How Effective are Unemployment Benefit Sanctions? Looking Beyond Unemployment Exit

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of benefit sanctions on post-unemployment outcomes such as post-unemployment employment stability and earnings. We use rich register data which allow us to distinguish between a warning that a benefit reduction may take place in the near future and the actual withdrawal of unemployment benefits. Adopting a multivariate mixed proportional hazard approach to address selectivity, we find that warnings do not affect subsequent employment stability but do reduce post-unemployment earnings. Actual benefit reductions lower the quality of post-unemployment jobs both in terms of job duration as well as in terms of earnings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Does the unemployment benefit institution affect the productivity of workers? evidence from a field experiment

We investigate whether and how the type of unemployment benefit institution affects productivity. We designed a field experiment to compare workers’ productivity under a welfare system, where the unemployed receive an unconditional monetary transfer, with their productivity under a workfare system, where the transfer is received conditional on the unemployed spending some time on ancillary activities. First, we find that having an unemployment benefit institution, regardless of whether it makes transfers conditional or unconditional, increases workers’ productivity. Second, we find that productivity is higher under Welfare than under Workfare. Becoming unemployed under Welfare comes at the psychological cost of a drop in self-esteem, presumably due to the shame or stigma associated with receiving an unconditional unemployment benefit. We document the empirical relevance of precisely this channel. The differences we observe in productivity suggest that this psychological cost acts as an extra nonmonetary incentive for workers under Welfare to put a higher effort in their work.

Unemployment insurance an analysis of optimal mechanisms under aggregate shocks

The purpose of this work is to provide a brief overview of the literature on the optimal design of unemployment insurance systems by analyzing some of the most influential articles published over the last three decades on the subject and extend the main results to a multiple aggregate shocks environment. The properties of optimal contracts are discussed in light of the key assumptions commonly made in theoretical publications on the area. Moreover, the implications of relaxing each of these hypothesis is reckoned as well. The analysis of models of only one unemployment spell starts from the seminal work of Shavell and Weiss (1979). In a simple and common setting, unemployment benefits policies, wage taxes and search effort assignments are covered. Further, the idea that the UI distortion of the relative price of leisure and consumption is the only explanation for the marginal incentives to search for a job is discussed, putting into question the reduction in labor supply caused by social insurance, usually interpreted as solely an evidence of a dynamic moral hazard caused by a substitution effect. In addition, the paper presents one characterization of optimal unemployment insurance contracts in environments in which workers experience multiple unemployment spells. Finally, an extension to multiple aggregate shocks environment is considered. The paper ends with a numerical analysis of the implications of i.i.d. shocks to the optimal unemployment insurance mechanism.

Essays on Unemployment Insurance

Can the potential availability of unemployment insurance (UI) affect the behavior of employed workers and the duration of their employment spells? After discussing few straightforward reasons why UI may affect employment duration, I apply a regression kink design (RKD) to address this question using linked employer-employee data from the Brazilian labor market. Exploiting the UI schedule, I find that potential benefit level significantly affects the duration of employment spells. This effect is local to low skilled workers and, surprisingly, indicates that a 1\% increase in unemployment benefits increases job duration by around 0.3\%. Such result is driven by the fact that higher UI decreases the probability of job quits, which are not covered by UI in Brazil. These estimates are robust to permutation tests and a number of falsification tests. I develop a reduced-form welfare formula to assess the economic relevance of this result. Based on that, I show that the positive effect on employment duration implies in a higher optimal benefit level. Moreover, the formula shows that the elasticity of employment duration impacts welfare just with the same weight as the well-known elasticity of unemployment duration to benefit level.

Benefits quality control state operations handbook.

"July 1, 1986."

Studies on Wage Differentials and Labour Market Transitions

This thesis consists of four studies. The first study examines wage differentials between women and men in the Finnish manufacturing sector. A matched employer-employee data set is used to decompose the overall gender wage gap into the contributions of sex differences in human capital, labour market segregation, and residual within-job wage differentials. The topic of the second study is the relationship between the extended unemployment benefits and labour market transitions of older workers. The analysis exploits a quasi-experimental setting caused by a change in the law that raised the eligibility age of workers benefiting from extended benefits. Roughly half of the unemployed workers with extended benefits are estimated to be effectively withdrawn from labour market search. The risk of unemployment declined and the re-employment probability increased among the age groups directly affected by the reform. The third study provides an empirical analysis of a structural equilibrium search model. Estimation results from various model specifications are compared and discussed. The last study is a methodological study where the difficulties of interpreting the results of competing risks hazard models are discussed and a solution for a particular class of models is proposed. It is argued that a common practice of reporting the results of qualitative response models in terms of marginal effects is also useful in the context of competing risks duration models.

