Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

Moderating effects of management control systems and innovation on performance. Simple methods for correcting the effects of measurement error for interaction effects in small samples

In the accounting literature, interaction or moderating effects are usually assessed by means of OLS regression and summated rating scales are constructed to reduce measurement error bias. Structural equation models and two-stage least squares regression could be used to completely eliminate this bias, but large samples are needed. Partial Least Squares are appropriate for small samples but do not correct measurement error bias. In this article, disattenuated regression is discussed as a small sample alternative and is illustrated on data of Bisbe and Otley (in press) that examine the interaction effect of innovation and style of use of budgets on performance. Sizeable differences emerge between OLS and disattenuated regression

Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors

This paper proposes and tests a new framework for weighting recursive out-of-sample prediction errors according to their corresponding levels of in-sample estimation uncertainty. In essence, we show how to use the maximum possible amount of information from the sample in the evaluation of the prediction accuracy, by commencing the forecasts at the earliest opportunity and weighting the prediction errors. Via a Monte Carlo study, we demonstrate that the proposed framework selects the correct model from a set of candidate models considerably more often than the existing standard approach when only a small sample is available. We also show that the proposed weighting approaches result in tests of equal predictive accuracy that have much better sizes than the standard approach. An application to an exchange rate dataset highlights relevant differences in the results of tests of predictive accuracy based on the standard approach versus the framework proposed in this paper.

A finite sample improvement of the fixed effects estimator : applied to technical infficiency

The FE ('fixed effects') estimator of technical inefficiency performs poorly when N ('number of firms') is large and T ('number of time observations') is small. We propose estimators of both the firm effects and the inefficiencies, which have small sample gains compared to the traditional FE estimator. The estimators are based on nonparametric kernel regression of unordered variables, which includes the FE estimator as a special case. In terms of global conditional MSE ('mean square error') criterions, it is proved that there are kernel estimators which are efficient to the FE estimators of firm effects and inefficiencies, in finite samples. Monte Carlo simulations supports our theoretical findings and in an empirical example it is shown how the traditional FE estimator and the proposed kernel FE estimator lead to very different conclusions about inefficiency of Indonesian rice farmers.

New product development in brazilian technology-based small and medium enterprises

This article examines new product development (NPD) in small and medium-sized Brazilian enterprises (SMEs) in two technology-based industries: medical devices and process control automation devices. A conceptual model that categorizes factors that contribute to the success of a new product was established. The data were collected from a sample of 62 Brazilian SMEs. The conceptual model was tested to examine the relationships between NPD practices and new product success. Data analysis reveals that new product success in medical device companies is related to organizational characteristics such as NPD proficiency and marketing skills; while in process control automation device companies, they deal in a large degree with product differentiation, innovation and capability to analyze the targeted market. Due to the relatively small sample size, caution should be exercised when interpreting the results.

Sustainable development in Darjeeling Hills, India : ecological and socio-economic aspects for small-scale farmers with supportive observations from Kanagawa, Japan

