I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Design strategies for ultra-high efficiency photovoltaics

While concentrator photovoltaic cells have shown significant improvements in efficiency in the past ten years, once these cells are integrated into concentrating optics, connected to a power conditioning system and deployed in the field, the overall module efficiency drops to only 34 to 36%. This efficiency is impressive compared to conventional flat plate modules, but it is far short of the theoretical limits for solar energy conversion. Designing a system capable of achieving ultra high efficiency of 50% or greater cannot be achieved by refinement and iteration of current design approaches.

This thesis takes a systems approach to designing a photovoltaic system capable of 50% efficient performance using conventional diode-based solar cells. The effort began with an exploration of the limiting efficiency of spectrum splitting ensembles with 2 to 20 sub cells in different electrical configurations. Incorporating realistic non-ideal performance with the computationally simple detailed balance approach resulted in practical limits that are useful to identify specific cell performance requirements. This effort quantified the relative benefit of additional cells and concentration for system efficiency, which will help in designing practical optical systems.

Efforts to improve the quality of the solar cells themselves focused on the development of tunable lattice constant epitaxial templates. Initially intended to enable lattice matched multijunction solar cells, these templates would enable increased flexibility in band gap selection for spectrum splitting ensembles and enhanced radiative quality relative to metamorphic growth. The III-V material family is commonly used for multijunction solar cells both for its high radiative quality and for the ease of integrating multiple band gaps into one monolithic growth. The band gap flexibility is limited by the lattice constant of available growth templates. The virtual substrate consists of a thin III-V film with the desired lattice constant. The film is grown strained on an available wafer substrate, but the thickness is below the dislocation nucleation threshold. By removing the film from the growth substrate, allowing the strain to relax elastically, and bonding it to a supportive handle, a template with the desired lattice constant is formed. Experimental efforts towards this structure and initial proof of concept are presented.

Cells with high radiative quality present the opportunity to recover a large amount of their radiative losses if they are incorporated in an ensemble that couples emission from one cell to another. This effect is well known, but has been explored previously in the context of sub cells that independently operate at their maximum power point. This analysis explicitly accounts for the system interaction and identifies ways to enhance overall performance by operating some cells in an ensemble at voltages that reduce the power converted in the individual cell. Series connected multijunctions, which by their nature facilitate strong optical coupling between sub-cells, are reoptimized with substantial performance benefit.

Photovoltaic efficiency is usually measured relative to a standard incident spectrum to allow comparison between systems. Deployed in the field systems may differ in energy production due to sensitivity to changes in the spectrum. The series connection constraint in particular causes system efficiency to decrease as the incident spectrum deviates from the standard spectral composition. This thesis performs a case study comparing performance of systems over a year at a particular location to identify the energy production penalty caused by series connection relative to independent electrical connection.

Methods for melting temperature calculation

Melting temperature calculation has important applications in the theoretical study of phase diagrams and computational materials screenings. In this thesis, we present two new methods, i.e., the improved Widom's particle insertion method and the small-cell coexistence method, which we developed in order to capture melting temperatures both accurately and quickly.

We propose a scheme that drastically improves the efficiency of Widom's particle insertion method by efficiently sampling cavities while calculating the integrals providing the chemical potentials of a physical system. This idea enables us to calculate chemical potentials of liquids directly from first-principles without the help of any reference system, which is necessary in the commonly used thermodynamic integration method. As an example, we apply our scheme, combined with the density functional formalism, to the calculation of the chemical potential of liquid copper. The calculated chemical potential is further used to locate the melting temperature. The calculated results closely agree with experiments.

We propose the small-cell coexistence method based on the statistical analysis of small-size coexistence MD simulations. It eliminates the risk of a metastable superheated solid in the fast-heating method, while also significantly reducing the computer cost relative to the traditional large-scale coexistence method. Using empirical potentials, we validate the method and systematically study the finite-size effect on the calculated melting points. The method converges to the exact result in the limit of a large system size. An accuracy within 100 K in melting temperature is usually achieved when the simulation contains more than 100 atoms. DFT examples of Tantalum, high-pressure Sodium, and ionic material NaCl are shown to demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of the method in its practical applications. The method serves as a promising approach for large-scale automated material screening in which the melting temperature is a design criterion.