Do Reservation Wages Really Decline? Some International Evidence on the Determinants of Reservation Wages

Using cross-country data, we investigate the determinants of reservation wages and their course over the jobless spell. Higher unemployment benefits lead to higher reservation wages. Further, again consistent with the basic search model, repeated observations on the same individual provide scant evidence of declining reservation wages.

Seguros de desempleo: revisión de literatura y propuesta para Colombia

En este artículo se estudia la posibilidad de introducir seguros de desempleo en Colombia. En una primera parte, se propone una revisión de literatura de los seguros de desempleo en la cual se exponen las ventajas generadas por una cobertura contra este riesgo, así como sus inconvenientes. En una segunda parte, se estudian varios escenarios para introducir seguros de desempleo en Colombia. Después de haber presentado el contexto del mercado laboral y de las normas que lo vigilan, se proponen varios diseños que abordan la gestión y la administración del riesgo de desempleo en Colombia. Igualmente se presentan algunas consideraciones teóricas para la valoración del costo del aseguramiento, las cuales incorporan los efectos del riesgo moral sobre la duración y la incidencia del desempleo.

Risks, costs and labour markets: explaining cross-national patterns of far right party success in European Parliament elections

What is the impact of the economy on cross national variation in far right-wing party support? This paper tests several hypotheses from existing literature on the results of the last three EP elections in all EU member states. We conceptualise the economy affects support because unemployment heightens the risks and costs that the population faces, but this is crucially mediated by labour market institutions. Findings from multiple regression analyses indicate that unemployment, real GDP growth, debt and deficits have no statistically significant effect on far right-wing party support at the national level. By contrast, labour markets influence costs and risks: where unemployment benefits and dismissal regulations are high, unemployment has no effect, but where either one of them is low, unemployment leads to higher far right-wing party support. This explains why unemployment has not led to far right-wing party support in some European countries that experienced the 2008 Eurozone crisis.

Politiche attive del lavoro e ammortizzatori sociali in deroga: misure difensive o di promozione delle capacità?

Il tema generale del dottorato di ricerca è l'analisi delle politiche di attivazione in Italia durante la crisi economica. La combinazione di politiche attive e passive del lavoro viene interpretata ricorrendo al quadro teorico proposto da Amartya Sen e basato sul concetto di capability. Abbiamo considerato le misure nazionali e regionali nel quadro delle linee guida europee e analizzato le tendenze verso l'empowerment dei beneficiari di politiche del lavoro attraverso il concetto di capability proposto da Sen. La ricerca empirica ha utilizzato diversi strumenti per la raccolta dei dati: focus group, un questionario inviato ad un campione di 1.200 lavoratori, e interviste.

Stochastic foundations of dynamic trade and labor market models

This dissertation consists of three self-contained papers that are related to two main topics. In particular, the first and third studies focus on labor market modeling, whereas the second essay presents a dynamic international trade setup.rnrnIn Chapter "Expenses on Labor Market Reforms during Transitional Dynamics", we investigate the arising costs of a potential labor market reform from a government point of view. To analyze various effects of unemployment benefits system changes, this chapter develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous employed and unemployed workers.rn rnIn Chapter "Endogenous Markup Distributions", we study how markup distributions adjust when a closed economy opens up. In order to perform this analysis, we first present a closed-economy general-equilibrium industry dynamics model, where firms enter and exit markets, and then extend our analysis to the open-economy case.rn rnIn Chapter "Unemployment in the OECD - Pure Chance or Institutions?", we examine effects of aggregate shocks on the distribution of the unemployment rates in OECD member countries.rn rnIn all three chapters we model systems that behave randomly and operate on stochastic processes. We therefore exploit stochastic calculus that establishes clear methodological links between the chapters.