Organic farming means a holistic application of agricultural land-use, hence, this study aimed to assess ecological and socio-economic aspects that show benefits of the strategy and achievements of organic farming in comparison to conventional farming in Darjeeling District, State of West Bengal, India and Kanagawa Prefecture/Kanto in Central Japan. The objective of this study has been empirically analysed on aspects of crop diversity, yield, income and sales prices in the two study regions, where 50 households each, i.e. in total 100 households were interviewed at farm-level. Therefore, the small sample size does not necessarily reflect the broad-scale of the use and benefit of organic farming in both regions. The problems faced in mountainous regions in terms of agriculture and livelihoods for small-scale farmers, which are most affected and dependant on their immediate environment, such as low yields, income and illegal felling leading to soil erosion and landslides, are analyzed. Furthermore, factors such as climate, soils, vegetation and relief equally play an important role for these farmers, in terms of land-use. To supplement and improve the income of farmers, local NGOs have introduced organic farming and high value organic cash crops such as ginger, tea, orange and cardamom and small income generating means (floriculture, apiary etc.). For non-certified and certified organic products the volume is given for India, while for Japan only certified organic production figures are given, as there are several definitions for organic in Japan. Hence, prior to the implementation of organic laws and standards, even reduced chemical input was sold as non-certified organic. Furthermore, the distribution and certification system of both countries are explained in detail, including interviews with distribution companies and cooperatives. Supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are helpful and practical suggestions for organic farmers in Darjeeling District. Most of these are simple and applicable soil management measures, natural insect repelling applications and describe the direct marketing system practiced in Japan. The former two include compost, intercropping, Effective Microorganisms (EM), clover, rice husk charcoal and wood vinegar. More supportive observations have been made at organic and biodynamic tea estates in Darjeeling District, which use citronella, neem, marigold, leguminous and soil binding plants for soil management and natural insect control. Due to the close ties between farmers and consumers in Japan, certification is often neither necessary nor wanted by the producers. They have built a confidence relationship with their customers; thus, such measures are simply not required. Another option is group certification, instead of the expensive individual certification. The former aims at lower costs for farmers who have formed a cooperative or a farmers' group. Consumer awareness for organic goods is another crucial aspect to help improve the situation of organic farmers. Awareness is slightly more advanced in Kanto than in Darjeeling District, as it is improved due to the close (sales) ties between farmers and consumers in Kanto. Interviews conducted with several such cooperatives and companies underline the positive system of TEIKEI. The introduction of organic farming in the study regions has shown positive effects for those involved, even though it still in its beginning stages in Darjeeling District. This study was only partly able to assess the benefits of organic agriculture at its present level for Darjeeling District, while more positively for the organic farmers of Kanto. The organic farming practice needs further improvement, encouragement and monitoring for the Darjeeling District farmers by locals, consumers, NGOs and politicians. The supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are a small step in this direction, showing how, simple soil improvements and thus, yield and income increases, as well as direct sales options can enhance the livelihood of organic farmers without destroying their environment and natural resources.

Power Calculations for Preclinical Studies Using a K-Sample Rank Test and the Lehmann Alternative Hypothesis

Power calculations in a small sample comparative study, with a continuous outcome measure, are typically undertaken using the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic. When the sample size is small, this asymptotic result can be a poor approximation. An alternative approach, using a rank based test statistic, is an exact power calculation. When the number of groups is greater than two, the number of calculations required to perform an exact power calculation is prohibitive. To reduce the computational burden, a Monte Carlo resampling procedure is used to approximate the exact power function of a k-sample rank test statistic under the family of Lehmann alternative hypotheses. The motivating example for this approach is the design of animal studies, where the number of animals per group is typically small.

Risk of non-small cell lung cancer and the cytochrome P4501A1 Ile462Val polymorphism

Objective: The Ile462Val substitution in the cytochrome P450 1A1 gene (CYP1A1) results in increased enzymatic activity. Preliminary data suggesting a link between this polymorphism and lung cancer risk in Caucasians are inconsistent, reflecting small sample sizes and the relatively low frequency of the variant. Methods: The data set consisted of 1050 primary non-small cell lung cancer cases and 581 controls, a large homogenous population designed specifically to address previous inconsistencies. Patients were genotyped using a PCR-RFLP technique. Results: Carriers of the valine allele, CYP1A1*2C, (Ile/Val or Val/Val genotypes) were significantly over-represented in non-small cell lung cancer compared to controls (OR=1.9; 95% CI=1.2-2.9; p=0.005) when adjusted for confounders, particularly in women (OR=4.6; 95% CI=1.7-12.4; p=0.003). The valine variant was statistically significantly over-represented in cases of lung cancer younger than the median age (64 years) (OR=2.5; 95% CI=1.3-4.8; p=0.005) and cases with less than the median cumulative tobacco-smoke exposure (46 pack-years) (OR=2.4; 95% CI=1.3-4.7; p=0.007). Conclusions: These new data establish an association between the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and the risk of developing non-small cell lung cancer, especially among women.

Small-scale randomized controlled trials need more powerful methods of mediational analysis than the Baron-Kenny method

Objective: To devise more-effective physical activity interventions, the mediating mechanisms yielding behavioral change need to be identified. The Baron-Kenny method is most commonly used. but has low statistical power and May not identify mechanisms of behavioral change in small-to-medium size Studies. More powerful statistical tests are available, Study Design and Setting: Inactive adults (N = 52) were randomized to either a print or a print-plus-telephone intervention. Walking and exercise-related social support Were assessed at baseline, after file intervention, and 4 weeks later. The Baron-Kenny and three alternative methods of mediational analysis (Freedman-Schatzkin; MacKinnon et al.: bootstrap method) were used to examine the effects of social support on initial behavior change and maintenance. Results: A significant mediational effect of social support on initial behavior change was indicated by the MacKinnon et al., bootstrap. and. marginally. Freedman-Schatzkin methods, but not by the Baron-Kenny method. No significant mediational effecl of social support on maintenance of walking was found. Conclusions: Methodologically rigorous intervention studies to identify mediators of change in physical activity are costly and labor intensive, and may not be feasible with large samples. The Use of statistically powerful tests of mediational effects in small-scale studies can inform the development of more effective interventions. (C) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marketing in indigenous and Asian small firms in the West Midlands.