We present in detail two examples of refractory materials. First, we demonstrate how key material properties that provide guidance in the design of refractory materials can be accurately determined via ab initio thermodynamic calculations in conjunction with experimental techniques based on synchrotron X-ray diffraction and thermal analysis under laser-heated aerodynamic levitation. The properties considered include melting point, heat of fusion, heat capacity, thermal expansion coefficients, thermal stability, and sublattice disordering, as illustrated in a motivating example of lanthanum zirconate (La₂Zr₂O₇). The close agreement with experiment in the known but structurally complex compound La₂Zr₂O₇ provides good indication that the computation methods described can be used within a computational screening framework to identify novel refractory materials. Second, we report an extensive investigation into the melting temperatures of the Hf-C and Hf-Ta-C systems using ab initio calculations. With melting points above 4000 K, hafnium carbide (HfC) and tantalum carbide (TaC) are among the most refractory binary compounds known to date. Their mixture, with a general formula Ta_xHf_1-xC_y, is known to have a melting point of 4215 K at the composition Ta₄HfC₅, which has long been considered as the highest melting temperature for any solid. Very few measurements of melting point in tantalum and hafnium carbides have been documented, because of the obvious experimental difficulties at extreme temperatures. The investigation lets us identify three major chemical factors that contribute to the high melting temperatures. Based on these three factors, we propose and explore a new class of materials, which, according to our ab initio calculations, may possess even higher melting temperatures than Ta-Hf-C. This example also demonstrates the feasibility of materials screening and discovery via ab initio calculations for the optimization of "higher-level" properties whose determination requires extensive sampling of atomic configuration space.

Efficiency and inefficiency in the operation of the Bureau of Power and Light of Los Angeles, California

In work of this nature it is advisable to state definitely the problem attempted in order that the reader may have a clear understanding of the object of the work undertaken. The problem involved is to determine the efficiency and inefficiency in the operation of the Bureau of Power and Light of Los Angeles, California, as it exists at the present time. This will be more on the order of a government investigation than a purely engineering thesis. An engineering thesis consists or reports based on experiments and tests, etc., while the present undertaking will consist of investigation of the facts concerning the organization, operation and conduct of the business of the Bureau of Power and Light. The facts presented were obtained from several sources: (1) the writer's knowledge of the business; (2) books written on municipal ownership; (3) reports published by the Bureau, and (4) personal interviews with men connected with the organization. I have endeavored to draw conclusions from the facts thus obtained, as to the present status of the Bureau of Power and Light.

Photonic and Device Design Principles for Ultrahigh-Efficiency (>50%), Spectrum-Splitting Photovoltaics

The sun has the potential to power the Earth's total energy needs, but electricity from solar power still constitutes an extremely small fraction of our power generation because of its high cost relative to traditional energy sources. Therefore, the cost of solar must be reduced to realize a more sustainable future. This can be achieved by significantly increasing the efficiency of modules that convert solar radiation to electricity. In this thesis, we consider several strategies to improve the device and photonic design of solar modules to achieve record, ultrahigh (> 50%) solar module efficiencies. First, we investigate the potential of a new passivation treatment, trioctylphosphine sulfide, to increase the performance of small GaAs solar cells for cheaper and more durable modules. We show that small cells (mm2), which currently have a significant efficiency decrease (~ 5%) compared to larger cells (cm2) because small cells have a higher fraction of recombination-active surface from the sidewalls, can achieve significantly higher efficiencies with effective passivation of the sidewalls. We experimentally validate the passivation qualities of treatment by trioctylphosphine sulfide (TOP:S) through four independent studies and show that this facile treatment can enable efficient small devices. Then, we discuss our efforts toward the design and prototyping of a spectrum-splitting module that employs optical elements to divide the incident spectrum into different color bands, which allows for higher efficiencies than traditional methods. We present a design, the polyhedral specular reflector, that has the potential for > 50% module efficiencies even with realistic losses from combined optics, cell, and electrical models. Prototyping efforts of one of these designs using glass concentrators yields an optical module whose combined spectrum-splitting and concentration should correspond to a record module efficiency of 42%. Finally, we consider how the manipulation of radiatively emitted photons from subcells in multijunction architectures can be used to achieve even higher efficiencies than previously thought, inspiring both optimization of incident and radiatively emitted photons for future high efficiency designs. In this thesis work, we explore novel device and photonic designs that represent a significant departure from current solar cell manufacturing techniques and ultimately show the potential for much higher solar cell efficiencies.

