The production of statistical data and information in the Caribbean: proposals for increasing efficiency in this sphere

Includes bibliography

Assessing efficiency of a transit oriented development (TOD) by comparative analysis

Transit oriented developments (TODs) are master planned communities constructed to reduce the dependence on the private car and promote the modes of transport such as public transport, walking and cycling, which are presumed by many transport professionals to be more sustainable. This paper tests this assumption that TOD is a more sustainable form of development than traditional development, with respect to travel demand, by conducting travel surveys for a case study TOD and comparing the travel characteristics of TOD residents with the travel characteristics of residents of Brisbane, Australia who live in non TOD suburbs. The results of a household comparison showed that the Kelvin Grove Urban Village (KGUV) households had slightly smaller household size, lower vehicle and bicycle ownership compared to Brisbane Statistical Division (BSD), Brisbane’s inner north and inner south suburbs. The comparison of average trip characteristics showed that on an average KGUV residents undertook fewer trips on the given travel day (2.6 trips/person) compared to BSD (3.1 trips/person), Brisbane Inner North Suburbs (BINS) (3.6 trips/person) and Brisbane Inner South Suburbs (BISS) (3.5 trips/person) residents. The mode share comparison indicated that KGUV residents used more public transport and made more walk-only trips in comparison to BSD, BINS and BISS residents. Overall, 72.4 percent of KGUV residents used a sustainable mode of transport for their travel on a typical weekday. On the other hand, only 17.4 percent, 22.2 percent and 24.4 percent residents of BSD, BINS and BISS used sustainable modes of transport for this travel. The results of trip length comparison showed that overall KGUV residents have smaller average trip lengths as compared to its counterparts. KGUV & BINS residents used car for travelling farther and used public transport for accessing destinations located closer to their homes. On the contrary, BSD and BISS residents exhibited an opposite trend. These results support the transportation claims of many transport professionals that TODs are more transport efficient and therefore more sustainable in this respect.

Estimating local stream fish assemblage attributes: Sampling effort and efficiency at two spatial scales

As part of a wider study to develop an ecosystem-health monitoring program for wadeable streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia, comparisons were made regarding the accuracy, precision and relative efficiency of single-pass backpack electrofishing and multiple-pass electrofishing plus supplementary seine netting to quantify fish assemblage attributes at two spatial scales (within discrete mesohabitat units and within stream reaches consisting of multiple mesohabitat units). The results demonstrate that multiple-pass electrofishing plus seine netting provide more accurate and precise estimates of fish species richness, assemblage composition and species relative abundances in comparison to single-pass electrofishing alone, and that intensive sampling of three mesohabitat units (equivalent to a riffle-run-pool sequence) is a more efficient sampling strategy to estimate reach-scale assemblage attributes than less intensive sampling over larger spatial scales. This intensive sampling protocol was sufficiently sensitive that relatively small differences in assemblage attributes (<20%) could be detected with a high statistical power (1-β > 0.95) and that relatively few stream reaches (<4) need be sampled to accurately estimate assemblage attributes close to the true population means. The merits and potential drawbacks of the intensive sampling strategy are discussed, and it is deemed to be suitable for a range of monitoring and bioassessment objectives.

Assessment on the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Both environmental economists and policy makers have shown a great deal of interest in the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency. In line with the modern resources available, however, no contribution is brought to the environmental economics field with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) application, which enables simulation from a distribution of a Markov chain and simulating from the chain until it approaches equilibrium. The probability density functions gained prominence with the advantages over classical statistical methods in its simultaneous inference and incorporation of any prior information on all model parameters. This paper concentrated on this point with the application of MCMC to the database of China, the largest developing country with rapid economic growth and serious environmental pollution in recent years. The variables cover the economic output and pollution abatement cost from the year 1992 to 2003. We test the causal direction between pollution abatement cost and environmental efficiency with MCMC simulation. We found that the pollution abatement cost causes an increase in environmental efficiency through the algorithm application, which makes it conceivable that the environmental policy makers should make more substantial measures to reduce pollution in the near future.

Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

Molecular Breeding for Complex Adaptive Traits: How Integrating Crop Ecophysiology and Modelling Can Enhance Efficiency

Progress in crop improvement is limited by the ability to identify favourable combinations of genotypes (G) and management practices (M) in relevant target environments (E) given the resources available to search among the myriad of possible combinations. To underpin yield advance we require prediction of phenotype based on genotype. In plant breeding, traditional phenotypic selection methods have involved measuring phenotypic performance of large segregating populations in multi-environment trials and applying rigorous statistical procedures based on quantitative genetic theory to identify superior individuals. Recent developments in the ability to inexpensively and densely map/sequence genomes have facilitated a shift from the level of the individual (genotype) to the level of the genomic region. Molecular breeding strategies using genome wide prediction and genomic selection approaches have developed rapidly. However, their applicability to complex traits remains constrained by gene-gene and gene-environment interactions, which restrict the predictive power of associations of genomic regions with phenotypic responses. Here it is argued that crop ecophysiology and functional whole plant modelling can provide an effective link between molecular and organism scales and enhance molecular breeding by adding value to genetic prediction approaches. A physiological framework that facilitates dissection and modelling of complex traits can inform phenotyping methods for marker/gene detection and underpin prediction of likely phenotypic consequences of trait and genetic variation in target environments. This approach holds considerable promise for more effectively linking genotype to phenotype for complex adaptive traits. Specific examples focused on drought adaptation are presented to highlight the concepts.

FIELD EMISSION EFFICIENCY OF A CARBON NANOTUBE ARRAY UNDER PARASITIC NONLINEARITIES

Carbon Nanotubes (CNTs) grown on substrates are potential electron sources in field emission applications. Several studies have reported the use of CNTs in field emission devices, including field emission displays, X-ray tube, electron microscopes, cathode-ray lamps, etc. Also, in recent years, conventional cold field emission cathodes have been realized in micro-fabricated arrays for medical X-ray imaging. CNTbased field emission cathode devices have potential applications in a variety of industrial and medical applications, including cancer treatment. Field emission performance of a single isolated CNT is found to be remarkable, but the situation becomes complex when an array of CNTs is used. At the same time, use of arrays of CNTs is practical and economical. Indeed, such arrays on cathode substrates can be grown easily and their collective dynamics can be utilized in a statistical sense such that the average emission intensity is high enough and the collective dynamics lead to longer emission life. The authors in their previous publications had proposed a novel approach to obtain stabilized field emission current from a stacked CNT array of pointed height distribution. A mesoscopic modeling technique was employed, which took into account electro-mechanical forces in the CNTs, as well as transport of conduction electron coupled with electron phonon induced heat generation from the CNT tips. The reported analysis of pointed arrangements of the array showed that the current density distribution was greatly localized in the middle of the array, the scatter due to electrodynamic force field was minimized, and the temperature transients were much smaller compared to those in an array with random height distribution. In the present paper we develop a method to compute the emission efficiency of the CNT array in terms of the amount of electrons hitting the anode surface using trajectory calculations. Effects of secondary electron emission and parasitic capacitive nonlinearity on the current-voltage signals are accounted. Field emission efficiency of a stacked CNT array with various pointed height distributions are compared to that of arrays with random and uniform height distributions. Effect of this parasitic nonlinearity on the emission switch-on voltage is estimated by model based simulation and Monte Carlo method.

Photocurrent spectroscopic studies of diketopyrrolopyrrole-based statistical copolymers

Diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) containing copolymers have gained a lot of interest in organic optoelectronics with great potential in organic photovoltaics. In this work, DPP based statistical copolymers, with slightly different bandgap energies and a varying fraction of donor-acceptor ratio are investigated using monochromatic photocurrent spectroscopy and Fourier-transform photocurrent spectroscopy (FTPS). The statistical copolymer with a lower DPP fraction, when blended with a fullerene derivative, shows the signature of an inter charge transfer complex state in photocurrent spectroscopy. Furthermore, the absorption spectrum of the blended sample with a lower DPP fraction is seen to change as a function of an external bias, qualitatively similar to the quantum confined Stark effect, from where we estimate the exciton binding energy. The statistical copolymer with a higher DPP fraction shows no signal of the inter charge transfer states and yields a higher external quantum efficiency in a photovoltaic structure. In order to gain insight into the origin of the observed charge transfer transitions, we present theoretical studies using density-functional theory and time-dependent density-functional theory for the two pristine DPP based statistical monomers.