This study is concerned with examining the application of marketing during the start-up, development and growth of small firms in the West Midlands. As an exploratory study, it provides evidence to support the central hypothesis of the thesis that whilst many small firms have the potential to progress through to the successful growth stage of development, they fail to do so because of their owner-managers' orientation towards production and selling and because they do not apply formal marketing during the initial stages of business development. A comparative approach to studying marketing in indigenous and Asian firms is adopted in an attempt to fill a gap in the literature on the characteristics and differences in the formation and development processes of these two groups of enterprises. The study has three main objectives and is based on qualitative research techniques of in-depth interviews, case studies and longitudinal studies among sixty-six firms representing the key activities of the small firms sector of the local economy. Firstly, it investigates owner-managers' orientation in developing and managing new and established businesses and explores the sources of, and changes in their orientation during the various stages of development. Secondly, it assesses the owner-manager's awareness and understanding of what constitutes the marketing function and investigates what aspects of marketing are applied during the different stages of business development. Finally, the study monitors and evaluates the outcomes and implications of applying formal marketing techniques in a small sample of firms over a period of two years. The thesis concludes by using the findings of the study to contribute additions to existing models of growth and by proposing new models of evolution and application of marketing in small firms.

Prognostic Value Of Dna And Mrna E6/e7 Of Human Papillomavirus In The Evolution Of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 2.

This study aimed at evaluating whether human papillomavirus (HPV) groups and E6/E7 mRNA of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45 are prognostic of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 outcome in women with a cervical smear showing a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This cohort study included women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 who were followed up for 12 months, with cervical smear and colposcopy performed every three months. Women with a negative or low-risk HPV status showed 100% CIN 2 regression. The CIN 2 regression rates at the 12-month follow-up were 69.4% for women with alpha-9 HPV versus 91.7% for other HPV species or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). For women with HPV 16, the CIN 2 regression rate at the 12-month follow-up was 61.4% versus 89.5% for other HPV types or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). The CIN 2 regression rate was 68.3% for women who tested positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA versus 82.0% for the negative results, but this difference was not statistically significant. The expectant management for women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 and previous cytological tests showing LSIL exhibited a very high rate of spontaneous regression. HPV 16 is associated with a higher CIN 2 progression rate than other HPV infections. HPV E6/E7 mRNA is not a prognostic marker of the CIN 2 clinical outcome, although this analysis cannot be considered conclusive. Given the small sample size, this study could be considered a pilot for future larger studies on the role of predictive markers of CIN 2 evolution.

Clinicopathological And Immunohistochemical Evaluation Of Oral And Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma In Chilean Population.

In oral and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC and OPSCC) exist an association between clinical and histopathological parameters with cell proliferation, basal lamina, connective tissue degradation and surrounding stroma markers. We evaluated these associations in Chilean patients. A convenience sample of 37 cases of OCSCC (n=16) and OPSCC (n=21) was analyzed clinically (TNM, clinical stage) and histologically (WHO grade of differentiation, pattern of tumor invasion). We assessed the expression of p53, Ki67, HOXA1, HOXB7, type IV collagen (ColIV) and carcinoma-associated fibroblast (α-SMA-positive cells). Additionally we conducted a univariate/bivariate analysis to assess the relationship of these variables with survival rates. Males were mostly affected (56.2% OCSCC, 76.2% OPSCC). Patients were mainly diagnosed at III/IV clinical stages (68.8% OCSCC, 90.5% OPSCC) with a predominantly infiltrative pattern invasion (62.9% OCSCC, 57.1% OPSCC). Significant association between regional lymph nodes (N) and clinical stage with OCSCC-HOXB7 expression (Chi-Square test P < 0.05) was observed. In OPSCC a statistically significant association exists between p53, Ki67 with gender (Chi-Square test P < 0.05). In OCSCC and OPSCC was statistically significant association between ki67 with HOXA1, HOXB7, and between these last two antigens (Pearson's Correlation test P < 0.05). Furthermore OPSCC-p53 showed significant correlation when it was compared with α-SMA (Kendall's Tau-c test P < 0.05). Only OCSCC-pattern invasion and OPSCC-primary tumor (T) pattern resulted associated with survival at the end of the follow up period (Chi-Square Likelihood Ratio, P < 0.05). Clinical, histological and immunohistochemical features are similar to seen in other countries. Cancer proliferation markers were associated strongly from each other. Our sample highlights prognostic value of T and pattern of invasion, but the conclusions may be limited and should be considered with caution (small sample). Many cases were diagnosed in the advanced stages of the disease, which suggests that the diagnosis of OCSCC and OPSCC is made late.