Paths Towards High Efficiency Silicon Photovoltaics

While photovoltaics hold much promise as a sustainable electricity source, continued cost reduction is necessary to continue the current growth in deployment. A promising path to continuing to reduce total system cost is by increasing device efficiency. This thesis explores several silicon-based photovoltaic technologies with the potential to reach high power conversion efficiencies. Silicon microwire arrays, formed by joining millions of micron diameter wires together, were developed as a low cost, low efficiency solar technology. The feasibility of transitioning this to a high efficiency technology was explored. In order to achieve high efficiency, high quality silicon material must be used. Lifetimes and diffusion lengths in these wires were measured and the action of various surface passivation treatments studied. While long lifetimes were not achieved, strong inversion at the silicon / hydrofluoric acid interface was measured, which is important for understanding a common measurement used in solar materials characterization.

Cryogenic deep reactive ion etching was then explored as a method for fabricating high quality wires and improved lifetimes were measured. As another way to reach high efficiency, growth of silicon-germanium alloy wires was explored as a substrate for a III-V on Si tandem device. Patterned arrays of wires with up to 12% germanium incorporation were grown. This alloy is more closely lattice matched to GaP than silicon and allows for improvements in III-V integration on silicon.

Heterojunctions of silicon are another promising path towards achieving high efficiency devices. The GaP/Si heterointerface and properties of GaP grown on silicon were studied. Additionally, a substrate removal process was developed which allows the formation of high quality free standing GaP films and has wide applications in the field of optics.

Finally, the effect of defects at the interface of the amorphous silicon heterojuction cell was studied. Excellent voltages, and thus efficiencies, are achievable with this system, but the voltage is very sensitive to growth conditions. We directly measured lateral transport lengths at the heterointerface on the order of tens to hundreds of microns, which allows carriers to travel towards any defects that are present and recombine. This measurement adds to the understanding of these types of high efficiency devices and may aid in future device design.

The statistical bootstrap model

A review is presented of the statistical bootstrap model of Hagedorn and Frautschi. This model is an attempt to apply the methods of statistical mechanics in high-energy physics, while treating all hadron states (stable or unstable) on an equal footing. A statistical calculation of the resonance spectrum on this basis leads to an exponentially rising level density ρ(m) ~ cm^-3 e^βom at high masses.

In the present work, explicit formulae are given for the asymptotic dependence of the level density on quantum numbers, in various cases. Hamer and Frautschi's model for a realistic hadron spectrum is described.

A statistical model for hadron reactions is then put forward, analogous to the Bohr compound nucleus model in nuclear physics, which makes use of this level density. Some general features of resonance decay are predicted. The model is applied to the process of NN annihilation at rest with overall success, and explains the high final state pion multiplicity, together with the low individual branching ratios into two-body final states, which are characteristic of the process. For more general reactions, the model needs modification to take account of correlation effects. Nevertheless it is capable of explaining the phenomenon of limited transverse momenta, and the exponential decrease in the production frequency of heavy particles with their mass, as shown by Hagedorn. Frautschi's results on "Ericson fluctuations" in hadron physics are outlined briefly. The value of β_o required in all these applications is consistently around [120 MeV]^-1 corresponding to a "resonance volume" whose radius is very close to ƛ_π. The construction of a "multiperipheral cluster model" for high-energy collisions is advocated.