Photocurrent spectroscopic studies of diketopyrrolopyrrole-based statistical copolymers

Diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) containing copolymers have gained a lot of interest in organic optoelectronics with great potential in organic photovoltaics. In this work, DPP based statistical copolymers, with slightly different bandgap energies and a varying fraction of donor-acceptor ratio are investigated using monochromatic photocurrent spectroscopy and Fourier-transform photocurrent spectroscopy (FTPS). The statistical copolymer with a lower DPP fraction, when blended with a fullerene derivative, shows the signature of an inter charge transfer complex state in photocurrent spectroscopy. Furthermore, the absorption spectrum of the blended sample with a lower DPP fraction is seen to change as a function of an external bias, qualitatively similar to the quantum confined Stark effect, from where we estimate the exciton binding energy. The statistical copolymer with a higher DPP fraction shows no signal of the inter charge transfer states and yields a higher external quantum efficiency in a photovoltaic structure. In order to gain insight into the origin of the observed charge transfer transitions, we present theoretical studies using density-functional theory and time-dependent density-functional theory for the two pristine DPP based statistical monomers.

Molecular/Cluster Statistical Thermodynamics Methods To Simulate Quasi-Static Deformations At Finite Temperature

The rapid evolution of nanotechnology appeals for the understanding of global response of nanoscale systems based on atomic interactions, hence necessitates novel, sophisticated, and physically based approaches to bridge the gaps between various length and time scales. In this paper, we propose a group of statistical thermodynamics methods for the simulations of nanoscale systems under quasi-static loading at finite temperature, that is, molecular statistical thermodynamics (MST) method, cluster statistical thermodynamics (CST) method, and the hybrid molecular/cluster statistical thermodynamics (HMCST) method. These methods, by treating atoms as oscillators and particles simultaneously, as well as clusters, comprise different spatial and temporal scales in a unified framework. One appealing feature of these methods is their "seamlessness" or consistency in the same underlying atomistic model in all regions consisting of atoms and clusters, and hence can avoid the ghost force in the simulation. On the other hand, compared with conventional MD simulations, their high computational efficiency appears very attractive, as manifested by the simulations of uniaxial compression and nanoindenation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Investigations on the number of trials required for statistical comparison of fishing gears

The number of fishing trials required for comparing the efficiency of fishing gears was investigated. A unique solution to this problem did not appear to exist because of the heterogeneity of the experimental material. Sequential experimentation and analysis have been found to be a practical approach to this problem. By this, the experiment can be terminated almost after 35 days fishing for catches with standard error per unit as per cent of the mean about 30% or less (after logarithmic transformation). For data with mean catches less than 1.5 kg analysis of variance approach does not appear to be meaningful.

An ngram-based statistical machine translation decoder

In this paper we describe MARIE, an Ngram-based statistical machine translation decoder. It is implemented using a beam search strategy, with distortion (or reordering) capabilities. The underlying translation model is based on an Ngram approach, extended to introduce reordering at the phrase level. The search graph structure is designed to perform very accurate comparisons, what allows for a high level of pruning, improving the decoder efficiency. We report several techniques for efficiently prune out the search space. The combinatory explosion of the search space derived from the search graph structure is reduced by limiting the number of reorderings a given translation is allowed to perform, and also the maximum distance a word (or a phrase) is allowed to be reordered. We finally report translation accuracy results on three different translation tasks.

Efficiency Dynamics on Two Coupled Small-World Networks

We investigate the effect of clusters in complex networks on efficiency dynamics by studying a simple efficiency model in two coupled small-world networks. It is shown that the critical network randomness corresponding to transition from a stagnant phase to a growing one decreases to zero as the connection strength of clusters increases. It is also shown for fixed randomness that the state of clusters transits from a stagnant phase to a growing one as the connection strength of clusters increases. This work can be useful for understanding the critical transition appearing in many dynamic processes on the cluster networks.