A fala nas diferentes modalidades de reabilitação oral protética em idosos

TEMA: a produção da fala nas modalidades de reabilitação oral protética. OBJETIVO: verificar se o tipo de reabilitação oral interfere na produção da fala. MÉTODO: 36 idosos (média = 68 anos), divididos em 3 grupos, foram avaliados: 13 com dentes naturais (A), 13 com prótese total mucosossuportada superior e inferior (B) e 10 com prótese total mucosossuportada superior e implantossuportada inferior (C). A estabilidade das próteses foi avaliada por um dentista e amostras de fala foram analisadas por 5 fonoaudiólogos. Para determinar a freqüência de alteração dos sons da fala utilizou-se o cálculo da Porcentagem de Consoantes Corretas (PCC). RESULTADOS: observou-se poucos casos com alteração de fala, com maior freqüência no grupo C (23,08%), sendo a articulação travada presente em todos os grupos, a redução dos movimentos labiais em dois grupos (A e B) e a articulação exagerada e a falta de controle salivar em um dos grupos (C e B). Quanto à PCC, menor valor foi observado para os fones linguodentais nos grupos B e C (maior ocorrência de alteração), seguido dos fones alveolares, predominando casos sem alteração no grupo A, contrariamente aos demais grupos, sendo a projeção lingual e o ceceio as alterações mais encontradas. Não houve diferença entre os grupos e a maioria do grupo B estava com a prótese inferior insatisfatória, não havendo associação entre alteração de fala e prótese insatisfatória. CONCLUSÃO: apesar da amostra pequena, indivíduos reabilitados com prótese total apresentam alteração nos fones linguodentais e alveolares e o tipo de prótese, bem como a estabilidade desta parece não interferir na produção da fala.

Estratégias de pré-concentração em eletroforese capilar (CE): parte 1. Manipulação da velocidade eletroforética do analito

Capillary electrophoresis has become a well-established and routine-based separation technique. It is based on the differences between charged analyte mobility in aqueous or organic electrolytes. Its major limitation is the sensitivity due to small sample injection volumes and the narrow diameter of the capillaries, especially when UV detection is used. There are a number of ways to increase the concentration sensitivity. This report shows some on-line preconcentration strategies to perform it in free solution capillary electrophoresis that are based on manipulation of the analyte electrophoretic velocity during the sample introduction (stacking, field amplification and transient isotachophoresis).

Relationships of blood lead to calcium, iron, and vitamin C intakes in Brazilian pregnant women

Background & aims. This study aimed to determine the relationship between blood lead concentrations and calcium, iron and vitamin C dietary intakes of pregnant women. Methods. Included in the study were 55 women admitted to a hospital, for delivery, from June to August 2002. A food frequency questionnaire was applied to determine calcium, iron and vitamin C intakes, and a general questionnaire to obtain data on demographic-socioeconomic condition, obstetric history, smoking habit, and alcohol intake. Blood lead and haemoglobin were determined, respectively, by atomic absorption spectrometry and by the haemoglobinometer HemoCue®. Multiple linear regression models were used to determine the relationship between blood lead and calcium, iron and vitamin C intakes, and haemoglobin levels, controlling for confounders. Results. The final model of the regression analysis detected an inverse relationship between blood lead and age of the women (p=0.011), haemoglobin (p=0.001), vitamin C (p=0.012), and calcium intake (p<0.001) (R2=0.952). One hundred percent, 98.2% and 43.6% of the women were below the adequate intake (AI) for calcium, and below the recommended dietary allowances (RDA) for iron, and vitamin C, respectively. Conclusion. Despite the small sample size, the results of this study suggest that maternal age, haemoglobin, vitamin C intake, and calcium intake may interfere with blood concentrations of lead