Poverty in Slovenia: A Conseqence of Economic Transition

Slovenia is considered to be one of the most successful Central and Eastern European countries undergoing the process of transition. It has a high GDP per capita (the highest in the Visegrad group) amounting to about 7200 US dollars (at the exchange rates pertaining during Ms. Stropnik's research). In 1994, a low rate of inflation, a low level of public debt and almost balanced public finances, were all positive elements. However, there is a darker side, for instance the dramatic increase in unemployment and (somewhat less dramatic) fall in production during the transition period. This analysis aimed to provide insights into what is actually happening at the household level, since households are the ultimate bearers of macroeconomic and social change. The final output totalled 166 pages in English and Slovenian, available also on disc. The income concept used by Ms. Stropnik is that of the disposable (monetary) household income, i.e. the cash income of all household members - including social security transfers and family benefits, and the net sum of taxes and social security contributions - plus the equivalent of domestic production, used in the household. Non-monetary income sources, such as household own production, benefits in kind, subsidies for goods and services, and fringe benefits, were not taken into account. The concept of relative and objective poverty was followed. Poverty means having less than others in society, it is a state of relative deprivation. Objective aspects of the situation, e.g. command over resources (i.e. the household income) and the relative position of the household in the income distribution, determine who is poor and who is not. Changes in household composition - an increase in the number of pensioners, unemployed and self-employed, concomitant with a large decrease in the number of employees - obviously played a part in the changing structure of household income sources during this period. The overall decrease in the share of wages and salaries from primary employment in 1993 is to be observed in all income deciles. On the other hand, the importance of salaries gained from secondary employment has increased in all deciles. The lower seven deciles experienced a sharp rise in the share of social benefits in the period 1988-1993, mostly because of the increase in the number of persons entitled to claim unemployment benefits. In Slovenia, income inequality has increased considerably during the 1988-1993 period. To make matters worse, the large increase in income inequality occurred in a period of falling real incomes. In 1983 the bottom decile disposed of 3.8 percent and the top decile disposed of 23.4 percent of total monetary income in Slovenia, whereas by 1993 the same statistics revealed 3.1 percent and 18.9 percent respectively. Unemployment greatly increases the risk of living in poverty. In 1993, 35 per cent of all unemployed persons in Slovenia were living in the lowest income quintile. Ms. Stropnik found certain features that were specific to Slovenia and not shared by most countries in transition. For example, the relative income position of pensioners has improved. Retirement did not increase the risk of poverty in 1993 as much as it did in 1983 and 1988. Also, it appears that children have not been particularly hard-hit by the transition upheavals. The incidence of poverty amongst children has not increased in the period 1983-1993. Children were also fairly evenly distributed across income quintiles. In 1983, 11.8 percent of households with children aged 18 or less were poor. In 1993, this figure was 8.4 per cent. On the other hand, poor households with children were, in comparison with other households of the same type, poorer in 1993 than in 1983. Ms. Stropnik also analysed the impact of social transfers. Her conclusion was that the level of social transfers prevented them from being successful in alleviating poverty. Family policy transfers (child allowances, child tax allowances, subsidised child care) did, however, contribute to the lowering of income inequality between families with and without children, and amongst families with different numbers of children. Ms. Stropnik is determined that the results of her research be used in the creation of social policy aimed at helping the poor. She quotes Piachaud approvingly: "If the term 'poverty' carries with it the implication and moral imperative that something should be done about it, then the study of poverty is only ultimately justifiable if it influences individual and social attitudes and actions."

Regional Trade Agreements and domestic labour market regulation

This chapter discusses the relationship between labour market regulation and regional trade agreements from both a legal and an economic angle. We examine empirically whether regional trade liberalisation is associated with deterioration (“race to the bottom”) of domestic labour standards beyond those reflected in the 1998 ILO Declaration on the Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work. Using a panel of 90 developed and developing countries, covering the years from 1980 to 2005, we find that after the entry into force of a regional trade agreement (RTA), labour standards applying to employment protection and unemployment benefits are significantly weakened. We show that such a lowering of protection levels tends to occur in high income countries and that this effect mainly stems from RTAs among such countries rather than with low or middle income countries. Concern about competitive pressure to weaken domestic labour regulation is reflected in a variety of undertakings in RTAs not to administer labour laws with a view to improving one’s competitive position in trade or foreign direct investment (FDI). The above-mentioned empirical findings indicate that such provisions could potentially become relevant, and that this is more likely to be the case for high income members of RTAs. Our analysis, from a legal point of view, of relevant institutional and procedural mechanisms indicates however that enforceability of the relevant provisions is weak for most of the existing legal texts.

Wage bargaining, privatisation, ability to pay, and outside options:evidence from Hungary

This paper examines the determinants of short-term wage dynamics, using a sample of large Hungarian companies for the period of 1996-1999. We test the basic implications of an efficient contract model of bargaining between the incumbent employees and the managers, which we are unable to reject. In particular, there are structural differences between the ownership sectors consistent with our prior knowledge on relative bargaining strength and unionisation measures. Stronger bargaining position of workers leads to higher ability to pay elasticity of wages, and lower outside option elasticity. Our results indicate that while bargaining position of workers in domestic privatised firms may be weaker than in the state sector, the more robust difference relate to state sector workers versus the privatised firms with the majority foreign ownership. We examine several extensions. We augment the bargaining specification by controls related to workers' skills and find that the basic findings are robust to that. We take a closer look at the outside options of the workers. We find some interactive effects, where unemployment modify the impact of availability of rents on wages. We interpret our results as an indication that bargaining power of workers may be affected by changes in their outside options. We also experiment with one concise indicator of reservation wage which is closest to the theoretical model specification and combines sectoral wages, unemployment benefits and regional unemployment levels,. We found that measure performing well. Finally, we found that while responsiveness of wages towards ability to pay is higher in the state sector, variation in wage dynamics is lower. This may indicate some wage smoothing in the state sector, consistent with the preferences of employees.

Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.