biomethan in das Erdgasnetz als alternative Investitionsmöglichkeit der Erneuerbare-Energien-Branche. Als problematisch erweist sich dabei die Identifikation und Strukturierung einzelner Risikofaktoren zu einem Risikobereich, sowie die anschließende Quantifizierung dieser Risikofaktoren innerhalb eines Risikoportfolios. Darüber hinaus besteht die Schwierigkeit, diese Risikofaktoren in einem cashflowbasierten und den Ansprüchen der Investoren gewachsenem Risikomodell abzubilden. Zusätzlich müssen dabei Wechselwirkungen zwischen einzelnen Risikofaktoren berücksichtigt werden. Aus diesem Grund verfolgt die Dissertation das Ziel, die Risikosituation eines Biomethanprojektes anhand aggregierter und isolierter Risikosimulationen zu analysieren. Im Rahmen einer Diskussion werden Strategien und Instrumente zur Risikosteuerung angesprochen sowie die Implementierungsfähigkeit des Risikomodells in das Risikomanagementsystem von Investoren. Die Risikomaße zur Beschreibung der Risikoauswirkung betrachten die Shortfälle einer Verteilung. Dabei beziehen sich diese auf die geplanten Ausschüttungen sowie interne Verzinsungsansprüche der Investoren und die von Kreditinstituten geforderte minimale Schuldendienstdeckungsrate. Im Hinblick auf die Risikotragfähigkeit werden liquiditätsorientierte Kennzahlen hinzugezogen. Investoren interessieren sich vor dem Hintergrund einer gezielten Risikosteuerung hauptsächlich für den gefahrvollsten Risikobereich und innerhalb dessen für den Risikofaktor, der die größten Risikoauswirkungen hervorruft. Zudem spielt der Zeitpunkt maximaler Risikoauswirkung eine große Rolle. Als Kernaussage dieser Arbeit wird festgestellt, dass in den meisten Fällen die Aussagefähigkeit aggregierter Risikosimulationen durch Überlagerungseffekte negativ beeinträchtigt wird. Erst durch isoliert durchgeführte Risikoanalysen können diese Effekte eliminiert werden. Besonders auffällig gestalten sich dabei die Ergebnisse der isoliert durchgeführten Risikoanalyse des Risikobereichs »Politik«. So verursacht dieser im Vergleich zu den übrigen Risikobereichen, wie »Infrastruktur«, »Rohstoffe«, »Absatzmarkt« und »Finanzmarkt«, die geringsten Wahrscheinlichkeiten avisierte Planwerte der Investoren zu unterschreiten. Kommt es jedoch zu einer solchen Planwert-Unterschreitung, nehmen die damit verbundenen Risikoauswirkungen eine überraschende Position im Risikoranking der Investoren ein. Hinsichtlich der Aussagefähigkeit des Risikomodells wird deutlich, dass spezifische Risikosichtweisen der Investoren ausschlaggebend dafür sind, welche Strategien und Instrumente zur Risikosenkung umgesetzt werden. Darüber hinaus wird festgestellt, dass die Grenzen des Risikomodells in der Validität der Expertenmeinungen und dem Auffinden einer Optimallösung zu suchen sind.

Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth

Research that seeks to estimate the effects of fiscal policies on economic growth has ignored the role of public debt in this relationship. This study proposes a theoretical model of endogenous growth, which demonstrates that the level of the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio should negatively impact the effect of fiscal policy on growth. This occurs because government indebtedness extracts part of the savings of the young to pay interest on the debts of the older generation, who are no longer saving. Therefore, the payment of debt interest assumes an allocation exchange role between generations that is similar to a pay-as-you-go pension system, which results in changes in the savings rate of the economy. The major conclusions of the theoretical model were tested using an econometric model to provide evidence for the validity of this conclusion. Our empirical analysis controls for timeinvariant, country-specific heterogeneity in the growth rates. We also address endogeneity issues and allow for heterogeneity across countries in the model parameters and for cross-sectional dependence.

Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead

The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyse the domestic public debt management experience in Brazil, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefiy reviewing the recent domestic public debt history, we decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt during 1995-2000, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main culprits are the extremely high interest payments-which, unti11998, were caused by the weak fiscal stance and the quasi-fixed exchange-rate regime; and since 1999, by the impact ofthe currency depreciation On the dollar-indexed and the externai debt-, and the accumulation of assets of doubtful value, much of which may have to be written off in the future. Simulation exercises of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-GDP ratio from growing further. Given the need to quickly lengthen the debt maturity, our main policy advice is to foster, and rely more on, infiation-linked bonds.

Debt and default in a growth model

This paper presents a small open economy model with capital accumulation and without commitment to repay debt. The optimal debt contract specifies debt relief following bad shocks and debt increase following good shocks and brings first order benefits if the country's borrowing constraint is binding. Countries with less capital (with higher marginal productivity of capital) have a higher debt-GDP ratio, are more likely to default on uncontingent bonds, require higher debt relief after bad shocks and pay a higher spread over treasury. Debt relief prescribed by the optimal contract following the interest rate hikes of 1980-81 is more than half of the debt forgiveness obtained by the main Latin American countries through the Brady agreements.